Brexit discussion thread IV

LuckyLloyd

demfad wrote: »

This is from the very reputable source of Ian Birrel (credits just below), and is the likely (perhaps only) way for the Brexit disaster to be put to bed:

(– Contributing editor of The Mail on Sunday as foreign reporter and commentator. Weekly column in the ‘i’ paper. Also writes for The Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Mail, The Observer, The Daily Telegraph, The Guardian, The Sun, The Spectator and Mosaic. Previously published in many other papers, platforms and magazines.

– Foreign correspondent who has reported from more than 50 countries including Albania, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, France, Gabon, Ghana, Greece, Haiti, Iraq, Israel, Liberia, Libya, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, South Africa, Serbia, Syria, Tanzania, Uganda, Ukraine, US and Zimbabwe.

– Foreign Reporter of the Year (2015) and Columnist of the Year (2015) in British Press Awards – a unique double win. Winner of London Press Club’s prestigious Edgar Wallace Award (2014) for fine writing and reporting. Highly commended as Foreign Reporter (2011) and Feature Writer (2013 & 2017) in British Press Awards. Shortlisted in 16 other awards for columns, feature writing, foreign and news reporting, economic analysis, political journalism, science writing and ‘contrarianism’ since 2011.)


https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1029434089621868544

An extension doesn't put anything to bed however?

It offers an extension to the UK to clarify its internal political position, but the same issues will remain.

Econ__

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

An extension doesn't put anything to bed however?

It offers an extension to the UK to clarify its internal political position, but the same issues will remain.

I think it's fair to assume that any extension would be dependent on a commitment that the UK is moving towards a different strategy, and one that is acceptable to the EU.

Leroy42

It would be interesting what basis the UK would ask for an extension of A50. Clearly, everyone knows that many of the problems have been created by the UK's own failures. Failure to plan, to have a clear position, to stick to the December agreement.

If all they can offer is that an extension might lead to something, then the EU will be looking for something pretty definitive (maybe not publicly) in terms of where this is going. On the other hand, an extension does give the EU more time to prepare for a hard brexit. But how long an extension. EU budgets and elections are fast approaching.

Will it be on the basis that a no deal is still possible and this this is a few weeks grace? The EU seem to be more prepared for the no deal than the UK, so not sure what benefit a simple extension would provide.

May has quite publicly spend the last few weeks trying to go over Barniers head, that doesn't inspire confidence that the UK is genuinely working on securing a deal.

Strazdas

demfad wrote: »

This is from the very reputable source of Ian Birrel (credits just below), and is the likely (perhaps only) way for the Brexit disaster to be put to bed:

(– Contributing editor of The Mail on Sunday as foreign reporter and commentator. Weekly column in the ‘i’ paper. Also writes for The Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Mail, The Observer, The Daily Telegraph, The Guardian, The Sun, The Spectator and Mosaic. Previously published in many other papers, platforms and magazines.

– Foreign correspondent who has reported from more than 50 countries including Albania, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, France, Gabon, Ghana, Greece, Haiti, Iraq, Israel, Liberia, Libya, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, South Africa, Serbia, Syria, Tanzania, Uganda, Ukraine, US and Zimbabwe.

– Foreign Reporter of the Year (2015) and Columnist of the Year (2015) in British Press Awards – a unique double win. Winner of London Press Club’s prestigious Edgar Wallace Award (2014) for fine writing and reporting. Highly commended as Foreign Reporter (2011) and Feature Writer (2013 & 2017) in British Press Awards. Shortlisted in 16 other awards for columns, feature writing, foreign and news reporting, economic analysis, political journalism, science writing and ‘contrarianism’ since 2011.)


https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1029434089621868544

Interesting to hear and I don't doubt it might be true. You'd wonder what a 'second referendum' on these terms would be like though. There seems to be literally millions of ideological Brexiteers who would be railing against all of this.

trellheim

These are civil servants NOT politicians. An A50 extension is a political matter and it would predictably cause ructions in Conservatives.


Also - didn't EU Comm say A50 extension only viable off the back of different politics in the UK ?

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

It would be interesting what basis the UK would ask for an extension of A50. Clearly, everyone knows that many of the problems have been created by the UK's own failures. Failure to plan, to have a clear position, to stick to the December agreement.

