Brexit discussion thread IV

flutered

lawred2 wrote: »

it's an absolute car crash

taking back control of their own borders, in the case of their only land border with the eu, exporters have to ring dublin or brussells, unfortunatly who and where they are have not been mentioned

Nody

briany wrote: »

Is this site accurate?

https://tinyurl.com/y9k7zvmx

Well UK can't start negotiations until they are out; so from that perspective it is correct. The others I can't comment on but would most likely be more or less right in a ballpark kind of way. Some may not be relevant for UK's business etc. but someone brought up something fun on another article. The only country in the world trading only on WTO terms today is Mauritania yet UK Brexiteers thinks that's a brilliant strategy; for some reason all other countries do not.

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

Is this site accurate?

https://tinyurl.com/y9k7zvmx

The customs union precludes EU member states from obtaining trade deals. The UK is still an EU member state.

LeinsterDub

Hurrache wrote: »

Someone was good enough to go through the papers so we wouldn't.

Some interesting things in there, sperm donation and an EU approved organic certification required for foods(which would take 9 months, and can only be applied for once the UK becomes a 3rd country) which means organic farmers will immediately lose the EU market. And plenty of 'eh, we'll work out what happens if we get to that point'

Lots more bureaucracy as businesses will now have to deal with both EU and UK departments.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1032576458642915328

3 years ago before the vote these would have been a decent base to begin the conversation. Hell even the day after the vote if they starting putting these kind of callbacks in place they might have been able to execute a semi reasonable brexit. With less than 200 days to go and they have even started implementing? That's just a work of fantasy.

LeinsterDub

Leroy42 wrote: »

Do you think the UK government is reading all these reports and simply saying sure that's fine. I can only foresee this going well?

As Dunt pointed out for continuity planning to be any use they need to assume the worst not happy go lucky blitz spirit will see us through fantasies

prawnsambo

Nody wrote: »

Well UK can't start negotiations until they are out; so from that perspective it is correct. The others I can't comment on but would most likely be more or less right in a ballpark kind of way. Some may not be relevant for UK's business etc. but someone brought up something fun on another article. The only country in the world trading only on WTO terms today is Mauritania yet UK Brexiteers thinks that's a brilliant strategy; for some reason all other countries do not.

I think even Mauritania has a trade deal with the EU now. For everything except weapons. So nobody trades on WTO rules alone.

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think even Mauritania has a trade deal with the EU now. For everything except weapons. So nobody trades on WTO rules alone.

Not a trade deal, its just that they are so poor that they get preferetial treatment on tariffs. No one trades on WTO rules alone.

Nody

This is a great debate between a remainer and a brexiteer; on the one side a person who's negotiated international trade deals and on the other side a leading journalist for Brexit to argue about if Brexit is a good thing or not using factual arguments. I'll leave it to you to guess the outcome of that debate but it's well worth the 9.37 minutes it will take you to listen to it as it sums up very well the current state of affairs as well as highlights exactly what a farce this is.

LeinsterDub

Nody wrote: »

This is a great debate between a remainer and a brexiteer; on the one side a person who's negotiated international trade deals and on the other side a leading journalist for Brexit to argue about if Brexit is a good thing or not using factual arguments. I'll leave it to you to guess the outcome of that debate but it's well worth the 9.37 minutes it will take you to listen to it as it sums up very well the current state of affairs as well as highlights exactly what a farce this is.

The last 10 seconds shows you everything that's wrong with the UK media. Equal weight given to the expert as given to the lune

Jaggo

Nody wrote: »

Well UK can't start negotiations until they are out; so from that perspective it is correct. The others I can't comment on but would most likely be more or less right in a ballpark kind of way. Some may not be relevant for UK's business etc. but someone brought up something fun on another article. The only country in the world trading only on WTO terms today is Mauritania yet UK Brexiteers thinks that's a brilliant strategy; for some reason all other countries do not.

