Brexit discussion thread IV

Water John

Bone (C) MP had offered to drive and collect any resigners.
You can see those Ministers on the Brexit side sitting this out for a while, till it starts to break down. They'll then surface again and say they never believed in it.

judeboy101

Anyone catch Gove on marr this morn? Shades of Chemical Ali about the interview.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarrShow?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1015881092459401217&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-theresa-may-facing-brexiteer-backlash-11429914

McGiver

“It is clear the whole country will leave the EU together. Republicans may be disappointed as they tried their best to seize this as an opportunity to weaken the union,” said the DUP deputy leader, Nigel Dodds.

Serious paranoia. Don't think anyone cares about their "Union". Well, I feel sorry for the Scots, but that's about it.

McGiver

Theresa May’s EU deal under fire from hardline Brexiters. Anti-EU MPs warn blueprint could be worse than no deal, while entrepreneurs say plans are unworkable.

Well yeah, then stay in the EU and keep the opt-outs!

EdgeCase

McGiver wrote: »

Serious paranoia. Don't think anyone cares about their "Union". Well, I feel sorry for the Scots, but that's about it.

I hope the DUP has an acceptable explanation for the many businesses and farms in Northern Ireland who will be paying in lost income for DUP dogma.
They're choosing to trash the NI economy for the sake of loyalty to the Tories. I'm not even convinced the Crown is all they pushed about leaving the EU.

All I'd say is hell hath no fury like an Ulster farmer facing the prospect of a diminishing bank balance. If they think Sinn Fein are the ones that might be a major political problem for them, they might want to look again...

Enzokk

judeboy101 wrote: »

Anyone catch Gove on marr this morn? Shades of Chemical Ali about the interview.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarrShow?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1015881092459401217&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-theresa-may-facing-brexiteer-backlash-11429914

From the clips we have Gove stating that the government will be able to assert all kinds of control that people voted for. They will not have free movement of people, they will not be under the ECJ jurisdiction and the UK will have a free trade deal with the EU. I find it interesting they know what they will have without having shown this paper or discussed it with the EU. The assumption seems to be that this will be accepted and all will be allright with their world.

ancapailldorcha

No more image dumps please.

briany

Water John wrote: »

Bone (C) MP had offered to drive and collect any resigners.

He offered 4 seats, too. If those disgruntled with the new 'agreement' had the actual neck to walk out, he might have needed more of a coach - the inappropriately-named 'Bone Bus'. They could have sang Brexit-themed bus trip songs all the way back to their constituencies.

An Ciarraioch

A very peculiar set of articles and editorial in today's Sunday Independent, all effectively saying that Ireland should be acting as Britain's advocate in the talks, for fear we'd end up with nothing. Dan O'Brien rather oddly insists that we should give up the backstop, as Britain can't deliver it, and there's no global precedent (China's arrangements with Hong Kong and Macau certainly contradict that, as does the relationship between Jersey or the Isle of Man with the UK).

Eoghan Harris then claims our strategy imperils East-West customs, even though May never floated a customs partnership until the Border issue was raised. Finally, Eilís O'Hanlon thinks "anti-English" sentiment is being inflamed, even though many English people themselves are irked by their Government, and it's hardly unique to Ireland not to cheer for neighbours at a World Cup (Holland-Belgium, Croatia-Serbia, among others).

judeboy101

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A very peculiar set of articles and editorial in today's Sunday Independent, all effectively saying that Ireland should be acting as Britain's advocate in the talks, for fear we'd end up with nothing. Dan O'Brien rather oddly insists that we should give up the backstop, as Britain can't deliver it, and there's no global precedent (China's arrangements with Hong Kong and Macau certainly contradict that, as does the relationship between Jersey or the Isle of Man with the UK).

Eoghan Harris then claims our strategy imperils East-West customs, even though May never floated a customs partnership until the Border issue was raised. Finally, Eilís O'Hanlon thinks "anti-English" sentiment is being inflamed, even though many English people themselves are irked by their Government, and it's hardly unique to Ireland not to cheer for neighbours at a World Cup (Holland-Belgium, Croatia-Serbia, among others).

You do know who owns that paper?

Sam Russell

judeboy101 wrote: »

You do know who owns that paper?

Well, 30 % of it, anyway. [Well, 29.7%]

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/dasvee/status/1015927413618958336

Some might find this handy. Good explanation of all the parties and issues which are under consideration.

