Brexit discussion thread IV

breatheme

Brilliantly put. The UK are facing that right now. From the bloomberg article that was shared earlier in this thread:

“Our negotiations on our future relationship have reached an impasse,” May told Tory party members in a letter on Wednesday, published on the ConservativeHome website. She said the two options on offer from the EU -- a standard free-trade deal or membership of the customs union plus an extended version of the European Economic Area -- are “not acceptable to me, or to the United Kingdom.”

But it was always those two. The EU has always stated it would be either of the two. Just because the British public voted for Brexit (with no actual definition) doesn't mean the EU has to roll over and give them whatever they want.

The Swiss are another case entirely, and if such a vote came to pass, it could be disastrous for them. Interesting times, indeed.

Rhineshark

fash wrote: »

The reason for that is actually English migration into Wales: the Eastern part of Wales consists of a lot of English commuters and voted brexit. You can see the effect here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

Partially... I got looking into this regarding Welsh-speaking and Leave. I'm still on the fence even after all my messing around with maps of electoral constituencies vs language and/or poverty.

It's true that Gwynned and Ceredigion voted Remain, two of the strongest Welsh speaking regions. But Anglesey voted (close though!) to leave, as did Carmarthen with the same percentage of Welsh-speakers as Ceredigion. Conwy, Denbighshire also voted leave despite being in the mid-ranges for Welsh-speaking as did Powys. Well, nearly everywhere bar the first two mentioned. Right down the centre was all Leave, whether more or less "Welsh" (at least from the shorthand of "Welsh-speaking"). Cardiff, Monmouthshire and another near there voted Remain.

Poverty was surprisingly difficult to compare and my main takeaway was that Wales is in trouble. Monmouthshire was Remain and is counted as one of the wealthiest areas by income tax returns but that is heavily swung by relatively few wealthy people. In terms of child poverty, Wales as a whole averages around the low 30s %wise, higher than much of the rest of the UK. No particular correlation to remain/leave by the blue/yellow results, but the Leave vote was strong in the valleys which have been totally left behind with the loss of the old primary industries - much like northern England. And that vote was right across the board, including Welsh-speakers.

I dunno. I don't have an uber-strong correlation to work with, but I think there was more to it than just English settlement. I don't say it played no role though. Also, like the UK, there has been an uptick in both nationalism and intra-community tensions with minorities in particular, but it's mostly not quite the same as the specifically English nationalism over the border. England's reasons have swamped any Welsh voice though in the national row since.

I think the Wales vote was more complex than it looks and that the country has basically been ignored since the referendum just as it was before it. But the anger under the surface hasn't been appeased. I suspect eventually Westminster will be forced to take notice and the longer they ignore it, the more explosive that voice will be when it eventually gets heard.

flatty

breatheme wrote: »

Brilliantly put. The UK are facing that right now. From the bloomberg article that was shared earlier in this thread:

“Our negotiations on our future relationship have reached an impasse,” May told Tory party members in a letter on Wednesday, published on the ConservativeHome website. She said the two options on offer from the EU -- a standard free-trade deal or membership of the customs union plus an extended version of the European Economic Area -- are “not acceptable to me, or to the United Kingdom.”

But it was always those two. The EU has always stated it would be either of the two. Just because the British public voted for Brexit (with no actual definition) doesn't mean the EU has to roll over and give them whatever they want.

The Swiss are another case entirely, and if such a vote came to pass, it could be disastrous for them. Interesting times, indeed.

And there, in the may letter, we have it. Not acceptable to her, first and foremost. That's it. She has no idea whether it is acceptable to the rest of the country as she will do her utmost to prevent a vote on it. It is a dictatorship in all but name at present.

trellheim

The Swiss will be watching through the holes in the cheese very carefully what leeway Barnier offers the UK. This is a given.
CH is free to go its own way of course, but cakeism - especially on FOM - will not be acceptable AFAICs ( See Orban, Victor) plus a host of other countries who'd REALLY like to do FOM their own way.

enda1

EU Concession rumour from Business Insider

Say it aint so!

Though little chance of it passing through parliament, this will be falsely seized upon by the Brexiteers as a sign of the UK's superior diplomacy and tough negotiating strategy, further leading them down the steadfast no-compromise bottom-less pit.

ancapailldorcha

enda1 wrote: »

EU Concession rumour from Business Insider

Say it aint so!

Though little chance of it passing through parliament, this will be falsely seized upon by the Brexiteers as a sign of the UK's superior diplomacy and tough negotiating strategy, further leading them down the steadfast no-compromise bottom-less pit.

