Brexit discussion thread IV

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/pritipatel4pm/status/1026159956301684737

Portugal, Switzerland, Denmark, San Marino and Austria, among others, would dispute the claim, while France is at least as old as England.

EdgeCase

This is more of the self-assured mythology of the UK being special and different. It fell apart in 1922, largely due to inability to devolve power, rampant sectarianism and a rigid class system that effectively meant that Ireland was never treated as valued or equal part of the UK.

Then it sat idly by for decades as Northern Ireland turned utterly toxic and spiralled into one of the most bloody conflicts ever seen in postwar western Europe. They just like to imagine that didn't occur in the UK. It did. The DUP and Ulster loyalism is an aspect of UK and British culture. It's just not one the majority of English people are very comfortable about embracing.

The UK also had horrific strikes and turmoil and extreme social unrest in the 1970s and 80s and was rescued by an IMF bailout in the 70s too.

Meanwhile it retains vestiges of a bygone era lords and bishops in the upper part of its legislature. Something not seen in many modern democracies.

Selling yourself this myth that the UK is somehow a bastion of all things virtuous is delusional. It's usually a decent country and it has a good level of democracy but it's far, far from perfect. Very few countries are but most are willing to accept that they aren't!

Pompous lecturing about notions of being superior is just more of the same.

If you don't understand your history, you're destined to learn nothing from it as repeat similar mistakes.

trellheim

Penny Mordaunt being quoted by Priti Patel is two monkeys grooming each other in the zoo, tbh.

But do remember this is not for external consumption


Look at the major European newspapers - mostly focused elsewhere, Merkels off to Spain to hobnob on EMU

Die Welt is calling - rightly - BoJo - a clown over the niqab article in the torygraph.

blinding

Britain has to be lauded in how it has respected Democracy despite all the vested interests doing their best to undermine it .

52% in the referendum ; 17.4 million people . The most that have ever voted for anything in Britain .

84% in the following General Election voted for Parties that said they would respect the Brexit Referendum result .

I know its a no brainer but Respecting Democracy is still a Beautiful Thing .

BonnieSituation

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sterling seems to have fallen considerably in recent days:

https://xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=EUR&To=GBP

It's actually been floating around 1.12 (1.117 as it stands) the last couple of weeks. I've actually been shocked at how stable it's been considering. As someone said before summer is having a calming effect. Movement should start kicking in come end of the month.

I've a lot of skin in the sterling game with a house sale in Manchester going through ATM. I'm just hoping it at least keeps where it has been the last month-ish.

Inquitus

blinding wrote: »

Britain has to be lauded in how it has respected Democracy despite all the vested interests doing their best to undermine it .

52% in the referendum ; 17.4 million people . The most that have ever voted for anything in Britain .

84% in the following General Election voted for Parties that said they would respect the Brexit Referendum result .

I know its a no brainer but Respecting Democracy is still a Beautiful Thing .

What a load of bollox

Trasna1

flatty wrote: »

I honestly think even as a reluctant UK resident, that the chequers deal or any such deal will simply be a running sore. It would be best for everyone, not least the UK youth, that brexit be hard, fast and unequivocal, so it's resultant damage is equally hard fast and unequivocal, otherwise fox, Davies, gove, jrm, Boris et al will have the opportunity to hide and to obfuscate and to pretend it's not happening. The best result for all in the medium term is political upheaval in the UK, and a new generation taking the reins, and longer term, hopefully, re integration with Europe. Any fudge will simply draw this out. I hope the eu bend not one jot, and put their energy instead into PR aimed at the UK youth, if they are even inclined to try.

That level of political maturity, that would allow Britains public and politicians to realise their folly and come back is unlikely - no evidence for that as even an undercurrent.

What is more likely is that an external will be scapegoated, with politicians and the public doubling down.

The fact that this decision was set in train by the public makes it near politically impossible to call out. It's very hard to get the mob to accept it was wrong.

The blame for this mess lies squarely with those that voted for it, the public should not be absolved.

