Brexit discussion thread IV

lapua20grain

Interesting article on the lack of preparation in the Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/15/chris-grayling-has-no-credible-plan-no-deal-brexit-road-hauliers/
was at a transport conference in the UK and the prevailing sense is that the British government have no plan and there is serious fear within the industry that a lot of companies will end up going belly up.

Rhineshark

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/brexit-is-impossible-to-call-fitch-ratings-says-2018-8

Headline: One of the world's largest ratings agencies on Brexit: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah...that's about right.

It seems to have slipped under the radar in relation to markets or media, maybe due to the interest rates rise, although one of the big credit rating agencies saying it's too complicated to call and there's no particular likely outcome should be troubling. Although it's only one alarm amongst many going off.

Cookie_Monster

Corb_lund wrote: »

Out of curiosity does anyone see anything positive from brexit? All the forums I'm in seem to be negative only. Is there truly no upswing?

Positive for Europe and the EU in that that whiney, complaining, dissenting voice in the background will be gone. Aside from that there's not much though

Strazdas

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Positive for Europe and the EU in that that whiney, complaining, dissenting voice in the background will be gone. Aside from that there's not much though

It may well destroy British Euroscepticism as a movement or ideology. You can hardly be a Eurosceptic if you're not a member of the EU.

This could simply be replaced by right wing populism in the UK though : anti-immigration, anti-Muslim etc.

Peregrinus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Neither, it seems, does the EU...
EU fears Brexit talks are being bugged by British secret service
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/eu-fears-brexit-talks-are-being-bugged-by-british-secret-service-37220939.html

Rhineshark wrote: »

It sounds crazy but...it would fit the MO so far >.<

It does sound crazy, but remember it's only a couple of years since it emerged that the US under the Obama administration had been doing precisely this to the German government at the highest level.

On the other hand, from the newspaper report:

"Sabine Weyand, the deputy chief negotiator, told EU officials attending the meeting of the European Council's Article 50 working party that there was a possibility that British intelligence had penetrated their meetings, the source said.

The EU's fears were spawned after British negotiators obtained the contents of a politically explosive slide presentation almost immediately after they were shared on July 5 - a day before British Prime Minister Theresa May's Chequers summit where the Cabinet agreed a plan for Brexit to put to Brussels."

When a document is in the hands of the UK "almost immediately after it was shared" at a meeting attended by representatives of the each of the EU-27, I'm thinking the most likely explanation is that it was leaked by someone with whom it was shared. The "we must have been bugged!" line is either drama, or a convenient device to avoid a possibly embarrassing witch-hunt for a leaker.

Recall what unfolded after the presentation, and the leak to/bugging by the UK. The UK made immediate and strong representations, asking the EU not to publish the presentation (which would, basically, hole Chequers below the waterline even before Chequers was published). The EU not only held off on publication, but were remarkably kind and restrained in their initial comments on Chequers. They didn't really shoot it down until two or three weeks later, which was well after most of the independent commentary had already said "this won't fly - the EU can't accept it".

According to reports, a number of countries at the presentation, including Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy "cautioned the Commission on the political sensitivity of the situation". In other words, they didn't want Chequers publicly torpedoed right from the get-go. This doesn't necessarily mean that they though the Chequers deal was a good, or even viable, one; just that, tactically, the EU shouldn't appear to be too intransigent or inflexible.

It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that one of these countries, or another, leaked the presentation to the UK so that the UK could add its voice to those urging caution, and a moderate response.

BonnieSituation

That would be The Dutch then.

Peregrinus

It could have been us, Bonnie!

ambro25

Corb_lund wrote: »

Out of curiosity does anyone see anything positive from brexit? All the forums I'm in seem to be negative only. Is there truly no upswing?

It is, as ever, a question of perspective.

If you take UK population & immigration stats since the referendum, EU27 immigration levels have by now been severely curbed, before even the U.K. leaving the EU.

For the Leave voters preoccupied mainly by immigration, then and since, that can only be a ‘positive’, technically a genuine ‘win’ (notwithstanding its socio-economic cost, of course).

gimli2112

Peregrinus wrote: »

It could have been us, Bonnie!