Roanmore

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1015930389934886913

Wonder could we see a challenge to May next week?
48 letters needed.

judeboy101

Roanmore wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1015930389934886913

Wonder could we see a challenge to May next week?
48 letters needed.

She would win it hands down. There aren't any credible challengers after the weekend.159 mps needed for new pm. It will however create a complete sh1t storm leading up to oct summit.

EdgeCase

judeboy101 wrote: »

She would win it hands down. There aren't any credible challengers after the weekend.159 mps needed for new pm. It will however create a complete sh1t storm leading up to oct summit.

I'm not taking anything for granted over there anymore. You could end up with some bizarre set of circumstances that lead to some totally unintuitive outcome, against all odds, like Boris Johnson suddenly ending up as PM, inexplicably.

I would hope it might trigger a general election rather than a change of PM. Removing the DUP from the mix would be a massive improvement.

An Ciarraioch

The Austrian Chancellor (who holds the EU Presidency) is meeting the Taoiseach in Dublin today, and visiting the Border tomorrow:

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/0708/977140-kurz-visit-dublin/

ArmaniJeanss

judeboy101 wrote: »

She would win it hands down. There aren't any credible challengers after the weekend.159 mps needed for new pm. It will however create a complete sh1t storm leading up to oct summit.

Kinda true, though nowadays the top two after the MPs ballots go to a vote of the public membership. I wouldn't get too obsessed over the 159 figure, even if she gets most votes of 4 or 5 candidates but its only 90-110 votes then she's toast.

Funny things can occur in Tory leadership contests.
Incumbent Thatcher resigned after 'only' getting 55% of the first ballot vote, the new favourite Heseltine then got gubbed by John Major who only joined in ballot 2.
Michael Portillo lost a different contest when he was odds on fav, with the MPs preferring William Hague.

So anything can happen - her problems could include the Remain side running a serious candidate which would split the vote 3 ways, that she's now clearly not the new Maggie which she managed to convince people 2 years ago, and that her opponents will now have a better handle on her vulnerabilities.

fash

So what would you do if you were Barnier? ( Besides "welcoming progress")

In the medium term, I think offering a CETA type deal based on the red lines - and because I don't think anything with greater obligations can stick.
Let the UK's expectations sink to match their willingness to subject themselves to obligations.

briany

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm not taking anything for granted over there anymore. You could end up with some bizarre set of circumstances that lead to some totally unintuitive outcome, against all odds, like Boris Johnson suddenly ending up as PM, inexplicably.

I would hope it might trigger a general election rather than a change of PM. Removing the DUP from the mix would be a massive improvement.

If Boris didn't want the job 2 years ago, I fail to see why he'd want it now. In fact, I'd think he'd want it even less now because at least 2 years ago we hadn't yet seen the full degree of infighting and ineptitude. Back then, it was famously quoted to be '...the easiest deal in human history.'

I think if they called another GE, the Cons would would get the greatest numbers again, but largely due to the fact that Labour appears to have sold its younger voters up the river, and who now must be feeling totally disenfranchised. But then I could forsee UKIP gaining seats in pro-Brexit areas totally disillusioned by the Cons' current approach and then you have just as bad a party for the Cons to form a government with. Last thing May wants is taking on more hardliners, I should think.

A sea border solves a fair amount from May's end. Yes, it would cause the DUP to withdraw from government, but if the Cons could continue as a minority, perhaps the extra wiggle room in negotiations without having to worry about the Irish border would be enough to secure cross-party support for her proposals.

Imreoir2

fash wrote: »

So what would you do if you were Barnier? ( Besides "welcoming progress")

In the medium term, I think offering a CETA type deal based on the red lines - and because I don't think anything with greater obligations can stick.
Let the UK's expectations sink to match their willingness to subject themselves to obligations.

Not sure Barnier should get caught up making offers.

The White Paper needs to be analysed and and the acceptable and unacceptable parts need to be catagoriesd. I would prepare a document outlining in detail why the unacceptable parts of the UK proposal cannot be accepted by the EU, and I would add the acceptable parts of their White Paper to the joint draft treaty text.

I would then ask the UK side to consider the document outlining why their proposals are unacceptable and ask them to reconsider their proposal in light of it.

The pressure is on the UK, and it's up to them to come up with solutions. The EU should not get caught up in trying to fix the UK's problems for it. It would risk the EU being seen as trying to force a particular path on the UK.