BonnieSituation

trellheim wrote: »

Penny Mordaunt being quoted by Priti Patel is two monkeys grooming each other in the zoo, tbh.

But do remember this is not for external consumption


Look at the major European newspapers - mostly focused elsewhere, Merkels off to Spain to hobnob on EMU

Die Welt is calling - rightly - BoJo - a clown over the niqab article in the torygraph.

That Priti Patel 4 PM account is hardly her genuine account?

ancapailldorcha

blinding wrote: »

Britain has to be lauded in how it has respected Democracy despite all the vested interests doing their best to undermine it .

52% in the referendum ; 17.4 million people . The most that have ever voted for anything in Britain .

84% in the following General Election voted for Parties that said they would respect the Brexit Referendum result .

I know its a no brainer but Respecting Democracy is still a Beautiful Thing .

Permabanned.

blanch152

Came across this today:

https://igees.gov.ie/publications/economic-analysis/brexit/


someone may have posted it already, but it is a link to Irish government studies on the effects of Brexit on the Irish economy.

Some of it dates back to 2016, so may not be that useful, but the March 2018 report on imports makes for fascinating reading.

Folkstonian

flatty wrote: »

I honestly think even as a reluctant UK resident, that the chequers deal or any such deal will simply be a running sore. It would be best for everyone, not least the UK youth, that brexit be hard, fast and unequivocal, so it's resultant damage is equally hard fast and unequivocal, otherwise fox, Davies, gove, jrm, Boris et al will have the opportunity to hide and to obfuscate and to pretend it's not happening. The best result for all in the medium term is political upheaval in the UK, and a new generation taking the reins, and longer term, hopefully, re integration with Europe. Any fudge will simply draw this out. I hope the eu bend not one jot, and put their energy instead into PR aimed at the UK youth, if they are even inclined to try.

I expect you would have a hard time persuading British voters that it is in their best interests to go through an utterly destructive and completely crippling crash-out Brexit in March of next year.

It would be an act of malice and a conspicuous lie to try and convince people to push for a no deal Brexit that devestates high-tech industry, crushes the finance sector, ruins public services, maims terribly air and sea ports and shatters the economy to the point of no return.

I still think that the best solution to this all is for Brexit to be abandoned, for Britain to retain its very considerable clout inside the EU, to keep contributing to the advancement and security of Europe, to make the most of the single market, etcetera, but there are too many millions of people who are still prepared to press on regardless with Brexit for that to be a realistic possibility and I accept that.

So the next best thing is a deal born out of a sane and practical set of compromises and I’m quietly expectant that the U.K. government understand this too and a deal will be reached.

This may be more through fortune and circumstance than judgment, but right now how we get there isn’t that important.

It’s got to be a deal that takes us out of the EU with a comprehensive deal on trade that makes compromises with ECJ oversight in certain areas, and makes contributions to stay aligned with certain EU agencies.

I feel only an outcome like that to this nightmarish negotiation process will appease enough remainers and enough leavers to facilitate some harmony and concurrence again in British society.

In terms of what I feel the quoted poster is hoping for - a Britain so soundly crushed and humiliated by a disastrous Brexit that it is forced to trudge back to Brussels and beg for a second chance in ten years - even as a remainer I could never honestly feel comfortable about that.

The intervening period would be too damaging, too distressing, and see an exhausted and deferential U.K. return to Europe unable to have any real positive impact, maybe apart from acting once more as the land bridge for Irish goods (maybe that’s the quoted poster’s angle?) I really can’t see how anyone in Europe, other than those who fervently believe in the concept of more Europe and total integration actually benefit?

Just one example of how Britain leads the way inside the EU is it’s capacity and willingness to hold the line, as best it can, against Russian hostility both diplomatically and in cyber warfare. This is something I think Brits should be genuinely proud of, is of great benefit to lots of other smaller Eu member states without the same resources and expertise to counter all that Russia does to harm us all, and will be lost both when Britain is wrenched out of Eu defence programmes, and will be lost permanently if a Brexit dismantles the economy to the extent that funding for defence and security is completely cut if the quoted poster gets his wish!! Maybe it would have been nice for this one aspect of our relationship with the EU, amongst all other things, to have been used more often by the government and media to explain to the British electorate how we could feel good not just about the benefits but our contributions. All ifs, buts and maybes now however..

