Brexit discussion thread IV

trellheim

Related question : are most of our motor distributors off the UK channels - where we going to get our left hand drive cars from then ? Anyone know what autotrader Malta and Cyprus are like for bargains lol

Edit : sorry, yes, RHD drives.

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

Related question : are most of our motor distributors off the UK channels - where we going to get our left hand drive cars from then ? Anyone know what autotrader Malta and Cyprus are like for bargains lol

We drive right hand drive cars.

VAT as well as VRT may be levied on cars from the UK after Brexit, depending on the agreement or lack of it. We still can import RHD cars, also from Australia, NZ, Kenya, South Africa, Japan, Hong Kong, and Indian Sub continent, among other countries. [75 countries drive on the left].

There may be a transition for UK sourced cars, but maybe not.

Capt'n Midnight

trellheim wrote: »

Related question : are most of our motor distributors off the UK channels - where we going to get our left hand drive cars from then ? Anyone know what autotrader Malta and Cyprus are like for bargains lol

Tarrif free Japanese imports, thanks to the new EU trade deal.

Also EU rules mean manufactures
have to offer a left hand drive option.



Not sure now, but a few years back most car imports into the EU by ship were "landed" in Ireland because we had a nice scam on the entry fees.

A PTCT can carry 8,500 cars at a time, with economies of scale. The ferries from Belgium have 8Km of vehicle lanes. And besides TIR means we can still import sealed stuff through the UK without customs inspection.


What may happen is restructuring in some industries. So instead of the Irish office reporting to the European HQ via the UK office we'd go direct. we are a small market so it made sense to tag us on to the UK for many companies, but if it means two sets of paperwork that may change.

J Mysterio

Rhineshark wrote: »

"Theresa May was said to be hurt and concerned her credentials as a guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement were not being taken seriously."

Well frankly diddums to you, PM £1b-Bribe-To-DUP-for-Support-Westminster-Neutrality-Me-Arse May.

Well really...

Honestly, it's just the most ridiculous spin. I thought she was meant to be a 'bloody difficult woman'. If she is 'hurt and upset', can she imagine how the citizens of NI feel? Risable.

EdgeCase

Sure our cars already deviated from the UK spec with km/h only clocks.
Ireland’s small but it’s not any less a significant market than say Norway or Denmark. Things will continue to be supplied.

Peregrinus

flatty wrote: »

What reaction are the gauging though? The papers?

No. They put a story out there so that it gets talked about. In this case they'll be interested to see what ERG members and similar say when asked about the story (as they will be). They'll also want to gauge public opinion more generally - what would be the general reaction to such a shift in the UK position? It's possible that tthe political focus groups (which all the major parties are running all the time) will be polled about this in the coming weeks.

Peregrinus

Infini wrote: »

Not to side track too much, I dont like much of Boris but to be fair on this the Niquab/full face veil that some muslim women are wearing IS considered to be rather regressive. The Headscarf is hardly a bother since IMO its very similar to the shawl the old ladies wore years ago but theres alot of negative connotations associated with it thanks to the idiots in the crazy east and the carryon im Saudi arabia.

Sure. You can take the view that the burqa and the niqab are problematic or objectionable. You can believe or assume that the majority of women who wear one are more or less coerced into doing so, that the intention and effect is to isolate and marginalise them, and that they are oppressed by it. These are genuine and reasonable concerns.

But if those are your concerns, you don't respond by sneering at and ridiculing burqa-wearers. That doesn't fight against the oppresson of women; it adds to it. It's like trying to fight Nazi-ism by sneering at people wearing yellow stars, or fighting racism by ridiculing blacks for sitting at the back of the bus.

If you believe that women wearing burqas are oppressed, then you must regard Johnson as one of the bad guys here. He's not fighting the oppression of Muslim women; he's oppressing them in order to pander to the racist and imperialist instincts of people whose support he has decided to court.

(He may also hate women or Muslims himself, of course. I don't think we have clear evidence on that one way or the other.)

flatty

Peregrinus wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

What reaction are the gauging though? The papers?

No. They put a story out there so that it gets talked about. In this case they'll be interested to see what ERG members and similar say when asked about the story (as they will be). They'll also want to gauge public opinion more generally - what would be the general reaction to such a shift in the UK position? It's possible that tthe political focus groups (which all the major parties are running all the time) will be polled about this in the coming weeks.

