Brexit discussion thread IV

J Mysterio

Brexit: UK to issue first batch of no-deal advice on Thursday

What are they at?! Like really. Just drip feeding these notices of doom and despair to a shocked and confused audience.

It's like sending out iodine tablets cos there might be a nuclear war (that you start yourself).

Imreoir2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit: UK to issue first batch of no-deal advice on Thursday

What are they at?! Like really. Just drip feeding these notices of doom and despair to a shocked and confused audience.

It's like sending out iodine tablets cos there might be a nuclear war (that you start yourself).

Except that there most likely will be a nuclear war, and a sinificant segment of your leadership is on record saying that there must be war and a nuclear war is better than a bad war.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit: UK to issue first batch of no-deal advice on Thursday

What are they at?! Like really. Just drip feeding these notices of doom and despair to a shocked and confused audience.

It'll be interesting to see if they are of the same quality as the ones ourselves and the EU issued ages ago.

Also how many pass a fact-check. As in are any facts or is it more wishful thinking.

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Except that there most likely will be a nuclear war, and a sinificant segment of your leadership is on record saying that there must be war and a nuclear war is better than a bad war.

It would be described as a Just War.


If you were to apply the criteria to Just Brexit you have to answer questions like
* Is there a Competent authority
* Probability of success
* Last Resort - was there any other way ?
* Proportionality - does the good outweigh the bad ?

ancapailldorcha

Low quality posts deleted and bans issued.

breatheme

So I've been doing some research, regarding the import/export of electricity. I found this on the WTO:

Under the HS 2716 heading, several countries have regulated the international trade of electricity energy. Controls and specific customs procedures have been designed to deal with its particularities. For example, due to practical reasons, customs clearance is done after the entry of the good in the territory and according to measurements at the power plant. Electricity energy is thus considered to qualify as a good and by that subject to the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Link: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr10_forum_e/wtr10_2july10_e.htm

So in the event that the UK does crash out without a deal, the WTO has contemplated WTO tariffs for electricity. The problem is that I can't find them.

ETA: I think my approach has been wrong. So tariffs are set by the importing country, not the exporting country. That means that the EU doesn't actually set the tariff, it would be the UK. So the UK could set the tariffs for electricity imports at 0%, no?

Enzokk

breatheme wrote: »

So I've been doing some research, regarding the import/export of electricity. I found this on the WTO:



Link: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr10_forum_e/wtr10_2july10_e.htm

So in the event that the UK does crash out without a deal, the WTO has contemplated WTO tariffs for electricity. The problem is that I can't find them.

ETA: I think my approach has been wrong. So tariffs are set by the importing country, not the exporting country. That means that the EU doesn't actually set the tariff, it would be the UK. So the UK could set the tariffs for electricity imports at 0%, no?

Yes they could set the tariff at 0%, but that would mean all other countries would have a 0% tariff on energy to the UK. That is the argument about the borders, the UK doesn't need to check goods for tariffs at the border if there is no deal for EU goods, but that would mean all other WTO nations would get the same deal as well. I am open to correction though.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes they could set the tariff at 0%, but that would mean all other countries would have a 0% tariff on energy to the UK. That is the argument about the borders, the UK doesn't need to check goods for tariffs at the border if there is no deal for EU goods, but that would mean all other WTO nations would get the same deal as well. I am open to correction though.

Seems a bit academic, since the UK is not in a position to import electricity from anywhere other than the EU - their only interconnectors are with Ireland and France. So there is no consequence for them of setting a nil tariff for electricity from the whole world.

breatheme

Yes. You are correct, I'm starting to understand this a bit more, actually (yay - learning).

Here you can play with tariffs to import/export into the EU:
importing: http://madb.europa.eu/madb/euTariffs.htm
exporting: http://madb.europa.eu/madb/datasetPreviewFormATpubli.htm?datacat_id=AT&from=publi

If you go to export, pick a random third country (say, Australia, Afghanistan, Costa Rica etc) and enter the code for electricty power (271600) you can see how much it costs to import/export electricity. Electricity is a good however, so it's subject to the standard sales tax for goods.