If all they can offer is that an extension might lead to something, then the EU will be looking for something pretty definitive (maybe not publicly) in terms of where this is going. On the other hand, an extension does give the EU more time to prepare for a hard brexit. But how long an extension. EU budgets and elections are fast approaching.

Will it be on the basis that a no deal is still possible and this this is a few weeks grace? The EU seem to be more prepared for the no deal than the UK, so not sure what benefit a simple extension would provide.

May has quite publicly spend the last few weeks trying to go over Barniers head, that doesn't inspire confidence that the UK is genuinely working on securing a deal.

There'd be the reason given, ie time to ensure a smooth transition for both sides coupled with a tacit acknowledgement that the whole affair is a farce on both sides.

How it would square with EU budgets is an excellent question unless the time were fixed in advance along with a commitment that the UK would pay full member dues, ideally with the rebate scrapped .

Personally, I'm hoping that it gives the movement for an informed referendum more time to gain traction so that this madness can be aborted before we all jump of the cliff edge for no good reason.

demfad

Strazdas wrote: »

Interesting to hear and I don't doubt it might be true. You'd wonder what a 'second referendum' on these terms would be like though. There seems to be literally millions of ideological Brexiteers who would be railing against all of this.

Further down the thread he confirms it will be between whatever deal May gets from the EU (not Checkers) and the Status quo.
The EU would have to have a clear sequence of events in order to get unanimous approval. The A50 extension would be on the basis of a referendum taking place.
The ideological Brexiters can make their case in the second referendum. Both Rees Mogg and Farage have previously suggested a second referendum: Mogg before the first and Farage as recently as '17.
Therre is a lot of barking, but when it really boils down to it there may not be as many dogs as you imagine.

ancapailldorcha

demfad wrote: »

Further down the thread he confirms it will be between whatever deal May gets from the EU (not Checkers) and the Status quo.
The EU would have to have a clear sequence of events in order to get unanimous approval. The A50 extension would be on the basis of a referendum taking place.
The ideological Brexiters can make their case in the second referendum. Both Rees Mogg and Farage have previously suggested a second referendum: Mogg before the first and Farage as recently as '17.
Therre is a lot of barking, but when it really boils down to it there may not be as many dogs as you imagine.

As an addendum, Farage suggested a second referendum as recently as this year:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42649214

Spook_ie

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There'd be the reason given, ie time to ensure a smooth transition for both sides coupled with a tacit acknowledgement that the whole affair is a farce on both sides.

How it would square with EU budgets is an excellent question unless the time were fixed in advance along with a commitment that the UK would pay full member dues, ideally with the rebate scrapped .

Personally, I'm hoping that it gives the movement for an informed referendum more time to gain traction so that this madness can be aborted before we all jump of the cliff edge for no good reason.

And people claim that Brexit want their cake!

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There'd be the reason given, ie time to ensure a smooth transition for both sides coupled with a tacit acknowledgement that the whole affair is a farce on both sides.

How it would square with EU budgets is an excellent question unless the time were fixed in advance along with a commitment that the UK would pay full member dues, ideally with the rebate scrapped .

Personally, I'm hoping that it gives the movement for an informed referendum more time to gain traction so that this madness can be aborted before we all jump of the cliff edge for no good reason.

Can you explain this a bit more

ancapailldorcha

listermint wrote: »

Can you explain this a bit more

Both sides know it's a farce but have to be diplomatic to each other. Well, the EU does. The Tories have a rabid Eurosceptic press owned by three or four people to pander to.

Strazdas

demfad wrote: »

Further down the thread he confirms it will be between whatever deal May gets from the EU (not Checkers) and the Status quo.
The EU would have to have a clear sequence of events in order to get unanimous approval. The A50 extension would be on the basis of a referendum taking place.
The ideological Brexiters can make their case in the second referendum. Both Rees Mogg and Farage have previously suggested a second referendum: Mogg before the first and Farage as recently as '17.
Therre is a lot of barking, but when it really boils down to it there may not be as many dogs as you imagine.

Even if the second referendum went ahead (and I would have no problem with the idea), I'd be wary of it being as divisive as the first one. There seems to be at least 10m hardcore Brexiteers / EU haters in the UK, maybe even more than that.

Having said that, I can't think of a single solution to the Brexit fiasco that will not be divisive and rancorous for the British people. A lot of people will be angry no matter which way this ends up.

breatheme

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an addendum, Farage suggested a second referendum as recently as this year:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42649214

Call me crazy, but I reckon he knows that after a cliff-edge Brexit he and his party will be super irrelevant.