If so, it's even worse. Teresa may is running the country over a cliff edge based upon the feelings of Cletus Rees mogg and his associated band of rednecks, bigots and slack jawed yokels, and and the odd focus group telephone interview, whilst screaming "the people voted" to anyone who will listen, claiming to be upset, bribing a bunch of right wing terrorist connected loons with a billion pounds of other peoples money just to stay in power, whilst her smug "hand of history moment" emerges steadily ahead in the tunnel, running at full speed towards her. She is entirely responsible for this mess, absolutely 100%. She will hop out of the way herself and observe the train wreck from a safe distance, like lawson.

murphaph

flatty wrote: »

If so, it's even worse. Teresa may is running the country over a cliff edge based upon the feelings of Cletus Rees mogg and his associated band of rednecks, bigots and slack jawed yokels, and and the odd focus group telephone interview, whilst screaming "the people voted" to anyone who will listen, claiming to be upset, bribing a bunch of right wing terrorist connected loons with a billion pounds of other peoples money just to stay in power, whilst her smug "hand of history moment" emerges steadily ahead in the tunnel, running at full speed towards her. She is entirely responsible for this mess, absolutely 100%. She will hop out of the way herself and observe the train wreck from a safe distance, like lawson.

I still lay most of the blame at Cameron's door but she created those ridiculous red lines when there was an escape route there for her. I believe she bought into the Brexit hype in the aftermath of the referendum. Terrible judgement.

Rhineshark

J Mysterio wrote: »

Honestly, it's just the most ridiculous spin. I thought she was meant to be a 'bloody difficult woman'. If she is 'hurt and upset', can she imagine how the citizens of NI feel? Risable.

Even more hypocritical in light of this lovely bit of legislation;
http://www.thejournal.ie/stop-and-search-northern-ireland-4174889-Aug2018/

Gad missus, I don't know why anyone would have any doubts about your being a guarantor of the GFA at all at all.

Also, that hits well, all border towns obviously, but also any first station stop from RoI (trains - would include Newry station) and parts of Derry.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/stop-and-search-zones-planned-for-northern-ireland-border-after-brexit-37204761.html

ancapailldorcha

Rhineshark wrote: »

Gad missus, I don't know why anyone would have any doubts about your being a guarantor of the GFA at all at all.37204761.html

Mod: No more of these comments please.

Random Bloke

Peregrinus wrote: »

Sure. You can take the view that the burqa and the niqab are problematic or objectionable. You can believe or assume that the majority of women who wear one are more or less coerced into doing so, that the intention and effect is to isolate and marginalise them, and that they are oppressed by it. These are genuine and reasonable concerns.

But if those are your concerns, you don't respond by sneering at and ridiculing burqa-wearers. That doesn't fight against the oppresson of women; it adds to it. It's like trying to fight Nazi-ism by sneering at people wearing yellow stars, or fighting racism by ridiculing blacks for sitting at the back of the bus.

If you believe that women wearing burqas are oppressed, then you must regard Johnson as one of the bad guys here. He's not fighting the oppression of Muslim women; he's oppressing them in order to pander to the racist and imperialist instincts of people whose support he has decided to court.

(He may also hate women or Muslims himself, of course. I don't think we have clear evidence on that one way or the other.)

Interesting analogy by BJ. Funnily, he always reminds me of a street bin. Not much substance, big mouth and normally full of crap.

Rhineshark

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: No more of these comments please.

I would have used "mister" if it was still Cameron btw!

But honestly, the howling hypocrisy deserves any sarcasm it gets. But apologies, I'll reign it in.

brickster69

Jaggo wrote: »

brickster69 wrote: »

The parts were designed and approved by the EU so they can continue to be used.

You have a link for that ?

Parts were not designed by the EU, they are certified by the EU. Once the UK leaves the EU those certification for parts would not be valid, fitted or not. So the planes cannot fly because parts of the plane are not legally certified within the EU.

Same for services to parts. You cannot just get some company in to service the engines and wings and sign it off every week. Services are a critical part of the contract.

Rolls Royce are just now are planning on getting new parts designed in Germany in order to get approved, not prior.

The Airbus UK operation is certified by EASA not the CAA so it's fine, it's certs will continue post brexit. Some of the components aren't though. EASA will have to grandfather the existing certification and then recertify the remaining post brexit.
Difficult but manageable.

Cabin crew, airports, maintainence and navigation are another story. But the eu has been well ahead on the curve on this. They have discussed this with the FAA back in late 2016.

Even in a no deal scenario i still see the EU helping the UK out with some temporary help.

True, but the safety certificates for parts and assembly will no longer be valid. For insurance purposes planes have to be 100% compliant for safety to fly. The CAA issues the safety certificates not Airbus and the CAA certificates will no longer be accepted. This will apply to all planes flying into the EU and out of.
Section 2 is quite clear
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/brexit-notice-to-stakeholders-aviation-safety.pdf

Nate--IRL--

This means flights from the UK to the US and other countries around the world will be similarly affected?

That is bonkers.

Nate

J Mysterio

Jacob Rees Mogg is getting destroyed on Twitter for calling Mark Carney 'the High Priest of Project Fear':

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1025375333757935616

I liked this response:

Listen to the language, "high priest of Project Fear". No mate, he's the highly respected governor of the bank of England with bags of experience trying to do his job. Why have you set up a trading house in the EU?

Rhineshark

J Mysterio wrote: »

Jacob Rees Mogg is getting destroyed on Twitter for calling Mark Carney 'the High Priest of Project Fear':

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1025375333757935616

I liked this response:

Listen to the language, "high priest of Project Fear". No mate, he's the highly respected governor of the bank of England with bags of experience trying to do his job. Why have you set up a trading house in the EU?