That's a huge concession. It's also the sort of cherrypicking the EU warned at the outset would not be permitted.

I can't see this getting through Parliament at all if it is more than just a rumor.

Akrasia

So basically, it would require the UK to accept the ECJ, all the EU environmental, social and customs regulations, in exchange, the EU would allow the UK to restrict freedom of movement for workers and residency rights of EU citizens in the UK.

TBH, I'd accept that. Let the UK become a 'vassal state' as the brexiteers call it and if they're too small minded to allow Polish, French, German etc workers in to benefit their own economy, let them off. I've got a feeling their VISA program would be very open to skilled workers from the EU anyway (and even the EU internal rules allow restrictions on free movement from the newer member states, it's just that most choose to not apply them)

There would still need to be agreement on the Irish border, so the only sensible way to police that would be an immigration border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect the Brexiteers wouldn't accept this deal and will still crash out of the EU, but at least then they can't claim that the EU didn't budge or 'treated them unfairly'

judeboy101

trellheim wrote: »

The Swiss will be watching through the holes in the cheese very carefully hi what leeway Barnier offers the UK. This is a given.
CH is free to go its own way of course, but cakeism - especially on FOM - will not be acceptable AFAICs ( See Orban, Victor) plus a host of other countries who'd REALLY like to do FOM their own way.

EU allows restriction of movement in member states. There's a whole region in Greece where women aren't allowed but men are. The EU allowed Greece to suspend FOM Here.

kunst nugget

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's a huge concession. It's also the sort of cherrypicking the EU warned at the outset would not be permitted.

I can't see this getting through Parliament at all if it is more than just a rumor.

If this were to actually happen, I couldn't see the EU lasting in its current state for more than a decade. The far right would have a rush of support in Europe preying on the fears of illegal immigration with the promise of blocking the freedom of movement for people in the same manner as the UK.

Nody

kunst nugget wrote: »

If this were to actually happen, I couldn't see the EU lasting in its current state for more than a decade. The far right would have a rush of support in Europe preying on the fears of illegal immigration with the promise of blocking the freedom of movement for people in the same manner as the UK.

This; it would be used as an excuse to get what is seen as the good parts (free trade) without potential negatives (ECJ on social & political decisions such as the Polish tampering with judge appointments or Bulgarian central banking) and that's before we start talking about things such as budget contributions etc. It would take EU back decades of developments and would create a two tier system (as well as questions what's the point of the EEA would be afterwards).

Rhineshark

Bit of an aside, but in the same way that our..hm..psychological number for Sterling/Euro is parity, the psychological number in the UK is 90p to €1. Which it now is.

That is going to hurt Irish exporters, especially small ones and ones that still rely on the UK market.

There's something going on with a lot of "large option expiries" today and tomorrow which I think mostly affects Euro/USD but looks like the markets bear watching at the moment.

catrionanic

Rhineshark wrote: »

Partially... I got looking into this regarding Welsh-speaking and Leave. I'm still on the fence even after all my messing around with maps of electoral constituencies vs language and/or poverty.

It's true that Gwynned and Ceredigion voted Remain, two of the strongest Welsh speaking regions. But Anglesey voted (close though!) to leave, as did Carmarthen with the same percentage of Welsh-speakers as Ceredigion. Conwy, Denbighshire also voted leave despite being in the mid-ranges for Welsh-speaking as did Powys. Well, nearly everywhere bar the first two mentioned. Right down the centre was all Leave, whether more or less "Welsh" (at least from the shorthand of "Welsh-speaking"). Cardiff, Monmouthshire and another near there voted Remain.

Poverty was surprisingly difficult to compare and my main takeaway was that Wales is in trouble. Monmouthshire was Remain and is counted as one of the wealthiest areas by income tax returns but that is heavily swung by relatively few wealthy people. In terms of child poverty, Wales as a whole averages around the low 30s %wise, higher than much of the rest of the UK. No particular correlation to remain/leave by the blue/yellow results, but the Leave vote was strong in the valleys which have been totally left behind with the loss of the old primary industries - much like northern England. And that vote was right across the board, including Welsh-speakers.

I dunno. I don't have an uber-strong correlation to work with, but I think there was more to it than just English settlement. I don't say it played no role though. Also, like the UK, there has been an uptick in both nationalism and intra-community tensions with minorities in particular, but it's mostly not quite the same as the specifically English nationalism over the border. England's reasons have swamped any Welsh voice though in the national row since.

I think the Wales vote was more complex than it looks and that the country has basically been ignored since the referendum just as it was before it. But the anger under the surface hasn't been appeased. I suspect eventually Westminster will be forced to take notice and the longer they ignore it, the more explosive that voice will be when it eventually gets heard.