Saw this earlier and thought there's no way the Irish government would sanction this, then realised all the UK would have to do is find an Irish politician to corrupt. Be hell to pay if it was proven, I imagine but probably not treason level.

Peregrinus

I kind of doubt that it was us, actually.

But, if it was a leak, I don't think it was a leak secured by corrupting someone. It's much more likely to have been a leak that happened because the leaker judged it to be in their interests - e.g. they wanted the EU to soft-pedal this thing, and they though that was more likely to happen if the UK got to hear about it. And if you're looking at member states that might want to soft-pedal the leaked analysis, well,we might be one.

cml387

It would be unusual if there wasn't leaking going on. Nothing sinister at all, just he said-she said. Journalist hears and it's out.

"The ship of state is the only ship that leaks from the top" -Yes minister.

Peregrinus

cml387 wrote: »

It would be unusual if there wasn't leaking going on. Nothing sinister at all, just he said-she said. Journalist hears and it's out.

This one is a bit more than a journalist overhearing something. Within a very short time of the meeting, the UK had a physical (or digital?) copy of the presentation given at the meeting. So either they stole it, or somebody intentionally handed it to them. Either is possible, but the latter is probably more likely.

seamus

Given that using modern devices, you can scan and email a 100-page document in about 5 minutes, I think an intentional leak is the most likely thing here. Someone left the meeting, went into an office, scanned it and emailed it. The UK would have had it before anyone at the meeting had even left the building.

RobAMerc

But was it an individual acting in their interest or was it the communal plan to leak it ?

trellheim

Occams razor in political leaks says its always deliberate ... that is your starting point unless proven otherwise . If it was secret in the actual sense then people would be fired immediately, in politicians cases it would be a resigning matter. ( Trump's FBI and CIA etc are exceptions at the moment to this point )

Dymo

Corb_lund wrote: »

Out of curiosity does anyone see anything positive from brexit? All the forums I'm in seem to be negative only. Is there truly no upswing?

Yes there is,

If Hard Brexit happens there is going to be pain for the first couple of months and then people are just going to start getting used to it.

Queue times at borders are going to get shorter people are going to get used to the new life.

The UK government are going to try to incentivise companies in the UK to stay, they now have control of tax breaks and can offer anything they want.

But overall the pain will subside and then the UK will be where it is, and can start negotiating their own deals it still is one of the biggest economies in the world and can build a competitive economy outside the EU

There going to have control of their borders so can control immigration which is a huge factor for the UK population.

No more paying money being paid to the EU for poorer countries.

The pound sterling has never suffered the existential crisis the euro has. Sterling has been depreciated and devalued beyond recognition, but the UK has never properly defaulted on its debt.

The UK can take advantage of more efficient producers of cereals, butter, meat and all the rest, and take advantage of surpluses from across the planet. WHo cares what standards they have except a few keyboard warriors. I don't see people in the US dropping because of the food their eating.

There are people who are educated about Brexit like the majority of people reading this forum but Joe Public in the UK hasn't a clue and I believe there is a huge amount of project fear been spouted on the remain side.

There will be pain but people will get on with it the UK isn't going to disappear into the ocean

megaten

Can you explain how any of that is actually going to happen though, apart from having to eat American muck.

Imreoir2

Dymo wrote: »

Yes there is,

If Hard Brexit happens there is going to be pain for the first couple of months and then people are just going to start getting used to it.

Queue times at borders are going to get shorter people are going to get used to the new life.

The UK government are going to try to incentivise companies in the UK to stay, they now have control of tax breaks and can offer anything they want.

But overall the pain will subside and then the UK will be where it is, and can start negotiating their own deals it still is one of the biggest economies in the world and can build a competitive economy outside the EU

There going to have control of their borders so can control immigration which is a huge factor for the UK population.

No more paying money being paid to the EU for poorer countries.

The pound sterling has never suffered the existential crisis the euro has. Sterling has been depreciated and devalued beyond recognition, but the UK has never properly defaulted on its debt.

The UK can take advantage of more efficient producers of cereals, butter, meat and all the rest, and take advantage of surpluses from across the planet. WHo cares what standards they have except a few keyboard warriors. I don't see people in the US dropping because of the food their eating.

