Brexit discussion thread IV

LuckyLloyd

Akrasia, I completely and utterly agree and see this the exact same way: the latest attempt to smear Corbyn with some scandal or another. Of course the issue is that this low rent smearing - liked by those who dislike Corbyn - is symptomatic of the kind of media nonsense that served to create Brexit. But how quick people engage with it when it suits their political agenda.

Tick tock, tick tock. The UK is running out of time.

Rjd2

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think both are utterly trivial and irrelevant matters relative to the seismic issue facing the UK. This is party political nonsense ultimately. Johnson is a buffoon, but a racist? Corbyn is not antisemitic in any real way, no more than I am when I say Israel's latest legislation marginalizing Palestinians is ludicrous. And who cares. The obsession over the machinations of these parties has in large part produced the chaos of Brexit. It doesn't matter, it's noise.

I don't think they are trivial. Johnson is fav to be the next PM, so he dabbing his feet into this sort of thing is very worrying.

Corbyn has been proven to be an Anti-Semite a long time ago and the concern is his white walkers dont care. The most recent example of the wreath laying is even for his standards a low point.

Thankfully they are plenty of people who have the courage to call out both sides, the white walkers who sit around reading the canary and squakabox and the right wingers who yearn for some sort of Trumpism and Orbanism need to be called out.

listermint

Rjd2 wrote: »

I don't think they are trivial. Johnson is fav to be the next PM, so he dabbing his feet into this sort of thing is very worrying.

Corbyn has been proven to be an Anti-Semite a long time ago and the concern is his white walkers dont care. The most recent example of the wreath laying is even for his standards a low point.

Thankfully they are plenty of people who have the courage to call out both sides, the white walkers who sit around reading the canary and squakabox and the right wingers who yearn for some sort of Trumpism and Orbanism need to be called out.

What about the UK being thrown into Economic turmoil that likes of which it has never seen?

Or should he media just be continuing this wack a mole popularity contest of who is worst.

Leroy42

listermint wrote: »

What about the UK being thrown into Economic turmoil that likes of which it has never seen?

Or should he media just be continuing this wack a mole popularity contest of who is worst.

Well, 1st off you have to actually believe that the economy will be hit hard.

There are plenty in the UK that don't think this is going to happen. I was listening to a London Business School discussion on Youtube and the guy representing CoL was pretty relaxed about the whole thing. Doesn't think Brexit will have much impact. Said London was so massively more important that the rest of the EU put together that even a 5% movement of trade/jobs would leave them as still by far the biggest. He didn't explain what happens to the loss in tax etc from the loss of that 5%!

The current stories in the media are important and under normal times they would be the most important. Many feel that Brexit will happen, life will go on, nothing much will change. So they need to focus on what, or in this case who, comes next

Akrasia

Rjd2 wrote: »

I don't think they are trivial. Johnson is fav to be the next PM, so he dabbing his feet into this sort of thing is very worrying.

Corbyn has been proven to be an Anti-Semite a long time ago and the concern is his white walkers dont care. The most recent example of the wreath laying is even for his standards a low point.

Thankfully they are plenty of people who have the courage to call out both sides, the white walkers who sit around reading the canary and squakabox and the right wingers who yearn for some sort of Trumpism and Orbanism need to be called out.

No he isn't

What 'proof' is there.

Everyone who has ever spoken against Israeli occupation of Gaza has been accused of being an anti semite at some stage on social media.

Half of the 'proof' about corbyn involves him being seen near or associated with other alleged anti semites

Then there was his 'Auschwitz to Gaza' talk in 2010, which may have been ham handed, but it was a perfectly reasonable political event given that the Israeli blockade of Gaza has got really worrying similarities with the Warsaw Ghetto during WW2.

It is not anti semitic to remind jewish people of what happened to them in the holocaust, and then ask them to consider their treatment of the people in Gaza. That talk was 8 years ago, and since then, the Israeli treatment of innocent people in Gaza has only gotten worse. There are plenty of jewish people who are horrified at being associated with such behaviour, and they theselves are often called anti semites for daring to criticise zionist policies.

Compare Corbyn's 'anti semitism' with the 'alt right's' conspiracy theory new world order and neo-nazi sympathising and it's completely obvious that if there are any anti semites in UK politics, they're wearing Tory, BNP or UKIP colours and supporting Brexit.

ArmaniJeanss

Rjd2 wrote: »

I don't think they are trivial. Johnson is fav to be the next PM, so he dabbing his feet into this sort of thing is very worrying.

Corbyn has been proven to be an Anti-Semite a long time ago and the concern is his white walkers dont care. The most recent example of the wreath laying is even for his standards a low point.