I'm married into a family of Welsh-speakers in rural Pembrokeshire, and they voted a mixture of Remain and Leave. The only pattern amongst them was their age. The older generation voted Leave and the younger Remain, much like anywhere else in most of the UK.

Strazdas

Rhineshark wrote: »

Partially... I got looking into this regarding Welsh-speaking and Leave. I'm still on the fence even after all my messing around with maps of electoral constituencies vs language and/or poverty.

It's true that Gwynned and Ceredigion voted Remain, two of the strongest Welsh speaking regions. But Anglesey voted (close though!) to leave, as did Carmarthen with the same percentage of Welsh-speakers as Ceredigion. Conwy, Denbighshire also voted leave despite being in the mid-ranges for Welsh-speaking as did Powys. Well, nearly everywhere bar the first two mentioned. Right down the centre was all Leave, whether more or less "Welsh" (at least from the shorthand of "Welsh-speaking"). Cardiff, Monmouthshire and another near there voted Remain.

Poverty was surprisingly difficult to compare and my main takeaway was that Wales is in trouble. Monmouthshire was Remain and is counted as one of the wealthiest areas by income tax returns but that is heavily swung by relatively few wealthy people. In terms of child poverty, Wales as a whole averages around the low 30s %wise, higher than much of the rest of the UK. No particular correlation to remain/leave by the blue/yellow results, but the Leave vote was strong in the valleys which have been totally left behind with the loss of the old primary industries - much like northern England. And that vote was right across the board, including Welsh-speakers.

I dunno. I don't have an uber-strong correlation to work with, but I think there was more to it than just English settlement. I don't say it played no role though. Also, like the UK, there has been an uptick in both nationalism and intra-community tensions with minorities in particular, but it's mostly not quite the same as the specifically English nationalism over the border. England's reasons have swamped any Welsh voice though in the national row since.

I think the Wales vote was more complex than it looks and that the country has basically been ignored since the referendum just as it was before it. But the anger under the surface hasn't been appeased. I suspect eventually Westminster will be forced to take notice and the longer they ignore it, the more explosive that voice will be when it eventually gets heard.

I was reading an interesting article recently looking at why Wales voted Leave. They reckoned austerity was a big factor with Wales being one of the poorest regions in the UK. Another was the lack of a national press in Wales : they have no national newspapers and get nearly all their news via the right wing English press.

Attitudes towards immigrants are surprisingly hostile in Wales. Despite having a very low number of EU migrants, opinion polls show that Welsh people don't like them and think they are a drain on resources etc (the same paradox is repeated in the poor parts of England, low migrant numbers and yet the locals are hostile to them and blame them for being poor).

J Mysterio

I can't see the EU granting that concession. It weakens the EU hugely and would be the start of the end. Barnier needs to hold firm and call the UK's bluff.

Nody

Strazdas wrote: »

Attitudes towards immigrants are surprisingly hostile in Wales. Despite having a very low number of EU migrants, opinion polls show that Welsh people don't like them and think they are a drain on resources etc (the same paradox is repeated in the poor parts of England, low migrant numbers and yet the locals are hostile to them and blame them for being poor).

That's quite a common theme though; areas with low immigration tends to be most hostile to them. Add in a dose of popularism "It's not your fault it's those damn immigrants stealing your jobs & money" and well...

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

I can't see the EU granting that concession. It weakens the EU hugely and would be the start of the end. Barnier needs to hold firm and call the UK's bluff.

They won't. They are wide awake to the idea of being seen to give the UK any major concessions and how this would be spun by the Brexiteers and anti-EU people around Europe.

Rhineshark

The "Jersey model" story is spreading in British press (started from Times), and sterling's stabilised, but not much (anything that I've seen yet) internationally.

At best this is a UK leak to their press and probably not faithfully represented but looks like the Brexiters would kill it off anyway.

Calculated? FOM deal that the headbangers can't accept in return for Fox' threats last week. Odd when the Swiss are having issues with it though..

Or may be some eejit saying stuff they shouldn't.

breatheme

The Swiss would claw their way through the EU's institutions demanding the same deal.

I'll believe it when it comes from an actual EU source. It's too big of a concession to be true.

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

That's quite a common theme though; areas with low immigration tends to be most hostile to them. Add in a dose of popularism "It's not your fault it's those damn immigrants stealing your jobs & money" and well...

Exactly. Brighton, London, Cambridge, Oxford and other major cities all voted remain with the exception of Birmingham which was targeted with propaganda telling British-Asians that their relatives can't come over because of EU FOM.

