Brexit discussion thread IV

prawnsambo

J Mysterio wrote: »

People have limited imaginations and many have no understanding of the interconnected nature of the UK/EU. The reality is worse than many can/ could comprehend.

To not produce literature for the referendum or create a referendum commission was unforgivable.

It's not as though they didn't have an example to follow from a country that's had multiple referenda on EU treaties in the same language and less than an hour away.

An independent referendum commission would have been a no-brainer. A super-majority also.

judeboy101

Foxy on the media today promising 35% of gdp will be export led.

prawnsambo

judeboy101 wrote: »

Foxy on the media today promising 35% of gdp will be export led.

Are you sure that wasn't goods only? Afaik, the highest export performer in the UK is services.

judeboy101

prawnsambo wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

Foxy on the media today promising 35% of gdp will be export led.

Are you sure that wasn't goods only? Afaik, the highest export performer in the UK is services.

As usual he is light on detail

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45255132

Christy42

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Christy42 wrote: »

Should there be a new Lisbon treaty? The withdrawal clause was never expected to be used and so not completely thought through.

Maybe the withdrawal agreement could be written in to it. So if a member leaves they agree to follow all EU rules and make payments until a 3rd party agreement is drawn up or some such.

That would be leaving without leaving and would give the EU far to much leverage in a negotiation. Basically agree to whatever we say or your stuck here forever

Sorry I should have added or the country leaving would decide to crash out (maybe have 1 year notice needed on that one).

So this way you stay in if you don't do anything in the negotiations. However if you want a clean break then feel free to go for it. Or something in the middle can be agreed. Essentially the same options have now but the default if the UK can't decide on anything and is in chaos changes to something safer. Hard exit is still an option but needs to be a decision.

trellheim

The UK asked (IIRC) for A50 to be added , even back then. You'd need a lot to get a new TFEU through that removed it.


In other news Raab is meeting Barnier today https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1031780444713492480 any ska from anyone ?


eek dont read the comments under that tweet

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

People have limited imaginations and many have no understanding of the interconnected nature of the UK/EU. The reality is worse than many can/ could comprehend.

To not produce literature for the referendum or create a referendum commission was unforgivable.

I think even Brexit ministers grossly underestimated this angle. They thought it was like switching energy providers or changing from one TV cable company over to another.

And even that analogy doesn't hold up. The UK don't have a rival EU or Single Market in Europe they can join. They are ripping up all their treaties, trade agreements and current arrangements to replace them with nothing basically if it ends up with No Deal.

swampgas

trellheim wrote: »

The UK asked (IIRC) for A50 to be added , even back then. You'd need a lot to get a new TFEU through that removed it.


In other news Raab is meeting Barnier today https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1031780444713492480 any ska from anyone ?


eek dont read the comments under that tweet

Those comments are a window into the soul of Brexiters. Decades of anti-EU propoganda by the press and political scapegoating (by the Tories in particular) have brought us here.

Many Brexiters seem to be getting a genuine emotional buzz from the idea of crashing out, while sticking two fingers up to the EU. I can see where they are coming from - if you are living in a deluded alternate universe where the EU is an evil empire, holding back the plucky Brits, then why wouldn't you want out?

IMO the rot is too deep to fix easily. The UK may need to leave, and spend a decade or two figuring itself out. It doesn't know what kind of country it wants to be yet. Maybe then, and only then, can the idea of the UK participating in the EU be reconsidered.
.

Sam Russell

swampgas wrote: »

IMO the rot is too deep to fix easily. The UK may need to leave, and spend a decade or two figuring itself out. It doesn't know what kind of country it wants to be yet. Maybe then, and only then, can the idea of the UK participating in the EU be reconsidered.

If you consider what happened to Ireland following the Treaty of 1922, you might get some idea of how long it will take the UK (or what is left of it) to come round to rejoining the EU.

We had a civil war (with real shooting and deaths) followed by the transfer of power to the losers of the CW. This was followed by an economic war which caused much economic misery in Ireland. Then the Emergency when we were neutral on the side of the Allies. This was followed by leaving the Commonwealth and declaring a Republic in 1948.