Thankfully they are plenty of people who have the courage to call out both sides, the white walkers who sit around reading the canary and squakabox and the right wingers who yearn for some sort of Trumpism and Orbanism need to be called out.

The wreath laying was 4 years ago, so hardly recent. You may know this already, but it's probably worth repeating as the media seem to deem it a detail rarely worth mentioning.

Rjd2

listermint wrote: »

What about the UK being thrown into Economic turmoil that likes of which it has never seen?

Or should he media just be continuing this wack a mole popularity contest of who is worst.

They should not ignore two of the biggest scourges in Europe right now anti-Semitism and Islamophobia. There is plenty of warnings how stupid Brexit is to be fair, its clicking with some and others it isn’t. Johnson and Corbyn don’t deserve passes for that.

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well, 1st off you have to actually believe that the economy will be hit hard.

There are plenty in the UK that don't think this is going to happen. I was listening to a London Business School discussion on Youtube and the guy representing CoL was pretty relaxed about the whole thing. Doesn't think Brexit will have much impact. Said London was so massively more important that the rest of the EU put together that even a 5% movement of trade/jobs would leave them as still by far the biggest. He didn't explain what happens to the loss in tax etc from the loss of that 5%!

The current stories in the media are important and under normal times they would be the most important. Many feel that Brexit will happen, life will go on, nothing much will change. So they need to focus on what, or in this case who, comes next

I heard that too and was immediately reminded of the talk Adam Posen gave days after the Brexit vote where he said that Britain is really insignificant on a global scale, and while brexit seems like a big deal to the British and some of their closest trading partners, on a global scale, they're insignificant and will barely register a blip on the radar if they crash out of the EU and their economy collapses.

ArthurDayne

Leroy42 wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

What about the UK being thrown into Economic turmoil that likes of which it has never seen?

Or should he media just be continuing this wack a mole popularity contest of who is worst.

Well, 1st off you have to actually believe that the economy will be hit hard.  

There are plenty in the UK that don't think this is going to happen.  I was listening to a London Business School discussion on Youtube and the guy representing CoL was pretty relaxed about the whole thing.  Doesn't think Brexit will have much impact.  Said London was so massively more important that the rest of the EU put together that even a 5% movement of trade/jobs would leave them as still by far the biggest.  He didn't explain what happens to the loss in tax etc from the loss of that 5%!

The current stories in the media are important and under normal times they would be the most important.  Many feel that Brexit will happen, life will go on, nothing much will change.  So they need to focus on what, or in this case who, comes next

It's interesting though that we keep hearing about the City.  London has a fairly resilient economy, is awash with talent, has excellent infrastructure and will continue to be a popular financial centre.  The businesses I would be in contact with through work (mainly financial services companies) have all performed extensive analysis on their Brexit plans and are all quite optimistic that they are prepared -- though a fair bit of shuffling around has had to take place and fair bit more may be needed in a crash-out scenario.   

But what of business outside London? What about the lesser financial centres who have been able to strategically position themselves as cheaper alternatives to London which retain all the same access rights to the EU and single market?  Edinburgh and Manchester spring very much to mind -- not to mention Belfast which had taken remarkable strides in attracting big name business over the past 10-15 years. 

I think there were papers leaked from the government around January showing the projected GDP hit on the north of England for example.  As far as I recall, best case scenario was a 2% GDP drop -- and that was if the UK stayed in the single market.  One cannot help but feel that, for those in the North who voted on the basis of being 'left behind' by the South, they may well have only voted in favour of economic irrelevance.

Econ__

Akrasia wrote: »

The Corbyn Anti Semitic thing is a campaign by Paul Dacre to smear Corbyn with a label that makes it look like both labour and the Tories are just as bad as each other

Corbyn is a leftist, the left have had a long standing tradition of supporting a free Palestine and an end to the blockades and occupation. All Dacre is doing is digging up old photographs where he was in the viscinity of a plaque from 4 years ago, and then claiming that it is because he was paying homage to terrorists, when he was actually there to visit a memorial to victims of an IDF air bombardment.


It's like claiming someone is a Paedophile sympathiser because they walk past a paedophile's house on the way to somewhere else.

And the entire conservative british media are loving it, they get to talk about his denials and his non denials and ask him loaded questions about when he stopped beating his wife because now the story is that Corbyn has denied being an anti semite rather than that he actually is one.

There are certain israeli groups who use the term anti semite as a weapon against anyone who is opposed to their illegal occupation of palestine. It's the easiest smear in the world to make against anyone who stands up for a persecuted people in Gaza and the West bank, but the media are failing in their duty to question whether a pro human rights position constitutes anti semitism just because it is a subsection of jews (zionists) who are accused of being the abusers.