Rjd2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That Priti Patel 4 PM account is hardly her genuine account?

Its a fan account, can't understand how would anyone would think otherwise tbh.

https://twitter.com/patel4witham?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Is her official one.

trellheim

dammit fell into the trap of twitter fan accounts sorry folks

Bit cynical

Folkstonian wrote: »

In terms of what I feel the quoted poster is hoping for - a Britain so soundly crushed and humiliated by a disastrous Brexit that it is forced to trudge back to Brussels and beg for a second chance in ten years - even as a remainer I could never honestly feel comfortable about that.

A return to the EU is more likely in the event of a negotiated exit where the UK remains partly within certain EU institutions. Over time, Britain would gradually cede more and more powers to the EU in return for increased access to markets. Eventually they would be out of the EU in name only, and the final move into the EU proper (e.g. to gain voting rights) would be easy.

A clean break exit, on the other hand would cause disruption initially but over time the idea of the UK being outside the EU would be the accepted norm. Even if economists believe that being outside the EU continues to cost the UK, the public will view economic performance in terms of Labour policy/Tory policy and so forth. Rejoining, therefore, will be seen as something odd. Ironically, perhaps, the more disruption they experience in the initial phases, the less likely they will want to rejoin: "why, after the sacrifices we made to break free, do we want to join again?"

This is why I disagree with those who justify Ireland's stance - "no border or no deal" - on the basis that no deal will probably have the UK begging to return to full EU membership within a very short time.

lawred2

blinding wrote: »

Britain has to be lauded in how it has respected Democracy despite all the vested interests doing their best to undermine it .

52% in the referendum ; 17.4 million people . The most that have ever voted for anything in Britain .

84% in the following General Election voted for Parties that said they would respect the Brexit Referendum result .

I know its a no brainer but Respecting Democracy is still a Beautiful Thing .

Fairly sure I've read that from you in this thread already. A number of times.

Folkstonian

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

@Folkstonian

So how did countering Russian interference work out during Brexit referendum? How did you stand up to Russia when your citizens were attacked by nasty and rare Russian chemical weapons?

The uk was and is being taken for a ride by Russia so your post rings hollow, but it beats "democracy is beautiful" one liners seen from now banned Putinbot

I have a recreational interest in security and defence, and more specifically cyber warfare and security. You might do some reading (academic articles are a good place to start) into U.K. defensive and offensive cyber capabilities, which are currently the most advanced in the EU. Britain does lots of good work in this field, which for many reasons (largely because they don’t care) goes unheralded by the mainstream press.

Moreover the U.K. is still considered a particularly valuable ally by lots of European countries for its acute understanding of how the russian establishment operates, and its ability to disrupt and deter kremlin-backed espionage - this is of course partially because of the skill base that emerged in Britain during the Cold War that has been quite effectively maintained despite the switch of focus to international terrorism in the security forces

And also, let’s not forget the pivotal role Britain has played in the programme of sanctions against Russia, targeting both the economy as a whole and lots of shady figures at the heart of the kleptocracy, which has left the Russian economy in a bit of a mess, to put it lightly.

All this information is widely available in books and journal articles online. But it’s fine, you carry on attempting to undermine my posts from a position of apparent ignorance.

brickster69

Essential drug supplies may not be available to EU citizens because of a no deal Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/07/eu-patients-may-miss-out-on-medicines-in-no-deal-brexit-says-astrazeneca

Imreoir2

blinding wrote: »

Britain has to be lauded in how it has respected Democracy despite all the vested interests doing their best to undermine it .

52% in the referendum ; 17.4 million people . The most that have ever voted for anything in Britain .

84% in the following General Election voted for Parties that said they would respect the Brexit Referendum result .

I know its a no brainer but Respecting Democracy is still a Beautiful Thing .

