Brexit discussion thread IV

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

Why would the EU give a toss as to whether a second referendum was on offer?

Why would it be linked to an extension?

They would only give the UK an extension if there was a clear sign that a major shift was on the way. They wouldn't just give it so Britain could continue to argue with itself and the hard Brexiteers over what to do. The UK would have to be telling the EU 'we'll accept such and such a deal but just need a couple more months to get our affairs in order or to ratify it with a referendum'.

Lemming

Folkstonian wrote: »

Ive come to realise that second referendum would be such an undignified mess that I just don’t think it will happen.

There’s a movement amongst leave voters that’s apparently now gaining traction which calls on those who voted leave first time around to boycott a hypothetical second vote

Could you imagine the chaos that would unfold in the UK on the back of a second referendum in which remain won by 15m to 1m because sos many people refused to recognise the legitimacy of the referendum?

The majority of the UK voting-age public did not vote to Leave. But due to an absolute lack of .. well ... anything ... the government ran the referendum like it was FPTP, so 50+1 wins so sad boo hoo & f*ck off, etc. So I fail to see how all those leave voters boycotting a vote would do anything, because .. well ... FPTP, so 50+1 wins so sad boo hoo & f*ck off, etc.

What's sauce for the goose and all of that. Vote Leave have been claiming "they won get over it" for 2 years so to turn around and cry foul on such terms is just beyond hypocritical.

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

Ive come to realise that second referendum would be such an undignified mess that I just don’t think it will happen.

There’s a movement amongst leave voters that’s apparently now gaining traction which calls on those who voted leave first time around to boycott a hypothetical second vote

Could you imagine the chaos that would unfold in the UK on the back of a second referendum in which remain won by 15m to 1m because sos many people refused to recognise the legitimacy of the referendum?

Realistically I think the government and political class need to be focusing on damage limitation, not reversal.

They can boycott it all they like, their 'will of the people crap' is exposed for what it is.

A little minority of liars and cheats trying to steer an entire country for their own financial benefit.

Simple as that.

Leave would lose hard.

demfad

lawred2 wrote: »

It comes with a chance of killing Brexit.

The extension of A50 must be linked to something as otherwise it could be used as a negotiating tactic by the UK. The fact that politicians in the UK seem to be paralysed leads to a referendum as a likely way to get past the impasse on voting on a deal.
So A50 will be extended to allow the negotiations to conclude followed by a referendum in the UK on the terms.
This solves the problems of:
1) A50's 2 year stopwatch not being fir for purpose
2) The UK electorate actually voting on something tangible (a negotiated deal).

The deal needs to be reasonable for both the UK and the EU (incase they vote leave again).

Make no mistake stopping Brexit is a massive deal both for the EU and globally.
It is of massive existential benefit to the EU. Also it effectively deals a hammer blow to the global lurch towards the far-right, authoritanarism and even fascism.

If it is stopped it will not go unnoticed that Ireland were the ones that put a spanner in the works. It will be something for us to be quietly proud of.

Silent Running

listermint wrote: »

They can boycott it all they like, their 'will of the people crap' is exposed for what it is.

A little minority of liars and cheats trying to steer an entire country for their own financial benefit.

Simple as that.

Leave would lose hard.

Not even slightly convinced this would be the case. There are a lot of leavers who think that Britain would be fine on it's own and want to get on with it. They are England after all!

listermint

Silent Running wrote: »

Not even slightly convinced this would be the case. There are a lot of leavers who think that Britain would be fine on it's own and want to get on with it. They are England after all!

They are a minority. a large minority.

A new vote would show what the true feelings are. en masse

Silent Running

listermint wrote: »

They are a minority. a large minority.

A new vote would show what the true feelings are. en masse

I'm not sure what you're basing this on. I was in the UK for a fortnight last month. I don't know if this is a Hertfordshire thing, but anyone I spoke to about Brexit wanted to get on with it and move on from there. They are convinced Blighty would forge ahead in the world. There were very few voices saying it should be reversed. Even most of the leave voters just wanted to get on with it now.

robinph

Bigus wrote: »

Because the EU would like Britain to stay , and will facilitate this if it can.

Separately if there is a second referendum, expats British should be encouraged to fly home and vote just like the LGBT people did successfully here.

I'll just point out that any Irish citizens would get a vote as well if the just happened to be registered as "living" in the UK on the appropriate date before the vote, British citizens living in the rest of the EU would also need to have "returned" to live by the right date as well. No point in inviting any other EU citizens over to the UK to join in though as they wouldn't get a vote.

ancapailldorcha

listermint wrote: »

They are a minority. a large minority.