In fairness Mauritania only abolished slavery 11 years ago. A trade deal will happen once it arrives in the 19th century.

ancapailldorcha

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The last 10 seconds shows you everything that's wrong with the UK media. Equal weight given to the expert as given to the lune

The BBC adopted this approach during the referendum campaign though, to be fair it was caught between a rock and a stupid place. You have two factions within the Tory party who resent its very existence and the last thing you want to do is to incur the ire of either faction so what we ended up with was summed up when George Osborne presented an analysis from the IFS or similar, I can't recall saying that households would be £4,300 a year worse off in the event of a Leave vote. Then someone from the leave side would get an equal time allocation to say that it was ridiculous because German car companies, trade deals and control our borders.

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The BBC adopted this approach during the referendum campaign though, to be fair it was caught between a rock and a stupid place. You have two factions within the Tory party who resent its very existence and the last thing you want to do is to incur the ire of either faction so what we ended up with was summed up when George Osborne presented an analysis from the IFS or similar, I can't recall saying that households would be £4,300 a year worse off in the event of a Leave vote. Then someone from the leave side would get an equal time allocation to say that it was ridiculous because German car companies, trade deals and control our borders.

My fave tutor at uni had a great journalism 101 lesson: “If someone says it’s raining & another person says it’s dry, it’s not your job to quote them both. Your job is to look out of the f**king window and find out which is true.”-
- quote doing the rounds on social media.

Yes you can give equal time to both sides. But you have to call either of them on fuzz or complete and utter bolloxology.

Impartiality means both sides must be held to the same levels of fact checking. It does not mean that one side gets a free ride.

Capt'n Midnight

The latest UK advice for NI businesses that have cross border trade.
Needless to say it's gone down like a zeppelin made of lead.

Brexit: Traders told 'speak to Dublin' if no deal

Northern Ireland businesses trading across the Irish border should contact the Irish government for advice in the event of a 'no-deal', said the Brexit secretary.

Dominic Raab made the comments on Thursday.

LeinsterDub

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

My fave tutor at uni had a great journalism 101 lesson: “If someone says it’s raining & another person says it’s dry, it’s not your job to quote them both. Your job is to look out of the f**king window and find out which is true.”-
- quote doing the rounds on social media.

Yes you can give equal time to both sides. But you have to call either of them on fuzz or complete and utter bolloxology.

Impartiality means both sides must be held to the same levels of fact checking. It does not mean that one side gets a free ride.

Dara O'Briain also has a great set on this issue. Just because you've someone on from the EASA on doesn't mean you need a flat earther on for balance being the jist.

bilston

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The latest UK advice for NI businesses that have cross border trade.
Needless to say it's gone down like a zeppelin made of lead.

Brexit: Traders told 'speak to Dublin' if no deal

A Sky News political correspondent (Lewis Goodall) broke the UK govt's no deal advice down today (specifically with regards to how it will impact businesses) and concluded on their website that while a no deal would be difficult for mainland UK, it would be IMPOSSIBLE for Northern Ireland. I don't think everyone gets this (or cares), a no deal is an absolute disaster for Northern Ireland for all sorts of reasons. I cannot to this day understand why the feck the DUP were so strongly in support of Brexit and I still haven't heard a single reason how it is good for Northern Ireland!!! This is a potential massive crisis that is only months away. Whatever happens one side is going to be royally pissed off.

Hurrache

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The latest UK advice for NI businesses that have cross border trade.
Needless to say it's gone down like a zeppelin made of lead.