There are people who are educated about Brexit like the majority of people reading this forum but Joe Public in the UK hasn't a clue and I believe there is a huge amount of project fear been spouted on the remain side.

There will be pain but people will get on with it the UK isn't going to disappear into the ocean

How is pain followed by "getting used to it" an advantage.

Anything you said could apply to someone losing a leg. Pain, getting used to it, being forced to change to make it easier to get on with life.

Yes, the UK will survive, that is not the same thing as being better off.

Thatnastyboy

Once they 'get on with it' they'll be fine though.

All that project fear nonsense is only nonsense!

- the NI border? - If those pixie headed Irish want a border they can put one up themselves.

- Tarriffs - They will stop booking their holidays in Spain, that'll show em!

- WTO - whatever that is they will do it and be grand cos Moog said so

- Remember ww2? They will pay the EU a severance package when the EU pays them back all the money they spent saving the EU in WW2 (figures of $120bn owed to UK by EU mentioned...)


These are real extracts of things people who I am connected with on my social media feed have been saying, sharing & spreading. Also a lot of anti-muslim & anti-irish sentiment, but mostly "get on with it" style talk...



I truly despair for humanity in this age of ignorance, stupidity & blind populism

J Mysterio

Dymo wrote: »

If Hard Brexit happens there is going to be pain for the first couple of months and then people are just going to start getting used to it.

The pain will be over a number of years, possibly a decade or more. And it will be very painful.

Dymo wrote: »

Queue times at borders are going to get shorter people are going to get used to the new life.

Queue times will increase, no doubt about it. New requirements etc. etc. Still have to hire and train all the staff which are not in place.

Dymo wrote: »

The UK government are going to try to incentivise companies in the UK to stay, they now have control of tax breaks and can offer anything they want.

No incentive the UK offers will be enough for many companies who are already out or on the way out. These companies want clarity, which they still have not received. They want access to the single market or passporting, which they likely won't have.

Dymo wrote: »

There going to have control of their borders so can control immigration which is a huge factor for the UK population.

The UK was always in a position to control immigration from outside the EU, which they didn't take advantage of, despite immigration being one of the major issues. The UK will lose out from immigration from within the EU, which has already torpedoed. Young professionals, nurses, fruitpickers - they don't want to deal with the UK's bi-polar shıt.

Dymo wrote: »

No more paying money being paid to the EU for poorer countries.

The UK will lose significantky more wealth in real terms by leaving the EU than they ever paid to it by being inside. Never mind the countless ancillary benefits and EU subsidies and supports which kept poorer regions of the UK afloat.

Dymo wrote: »

The pound sterling has never suffered the existential crisis the euro has. Sterling has been depreciated and devalued beyond recognition, but the UK has never properly defaulted on its debt.

The pound Sterling is set to tank as the uncertainty continues and it becomes apparent the UK government don't know what the hell they are doing. Existential crisis? It's here, now. Th3 economy is set for a thrashing.

Dymo wrote: »

The UK can take advantage of more efficient producers of cereals, butter, meat and all the rest, and take advantage of surpluses from across the planet. WHo cares what standards they have except a few keyboard warriors. I don't see people in the US dropping because of the food their eating.

Who cares about food standards? Are you having a laugh? The people in the US arent dropping dead because of hormone beef and chlorinated chicken? Maybe not, but they are damaging their health in much more subtle ways. That food is adulterated and poor quality. Be my guest.

Dymo wrote: »

There are people who are educated about Brexit like the majority of people reading this forum but Joe Public in the UK hasn't a clue and I believe there is a huge amount of project fear been spouted on the remain side.

'Project Fear = reality, but who wants to listen to experts?

Dymo wrote: »

There will be pain but people will get on with it the UK isn't going to disappear into the ocean

It will still be there, but akin to the Mad Max Wasteland Davis quipped about.

Time to get real.

J Mysterio

Jeremy Hunt: a no-deal Brexit would be a 'mistake we would regret for generations'

Denmark says time is running out to avoid no-deal Brexit

Ratings agency Fitch sees growing risk of damaging no-deal Brexit

Funds sell UK stocks at fastest pace since Brexit vote

No-deal Brexit will be 'catastrophe' for NHS and increase risk from deadly pandemics, BMA warns

Etc.

