Brexit discussion thread IV

Leroy42

News reports coming out that the EU is willing to give the UK a special third party country deal, sparking an uplift in the value of the GBP.

That is quite a significant statement from Barnier and a marked shift in his previous rethoric. He stated he respects the UK red lines.

This has to be seen a big climb down by the EU, maybe TM's summer talks with Macron et al really did have an effect and Barnier has been ordered to drop the challenges.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

News reports coming out that the EU is willing to give the UK a special third party country deal, sparking an uplift in the value of the GBP.

That is quite a significant statement from Barnier and a marked shift in his previous rethoric. He stated he respects the UK red lines.

This has to be seen a big climb down by the EU, maybe TM's summer talks with Macron et al really did have an effect and Barnier has been ordered to drop the challenges.

Link?

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

This has to be seen a big climb down by the EU, maybe TM's summer talks with Macron et al really did have an effect and Barnier has been ordered to drop the challenges.

If the UK have caved and accepted a Free Trade deal with an NI exception, I would expect Barnier to phrase it so that May can sell it as a win.

If the Telegraph and Express can print "May Spanks Barnier" there is a chance it will pass in Westminster.

Barnier could not care less what the UK says as long as a deal is made.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Link?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-barnier-raab-lidington-no-deal-eu-berlin-pound-sterling-spike-jump-a8513226.html

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1010176/brexit-news-pound-sterling-value-euro-michel-barnier-dominic-raab-market-news-stock-latest

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6110651/Barnier-FINALLY-says-EU-offer-Britain-unique-deal-Brexit.html

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK have caved and accepted a Free Trade deal with an NI exception, I would expect Barnier to phrase it so that May can sell it as a win.

If the Telegraph and Express can print "May Spanks Barnier" there is a chance it will pass in Westminster.

Barnier could not care less what the UK says as long as a deal is made.

True, but it is a clear change in wording. He respects the UK red lines, this is a unique third party deal. Something has changed. Something behind the scenes has happened to cause this. Clearly the markets see this as significant.

There will be significant 'caving-in' on both sides I suspect. Will the EU accept the Chequers deal in the main?

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Will the EU accept the Chequers deal in the main?

No, don't be ridiculous.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, don't be ridiculous.

But how do you account for the change in language? The UK have made it clear that Chequers in the only option, with it being difficult for TM to even get that through parliament, there is little chance of getting anything more aligned to the EU wishes getting through.

So the EU are faced with Chequers deal or no deal at all.

Principles are all well and good until the money starts to get effected.

The EU have history. Coming up to December we were sold the line that Phase 1 must be agreed before Phase 2 could start. But the EU accepted a wishy washy non agreement to get to phase 2. Why not accept another to avoid a no deal. On the basis that both sides will continue to 'work' on a strong relationship

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

True, but it is a clear change in wording. He respects the UK red lines, this is a unique third party deal. Something has changed. Something behind the scenes has happened to cause this.

Yeah, maybe don't trust what you read in the British press!

I've just listened to the full press conference (in German and French). Barnier's statement lasted 5 minutes, of which the first two were dedicated to the unresolved Irish Border obstacle. Ireland first, as promised before, and still the same.

For some strange reason :rolleyes:, those British translations also omitted his declaration that Britain will be expected to scrupulously respect the EU's four pillars. And he qualified the "more than any other third country" idea by explaining that the EU would consider mutually beneficial cooperation in respect of aviation, security and foreign policy. But sure we knew that already.

So absolutely no caving-in whatsoever. None. Not even the slightest hint. :cool:

LeinsterDub

How is this news? Unless the UK or the EU have changed one of their red lines this isn't news. I mean we've always known a bino brexit was possible. What am I missing?

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

But how do you account for the change in language? The UK have made it clear that Chequers in the only option, with it being difficult for TM to even get that through parliament, there is little chance of getting anything more aligned to the EU wishes getting through.

So the EU are faced with Chequers deal or no deal at all.

In the second of two follow up questions, Barnier says "the common ground between us and the British White Paper is that we want a free trade agreement ... we've spent the last 44 years developing the single market with the British ... providing consumer protections for our citizens ... we will not allow that to be undermined."

He repeated the phrase in red for emphasis: so no change in language, other than the lost-in-translation en route to the tabloids.