Tariffs are usually set at 0% (I've yet to find one that isn't 0% I guess this is because countries want their power plants to import electricity without much hassle) however, electricity is a good, and in lieu of an agreement, there will be some tax to pay for goods (this I expect the UK won't set to 0%). So the electricity the UK imports will go up whatever their goods/sales tax is.

So in conclusion (and again, any correction will be appreciated!): The UK will probably set its electricity tariff to 0% but without any other agreements, electricity they import will go up whatever they decide their tax is to import goods.

Dick Pickle

What news from Raab’s spreach? Only caught 30 secs and he was sweating like a hungry pig

Imreoir2

Dick Pickle wrote: »

What news from Raab’s spreach? Only caught 30 secs and he was sweating like a hungry pig

Prep notices confirm that UK expats in the EU may not be able to access pensions, bank accounts or insurance.

Nody

Dick Pickle wrote: »

What news from Raab’s spreach? Only caught 30 secs and he was sweating like a hungry pig

Complaints that in a "no deal Brexit" EU is not doing enough to negotiate things in advance. You could not make that one up...

In addition the Brexit papers make for some fun reading on the stuff the UK government don't want to implement that's EU driven through such as preventing companies from charging for using a CC to pay or force 1 day cross border payments etc.

Sam Russell

What will the status be for insurance policies takn out with Ins companies that are regulated by the UK regulator?

Should this be somthing that people should be careful about? Many policies will carry over the Brexit Day.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/julianoneill/status/1032586642467508224



That's right - in the doc dealing with the issue the advice is literally - "you may want to consider contacting the Irish government"...

breatheme

Which document is that one? Do you have a link?

Leroy42

The Independent are reporting the following little tid-bits https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-tax-credit-card-users-uk-dominic-raab-a8504261.html

Credit card users could be hit with a new "Brexit tax" amounting to some £166m if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal, according to papers published by the government today.

Also, although this was flagged, I have seen little in the way of how businesses are actually going to deal with the extra costs and cashflow implications

For firms importing goods into the UK from Europe, they will see their businesses treated like those bringing items in from the rest of the world - with the obligation to pay VAT and import duties, including excise duty.

Haven't seen any mention of the increase in insurance costs to cover to loss of the EH11, the cost of increased data roaming charges as yet

Red_Wake

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/agri-business/agri-food/major-boost-for-cross-border-dairy-processors-as-uk-announces-chinese-deal-37244367.html

Saw this on the Indo earlier on - could someone explain the ins and outs of it, as I thought that UK wasn't able to cut its own deals while in the EU?

Leroy42

The deal is a result of China no longer banning UK products, it falls under an existing EU/China deal.

This will be gone if the UK crash out, or will have to be renegotiated at the least.

Hurrache

Someone was good enough to go through the papers so we wouldn't.

Some interesting things in there, sperm donation and an EU approved organic certification required for foods(which would take 9 months, and can only be applied for once the UK becomes a 3rd country) which means organic farmers will immediately lose the EU market. And plenty of 'eh, we'll work out what happens if we get to that point'

Lots more bureaucracy as businesses will now have to deal with both EU and UK departments.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1032576458642915328

Nody

Red_Wake wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/agri-business/agri-food/major-boost-for-cross-border-dairy-processors-as-uk-announces-chinese-deal-37244367.html

Saw this on the Indo earlier on - could someone explain the ins and outs of it, as I thought that UK wasn't able to cut its own deals while in the EU?

Rest of EU had the right to export to China; UK was temporary banned due to poor hygiene standards in a plant checked by Chinese inspectors. Hence this is not a new deal as much as China removing a temporary ban due to UK not meeting the agreed standards that is being sold as a new deal.

Red_Wake

Nody wrote: »

Red_Wake wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/agri-business/agri-food/major-boost-for-cross-border-dairy-processors-as-uk-announces-chinese-deal-37244367.html

Saw this on the Indo earlier on - could someone explain the ins and outs of it, as I thought that UK wasn't able to cut its own deals while in the EU?