A new vote would show what the true feelings are. en masse

This relies heavily on young voters actually getting off their backsides and voting this time. From the BBC:

lawred2

demfad wrote: »

The extension of A50 must be linked to something as otherwise it could be used as a negotiating tactic by the UK. The fact that politicians in the UK seem to be paralysed leads to a referendum as a likely way to get past the impasse on voting on a deal.
So A50 will be extended to allow the negotiations to conclude followed by a referendum in the UK on the terms.
This solves the problems of:
1) A50's 2 year stopwatch not being fir for purpose
2) The UK electorate actually voting on something tangible (a negotiated deal).

The deal needs to be reasonable for both the UK and the EU (incase they vote leave again).

Make no mistake stopping Brexit is a massive deal both for the EU and globally.
It is of massive existential benefit to the EU. Also it effectively deals a hammer blow to the global lurch towards the far-right, authoritanarism and even fascism.

If it is stopped it will not go unnoticed that Ireland were the ones that put a spanner in the works. It will be something for us to be quietly proud of.

yeah and how will the EU forcing a second referendum on the British public be seen by an already europhobic electorate.. Even if that's not reality - that's exactly how it will be twisted and distorted.

even those jaded and waning Brexit voters will be reenergised to head out to vote against another European affront..

A second referendum could be in the offing but I think it needs to come from Westminster.

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This relies heavily on young voters actually getting off their backsides and voting this time. From the BBC:

graphs like that really turn my stomach..

auld lads and ladies voting for a future that those with longest to live in that future don't want

trellheim

I'm not at all sure that a second referendum is the get out of jail card people think it is. If a second referendum is held, I fear a backlash in the UK and another leave vote.

They have been told for over two years that their choice the last time was stupid, and now they are going to be asked to fix their mistake. While there has been a trend to remain over recent months in the polls, that is without a second referendum being called. If another ref were to be organised, I think another FU to the powers that be is a more likely result than a contrite population humbly accepting the whole thing being swept under the carpet.

If you recall we got a deal on Lisbon - no common defence or whatever protocol that was what made it different and go through the second time. This did not change TFEU at all tho. However it was enough to get it over the line. Not sure what the EU can offer " no Polish electricians " or something ? Joking aside It would have to be FOM related though to have any chance and I believe strongly if pressure was put you'd see something small here.

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

yeah and how will the EU forcing a second referendum on the British public be seen by an already europhobic electorate.. Even if that's not reality - that's exactly how it will be twisted and distorted.

even those jaded and waning Brexit voters will be reenergised to head out to vote against another European affront..

A second referendum could be in the offing but I think it needs to come from Westminster.

It definitely would be nothing to do with the EU anyway. The EU don't hold referendums, nor encourage them or comment on them. How individual member states draw up their laws is a matter for them, nothing to do with the EU.

UK referendums are advisory and of even less importance than the Irish ones, so again of no interest to the EU.

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

graphs like that really turn my stomach..

auld lads and ladies voting for a future that those with longest to live in that future don't want

I'm convinced that this is going to be remembered as one of the greatest political gaffes of all time. I think it even exceeds "Peace for our time".

trellheim wrote: »

If you recall we got a deal on Lisbon - no common defence or whatever protocol that was what made it different and go through the second time. This did not change TFEU at all tho. However it was enough to get it over the line. Not sure what the EU can offer " no Polish electricians " or something ? Joking aside It would have to be FOM related though to have any chance and I believe strongly if pressure was put you'd see something small here.

I don't know. Look at how the UK government has handled this. It has never got past the initial hurdle of negotiating with itself. Fact of the matter is that this has been a disaster from day one. The one thing that has always protected the British establishment was its competence but that's been blown out of the water and it never ceases to beggar belief that people like Boris Johnson managed to retain power. It's been weird seeing the Conservative party, erstwhile (in the eyes of the general public) the party of big business, prudent spending, protecting British culture and ultimately, the "safe" party disintegrate the way that it has which is all the more damning an indictment of the current shambles that is Labour.

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This relies heavily on young voters actually getting off their backsides and voting this time. From the BBC:

Absolutely fascinating poll. Puts paid to the old phrase 'older and wiser'.