Conning the electorate, and inflicting poverty and hardship for the sake of ideological purity on the other hand, are far from "Beautiful Things".

Capt'n Midnight

Gerry T wrote: »

One of the problems for aviation is airbus UK makes wings for all it's aircraft, post a hard brexit those parts can't be used on new planes or spares. Not until the UK gets their aviation sector set up for certification.
Would the EU a low those parts to be shipped to the EU and have them go through a certification process in the EU

The design is certified so that's not the issue. Transfer pricing might reduce some of the effect of tariffs too.


Needing warehouses to store parts because you can't move stuff quiickly enough for "just in time" is going to cost lots.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45087684

Stockpiling parts to mitigate the impact of a no-deal Brexit would cost Bombardier's Belfast business up to £30m, the plane maker has warned.

...
Mr Ryan said the firm will begin arrangements to stockpile goods by the end of the year if it believes that will be necessary after Brexit.

Rinse and repeat for all the UK's high tech companies.

cml387

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Yet London remains money laundering central for Russian oligarchs, actions (or lack of, despite continued undermining of "beautiful democracy" by Putin) speak louder than words.

I would imagine that some of the older spooks in the intelligence services are appalled at how Russian influence, bought by the oligarchs, now penetrates the highest reaches of the British establishment.

Any modern Karla must be looking at how easy it was to compromise a state . Just fill their mouths with gold.

Anthracite

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Yet London remains money laundering central for Russian oligarchs, actions (or lack of, despite continued undermining of "beautiful democracy" by Putin) speak louder than words.

Yeah, the UK as the bulwark against Russia rings a bit hollow when you consider that Arron Banks, Russia's Mr. Toad, has just played a leading role in yanking the UK out of the EU.

Working class heroes

blinding wrote: »

Britain has to be lauded in how it has respected Democracy despite all the vested interests doing their best to undermine it .

52% in the referendum ; 17.4 million people . The most that have ever voted for anything in Britain .

84% in the following General Election voted for Parties that said they would respect the Brexit Referendum result .

I know its a no brainer but Respecting Democracy is still a Beautiful Thing .

Actually you are wrong. 17.4 million(64%)voted to stay in the EEC in 1975. Proportionally a lot higher. Wouldn’t it be a beautiful thing if that vote was respected, eh?:)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Communities_membership_referendum,_1975

flatty

Folkstonian wrote: »

I expect you would have a hard time persuading British voters that it is in their best interests to go through an utterly destructive and completely crippling crash-out Brexit in March of next year.

It would be an act of malice and a conspicuous lie to try and convince people to push for a no deal Brexit that devestates high-tech industry, crushes the finance sector, ruins public services, maims terribly air and sea ports and shatters the economy to the point of no return.

I still think that the best solution to this all is for Brexit to be abandoned, for Britain to retain its very considerable clout inside the EU, to keep contributing to the advancement and security of Europe, to make the most of the single market, etcetera, but there are too many millions of people who are still prepared to press on regardless with Brexit for that to be a realistic possibility and I accept that.

So the next best thing is a deal born out of a sane and practical set of compromises and I’m quietly expectant that the U.K. government understand this too and a deal will be reached.

This may be more through fortune and circumstance than judgment, but right now how we get there isn’t that important.

It’s got to be a deal that takes us out of the EU with a comprehensive deal on trade that makes compromises with ECJ oversight in certain areas, and makes contributions to stay aligned with certain EU agencies.

I feel only an outcome like that to this nightmarish negotiation process will appease enough remainers and enough leavers to facilitate some harmony and concurrence again in British society.

In terms of what I feel the quoted poster is hoping for - a Britain so soundly crushed and humiliated by a disastrous Brexit that it is forced to trudge back to Brussels and beg for a second chance in ten years - even as a remainer I could never honestly feel comfortable about that.

The intervening period would be too damaging, too distressing, and see an exhausted and deferential U.K. return to Europe unable to have any real positive impact, maybe apart from acting once more as the land bridge for Irish goods (maybe that’s the quoted poster’s angle?) I really can’t see how anyone in Europe, other than those who fervently believe in the concept of more Europe and total integration actually benefit?