Brexit: Traders told 'speak to Dublin' if no deal

Here's the text
https://twitter.com/gavinsblog/status/1032677386985369600?s=20

Imreoir2

bilston wrote: »

A Sky News political correspondent (Lewis Goodall) broke the UK govt's no deal advice down today (specifically with regards to how it will impact businesses) and concluded on their website that while a no deal would be difficult for mainland UK, it would be IMPOSSIBLE for Northern Ireland. I don't think everyone gets this (or cares), a no deal is an absolute disaster for Northern Ireland for all sorts of reasons. I cannot to this day understand why the feck the DUP were so strongly in support of Brexit and I still haven't heard a single reason how it is good for Northern Ireland!!! This is a potential massive crisis that is only months away. Whatever happens one side is going to be royally pissed off.

Thats easy, they were given a large sack of money. Like most brexit supporters, they never thought it would happen. They got money to play at being pro-Britain standing on its own two feet blah blah blah, it was like catnip to their base, the hardcore of which would like nothing more than border checks to give them the feeling of keeping their little statelet securely at arms lenth from the south.

In reality it will be a disaster, and my well be the nail in the coffin of partition, but no one realy thought any of that would happen back in early 2016.

PeadarCo

Nody wrote:

This is a great debate between a remainer and a brexiteer; on the one side a person who's negotiated international trade deals and on the other side a leading journalist for Brexit to argue about if Brexit is a good thing or not using factual arguments. I'll leave it to you to guess the outcome of that debate but it's well worth the 9.37 minutes it will take you to listen to it as it sums up very well the current state of affairs as well as highlights exactly what a farce this is.

A very good listen. Was nice to hear a brexiter challenged by someone who knows what they were talking about. There was a Brexiter on the hard shoulder with Ivan Yates and the message was all this stuff was scaremongering and the EU wasn't negotiating etc.

Capt'n Midnight

218 days to go. 31 weeks, a month of Sundays isn't as long as it seems given the sheer number of items that need to be agreed.

And theres still no sign of the UK compromising or even deciding what they might compromise on

http://www.impartialreporter.com/news/16589379.finbarr-bermingham-comments-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-negotiations/

Yet, the local community doesn’t appear to be given the voice it deserves in Stormont, Westminster or further afield (it’s heartening, though, to see the efforts of local activists like Dylan Quinn).

Contrast this with the steady stream of senior Irish government ministers visiting Hong Kong this year. As well as pushing Irish exports to China and Hong Kong, each has gone out of their way to warn about the potentially disastrous fallout of a hard border. Each has said they’ll do everything in their power to stop it from happening. Exasperated, one Irish minister told me (off the record) that when it comes to the Westminster’s negotiating team, “the lunatics are running the asylum”. It’s a desperate situation to watch from afar – a car crash in slow motion.

Kermit.de.frog

Big story in the Irish Times tomorrow:

NI to remain in customs union + SM - checks to be done in Britain is EU's new proposal.

Nate--IRL--

Is that new?

Also - first real volley fired from the UK. Possibly the only weapon on the UK's side. De-rating EU states Bonds from Zero-risk.

Could prompt dumping of non-AAA government debt in a no-deal situation, by UK holders, requiring Zero-risk bonds. Will hurt us, but could have serious consequences for States like Greece

https://twitter.com/OwenPSanderson/status/1032605986165583872

Nate

lawred2

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Is that new?

Also - first real volley fired from the UK. Possibly the only weapon on the UK's side. De-rating EU states Bonds from Zero-risk.

Could prompt dumping of non-AAA government debt in a no-deal situation, by UK holders, requiring Zero-risk bonds. Will hurt us, but could have serious consequences for States like Greece

https://twitter.com/OwenPSanderson/status/1032605986165583872

Nate

that not collapse UK wealth and pension funds no?

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Big story in the Irish Times tomorrow:

NI to remain in customs union + SM - checks to be done in Britain is EU's new proposal.

Proposal from the EU?

Is that really new? The EU has been onboard with that for a long time now right?

Thought the problem was the DUP?