There's a not insignificant number of Corbyn's most loyal supporters that have engaged in blatant anti-semitism, whether that's through online comments, supporting anti-Semitic groups etc. Corbyn has to a large extent turned a blind eye to it whenever he thinks he can get away with it.

Large elements of the hard left have historically been anti-semitic. They have this idea in their heads that jews are symbolic of the unequal western capitalist sphere we live in. Many of Corbyn's actions (or lack of) undeniably show that he's pandered to these perceptions.

There is an element of the right wing media pushing the anti-semitism narrative to damage Corbyn but it's delusional to suggest that there's nothing in it. It is a serious problem for the Labour party.

Rjd2

Akrasia wrote: »

No he isn't

What 'proof' is there.

Everyone who has ever spoken against Israeli occupation of Gaza has been accused of being an anti semite at some stage on social media.

Half of the 'proof' about corbyn involves him being seen near or associated with other alleged anti semites

Then there was his 'Auschwitz to Gaza' talk in 2010, which may have been ham handed, but it was a perfectly reasonable political event given that the Israeli blockade of Gaza has got really worrying similarities with the Warsaw Ghetto during WW2.

It is not anti semitic to remind jewish people of what happened to them in the holocaust, and then ask them to consider their treatment of the people in Gaza. That talk was 8 years ago, and since then, the Israeli treatment of innocent people in Gaza has only gotten worse. There are plenty of jewish people who are horrified at being associated with such behaviour, and they theselves are often called anti semites for daring to criticise zionist policies.

Compare Corbyn's 'anti semitism' with the 'alt right's' conspiracy theory new world order and neo-nazi sympathising and it's completely obvious that if there are any anti semites in UK politics, they're wearing Tory, BNP or UKIP colours and supporting Brexit.

Corbyn has shared platforms with plenty of anti-Semites, heck Ken Livingston and Naz Shah two proud Anti Semites are still in the party.
He has called Hezbollah and Hamas friends and also is pally with the IRA murderers. He is a standard clichfar left anti-western buffoon who would back anyone that opposes the supposed evil West.

The proven anti-Semite has finally admitted he lied today; hopefully his white walkers finally do some soul searching and admit that this man they have on such a pedestal is not the Messiah they believe him to be.

listermint

ArthurDayne wrote: »

It's interesting though that we keep hearing about the City.  London has a fairly resilient economy, is awash with talent, has excellent infrastructure and will continue to be a popular financial centre.  The businesses I would be in contact with through work (mainly financial services companies) have all performed extensive analysis on their Brexit plans and are all quite optimistic that they are prepared -- though a fair bit of shuffling around has had to take place and fair bit more may be needed in a crash-out scenario.   

But what of business outside London? What about the lesser financial centres who have been able to strategically position themselves as cheaper alternatives to London which retain all the same access rights to the EU and single market?  Edinburgh and Manchester spring very much to mind -- not to mention Belfast which had taken remarkable strides in attracting big name business over the past 10-15 years. 

I think there were papers leaked from the government around January showing the projected GDP hit on the north of England for example.  As far as I recall, best case scenario was a 2% GDP drop -- and that was if the UK stayed in the single market.  One cannot help but feel that, for those in the North who voted on the basis of being 'left behind' by the South, they may well have only voted in favour of economic irrelevance.

These Financial service companies are saying nothing. no headlines no panic motions as finance does not do well with that. They are moving in the dark moving offices buying up leases left right and centre in European locations.

I wouldnt expect us to hear anything about massive shifts in finance operations. We only hear when they have to declare movements.

London wont be fine, certainly not the fine that it enjoys today.

J Mysterio

Rjd2 wrote: »

They should not ignore two of the biggest scourges in Europe right now anti-Semitism and Islamophobia. There is plenty of warnings how stupid Brexit is to be fair, its clicking with some and others it isn’t. Johnson and Corbyn don’t deserve passes for that.

Anti-Semitism is hardly one of the biggest scourges in Europe right now, that's nonsense.

There is a lot of well founded and justified criticism of the appalling behavior of the Jewish state and their POS leader Netanyahu.

Imreoir2

I was listening to a podcast on Brexit recently and it was claimed that FDI to the UK fell massivly following on from Brexit. The headline figure was that FDI fell by 92% from 2016 to 2017.

Did a little research and it seems that this figure is misleading as the merger of a major company, which counts as FDI, hugely distorted the UK FDI figure for 2016.

However, while the 92% decrease headline is misleading, FDI to the UK has still decreased significantly from pre-brexit referendum levels. The level of FDI in 2017 was still only 30% of the average FDI during the great global recession years 2011, 2012 and 2013.