Bit cynical

Corb_lund wrote: »

Out of curiosity does anyone see anything positive from brexit? All the forums I'm in seem to be negative only. Is there truly no upswing?

I think one of the positives will be more democratic accountability.

El Weirdo

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think one of the positives will be more democratic accountability.

Could you please expand on this? Because it sounds like it should be filed in the same drawer as "Getting our sovereignty back".

Junkyard Tom

Dymo wrote: »

If Hard Brexit happens there is going to be pain for the first couple of months and then people are just going to start getting used to it.

There won't be pain for the likes of Rees-Mogg, Sammy Wilson and other rich and well-pensioned brexidiots who live in the 19th Century.

Bit cynical

El Weirdo wrote: »

Could you please expand on this? Because it sounds like it should be filed in the same drawer as "Getting our sovereignty back".

Not quite. I think that membership of the EU involves a transfer of power, not from the member states to Brussels, but from the people to the upper echelons of Government of the member states.


This is why I think older people tended to vote for Brexit where normally you would expect them to take the safe option.


There may well be an economic price for this but it is a case of competing values at play.

Imreoir2

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think one of the positives will be more democratic accountability.

How?

Jaggo

Corb_lund wrote: »

Out of curiosity does anyone see anything positive from brexit? All the forums I'm in seem to be negative only. Is there truly no upswing?

I think the UK leaving is a positive for the perception of the EU.

The EU is shown to be a voluntary organisation, one that a country can join if it likes the benefits but can leave if the costs are to high.

The EU has moved from being a 'superstate' to being a 'Union of willing nations'.

Leroy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Not quite. I think that membership of the EU involves a transfer of power, not from the member states to Brussels, but from the people to the upper echelons of Government of the member states.


This is why I think older people tended to vote for Brexit where normally you would expect them to take the safe option.


There may well be an economic price for this but it is a case of competing values at play.

I disagree. The voter turnout in EU elections in the UK is terrible. People were simply not paying attention. Farage got voted in as MEP a number of times, yet failed on every occasion to win a seat in Westminster. It would appear that the voters in the UK treated the EU as some sort of government kicking tool and payed very little actual notice to what was going on (hence why Farage missed most fisheries meetings).

Edit - this is true for many countries including Ireland. We should be paying more attention to the calibre of politician that we send over to the EU rather than it being either a stepping stone of a retirement home. MEP should be held to the same accountability as TDs. What have you achieved, what groups are you part of, what policies do you stand for/against.

People tended to vote for Brexit because they didn't understand what it actually entailed. They were under the impression that the EU was holding the UK back, rather than EU UK being in a mutually beneficial relationship.

How can you think that democratic accountability is going to improve when we have just witnessed the lies and deceit undertaken by the likes of Johnson and Gove during the campaign and yet Johnson is now odds on to be the next leader of the Tories.

People like JRM have taken completely different positions now than before (he argued that Brexit should be two ref's).

Sam Russell

Dymo wrote: »

The pound sterling has never suffered the existential crisis the euro has. Sterling has been depreciated and devalued beyond recognition, but the UK has never properly defaulted on its debt.

Sterling has lost 70% of its value wrt to US$ in the last 70 years. Devalued in 1948 from £1 equal to $4, to £1 = $1.28, and again devalued in 1967 from US$1.28 to US$1.24. In 1971, the pound sterling was floated, which effectively ended the 'sterling area'. In 1976, there was another sterling crisis, requiring IMF intervention. In March 1985, sterling was almost parity with the US$. In 1989, it went to US$1.7.

Sterling has bounced from one crisis to another over the last 70 years, and has lost 25% of its value over the last three years.

Crisis, what crisis? What is required to 'properly' default on your debts?

There be unicorns in them there hills.

lawred2

Jaggo wrote: »

I think the UK leaving is a positive for the perception of the EU.

The EU is shown to be a voluntary organisation, one that a country can join if it likes the benefits but can leave if the costs are to high.

The EU has moved from being a 'superstate' to being a 'Union of willing nations'.

They can leave if their calculation of the costs is deemed too high

Don't presume that any calculations are correct.. the UKs have been proven to be wildly incorrect.