Just one example of how Britain leads the way inside the EU is it’s capacity and willingness to hold the line, as best it can, against Russian hostility both diplomatically and in cyber warfare. This is something I think Brits should be genuinely proud of, is of great benefit to lots of other smaller Eu member states without the same resources and expertise to counter all that Russia does to harm us all, and will be lost both when Britain is wrenched out of Eu defence programmes, and will be lost permanently if a Brexit dismantles the economy to the extent that funding for defence and security is completely cut if the quoted poster gets his wish!! Maybe it would have been nice for this one aspect of our relationship with the EU, amongst all other things, to have been used more often by the government and media to explain to the British electorate how we could feel good not just about the benefits but our contributions. All ifs, buts and maybes now however..

You talk of standing against Russia. I would look on the recent govt actions as cack handed virtue signalling which has actually achieved nothing bar distracting the eye for a period.
Furthermore you talk of an honorable and brave lone and principled stand against Russia, but cannot square this with the complete dismissal/head in the sand-fingers in the ears approach by teresa may and the tories to obvious Russian interference in the brexit vote.
Lastly, you, like the rest of the UK fail to grasp that there really is no negotiation to be had here. If Britain wants to trade with Europe, it must do so on Europe's terms. That is all. The main block to this is the three red line stance which is entirely and solely a construct of teresa mays bigotry.
That generation of opportunists, cowards and xenophobes needs to be swept aside, and a hard brexit will facilitate that.

Spanish Eyes

Hi all, and waves....

Regarding EASA and flights. Can someone explain to me if UK is out of EASA will they be able to block flights into UK and over their airspace also?

I am totally confused here. So sorry. But it is something that my British cousins (Leavers to the fekkin core) keep telling me. Might be British hubris again but I need a killer reply!

blanch152

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Hi all, and waves....

Regarding EASA and flights. Can someone explain to me if UK is out of EASA will they be able to block flights into UK and over their airspace also?

I am totally confused here. So sorry. But it is something that my British cousins (Leavers to the fekkin core) keep telling me. Might be British hubris again but I need a killer reply!

Who cares?

Flights to Ireland will just take a half-hour longer from the Continent and nobody will be able to fly in and out of the UK. Their loss, not ours.

trellheim

That generation of opportunists, cowards and xenophobes needs to be swept aside, and a hard brexit will facilitate that.

Right. And that's the correct line of rhetoric to use here is it ? The amount of Irish people who will have a really bad time for your 'sweeping aside' both here and in the UK.

It may come as a shock to some here but a deal is massively in Ireland's interest.

BonnieSituation

trellheim wrote: »

Right. And that's the correct line of rhetoric to use here is it ? The amount of Irish people who will have a really bad time for your 'sweeping aside' both here and in the UK.

It may come as a shock to some here but a deal is massively in Ireland's interest.

Short-term interest imo

Imreoir2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Hi all, and waves....

Regarding EASA and flights. Can someone explain to me if UK is out of EASA will they be able to block flights into UK and over their airspace also?

I am totally confused here. So sorry. But it is something that my British cousins (Leavers to the fekkin core) keep telling me. Might be British hubris again but I need a killer reply!

Access to airspace is governed by an older pre-EU agreement that the UK is party to in it's own right. When they leave the EU they will still be a party to that agreement and as such leaving the EU will not effect flights passing through UK airspace one way or the other. Planes can still fly over the UK, and land in the UK without issue, the problem is that any plane taking off from the UK will not have valid certification as this is delt with within an EU legal framework. Planes taking off from the UK will not be deemed safe to land normally outside the UK. UK pilots licences will also not be valid outside the UK without an agreement.

I'm not sure why they would want to block flights in their airspace, there is no reason to do so, but they could do so if they wanted to presumably, they are a soverign nation after all.

