Brexit discussion thread IV

Jaggo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Brexit: China looking at 'top-notch' trade deal with UK after EU withdrawal

LOL , look at every other trade deal China has done with smaller countries. Show me one where China treated the other as an equal. Show me one technology transfer where China didn't break the rules and take the technology. There's a reason even the Russians who need hard currency and used to sell to anyone no don't sell high tech to China. There's a reason why lots of countries from Oz to India aren't using Chinese kit for their infrastructure.

I don't think the UK will ever get a China fta. Certainly at the moment, it is a choice between China and the US. The US will be pressuring the UK to keep China isolated and would probably block a US-UK deal if it tried go it alone.

Rhineshark

Jaggo wrote: »

I don't think the UK will ever get a China fta. Certainly at the moment, it is a choice between China and the US. The US will be pressuring the UK to keep China isolated and would probably block a US-UK deal if it tried go it alone.

They'd find it hard to not make some sort of deal with China, who are already up to the neck in building British energy infrastructure. The UK could find itself on a very sticky wicket there, as Trump certainly won't be sympathetic if he gets a bee in his bonnet.

Although I am wondering if Trump is going to have a go at breaking the WTO. Given the tariffs situation, I could see the Brexiters being all in favour too and the WTO is fairly fragile. It's an agreement in the interests of not having a free for all with several big powers devouring the smaller countries. If that happens, the UK is really in the lurch.

VinLieger

Rhineshark wrote: »

They'd find it hard to not make some sort of deal with China, who are already up to the neck in building British energy infrastructure. The UK could find itself on a very sticky wicket there, as Trump certainly won't be sympathetic if he gets a bee in his bonnet.

Although I am wondering if Trump is going to have a go at breaking the WTO. Given the tariffs situation, I could see the Brexiters being all in favour too and the WTO is fairly fragile. It's an agreement in the interests of not having a free for all with several big powers devouring the smaller countries. If that happens, the UK is really in the lurch.

Trump is already well into trying to break the WTO, the US is blocking every single nomination for WTO judges which is creating a massive backlogs for cases. The UK thinks they can just go to the WTO to get a ruling on trade in the event of no deal? they need to get to the back of an already very long line

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

And it again shows that rather than papers showing the true impact of a no deal, the papers really only dealt in detail with a deal scenario.

Delays at customs, credit card charges, pics on cigarette boxes. These are all simply a result of the red lines.

In many parts they simply claim that the EU will help sort it out.

They love bringing up Switzerland, but they take loads of EU rules, the very thing the UK are adamant that was the entire point of Brexit.

a deal the EU is adamant will not be repeated

Peregrinus

VinLieger wrote: »

Trump is already well into trying to break the WTO, the US is blocking every single nomination for WTO judges which is creating a massive backlogs for cases. The UK thinks they can just go to the WTO to get a ruling on trade in the event of no deal? . . .

No, no, no. Other way around. If there were to be rulings from the WTO on what the UK could and couldn't do in a no-deal situation, those rulings would not be helpful to the UK. The UK's no-deal strategy doesn't so much rely on the WTO, as rely on the WTO's enforcement processes being slow and inefficient.

(Which they are. The WTO isn't a policeman; it's a forum which seeks to facilitate and encourage agreement.)

Dick Pickle

I sense Raab is having a change of heart on his Brexit views. Was interesting seeing him sweating and stuttering his way though that speech.

briany

Dick Pickle wrote: »

I sense Raab is having a change of heart on his Brexit views. Was interesting seeing him sweating and stuttering his way though that speech.

He's the face, the fall guy, for a crumbling enterprise. Certainly not as wilful as DD was. He's the Comical Ali figure of Brexit, and maybe before long Jeremy Corbyn will become Karl Donitz.

What an almighty sh*tshow this whole thing has been. There may not even be a definitive end to it, but a blur of rhetoric and extensions to the deadline by any other name until the whole British public forgets about it, and British society goes back to harbouring resentment caused by forces more complex than could be summed up in a simple slogan.

ArmaniJeanss

Been a bit boring without the intrigues of Westminster as a backdrop.

Some dates -
Parliament back on the 4th September, just a short session as recessing again on the 13th for a month.
However that recess of a month is conference season so could be plenty of entertainment to be had.
Libs - 15/09 <-> 18/09 - increasingly irrelevant it seems, expect Cable to announce a resignation date.
Labour - 24/09 <-> 27/09 - major shift in Ref2 policy I reckon.
Conservatives - 30/09 <-> 03/10. May to limp on as ERG refuse to load the gun.