It's for the UK to decide what they want, and for the EU to decide what they get.

An Ciarraioch

60% of Tory members regard Chequers as "a bad deal for Britain", with the same proportion also refusing to endorse it:

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/our-snap-survey-two-in-three-party-members-believe-mays-new-brexit-plan-represents-a-bad-deal-for-britain.html

At this stage, there has been so many unicorns promised to so many factions that there wouldn't be a majority for any outcome, possible or not really.

Enzokk

briany wrote: »

If Boris didn't want the job 2 years ago, I fail to see why he'd want it now. In fact, I'd think he'd want it even less now because at least 2 years ago we hadn't yet seen the full degree of infighting and ineptitude. Back then, it was famously quoted to be '...the easiest deal in human history.'

I think if they called another GE, the Cons would would get the greatest numbers again, but largely due to the fact that Labour appears to have sold its younger voters up the river, and who now must be feeling totally disenfranchised. But then I could forsee UKIP gaining seats in pro-Brexit areas totally disillusioned by the Cons' current approach and then you have just as bad a party for the Cons to form a government with. Last thing May wants is taking on more hardliners, I should think.

A sea border solves a fair amount from May's end. Yes, it would cause the DUP to withdraw from government, but if the Cons could continue as a minority, perhaps the extra wiggle room in negotiations without having to worry about the Irish border would be enough to secure cross-party support for her proposals.

Well if Boris wants the job he better take it. Unlike you I think Labour will easily be in power at the next election. It will not be because of Brexit though, it will be about the economy which the Tories have run terribly the last 8 years and the NHS which they have just about let collapse. Labour will make it about local issues and then if they get a majority they will most likely agree to a sea border and a FTA with the EU.

fash

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Not sure Barnier should get caught up making offers.

The White Paper needs to be analysed and and the acceptable and unacceptable parts need to be catagoriesd. I would prepare a document outlining in detail why the unacceptable parts of the UK proposal cannot be accepted by the EU, and I would add the acceptable parts of their White Paper to the joint draft treaty text.

I would then ask the UK side to consider the document outlining why their proposals are unacceptable and ask them to reconsider their proposal in light of it.

The pressure is on the UK, and it's up to them to come up with solutions. The EU should not get caught up in trying to fix the UK's problems for it. It would risk the EU being seen as trying to force a particular path on the UK.

It's for the UK to decide what they want, and for the EU to decide what they get.

The "this is acceptable, this is not" is meaningless though. Everything is acceptable if the counteroffer is low enough (e.g. giving the UK a narrow FTA).

"Based on these red lines, you get "X", if you would like more than X, you need to remove these red lines."

micosoft

Given where we are now we do need to start planning for UK having a vassal state status with the EU. For example EFTA has a secretariat based in Geneva. Perhaps Ireland should submit a request (given we didn't get the European Medicines Agency or European Banking Authority when they left London) whatever organisation gets setup to administer the UK should be based out of Dublin. We could for example, repurpose Dublin Castle for this Agency. It's a quick flight from London to Dublin when the UK Govt. needs to plead it's case and we can speak English here.

Water John

The Sunday Indo should stay well out of it. They don't represent or voice the opinion of the Irish people.

LeinsterDub

Water John wrote: »

The Sunday Indo should stay well out of it. They don't represent or voice the opinion of the Irish people.

Have they ever claimed too? Aren't they entitled to their opinion?

Water John

In a situation where, many on the UK side are looking for any chink to work on, the politicians on all sides in the ROI have been remarkably coherent and singular in their view. This is a subject of key national importance. Leave the negotiations to the professionals.

PeadarCo

Water John wrote:

In a situation where, many on the UK side are looking for any chink to work on, the politicians on all sides in the ROI have been remarkably coherent and singular in their view. This is a subject of key national importance. Leave the negotiations to the professionals.

I disagree with the indo but they don't deserve any criticism for their views. One of the reasons the UK is in this mess is the lack of alternative view points at times. Or at least how those view points are presented in the media I.e "enemies of the people". The indo are perfectly entitled to publish their views. I strongly disagree with them but given how important Brexit is to Ireland it is important that any debate is had in the open and that alternative view points are not vilified as happened to remainer/soft brexiters in the UK.

listermint

PeadarCo wrote: »

I disagree with the indo but they don't deserve any criticism for their views. One of the reasons the UK is in this mess is the lack of alternative view points at times. Or at least how those view points are presented in the media I.e "enemies of the people". The indo are perfectly entitled to publish their views. I strongly disagree with them but given how important Brexit is to Ireland it is important that any debate is had in the open and that alternative view points are not vilified as happened to remainer/soft brexiters in the UK.