And yet when Fox said the same thing only in far harder language (and with a completely made-up figure) in the context of his political position, he's a perfectly reasonable man making a perfectly reasonable point and it's totally different.

brickster69

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

This means flights from the UK to the US and other countries around the world will be similarly affected?

That is bonkers.

Nate

Yep, that's Brexit for you !

brickster69

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

This means flights from the UK to the US and other countries around the world will be similarly affected?

That is bonkers.

Nate

Actually it means, any flights departing from the EU or landing in the EU for planes whose parts have a CAA safety certificate. 
A much greater mess is the Financial and insurance services contracts which would become invalid if no transition deal is agreed. Basically it equates to a financial Armageddon.
However it ends you cannot see anything but a transitional agreement being implemented, in fact it's no surprise if it has not been agreed already the way things have panned out.

brickster69

1/20 Transition
14/1 No Deal
50/1 Deal

An Claidheamh

trellheim wrote: »

Express article.


They are not wrong but its nice to know the Express cares

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1001174/Brexit-news-no-deal-Ireland-EU-UK-shipping-route-latest

but if thats whats going to happen...

Haven't you heard?

Britain does not want to trade with us.

Alternatively, you could phrase that article

"EU and Ireland get on with giving Britain what it voted for and plan more routes to the Mainland"

....... but, this is the Express we're dealing with it...


Have a feeling, as they get more nervous, lose more control, that they going to have to increase the size of their font at that rag .

Rhineshark

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Haven't you heard?

Britain does not want to trade with us.

Alternatively, you could phrase that article

"EU and Ireland get on with giving Britain what it voted for and plan more routes to the Mainland"

....... but, this is the Express we're dealing with it...


Have a feeling, as they get more nervous, lose more control, that they going to have to increase the size of their font at that rag .

Oddly enough I have found that the actual articles in the Express tend to be more reasonable and measured - well, given I'm comparing it to the headlines, a brick is more reasonable and measured, so low bar. The articles certainly are happy to cherry-pick, use emotive language, etc, but they often seem to be only tangentially related to the headlines anyway.

trellheim

Head of TUI - German airline (48 hours ago )

U.K. bookings rose but margins shrank on a weaker pound. Joussen said it’s too early to say if Britons will be put off traveling immediately after the scheduled split from the European Union on March 29. He said TUI “will prepare for everything,” while predicting that negotiators will agree a “grace period” that should head off any Brexit-related disruption.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-pace-and-other-rivals-a-headache-for-tesla-s-elon-musk


Anyone else hearing this. What would a grace period look like ? Although I cant see how anything can get through the needle before April

trellheim

More feedback here

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-08-10/both-sides-of-brexit-can-finally-agree-it-s-a-joke

Good article btw

the standout for me ...

s perturbed over May’s difficulties in making Brexit happen. “Omnishambles, isn’t it? It does make me wonder if there’s some strategy behind it to be make it so disastrous-looking that we end up with an acceptable fudge.”

RobAMerc

trellheim wrote: »

More feedback here

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-08-10/both-sides-of-brexit-can-finally-agree-it-s-a-joke

Good article btw

the standout for me ...

If we stop trading with Europe, it wouldn’t be a big problem.” Not even for him, he says, even though about 80 percent of his water coolers are sold to EU countries.

“Airbus are going to leave,” Elliott said. “Please go. We’re going to use those 14,000 people to make something else.”

Holy moley - what kind of idiotic, insane thinking goes into this? I mean they can't be complete morons, they run companies, but do these clowns live on the same planet as the rest of us ?

trellheim

ut do these clowns live on the same planet as the rest of us ?

For Brexiters the argument is ideological NOT economic, thats why they can't put up answers to these hard questions.

listermint

The French are not happy at all about the EU plan to reroute Irish shipping to non french ports.

Veto at play

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-france-to-veto-re-routed-trade-plan-between-ireland-and-europe-1.3593604

trellheim

Its commission to MEPs ,... what veto are they talking about ? I posted about this above. Read the feedback . I think Calais will be chokka with stuck containers


With my "follow the money hat" oh look ....

( its all about TEN-T grant money you see )

Capt'n Midnight

From The Observer, YouGov polls of 15,000

More than 100 seats that backed Brexit now want to remain in EU

At this stage it looks like the swing is coming from "Labour Leave voters who initially believed that leaving the EU would improve their economic prospects."

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

From The Observer, YouGov polls of 15,000

More than 100 seats that backed Brexit now want to remain in EU

At this stage it looks like the swing is coming from "Labour Leave voters who initially believed that leaving the EU would improve their economic prospects."

I think that should inform the Labour Party to go all-in with a campaign for reversal of Brexit - or at least a second referendum on the terms of the leave/withdrawal deal. Evan Jezza cannot be that stupid not to see that it would be a winner.