By comparrision, FDI to Ireland was nearly twice the FDI to the UK in 2017.

I have seen so many Brexiteers claim that the predictions of "Project Fear" have not come true. Surely this huge collapse in FDI is a prediction that has come true.

Spook_ie

Akrasia wrote: »

The Corbyn Anti Semitic thing is a campaign by Paul Dacre to smear Corbyn with a label that makes it look like both labour and the Tories are just as bad as each other

Corbyn is a leftist, the left have had a long standing tradition of supporting a free Palestine and an end to the blockades and occupation. All Dacre is doing is digging up old photographs where he was in the viscinity of a plaque from 4 years ago, and then claiming that it is because he was paying homage to terrorists, when he was actually there to visit a memorial to victims of an IDF air bombardment.


It's like claiming someone is a Paedophile sympathiser because they walk past a paedophile's house on the way to somewhere else.

And the entire conservative british media are loving it, they get to talk about his denials and his non denials and ask him loaded questions about when he stopped beating his wife because now the story is that Corbyn has denied being an anti semite rather than that he actually is one.

There are certain israeli groups who use the term anti semite as a weapon against anyone who is opposed to their illegal occupation of palestine. It's the easiest smear in the world to make against anyone who stands up for a persecuted people in Gaza and the West bank, but the media are failing in their duty to question whether a pro human rights position constitutes anti semitism just because it is a subsection of jews (zionists) who are accused of being the abusers.

Surely it would be more akin to dropping into a pedophiles house for a cup of tea and a sandwich whilst electioneering? He did attend not walk past!

Econ__

listermint wrote: »

These Financial service companies are saying nothing. no headlines no panic motions as finance does not do well with that. They are moving in the dark moving offices buying up leases left right and centre in European locations.

I wouldnt expect us to hear anything about massive shifts in finance operations. We only hear when they have to declare movements.

London wont be fine, certainly not the fine that it enjoys today.

Financial services are caught between a rock and a hard place. They want to carry on exporting their services into the EU but they also think it's critically important that that the rules that regulate them are not made without any UK influence. Brexit means you can have one of these things but not both.

FrancieBrady

Do they have any chance of success?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/14/british-expats-in-eu-launch-brexit-legal-challenge?CMP=share_btn_fb

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do they have any chance of success?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/14/british-expats-in-eu-launch-brexit-legal-challenge?CMP=share_btn_fb

None, unless the powers that be pull strings.


They argue that the decision to trigger article 50 to withdraw from the EU was therefore not in accordance with the UK’s constitutional requirements.

The referendum was advisory but Parliament is sovereign.

Parliament can ride roughshod over voters, royalty, laws and the Unwritten Constitution, even the House of Lords.

lawred2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do they have any chance of success?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/14/british-expats-in-eu-launch-brexit-legal-challenge?CMP=share_btn_fb

Probably not

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do they have any chance of success?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/14/british-expats-in-eu-launch-brexit-legal-challenge?CMP=share_btn_fb

Well, the Art 50 had to be put to a vote - albeit little more than a tweet of a bill, but the Supreme Court did hold sway over Parliament. It could again say that all fruit from the poisoned referendum is also poisoned. It could then declare that not only was the result of the referendum not constitutional, so were all that followed from it.

Unlikely, but possible.

McGiver

Charles Babbage wrote: »

There was an interesting article in the FT making the point that Britain was lagging in productivity behind other developed nations.

They also had a table about skills. The notable thing here is that England is the only place where skills have not improved much over time.



Notably NI is not like this, but is less prosperous than England, which suiggests its political arrangements are not correct. Both parts of this island need to improve to catch up on places like NL.

Huge progress on Irish level of low skilled, but still very high in European terms.

Tough to compete with the Netherlands though, that can't be used as a benchmark. They had a headstart of about 400 years. They practically invented capitalism, corporations, stocks, had highly educated, highly urbanised population already by 1600s. Just to compare the urbanisation % of the
Netherlands and England by 1650s:

Netherlands 32%
England & Wales 9%

I don't have historical data for Ireland...but now it;s 91% Netherlands, Ireland 63%.

Rjd2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Anti-Semitism is hardly one of the biggest scourges in Europe right now, that's nonsense.

There is a lot of well founded and justified criticism of the appalling behavior of the Jewish state and their POS leader Netanyahu.

We must never downplay the threat of anti semetism in Europe when so many leaders flirt with it and the next PM of the UK is best case scenario blind to it, or most likely a standard Anti Semite.