It's not he indos views it's the pieces of individual journalists. Not worth wiping ones rear with. They are entitled to make a shilling , as much as the next person . But you should see these pieces for what they are. Designed to antagonise.

Waffle more waffle and a bit more waffle.

jimmycrackcorm

The DUP don't care because NI is a UK largely public subvention economy. Nothing will change for their supported because they're mostly employed by the state.

I'm unsure why this whole process is so drawn out. Because of WTO rules, there is little wiggle room in a custom arrangement. The EU should simply offer one of the preexisting arrangements e. G. Norway, Turkey or Canada or just full on Brexit.

As for NI, that's still a UK problem regardless of the EU. They committed in the GFA to stating that they have no selfish interest in NI.

An Ciarraioch

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The DUP don't care because NI is a UK largely public subvention economy. Nothing will change for their supported because they're mostly employed by the state.

I'm unsure why this while prices is so drawn out. Because of WTO rules, there is little wiggle room in a custom arrangement. The EU should simply offer one of the preexisting arrangements e. G. Norway, Turkey or Canada or just full on Brexit.

As for NI, that's still a UK problem regardless of the EU. They committed in the GFA to stating that they have no selfish interest in NI.

Not to mention that DUP MPs reportedly have significant internal affairs to deal with ...

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Not to mention that DUP MPs reportedly have significant internal affairs to deal with ...

Hearing rumours myself. Is there a link to the story?

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Hearing rumours myself. Is there a link to the story?

All injunctioned reportedly, so nothing more concrete than Twitter to date.

Capt'n Midnight

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The EU should simply offer one of the preexisting arrangements e. G. Norway, Turkey or Canada or just full on Brexit.

You mean like this ?

It's the UK's very own Red Lines that rule out most of those deals.




The EU's insistance on the ECJ and four freedoms as a minimum for a good deal has always been front and centre.





The UK view is still
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44756843

"We are being generous to the EU, we are showing flexibility," he said. "If the EU is not generous and flexible, we may have to contemplate walking away without a deal.

it's the same old
"we'd like to cancel our club membership, but still use the facilities.
But only on the condition that we can get half the seats on a parallel members commitee that sets special by-laws just for us instead of the normal rules that the normal commitee imposes on all the other members."




Note:
Ukraine may be asking for EU membership in 2020 just in case the UK think they will be the centre of attention.

Trasna1

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

All injunctioned reportedly, so nothing more concrete than Twitter to date.

Journalist or two on Twitter claiming DUP will pull the plug tomorrow as a result of above injunctioned scandal.

If true, tomorrow will be a tumultuous day.

RobertKK

David Davis has resigned as the chaos continues.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1016087646727294977

Big news if true.

judeboy101

The words rats and sinking ship come to mind

Here we go! Wonder if sense might incidentally break out.

McMurphy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1016087646727294977

Big news if true.

It's true.

Just got a BBC news alert.

Itssoeasy

So who's next ? David Davis is the leader of the revolt.

Trasna1

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

It's true.

Just got a BBC news alert.

The race is on to contain the fire in government now. So where do we go from here, Leadership contest? Election?

Corbyn as PM and JRM as leader of the opposition?

FrancieBrady

BBC news reporting it.

LeinsterDub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

BBC news reporting it.

Seen on twitter he's taken an other minister with him. Rumour at the moment of course

judeboy101

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Seen on twitter he's taken an other minister with him. Rumour at the moment of course

Foxy?

Spanish Eyes

This is no surprise to me. I don't think he had any influence in the way things were going. He fudged his job, and probably resigned before he was pushed.

Interesting tweet about another minister going also, but we will see tomorrow.

The Telegraph will be in meltdown.

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Seen on twitter he's taken an other minister with him. Rumour at the moment of course

At 'least' one other according to Laura K (BBC)

May and the DUP are toast.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

Foxy?

No futher details I'm afraid.

LeinsterDub

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No futher details I'm afraid.

I see rumours of Steve Baker.