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Both sides know it's a farce but have to be diplomatic to each other. Well, the EU does. The Tories have a rabid Eurosceptic press owned by three or four people to pander to.

You framed it in a manner that made it appear that both sides were acting farcical. When it is evident that is the UK's remit.

demfad

Strazdas wrote: »

Even if the second referendum went ahead (and I would have no problem with the idea), I'd be wary of it being as divisive as the first one. There seems to be at least 10m hardcore Brexiteers / EU haters in the UK, maybe even more than that.

Having said that, I can't think of a single solution to the Brexit fiasco that will not be divisive and rancorous for the British people. A lot of people will be angry no matter which way this ends up.

The opportunity for lies etc will be diminished. A fact based referendum should be the least divisive and lease damaging for UK. This is before we count the potential disaster averted.

ancapailldorcha

breatheme wrote: »

Call me crazy, but I reckon he knows that after a cliff-edge Brexit he and his party will be super irrelevant.

Of course. However, it's not like he can just return to trading where a reputation of trust is paramount so he's back desperately trying to cling to relevancy

listermint wrote: »

You framed it in a manner that made it appear that both sides were acting farcical. When it is evident that is the UK's remit.

Yeah, looks like that alright.

briany

A second referendum where the choice is: Accept the deal on offer, or keep things the same, would work for staving off Brexit for now, but you can imagine how Brexiteers will take it. They will accuse May and the EU of colluding to keep the UK perpetually captive within the EU by only offering the choices of sh*t deal or stay. I think that in the overall saga between the UK and the EU it would be only one battle rather than the war.

Leroy42

briany wrote: »

They will accuse May and the EU of colluding to keep the UK perpetually captive within the EU by only offering the choices of sh*t deal or stay. I think that in the overall saga between the UK and the EU it would be only one battle rather than the war.

This has been the governments position from Day 1. They can't detail their plans are agree to not taking a no deal as this would simply mean the EU will screw them.

So you will have the Brexiteers screaming (it has already started) that the EU is forcing the UK to stay in the EU because they know TM is weak. Get Boris or Trump to sort them out.

And plenty of people will believe it. You can bet you'll even have the likes of Davies claiming that if only he had been in charge things would be different!

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

A second referendum where the choice is: Accept the deal on offer, or keep things the same, would work for staving off Brexit for now, but you can imagine how Brexiteers will take it. They will accuse May and the EU of colluding to keep the UK perpetually captive within the EU by only offering the choices of sh*t deal or stay. I think that in the overall saga between the UK and the EU it would be only one battle rather than the war.

A lot of them will claim the second referendum itself is undemocratic and should not be taking place. So it's not necessarily even the result of it that would be the problem. They will claim the second referendum itself is the problem and an outrage and 'a violation of the 2016 result' etc.

demfad

BTW From the twitter post/thread on A50 extension he was asked:

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1029549492725600257

He replied:

https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1029591171977359366

This means:
1: A50 extension connected to REF2
2: Vote will be on whatever deal May negotiates Vs Status quo.

e.g Q: Do you wish to accept the deal negotiated between HM Govt and the EU on UK withdrawal? (yes/No) No=Remain

The question might be: what Conservative PM would call such a referendum that would surely end their career?
Her career will end no matter what. This will at least give her a decent legacy.

judeboy101

Econ__ wrote: »

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

An extension doesn't put anything to bed however?

It offers an extension to the UK to clarify its internal political position, but the same issues will remain.

I think it's fair to assume that any extension would be dependent on a commitment that the UK is moving towards a different strategy, and one that is acceptable to the EU.

We should not accept an extension without a 100% signed by the ghost-of-cromwell-himself-backstop. We would be better letting them crash and picking up Ni on the cheap in 5 yrs time.

lawred2

Why would the EU give a toss as to whether a second referendum was on offer?

Why would it be linked to an extension?

First Up

briany wrote: »

A second referendum where the choice is: Accept the deal on offer, or keep things the same, would work for staving off Brexit for now, but you can imagine how Brexiteers will take it. They will accuse May and the EU of colluding to keep the UK perpetually captive within the EU by only offering the choices of sh*t deal or stay. I think that in the overall saga between the UK and the EU it would be only one battle rather than the war.