Calina

Leroy42 wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Link?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-barnier-raab-lidington-no-deal-eu-berlin-pound-sterling-spike-jump-a8513226.html

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1010176/brexit-news-pound-sterling-value-euro-michel-barnier-dominic-raab-market-news-stock-latest

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6110651/Barnier-FINALLY-says-EU-offer-Britain-unique-deal-Brexit.html

When I see it in Frankfurter Allgemeine, Suddeutsche Zeitung, Le Monde, El Pais or Le Figaro I will believe it. The Express or the Mail otoh...

flutered

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How is this news? Unless the UK or the EU have changed one of their red lines this isn't news. I mean we've always known a bino brexit was possible. What am I missing?

what may's deputy livingston told the french today, chequers or no deal

flutered

trellheim wrote: »

Update : https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0829/988339-brexit/

i agree with rte's summing up of things

LeinsterDub

flutered wrote: »

what may's deputy livingston told the french today, chequers or no deal

Do you mean Lidington?

Nody

Calina wrote: »

When I see it in Frankfurter Allgemeine, Suddeutsche Zeitung, Le Monde, El Pais or Le Figaro I will believe it. The Express or the Mail otoh...

They missed a key word there.

We are prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country,"

Third country does not equal EEA access etc.

J Mysterio

breatheme wrote: »

I thoroughly dislike the Express headlines. Those capitals. HUGE blow. Just, ugh.

I just checked it out there... How can they get away with this? It's the most bizarre, farcical propaganda! It's sillier than the National Enquirer, but much more dangerous. Is there not some sort of watchdog or something?

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Funnily enough, I find it hard to muster any sort of disdain for Theresa May. While she is always going to put career and party before country, I do think she does care about the latter unlike Johnson and Gove who seem to only care about themselves.

That is certainly funny 'odd'. She is utterly contemptible. An absolute chameleon with no moral fibre and no character. I think Leroy put it quite well earlier:

Leroy42 wrote: »

the more I see of TM the more I am staggered that this person ever made it to PM. I have yet to see anything even close to leadership. She is bad with people, bad at interviews, bad on camera. She lacks clarity when she talks. It might simply be the way she is, but she comes across to me as always nervous, defensive and unsure. Not having a go at her, but how anybody thought she was ever PM material is beyond me.

This is the person who triggered Article 50 with nary a thought in her head as to the consequences. No plan. As leader of the UK, she is responsible for the mess that has resulted. She is responsible for the level of debate on this in the UK, as well as the UK's ridiculous adversarial approach to the EU. She is the leader of the Tories and the whole gaggle beneath her. She picked her cabinet and chose loathsome individuals such as Gove, Johnson, Davis as her team and then never controlled them as they continuously went on ludicrous solo runs. She is the person who has forged an unholy alliance with the bloody DUP!

I could go on, but it's best for us all if I don't.

Sassygirl1999

May is a social chameleon
She is going ruin Brexit if she's not stopped

J Mysterio

As regards some 'breakthrough' in the talks... I see some quite different reporting in the UK Independent, with the two headlines being:

"Row breaks out between Britain and EU over stalled Brexit talks"

And

"‘Continuous’ Brexit talks not actually happening despite UK–EU pledge"

Capt'n Midnight

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

Are the scallop wars a new sign of remainiac tensions?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45337091

Unpossible wrote: »

I was going to post that too.

If I understand things the area is in French waters, so if the UK goes down the road of not allowing EU boats in their waters, then they will lose access to these fishing grounds.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45342536


The French fishermen are a tad upset over watching foreign boats come in and strip an area just outside of French waters bare while they have to wait until October for their chanc to overfish it.

No one is allowed to fish inside the red line for now. But the area BAY OF SEINE is NOT in French waters. France has restricted scallop fishing to between 1 October and 15 May so French boats aren't allowed catch them in shared EU waters either, but UK (and Irish) boats are.









What this means for Brexit is that unless there is a deal over fishing rights UK boats might not be getting anywhere near this area.

It's complicated because there are other fishing deals older than the EU and Grove has already as much as said that UK fishermen will be shafted on the basis the UK fleet is too small :rolleyes:

Note also that Scotland has a huge chunk of GB waters. NI's share is small but very rich thanks to the Dublin Bay Prawn.


As an aside scallops have lovely blue eyes and can swim quite well.