Peregrinus

So, HMG's no deal planning papers. A few thoughts:

1. So far we've only had 25 notices, about a third of what is expected.

2. Predictably, they have received a fair amount of scrutiny and analysis in the press.

3. I'm guessing that further tranches of notices will be be not quite such hot news, and may get less analysis.

4. If HMG has guessed likewise, odds are that the later tranches will include the notices which they hope will get less analysis. Hence all the discussion of Danish sperm and BLT sandwiches which, you know, maybe are not the biggest aspects of a no-deal Brexit. Just sayin'.

5. A few themes running several or many of the notices:

6. E.g. "although not obliged to, we'll keep everything the same, and hope the EU will reciprocate."

7. Or "we'll talk urgently to the EU about how to alleviate this particular consequence of no-deal."

8. A lot of the coverage presents this as "what will happen"; doesn't really talk about what happens if the EU doesn't reciprocate, or if talks with the EU about this or that particular consequence turn out to be no more fruitful than the talks about a Withdrawal Agreement were.

9. In short, success of HMG's no-deal strategy seems to be largely dependent on what the EU chooses to do. So much for "taking back control"

10. This approach isn't a great surprise. Previous disclsosure of HMG thinking, e.g. stockpiling of food and medicine, implied they saw no-deal as disruptive in the short term only. They hope to end that short-term disruption through the goodwill/agreement of the EU.

11. Commentary on the notices hasn't really discussed how realistic this reliance on EU goodwill/agreement is, or what will happen if it is not forthcoming.

12. EU has also been silent. They have always offered comment on what HMG says about Withdrawal Agreement or Future Trade Agreement but, on this, nothing. Strictly speaking, this is correct; UK planning for what to do in no-deal scenario is, by definition, not EU business.

13. Reliance on EU goodwill/agreement may be unrealistic in context where crisis has arisen because of failure to agree Withdrawal Agreement. EU will see this as failure on UK's part to follow through on commitments on citizens rights, settlement of financial obligations, Irish border. We will be seriously displeased, not disposed tor regard UK as a trustworthy or dependable counterparty. Not a great environment for the UK, in terms of seeking early agreements that are favourable or useful to the UK.

14. Bottom line is that UK response to no-deal is "we'll make some deals". So, not really hardcore no-deal. UK needs to say what it will do in a true no-deal situation in which there are, in fact, no deals.

Nate--IRL--

lawred2 wrote: »

that not collapse UK wealth and pension funds no?

I'm sure they've considered all aspects of this measure, and there will be no unintended consequences for funds in the UK........

Nate

Seth Brundle

Saw this witty take on the UK Gov announcement earlier...

Leroy42

One other nature of the papers released yesterday, is that many of the aspects of the impacts are going to be there regardless of a deal.

Companies are going to have to face significant extra costs and burdens in terms of customs administration. Credit card charges, mobile phone roaming (not in yesterday papers) will all be negatively impacted, unless the UK stays within the EU.

Most of the papers were very short on any actual details. So they seem to have committed to keeping CAP farm payments until at least 2022 (or the end of the current government!). How much does that cost? and what impact does that have on current finances.

How are they going to pay for all the 9000 customs staff, the training, the recruitment, the extra office and other facilities they requires (computers, uniforms etc). What is the cost of the extra parking and investigative facilities. Truck X-ray machines are not cheap.

None of that was detailed out. This was clearly the most they felt they could put out there, and I agree the next release will have even more buried in them.

In the main it was really detailing out what will happen in Brexit.

Sassygirl1999

Super carriers to protect a global Britain, is Britain really regressing back to the bad old empire days?
https://www.bbc.com/news/resources/idt-sh/UK_aircraft_carriers

judeboy101

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

Super carriers to protect a global Britain, is Britain really regressing back to the bad old empire days?
https://www.bbc.com/news/resources/idt-sh/UK_aircraft_carriers

No better way to distract people than with a good old fashioned war.

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The customs union precludes EU member states from obtaining trade deals. The UK is still an EU member state.

That's OK for countries who are staying in the EU, but why not have leeway for countries undergoing negotiations to leave?