Rest of EU had the right to export to China; UK was temporary banned due to poor hygiene standards in a plant checked by Chinese inspectors. Hence this is not a new deal as much as China removing a temporary ban due to UK not meeting the agreed standards that is being sold as a new deal.

So going by your and Leroy's posts;

UK was trading dairy goods under EU/China trade deal. Due to hygiene violations, they were banned. The ban is now lifted, but as they are still trading with China under a trade deal negotiated via the EU, this would be gone in the event of a No deal Brexit, and will only continue after March if multiple players[EU27, China] agree to let it.

Crikey.

Leroy42

Nody wrote: »

Rest of EU had the right to export to China; UK was temporary banned due to poor hygiene standards in a plant checked by Chinese inspectors. Hence this is not a new deal as much as China removing a temporary ban due to UK not meeting the agreed standards that is being sold as a new deal.

But shows the disingenuous nature of what we can expect post Brexit. Every small success will dressed up as the greatest thing ever, without the actual details being discussed

judeboy101

Dick Pickle wrote: »

What news from Raab’s spreach? Only caught 30 secs and he was sweating like a hungry pig

He reminded me of Donald Sutherland in the Hunger games, constantly wiping his mouth with a white hanky.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Someone was good enough to go through the papers so we wouldn't.

Some interesting things in there, sperm donation and an EU approved organic certification required for foods(which would take 9 months, and can only be applied for once the UK becomes a 3rd country) which means organic farmers will immediately lose the EU market. And plenty of 'eh, we'll work out what happens if we get to that point'

Lots more bureaucracy as businesses will now have to deal with both EU and UK departments.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1032576458642915328

it's an absolute car crash

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

it's an absolute car crash

And that is the papers they are actually releasing. We all know that this is a positive spin on things.

Organic farmers, basically if you export to the EU you can kiss that business good bye for next year.

How do the government intent to help people cope with this, and the extra costs and extra work? They have produced nothing to indicate they have a plan beyond the stiff upper lip

Leroy42

Good piece by Ian Dunt.

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/08/23/sweaty-and-terrified-raab-fumbles-his-brexit-no-deal-announc

Even in this context, the plans themselves require some kind of deal for them to operate, which means that they do not even satisfy the definition of no-deal contingency measures. They admit to the EU now, just as we enter the climax of Brexit talks, that no matter what they do the UK will unilaterally recognise their regulatory standards, thereby giving away the negotiating position which Theresa May claimed to be so keen to protect for the last two years.

Water John

Raab's performance was so poor that the RTE commentator referred to it.

Leroy42

Do you think the UK government is reading all these reports and simply saying sure that's fine. I can only foresee this going well?

prawnsambo

Aegir wrote: »

So, once again.

What law is the CEO of eirgrid breaking if they continue to supply electricity to their subsidiary company post Brexit?

Will it be illegal for an Irish owned company to continue trading with a subsidiary in the UK.

The simple fact is that securing energy supply for vital services is an essential obligation of any government and Brexit poses a potential risk to that.

At the momemt, eirgrid is pretty much obligated under the SEM to provide power, but going forward it will not be. That doesn’t mean they can’t, just that they can flip the switch any time they choose.

It presents a small risk so it has to be addressed and I would hazard a guess and say that someone decided that shipping a couple of generators back from Bastion is enough mitigation.

That doesn’t mean the power will go off, only that supply is not secured and needs to be.

Member countries of the EU cannot negotiate bilateral trade deals with third countries. There are obvious reasons why an electricity deal can't be concluded between an Irish company and a UK company in a third country without a framework provided by an overall deal negotiated by the EU commission with that third country. Other EU countries have current electricity supply arrangements with the UK as well. Continuation of those agreements will have to be negotiated with the EU as a whole.

briany

Is this site accurate?

https://tinyurl.com/y9k7zvmx