No it wouldn't and I don't know how often this needs to be explained.
The UK government has triggered A50. That process is underway and could only be halted if (a) the UK government asks and (b) if the EU agrees.
An internal UK referendum has no standing.

Folkstonian

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

It would be interesting what basis the UK would ask for an extension of A50. Clearly, everyone knows that many of the problems have been created by the UK's own failures. Failure to plan, to have a clear position, to stick to the December agreement.

If all they can offer is that an extension might lead to something, then the EU will be looking for something pretty definitive (maybe not publicly) in terms of where this is going. On the other hand, an extension does give the EU more time to prepare for a hard brexit. But how long an extension. EU budgets and elections are fast approaching.

Will it be on the basis that a no deal is still possible and this this is a few weeks grace? The EU seem to be more prepared for the no deal than the UK, so not sure what benefit a simple extension would provide.

May has quite publicly spend the last few weeks trying to go over Barniers head, that doesn't inspire confidence that the UK is genuinely working on securing a deal.

There'd be the reason given, ie time to ensure a smooth transition for both sides coupled with a tacit acknowledgement that the whole affair is a farce on both sides.

How it would square with EU budgets is an excellent question unless the time were fixed in advance along with a commitment that the UK would pay full member dues, ideally with the rebate scrapped .

Personally, I'm hoping that it gives the movement for an informed referendum more time to gain traction so that this madness can be aborted before we all jump of the cliff edge for no good reason.

I’m not sure that anyone benefits if the EU go out of their way to insert punishment and humiliation clauses into any agreement to reverse Brexit.

If a second referendum happened, the potential swing would be a few percentages points at most.

Taking back the financial rebate and any other opt outs would cause lots of issues in selling a turnaround to voters, and solve absolutely none.

Imreoir2

I'm not at all sure that a second referendum is the get out of jail card people think it is. If a second referendum is held, I fear a backlash in the UK and another leave vote.

They have been told for over two years that their choice the last time was stupid, and now they are going to be asked to fix their mistake. While there has been a trend to remain over recent months in the polls, that is without a second referendum being called. If another ref were to be organised, I think another FU to the powers that be is a more likely result than a contrite population humbly accepting the whole thing being swept under the carpet.

Bigus

lawred2 wrote: »

Why would the EU give a toss as to whether a second referendum was on offer?

Why would it be linked to an extension?

Because the EU would like Britain to stay , and will facilitate this if it can.

Separately if there is a second referendum, expats British should be encouraged to fly home and vote just like the LGBT people did successfully here.

lawred2

Bigus wrote: »

Because the EU would like Britain to stay , and will facilitate this if it can.

Separately if there is a second referendum, expats British should be encouraged to fly home and vote just like the LGBT people did successfully here.

But the offer of something that has no guaranteed result by a government who will likely campaign against the EU is not anything of any worth to the EU as far as I can see...

The time for the UK government offering empty pledges is past. An extended transition arrangement has to come with something of actual value to EU member states.

Like special status for NI and it remaining in the customs union.

listermint

lawred2 wrote: »

But the offer of something that has no guaranteed result by a government who will likely campaign against the EU is not anything of any worth to the EU as far as I can see...

The time for the UK government offering empty pledges is past. An extended transition arrangement has to come with something of actual value to EU member states.

Like special status for NI and it remaining in the customs union.

But it does come with something of value , Closing out this nonsense altogether.

REF2 would kill the brexit plan dead. Its evident the tide turned against the lies. and more people that are impacted will be engaged to vote this time out.

The minority of crazys will be shown exactly what demoracy means.

Folkstonian

Ive come to realise that second referendum would be such an undignified mess that I just don’t think it will happen.

There’s a movement amongst leave voters that’s apparently now gaining traction which calls on those who voted leave first time around to boycott a hypothetical second vote

Could you imagine the chaos that would unfold in the UK on the back of a second referendum in which remain won by 15m to 1m because sos many people refused to recognise the legitimacy of the referendum?

Realistically I think the government and political class need to be focusing on damage limitation, not reversal.

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

But it does come with something of value , Closing out this nonsense altogether.

REF2 would kill the brexit plan dead. Its evident the tide turned against the lies. and more people that are impacted will be engaged to vote this time out.

The minority of crazys will be shown exactly what demoracy means.

It comes with a chance of killing Brexit.