The years up to the 1960s were bleak and miserable, until Lemass era when we opened up to the world - joined the UN and got a FTA with Britain which favoured the larger nation.

Then we joined the EU. That took over 50 years and we have not looked back (except for a slight problem in 2008). Now we are back playing senior hurling again.

I think the UK have at least a decade before there could be even a debate about rejoining the EU. They might look to join the USA first.

trellheim

Sadly I cant see anything different

Leroy42

It is amazing the lack of responsibility that people are willing to take. Everything is everyone elses fault. It mirrors Trump in many respects.

Blame the Lords, NI, Remoaners, the EU, the Irish, The Germans, the French, Barnier, Cameron, TM, Raab is now a turncoat.

Farage is on a mission to lay the blame solely at TM's feet, if only they would let him at the EU he would sort it out (despite him being an MEP for years and never doing anything to help the UK).

And not one interviewer ever asks why is pushed so hard for Brexit without first ensuring that everything was in place to make it a success.

IDS was out, again, today, spouting some rubbish about the WTO. Saying that as a current member of the EU, they would simply take the current trade agreement with Japan and change the EU to UK. Simples.

trellheim

The U.K. and the EU will now negotiate “continuously” in pursuit of a Brexit withdrawal deal, the bloc’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his opposite number Dominic Raab said.

Speaking to the press after a meeting in Brussels Tuesday, Barnier said the negotiations were now entering their “final stage” and pledged regular meetings with Raab. The U.K. Brexit secretary said their next meeting would be next week.

However, both negotiators said that reaching an agreement on a backstop proposal for avoiding a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland remained an obstacle to a successful deal. Barnier added that the two sides also needed to make progress on agreeing a framework for the future economic relationship that respected the rules of the single market. He reiterated that some of the U.K.’s proposals in their Brexit white paper “contradict” his negotiating guidelines.

Raab agreed that there were “still some significant issues to overcome” and that it was important to view the withdrawal deal and the future relationship framework, which will be outlined in a political declaration alongside the deal, “as a package.”

Barnier added that October may not be the absolute deadline for a deal, but insisted there must be agreement “well before the end of the year” pointing to the “beginning of November, but not much later than that,” to give the U.K. and the EU time to ratify the deal before the U.K.’s scheduled departure date of March 29, 2019.

On Wednesday, the talks will continue amongst lower level officials on the future relationship and also include discussion of remaining issues to be included in the withdrawal agreement.

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-and-eu-move-to-continuous-brexit-talks/

some new language there.

FOllowup

https://www.fxstreet.de.com/news/eu-barnier-die-verhandlungen-treten-in-die-endphase-ein-201808211623?utm_source=tco&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=fxstreetnewsde

The negotiations enter the "final phase".
After the talks in July, we are far more advanced in defining a common basis for security cooperation than in trading.
The EU internal market must be respected in the common partnership.

Edit : lots of links in German and other languages ..... Twitter is your friend here folks ... lots of interesting context from reporters wait till the UK media catch up... FT is showing the pound a bit perkier

View

prawnsambo wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

People have limited imaginations and many have no understanding of the interconnected nature of the UK/EU. The reality is worse than many can/ could comprehend.

To not produce literature for the referendum or create a referendum commission was unforgivable.

It's not as though they didn't have an example to follow from a country that's had multiple referenda on EU treaties in the same language and less than an hour away.

An independent referendum commission would have been a no-brainer. A super-majority also.

We should be careful about criticising them.

Remember, one of the major factors in Lisbon I, was the “Save the Irish Commissioner” campaign. The fact the Lisbon (I) didn’t alter the provisions related to the Commissioner from Ireland was completely ignored by a majority of the electorate.

Likewise, anyother call from that referendum was a demand for a “more democratic” EU with examples being that the Commission should be elected - the obvious point that a demand that there must always be a Commissioner from Ireland is totally incompatible with the “more democratic” one.

Capt'n Midnight

judeboy101 wrote: »

Foxy on the media today promising 35% of gdp will be export led.

yeah, about that ... via Slugger ...


British manufacturing output slips to ninth globally behind France

Recent data shows the UK’s manufacturing sector being starved of investment funds and losing momentum as uncertainty persists surrounding the the UK’s relationship with the EU from next year.