Folkstonian

flatty wrote: »

You talk of standing against Russia. I would look on the recent govt actions as cack handed virtue signalling which has actually achieved nothing bar distracting the eye for a period.
Furthermore you talk of an honorable and brave lone and principled stand against Russia, but cannot square this with the complete dismissal/head in the sand-fingers in the ears approach by teresa may and the tories to obvious Russian interference in the brexit vote.
Lastly, you, like the rest of the UK fail to grasp that there really is no negotiation to be had here. If Britain wants to trade with Europe, it must do so on Europe's terms. That is all. The main block to this is the three red line stance which is entirely and solely a construct of teresa mays bigotry.
That generation of opportunists, cowards and xenophobes needs to be swept aside, and a hard brexit will facilitate that.

I think maybe you underestimate the effect of sanctions post-Salisbury. By any account it has done serious damage to Russia’s abilities to conduct all kinds of espionage across the UK, whilst relentless waves of economic sanctions for the past 4 years have crippled the economy.

The point is, Britain does more than any other big player in Europe to take on the Russian threat (I’m looking firmly in Germany’s direction on that one) regardless of whether it gets it right every time or not.

The fact that wealthy Russian expatriates have been scrambling to get assets out of the uk in recent months demonstrates that the British response isn’t being taken lightly, at least.

Just a point about your views on Brexit - I don’t really know where you stand after having scrolled through your post history in this thread. They seem to have been subject to a quite erratic change in outlook.

Initially you recognised that the vote to leave was a close result and millions of people did not want to leave. I am one of them.

You agreed that a hard Brexit would have a catastrophic impact on the British economy and that it wasn’t hyperboly to state it would ruin many millions of lives up and down the country.

You showed satisfaction that the popular opinion in the U.K. was shifting towards, at the least, a softer Brexit and possibly even a second vote.

And yet in recent times, your own opinion has apparently shifted significantly, and, despite all the above, it almost seems by my reading of your posts that you are now hoping for the hardest and most calamitous Brexit possible, to ensure the breakup of the Union and all the difficulties and hardships that will go with it, to crudely make the people see how good they had it with Eu membership, with it now all in irretrievable pieces.

to me it’s quite unfortunate that anyone would desire that, given they fully understand the misery it will inflict on millions of people. Maybe I have misread the tone of your posts, I’m not sure. If i am wrong I apologise but that’s my honest perception.

I personally just want an outcome that limits the damage as much as possible at this stage.

I am still hopeful that compromises will be made by both sides. Obviously it is incumbent on the U.K. to be much more flexible with its red lines surrounding ECJ oversight and its relationship with the single market, but I wouldn’t be wholly certain the EU won’t be forced to move a little bit at the behest of national governments on its red lines to British involvement in collective security. It’s in everyone’s interest for Britain to be inside the tent in that respect and politicians in some countries (not least Germany) have started to say so.

I think the bluster about a no-deal being the most likely outcome is exactly that, bluster. The trends are generally quite clear and show that the U.K. government understand that no deal would be ruinous and isn’t an option, and Because of that I do retain a sense of positivity that one will be agreed.

Folkstonian

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Access to airspace is governed by an older pre-EU agreement that the UK is party to in it's own right. When they leave the EU they will still be a party to that agreement and as such leaving the EU will not effect flights passing through UK airspace one way or the other. Planes can still fly over the UK, and land in the UK without issue, the problem is that any plane taking off from the UK will not have valid certification as this is delt with within an EU legal framework. Planes taking off from the UK will not be deemed safe to land normally outside the UK. UK pilots licences will also not be valid outside the UK without an agreement.

I'm not sure why they would want to block flights in their airspace, there is no reason to do so, but they could do so if they wanted to presumably, they are a soverign nation after all.

Seems quite incredible to me that we could get to a stage where Britain, with such a prestigious history in aviation, could have air traffic controllers that are deemed unsafe, aircraft engineers that are be deemed unreliable, and licensed pilots (my sister having recently become a first officer at easyJet based at Gatwick after years of training and tens of thousands of our parents money spent!!) could be deemed unqualified.

But hey, that’s the madness people voted for.