Firstly there's another Cabinet crisis meeting (the 143rd ???) this time to focus on No Deal, scheduled for 13/09.
(behind paywall) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/no-10-calls-brexit-crisis-summit-on-no-deal-87fgmh2st

kunst nugget

An Claidheamh wrote: »

(Incidentally, her visit cost approx 36 million, compared to 5 million for the Pope)

This is totally false.

The combined costs of the Queen and Obama's visits was 36 million - they were estimated to cost 20 million but ended up costing 16 million more.

The pope's visit is estimated to run to 32 million but will probably end up being more than that.

Mezcita

briany wrote: »

He's the face, the fall guy, for a crumbling enterprise. Certainly not as wilful as DD was. He's the Comical Ali figure of Brexit, and maybe before long Jeremy Corbyn will become Karl Donitz.

What an almighty sh*tshow this whole thing has been. There may not even be a definitive end to it, but a blur of rhetoric and extensions to the deadline by any other name until the whole British public forgets about it, and British society goes back to harbouring resentment caused by forces more complex than could be summed up in a simple slogan.

All the more reason to let them walk IMO. Let them see first hand what life is like on the outside for a few years. Once they come back the UK might actually be a more willing partner within the EU.

Sam Russell

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Firstly there's another Cabinet crisis meeting (the 143rd ???) this time to focus on No Deal, scheduled for 13/09.
(behind paywall) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/no-10-calls-brexit-crisis-summit-on-no-deal-87fgmh2st

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/9adw89/no_10_calls_brexit_crisis_summit_on_no_deal/e4upr1w/

briany

Mezcita wrote: »

All the more reason to let them walk IMO. Let them see first hand what life is like on the outside for a few years. Once they come back the UK might actually be a more willing partner within the EU.

I think all the hardcore Brexit people are going to double down on their beliefs in the event of a hard Brexit because all the austerity and hardship the UK might endure will be blamed squarely on the EU since (as they'd see it) the EU was so spiteful in negotiations. The resentment will be mighty, and it's quite something the hell people will go through not to sacrifice their pride, and it's quite something more to know there's politicians who'll gladly ride that wave to power rather than do what's best for the long-term.

Igotadose

briany wrote: »

I think all the hardcore Brexit people are going to double down on their beliefs in the event of a hard Brexit because all the austerity and hardship the UK might endure will be blamed squarely on the EU since (as they'd see it) the EU was so spiteful in negotiations. The resentment will be mighty, and it's quite something the hell people will go through not to sacrifice their pride, and it's quite something more to know there's politicians who'll gladly ride that wave to power rather than do what's best for the long-term.

Might be a nice place to visit for cheap goods and holidays. Unfortunately it's likely to cause a local recession that'll impact Ireland, too. Still, going to England and going on about how great it is now that everything's so cheap due to the exchange rate might be fun...

LeinsterDub

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx4AF-3Rd44

Regular listeners to LBC's James O'Brien will recognise two of these. One in Ciarán the van driver the other is the international trade expert he had on a while ago. Well worth listening as well they outline how day to day processes will simply stop working

Evd-Burner

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Regular listeners to LBC's James O'Brien will recognise two of these. One in Ciarán the van driver the other is the international trade expert he had on a while ago. Well worth listening as well they outline how day to day processes will simply stop working

Your link isn't working.

Hermy

This it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx4AF-3Rd44

bilston

BBC Radio 5 Live presenter really putting it to Frank Field (Brexiteer) at the moment on a debate on a possible 2nd referendum. The presenter making the point that the Leave campaign fed lies and mistruths throughout the campaign like the red bus. Field is claiming the red bus with the £350m for the NHS didn't sway voters, 5 Live presenter basically calling him out saying that is ridiculous to think it didn't sway voters.

Field just answered saying he didn't agree with the red bus approach at the time...I don't think that's the f*****g point Frank!!!! Of course it swayed voters and it was a bate faced lie.

Great to hear...

Anthracite

bilston wrote: »

BBC Radio 5 Live presenter really putting it to Frank Field (Brexiteer) at the moment on a debate on a possible 2nd referendum. The presenter making the point that the Leave campaign fed lies and mistruths throughout the campaign like the red bus. Field is claiming the red bus with the £350m for the NHS didn't sway voters, 5 Live presenter basically calling him out saying that is ridiculous to think it didn't sway voters.