Half of NI firms postponed or cancelled investment plans due to Brexit


And a reminder that debt is increasing in the UK

The British growth model is well and truly broken. If any more evidence for this was needed, it came from figures last month showing that households had become net borrowers for the first time since records began in 1987. They took out almost £80bn in loans last year, the highest amount in 10 years. Only £37bn was deposited in banks. This has echoes of the pre-2008 boom period, and we all know how that ended.

The Office for National Statistics also reported that reliance on short-term unsecured loans, such as credit cards and payday loans, had exceeded £200bn: a record high. Nine out of 10 new car purchases are made using hire purchase or some kind of similar arrangement.

flutered

Leroy42 wrote: »

They can't, in all seriousness, be thinking of a no deal. WTO and zero tariffs and zero regulations.

It beyond insane

when the comments section on of the pro brexit papers are read, insanity screams out from them

flutered

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit: First 'no-deal' technical notices to be published on Thursday, says Downing Street

More than 80 documents giving advice to citizens and businesses due to come out before end of September.

These have to be a joke. Technical notices to warn of the dangers of no deal. How about you use that energy to actually make a deal? We know no deal is an absolute disaster.

• "The first of the explanatory documents are expected from the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) within days and are designed to inform citizens and businesses how to cope with a no-deal scenario."

But... okay... Maybe these studies could have been released two years ago to - y'know - inform the public what it was they were voting for?

That said, there's something very odd about these 'technical notices'. They are also being quite heavily publicised. Are they perhaps part of a UK bluffing game? To show they are serious about the seppuku?

The incompetence is beyond words really.

it seems that they are being very carefully crafted, so as not to give a too serious view of the future, they do not want to startle folks

listermint

trellheim wrote: »

The UK asked (IIRC) for A50 to be added , even back then. You'd need a lot to get a new TFEU through that removed it.


In other news Raab is meeting Barnier today https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1031780444713492480 any ska from anyone ?


eek dont read the comments under that tweet

Bots all over the place under that tweet. They are in over drive and Twitter is doing f all to address it

ancapailldorcha

Name calling posts deleted.

First Up

Interesting to see the BBC giving serious attention to port congestion and supply chain implications at Dover and Port of London.

Going well beyond no deal "scaremongering" and getting into the specifics of what having "control of our borders" actually means.

About bloody time.

prawnsambo

View wrote: »

We should be careful about criticising them.

Remember, one of the major factors in Lisbon I, was the “Save the Irish Commissioner” campaign. The fact the Lisbon (I) didn’t alter the provisions related to the Commissioner from Ireland was completely ignored by a majority of the electorate.

Likewise, anyother call from that referendum was a demand for a “more democratic” EU with examples being that the Commission should be elected - the obvious point that a demand that there must always be a Commissioner from Ireland is totally incompatible with the “more democratic” one.

That's my point really. Referenda here have thrown up a few unexpected results. Often on issues that weren't actually issues at all. The Referendum Commission helped deal with some of this, but there was a clear indication if you looked, that there's no such thing as a slam-dunk referendum and going in badly prepared can leave you looking very foolish indeed.

ancapailldorcha

The Economist has compiled an index charting the change in attitudes of various EU members towards the UK. It highlights that most countries have softened their stances:



However, freedom of movement remains the elephant in the room. Accepting it would be toxic for May's current administration but then, no deal might just be as toxic as well.

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Economist has compiled an index charting the change in attitudes of various EU members towards the UK. It highlights that most countries have softened their stances:



However, freedom of movement remains the elephant in the room. Accepting it would be toxic for May's current administration but then, no deal might just be as toxic as well.

That's really a representation of the countries that Brexit means the least to... Spain aside with their Gibraltar problem. I can see why the likes of Poland or Hungary aren't going to lose too much sleep over it.

However there is still no-one onside where freedom of movement is concerned.

Who was polled from these countries?

Peregrinus

SFAIK it's not a poll of public attitudes, but an assessment of the policy positions of the governments of the EU-27.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Economist has compiled an index charting the change in attitudes of various EU members towards the UK. It highlights that most countries have softened their stances:



However, freedom of movement remains the elephant in the room. Accepting it would be toxic for May's current administration but then, no deal might just be as toxic as well.