Its not a a case of choosing between Netanyahu or Corbyn, they are both absolutely dire.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsemotiuk/2018/02/12/jews-in-france-ponder-whether-to-stay-or-to-leave/

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/20/europe/poland-holocaust-law-jewish-community-intl/index.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/antisemitic-zionist-jewish-identity-muslim-islamophobia-immigration-migrants-racism-a8022726.html

Rjd2

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/08/while-left-and-right-indulge-whataboutery-muslims-and-jews-are-united-against

I don't want to keep going on about this, but that is a great article. Calls both main parties and there racism out and hammers how both sides use whataboutism to deflect from the poison in both parties.

That's what we need, people to call out racism even when it hurts there supposed side.

LeinsterDub

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, the Art 50 had to be put to a vote - albeit little more than a tweet of a bill, but the Supreme Court did hold sway over Parliament. It could again say that all fruit from the poisoned referendum is also poisoned. It could then declare that not only was the result of the referendum not constitutional, so were all that followed from it.

Unlikely, but possible.

That was different it was because May was trying to deny parliament sovereignty

BonnieSituation

McGiver wrote: »

Huge progress on Irish level of low skilled, but still very high in European terms.

Tough to compete with the Netherlands though, that can't be used as a benchmark. They had a headstart of about 400 years. They practically invented capitalism, corporations, stocks, had highly educated, highly urbanised population already by 1600s. Just to compare the urbanisation % of the
Netherlands and England by 1650s:

Netherlands 32%
England & Wales 9%

I don't have historical data for Ireland...but now it;s 91% Netherlands, Ireland 63%.

The book, "The Ascent of Money" is a great read.

Also don't forget that it was practically one company, VOC (Dutch East India Company), was the true pioneer in capitalism, stocks etc. And the most valuable company in history. Suck on that Apple.

Rhineshark

Charles Babbage wrote: »

There was an interesting article in the FT making the point that Britain was lagging in productivity behind other developed nations.

They also had a table about skills. The notable thing here is that England is the only place where skills have not improved much over time.



Notably NI is not like this, but is less prosperous than England, which suiggests its political arrangements are not correct. Both parts of this island need to improve to catch up on places like NL.

South Korea caught my eye there. Relatively high percentage of older people with low numeracy and literacy skills but very low % younger people which suggests some sort of active (big) intervention to me rather than natural progress.

Looking into it more, a set of large scale education reforms over the 1980s and huge societal pressure to be college-educated as the only form of social mobility. They kinda did what Ireland did only a lot more so. Ended up with education inflation, over-education, high graduate joblessness and not enough skilled people. It's starting to, if not revert, become far less rigid though.

MICKEYG

Was listening to some of the James O'Brien call ins on LBC.
Does he plant these people, they can't be genuine?
He is a bit of a shock jock himself but the lack of thought or understanding on the part of the callers is incredible.

Peregrinus

MICKEYG wrote: »

Was listening to some of the James O'Brien call ins on LBC.
Does he plant these people, they can't be genuine?
He is a bit of a shock jock himself but the lack of thought or understanding on the part of the callers is incredible.

Pretty well all talk radio involves filtering out the sane callers and giving disproportionate airtime to the sensational ones. You should never use it as a barometer of public information or public sentiment, because it's intentionally skewed away from the median position.

The callers are (mostly) genuine, but they are not representative.

LuckyLloyd

Only the crazies from his shows end up on YouTube highlights tbf. If you listen to his full shows it’s one out of five that are bad

demfad

This is from the very reputable source of Ian Birrel (credits just below), and is the likely (perhaps only) way for the Brexit disaster to be put to bed:

(– Contributing editor of The Mail on Sunday as foreign reporter and commentator. Weekly column in the ‘i’ paper. Also writes for The Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Mail, The Observer, The Daily Telegraph, The Guardian, The Sun, The Spectator and Mosaic. Previously published in many other papers, platforms and magazines.

– Foreign correspondent who has reported from more than 50 countries including Albania, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, France, Gabon, Ghana, Greece, Haiti, Iraq, Israel, Liberia, Libya, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, South Africa, Serbia, Syria, Tanzania, Uganda, Ukraine, US and Zimbabwe.

– Foreign Reporter of the Year (2015) and Columnist of the Year (2015) in British Press Awards – a unique double win. Winner of London Press Club’s prestigious Edgar Wallace Award (2014) for fine writing and reporting. Highly commended as Foreign Reporter (2011) and Feature Writer (2013 & 2017) in British Press Awards. Shortlisted in 16 other awards for columns, feature writing, foreign and news reporting, economic analysis, political journalism, science writing and ‘contrarianism’ since 2011.)


https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1029434089621868544