J Mysterio

lawred2 wrote: »

graphs like that really turn my stomach..

auld lads and ladies voting for a future that those with longest to live in that future don't want

Indeed. The auld wans who benefited from the growth the UK saw as part of the EU now want to pull the rug from the youth and not give them the same benefit.

Even one thing as simple as thr Erasmus programme is a big loss.

breatheme

Right now both Labour and the Tories are in shambles. Britain is essentially bipartisan so the whole country is in shambles. The Tories have never given any indication of what kind of Brexit they wanted, and neither has Labour. I wish Labour would come out with their own position paper to see how it would compare. It could not possibly be worse than Chequers, could it?

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm convinced that this is going to be remembered as one of the greatest political gaffes of all time. I think it even exceeds "Peace for our time".

You'd have to expect that the majority of young people in Britain will not forget that this is solely of Tory making...

Although they'll probably remember that the Labour party have done next to nothing to stop it.

Not a great time to be young and British.

demfad

lawred2 wrote: »

yeah and how will the EU forcing a second referendum on the British public be seen by an already europhobic electorate.. Even if that's not reality - that's exactly how it will be twisted and distorted.

even those jaded and waning Brexit voters will be reenergised to head out to vote against another European affront..

A second referendum could be in the offing but I think it needs to come from Westminster.

Of course it will come from Westminster. Public opinion is for a second referendum anyway under any circumstances, doubly so if no deal is negotiated.
Ofcourse the Tory right, RW media, alt-right, Russians etc will try and wage a media campaign. But all the lies they told the first time have been debunked.
And the fact that they lied the first time and broke the law will mean less will believe them the second time.
Also they will not have the financial and coordination advantage ofrom the criminal acts of election fraud committed last time.
So, no campaigns coordinating and paying AIQ (Cambridge Analytica) over half the total campaign fund. No Cambridge Analytica to distort and spread fake news. And Facebook more vigilent stung by the massive wallops they got already through association with Cambridge Analytica, AIQ and others.
Also, the actual impact reports on Brexit will be released inf ull, showing exactly how badly the main Brexit voting areas will be hit by Brexit.
There will be no protest votes as people are fully aware of whats at stake.
A youGov poll last week showed that 100 leave voting seats have now switched remain.
If there is another referendum, and it has public support, Brexit is over.
Sure the RW press will be pissed. But this is the best possible outcome.

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This relies heavily on young voters actually getting off their backsides and voting this time. From the BBC:

I think the graph is accurate for the timeframe,

I think you need a new graph for current trends.

Which indicate everything included the middle age brackets have turned.

Why use a graph from May June i dont know as alot more as come out and Brexit is hurting folks now.

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

Indeed. The auld wans who benefited from the growth the UK saw as part of the EU now want to pull the rug from the youth and not give them the same benefit.

Even one thing as simple as thr Erasmus programme is a big loss.

Which naturally enough the oldies have no idea about.

As I've said for many reasons and on many threads they truly are the worst generation.

See the indyref in Scotland for similar

lawred2

demfad wrote: »

Of course it will come from Westminster. Public opinion is for a second referendum anyway under any circumstances, doubly so if no deal is negotiated.
Ofcourse the Tory right, RW media, alt-right, Russians etc will try and wage a media campaign. But all the lies they told the first time have been debunked.
And the fact that they lied the first time and broke the law will mean less will believe them the second time.
Also they will not have the financial and coordination advantage ofrom the criminal acts of election fraud committed last time.
So, no campaigns coordinating and paying AIQ (Cambridge Analytica) over half the total campaign fund. No Cambridge Analytica to distort and spread fake news. And Facebook more vigilent stung by the massive wallops they got already through association with Cambridge Analytica, AIQ and others.
Also, the actual impact reports on Brexit will be released inf ull, showing exactly how badly the main Brexit voting areas will be hit by Brexit.
There will be no protest votes as people are fully aware of whats at stake.
A youGov poll last week showed that 100 leave voting seats have now switched remain.
If there is another referendum, and it has public support, Brexit is over.
Sure the RW press will be pissed. But this is the best possible outcome.

So this can be done tomorrow. Why should the EU link this with an extension to A50?

breatheme

lawred2 wrote: »

You'd have to expect that the majority of young people will Britain will not forget that this is solely of Tory making...

Although they'll probably remember that the Labour party have done next to nothing to stop it.

Not a great time to be young and British.

I think Labour's strategy has been something like "we shall sit on on our hands and let the Tories **** Brexit up." If Labour actually came into power, they would also have no idea what to do. And they're not planning for it either. They are truly banking on the Tories to carry on till Brexit day. Talk about a lame duck party. What a useless opposition.