Trasna1

Is silly season well and truly upon us? The rumour with regard to single market access looks more like kite flying than anything of substance and I seriously doubt the EU would commit to that in the political declaration - why would it when it can commit to something far more vague.

At the end of the day, the future relationship can be put off for another day, and that's what I suspect will happen. It suits no one to really deal with it now. The only real hurdle is NI. Once that is sorted, the pressure is off.

LuckyLloyd

We shouldn't hope cast news or links as true / false on the basis of our own biases. The question to ask here is about the source? Are Business Insider reliable on EU negotiations to date? Is Thomas Colson considered someone with good networks and access? Has he broken something important before?

Trasna1

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We shouldn't hope cast news or links as true / false on the basis of our own biases. The question to ask here is about the source? Are Business Insider reliable on EU negotiations to date? Is Thomas Colson considered someone with good networks and access? Has he broken something important before?

Indeed that is true, and our biases can easily interfere with our judgement. That said, conceding a red line that is also major fundamental policy shiftin the middle of the summer holidays, without exacting a major concession from the opposing side deserves to be looked at with an extremely skeptical eye.

If it's true, then the EU has indeed been well and truly played.

I'll wait until I hear what Tony Connolly has to say.

Rhineshark

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We shouldn't hope cast news or links as true / false on the basis of our own biases. The question to ask here is about the source? Are Business Insider reliable on EU negotiations to date? Is Thomas Colson considered someone with good networks and access? Has he broken something important before?

Business Insider? I might have picked this up wrong, but as I understood it, it was the Times that broke it (impression I got was government leak) and it was picked up by the rest of the press from there. I could be totally wrong on this though!

I'd be fairly okay with the BI, it doesn't particularly set off alarm bells for me - but I'm not sure it was the originator rather than one that picked it up later.

J Mysterio

Came across this podcast through Ian Dunt's Twitter (he has some involvenent in it).

It's very good: http://www.remainiacs.com

ArthurDayne

J Mysterio wrote: »

Came across this podcast through Ian Dunt's Twitter (he has some involvenent in it).

It's very good: http://www.remainiacs.com

It really is an excellent podcast.

If I have derived one personal benefit from Brexit, it's that I have discovered the brilliance of Ian Dunt. Has a great balance between liberalism, realism and rationality --- and is also pretty funny. Definitely a guy who would be great to have a drink with.

There is hope for British journalism yet !

trellheim

Express article.

EU FARCE: Irish exporters FUME at EU’s plan to avoid UK in new post-Brexit shipping routes
EUROPEAN Union plans to create shipping routes between Ireland and the Continent, deliberately avoiding Britain after Brexit, have been rubbished by Irish food exporters.

They are not wrong but its nice to know the Express cares

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1001174/Brexit-news-no-deal-Ireland-EU-UK-shipping-route-latest

but if thats whats going to happen...

Anthracite

Rhineshark wrote: »

I think the Wales vote was more complex than it looks and that the country has basically been ignored since the referendum just as it was before it. But the anger under the surface hasn't been appeased. I suspect eventually Westminster will be forced to take notice and the longer they ignore it, the more explosive that voice will be when it eventually gets heard.

What are Wales going to to about it? I've nothing against Welsh people, but as a 'nation', Wales is a joke. They barely trusted themselves to have a non-tax-raising assembly to devolve power to. Their idea of an explosion of rage would likely be to prostrate themselves even more to the English.

Capt'n Midnight

enda1 wrote: »

EU Concession rumour from Business Insider

Say it aint so!

Though little chance of it passing through parliament, this will be falsely seized upon by the Brexiteers as a sign of the UK's superior diplomacy and tough negotiating strategy, further leading them down the steadfast no-compromise bottom-less pit.

Isn't that the Turkey deal ?

No free movement of people so trucks delayed at the hard border.
No independent trade deals except on agri opt-outs
No say in EU trade deals so a rule taker.
And services and stuff, yeah

Thing is the UK can't be offered more than Turkey unless they take more rules, otherwise Turkey is entitled to the same deal. And they have a larger population with a third of the UK's GDP.





BTW 99.85% of the UK population doesn't live in Jersey.

Thing about the "Jersey Model" is , like the offer for Northern Ireland to remain in the CU and other regional exceptions , it only applies to a small section of a country.

Kermit.de.frog

Surely every other EU country would be queuing up demanding cake as well if such a deal was made for the UK?

Infini

Calling BS on the whole Buisness Insider thing. Feels like the stuff off that is unreliable and shoddy and based on rumors. Would wait till a more reliable publication reports it IMO.