Field just answered saying he didn't agree with the red bus approach at the time...I don't think that's the f*****g point Frank!!!! Of course it swayed voters and it was a bate faced lie.

Great to hear...

Just listening back - apparently, according to Field, Ireland was 'forced' to have 3 referenda on the Maastricht Treaty. Facts, eh?

joeysoap

Field and Hoey would be in the ERG if they could be.

An Claidheamh

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2018/08/27/brexit-impact-wales-mclaughlin-nr-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/intl-brexit/


This is just bizarre

Rhineshark

Anthracite wrote: »

Just listening back - apparently, according to Field, Ireland was 'forced' to have 3 referenda on the Maastricht Treaty. Facts, eh?

Anyone call him on it? People get away with talking far too much rubbish.

Akrasia

Rhineshark wrote: »

Anyone call him on it? People get away with talking far too much rubbish.

He was wrong but only 3 countries put it to a vote and Denmark had 2 referendums on Maastricht, so he probably just got his talking point arseways in a live interview.

Leroy42

Its fine everyone, TM has stated that a no deal Brexit would "not be the end of the world."

So thats grand. Seems somewhat different from the leave message during the referendum from what I recall.

"Vote Brexit, it won't be as bad as the rapture" doesn't fit on the side of a bus!

Its shocking that the PM is continuing to pursue a policy that she admits will be negative to the country.

Wanderer78

Leroy42 wrote:

Its shocking that the PM is continuing to pursue a policy that she admits will be negative to the country.

Farage should be the man there, he d do a proper job on it!

Leroy42

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote:

Its shocking that the PM is continuing to pursue a policy that she admits will be negative to the country.

Farage should be the man there, he d do a proper job on it!

Not according to democracy, he didn't win a seat on the last GE never mind lead a majority.

Aren't those calling for Farage to get involved really asking that the unelected start making decisions? Isn't that totally against democracy?

Wanderer78

Leroy42 wrote:

Not according to democracy, he didn't win a seat on the last GE never mind lead a majority.

"Democracy', interesting term, could be interesting if it ever appears

Patser

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Farage should be the man there, he d do a proper job on it!

Yep, Farage and Johnson should be the ones in charge.


It'd be a clusterf of epic proportions but I'd love to see them actually have to take responsibility for the negotiations and fall out, the realities of what's coming; than their current lurking in the background making grossly negligent claims about the future without ever really being held to account.

breatheme

Johnson should've been heading the Brexit ship since the beginning, but again, Tory in-fighting prevented that. Well, the UK is at cliff-edge because of Tory in-fighting, so that's beside the point.

Peregrinus

breatheme wrote: »

Johnson should've been heading the Brexit ship since the beginning, but again, Tory in-fighting prevented that. Well, the UK is at cliff-edge because of Tory in-fighting, so that's beside the point.

The Brexit ship, to continue the metaphor, was only designed, built and launched because of Tory in-fighting. If the Tories weren't functioning like a bunch of peole who've never met before brawling in a pub carpark, Brexit would still be an idea cherished only by a lunatic fringe.

Patser

Johnson had his chance when Cameron stood down, but realised that what he had promised and the reality of what was coming were incompatible. You could see he was shook on the day of the brexit result, being booed coming out of his house in London, an area that had voted to remain. Johnson hates being unpopular, he's all about image of this eccentric quirky toff, but to be actually booed and responsible shook him.

His dilemma was how to not take responsibility without being seen as a coward. And his solution was sit com/soap opera ish.

Gove (who was also shook that brexit was happening after championing it) theatrically stabbed Johnson in the back, just as Boris was about to run for PM. Poor, poor betrayed Boris now couldn't run, not without his loyal supporter and as such wouldn't even stand. Oh poor, poor Boris.

Meanwhile Gove, now pantomime villain number 1, put his name forward instead. So he at least could say he was principled and brave, even though as new Public Enemy number 1 for his betrayal of poor Boris, meant he'd a snowballs chance in Hell of winning.

And so the 2 leading Tories, who'd actually campaigned for Brexit managed to escape any responsibility for it. Poor, poor Boris the victim of betrayal by his closest ally, and Gove who put principle above friendship but was unlucky not to become PM but at least he tried. No, no, not their fault they couldn't be there to negotiate it.


At least until May brought Boris back in as Foreign minister to try force him take some responsibility, and instead now has him still slip in and out focus, stirring shiť but then slipping back from any decision or responsibility.