The light blue bars are "Yes, but big reservations" and the orange bars are "No, but could be flexible". Hardly a ringing endorsement. Especially considering each country has a veto and the two strongest countries are hardcore.

strandroad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The light blue bars are "Yes, but big reservations" and the orange bars are "No, but could be flexible". Hardly a ringing endorsement. Especially considering each country has a veto and the two strongest countries are hardcore.

Yes, to call "big reservations" stance soft is quite a stretch, and an example of visual manipulation as it should really be amber not green. The map wouldn't have any green on it though; no country is an ally.

LuckyLloyd

That's an incredibly poor piece of journalism from the Economist tbh.

Imreoir2

It seems that the UK government are going to sit on some of their more contentious no-deal preperation notices.

One of the plans they don't want to publish is on the NI eletricity market in the case of a no-deal Brexit. If you had not seen it, reports suggest that the plan is to import generators, including British army generators currently deployed in Afganistan, to plug the hole in supply.

From the Times: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/emergency-brexit-talks-as-ministers-hide-no-deal-plans-j2rtgxh30

One senior figure involved in the preparation of the plans said they were so “incendiary” that Mr Clark had been instructed to find a way to avoid their publication. “When we looked at this we found there weren’t enough readily available generators in the world for what would be needed,” they admitted.

It seems they now want to avoid the problem by agreeing a bilateral treaty with Ireland to keep the eletricity supply to NI going.

Mr Clark, who met the regulator for the EU’s so-called single energy market this month, is understood to be working on the text of an emergency bilateral agreement between London and Dublin. It would provide legal guarantees to power stations in the Republic selling electricity to Northern Ireland to keep supplies flowing through the all-Ireland grid and address other potential obstacles. Another Whitehall figure said: “Our position will be that we don’t have to prepare for the catastrophic outcome because it won’t happen. It would be in the overwhelming interests of both sides to sign the emergency agreement prepared in advance.”

Is it just me or is this reaching new levels of farce every day? I don't know if a bilateral deal to sort this out is possible in reality. If it is, then it is presumably in our interest to agree to it. Given that such an agreement was not the first option before importing more generators than exist, however, suggests that it might not be quite so simple.

It might be better for the Irish government to insist that the only way we continue to supply the NI market with eletricity is in the context of a backstop, with or without an EU withdrawl treaty. Ie, the UK would have to agree to the backstop in such a bilateral agreement even if the withdrawl treaty fails.

serfboard

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Economist has compiled an index charting the change in attitudes of various EU members towards the UK. It highlights that most countries have softened their stances:

The funniest bit that stood out from that article for me was this one:

The Economist wrote:

The impact of EU migrant labour is the most contentious issue for the government’s Brexit-backing electorate, yet it has since slowed to a relative trickle. Net migration from the EU fell to 100,000 last year, the lowest level since 2013. However, it has been offset by an increase in migrants from outside the EU - suggesting that voters who supported Brexit hoping to slow the inflow of foreigners may be disappointed once it becomes a reality.

To which the only response can be: Hahahaha!

I read somewhere that the Indian government has already said that one of its prices for a post-Brexit deal with the UK is an increase in the number of Visas.

That, coupled with the fact that all the jobs that are being done by EU foreigners who are now leaving, will have to be done by non-EU foreigners, since there aren't enough available qualified people in the UK (think NCHDs in hospitals, for one example).

So Brexiteers, remember how you voted for Brexit to remove all the white foreigners who you don't like? Well, they're now going to be replaced by coloured foreigners who you definitely don't like!

breatheme

Correct me if I'm wrong... but, under WTO/current EU law, RoI would be allowed to sell NI electricity, just applying the tariff and tax, right?

Imreoir2

breatheme wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong... but, under WTO/current EU law, RoI would be allowed to sell NI electricity, just applying the tariff and tax, right?

I admit that I am entirely ignorent of how the all island eletricity market works, or what would be needed to keep it going post no-deal Brexit.

If it were a simple problem to fix, importing more generators than exist would probably not have been option one.