Well, that was a bit of a rant, sorry about that.

The party that has taken a stand against the Tories is the SNP. If Labour acted anything like them they would be a credible opposition.

trellheim

I think Labour's strategy has been something like "we shall sit on on our hands and let the Tories **** Brexit up." If Labour actually came into power, they would also have no idea what to do. And they're not planning for it either. They are truly banking on the Tories to carry on till Brexit day. Talk about a lame duck party. What a useless opposition.

Labour campaigned for Remain. Milne and Corbyn however were extremely lukewarm due to their ideological opposition. This remains the case and now the referendum result means they can press on with said opposition. The top tier of the Labour party do NOT see Brexit as wrong. They see the chaos/chequers BS - yes, as wrong, but NOT brexit itself.

First Up

lawred2 wrote: »

demfad wrote: »

Of course it will come from Westminster. Public opinion is for a second referendum anyway under any circumstances, doubly so if no deal is negotiated.
Ofcourse the Tory right, RW media, alt-right, Russians etc will try and wage a media campaign. But all the lies they told the first time have been debunked.
And the fact that they lied the first time and broke the law will mean less will believe them the second time.
Also they will not have the financial and coordination advantage ofrom the criminal acts of election fraud committed last time.
So, no campaigns coordinating and paying AIQ (Cambridge Analytica) over half the total campaign fund. No Cambridge Analytica to distort and spread fake news. And Facebook more vigilent stung by the massive wallops they got already through association with Cambridge Analytica, AIQ and others.
Also, the actual impact reports on Brexit will be released inf ull, showing exactly how badly the main Brexit voting areas will be hit by Brexit.
There will be no protest votes as people are fully aware of whats at stake.
A youGov poll last week showed that 100 leave voting seats have now switched remain.
If there is another referendum, and it has public support, Brexit is over.
Sure the RW press will be pissed. But this is the best possible outcome.

So this can be done tomorrow. Why should the EU link this with an extension to A50?

The EU only talks to the UK govt. The UK govt. invoked A50 and only the UK govt. can try to revoke it. How it might get to make such a decision is not the EU's problem and it certainly won't be getting involved.

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

So this can be done tomorrow. Why should the EU link this with an extension to A50?

Yes, it's not a referendum that would make them give an extension to A50. It would have to be something directly linked to the withdrawal agreement and the talks : a referendum would be a complete sideshow.

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This relies heavily on young voters actually getting off their backsides and voting this time. From the BBC:

Conservative voters dying out at rate of 2% per year, Lord Heseltine warns

The insanity of Brexit is that demographics alone would change the vote by the end of any transition period.

lawred2 wrote: »

graphs like that really turn my stomach..

auld lads and ladies voting for a future that those with longest to live in that future don't want

You want selfish ?
39% of all Leave voters would also be willing for their own family members to lose their jobs as a price for Brexit

An interesting stat is that the generation that fought in WWII voted remain. It was the "never had it so good" brigade on their triple locked pensions going "I'm alright Jack". Perhaps if they could be shown how the lack of tax revenue and EU workers will affect the NHS they might change their tune.

breatheme

Hmm. I don't trust the British Government enough to see them do a second referendum. But that could mean the younger generation could rejoin in 5-10 years. No rebate. Euro. Schengen. No more special concessions.

But can the UK survive that long?

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm convinced that this is going to be remembered as one of the greatest political gaffes of all time. I think it even exceeds "Peace for our time".

Between them France, the UK , Poland and Czech's could probably have tied up Germany. Instead it was divide an conquer.

Before WWII the UK was a superpower.

After they were in debt and worse they had to hand over the family silver to the USA, penecillin , radar, computers, jet engines , atomic technology. Huge brain drain, rationing for years.


And they want to repeat that experience ?

Akrasia

breatheme wrote: »

I think Labour's strategy has been something like "we shall sit on on our hands and let the Tories **** Brexit up." If Labour actually came into power, they would also have no idea what to do. And they're not planning for it either. They are truly banking on the Tories to carry on till Brexit day. Talk about a lame duck party. What a useless opposition.

Well, that was a bit of a rant, sorry about that.

The party that has taken a stand against the Tories is the SNP. If Labour acted anything like them they would be a credible opposition.

I'm firmly convinced that if Labour had campaigned on a no brexit platform at the last GE that they would have had enough seats to form a government and we wouldn't have had any of this car crash since May activated article 50