Leroy42

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

May is a social chameleon
She is going ruin Brexit if she's not stopped

Ruin Brexit? Brexit is a disaster no matter what. TM is simply making the whole process as awful as it was possible to make it.

Spook_ie

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45342536


The French fishermen are a tad upset over watching foreign boats come in and strip an area just outside of French waters bare while they have to wait until October for their chanc to overfish it.

No one is allowed to fish inside the red line for now. But the area BAY OF SEINE is NOT in French waters. France has restricted scallop fishing to between 1 October and 15 May so French boats aren't allowed catch them in shared EU waters either, but UK (and Irish) boats are.









What this means for Brexit is that unless there is a deal over fishing rights UK boats might not be getting anywhere near this area.

It's complicated because there are other fishing deals older than the EU and Grove has already as much as said that UK fishermen will be shafted on the basis the UK fleet is too small :rolleyes:

Note also that Scotland has a huge chunk of GB waters. NI's share is small but very rich thanks to the Dublin Bay Prawn.


As an aside scallops have lovely blue eyes and can swim quite well.

C4 news seem to think it was mainly Scottish fishermen from Aberdeen involved, certainly they were interviewing Scottish fishermen rather than English.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

Ruin Brexit? Brexit is a disaster no matter what. TM is simply making the whole process as awful as it was possible to make it.

Well there is a cohort of brexiteers, usually found in the comment sections of The Telegraph, for whom the only true brexit is the Full English Brexit with absolutely no EU content.



In other woirds the hardest brexit possible. TM is diluting that with her chequers mish-mash partial brexit, or BRINO as they like to call it.

An Ciarraioch

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

Are the scallop wars a new sign of remainiac tensions?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45337091

Unpossible wrote: »

I was going to post that too.

If I understand things the area is in French waters, so if the UK goes down the road of not allowing EU boats in their waters, then they will lose access to these fishing grounds.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45342536


The French fishermen are a tad upset over watching foreign boats come in and strip an area just outside of French waters bare while they have to wait until October for their chanc to overfish it.

No one is allowed to fish inside the red line for now. But the area BAY OF SEINE is NOT in French waters. France has restricted scallop fishing to between 1 October and 15 May so French boats aren't allowed catch them in shared EU waters either, but UK (and Irish) boats are.









What this means for Brexit is that unless there is a deal over fishing rights UK boats might not be getting anywhere near this area.

It's complicated because there are other fishing deals older than the EU and Grove has already as much as said that UK fishermen will be shafted on the basis the UK fleet is too small :rolleyes:

Note also that Scotland has a huge chunk of GB waters. NI's share is small but very rich thanks to the Dublin Bay Prawn.


As an aside scallops have lovely blue eyes and can swim quite well.

Of course, it's ironic for the French to be discussing sustainable fishing, given the activities of its own fleet, but knowing how long it takes shellfish to develop to maturity, some successor bilateral agreement to the CFP really needs to come into play here.

Hurrache

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

lNI's share is small but very rich thanks to the Dublin Bay Prawn.


As an aside scallops have lovely blue eyes and can swim quite well.

What is the deal with Dublin Bay prawns? You find them the continent over at a premium.

Scallops are pretty tasty in fairness to their dreamy eyes.

LeinsterDub

Hurrache wrote: »

What is the deal with Dublin Bay prawns? You find them the continent over at a premium.

Well it's actually a langoustine or lobster not a prawn and it pretty damn tasty. But other than that I'm not sure what your question refers to.

Bigus

Brexit hasn't happened yet, but consumer demand is down , I wonder how next year will be ?

From
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/demand-british-built-cars-continues-fall-july


Car production across the country declined by 11% in July compared with the same period last year, with 121,051 units leaving factories.


Total exports fell by a more modest 4.2% year on year. However, the biggest drop was recorded in the number of new cars produced for the home market at 35%. Just 19,414 non-export models were produced, down from 29,872 in July last year and continuing a production slump from June.

CelticRambler

Bigus wrote: »

However, the biggest drop was recorded in the number of new cars produced for the home market at 35%. Just 19,414 non-export models were produced, down from 29,872 in July last year and continuing a production slump from June.

It'd be interesting to know (or speculate!) how much of that drop was due to high-earning EU professionals deciding not to buy a new car because they weren't sure about their future in the UK. It could be a stark indication of the effect of telling the generators of disposable income to "go home".

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1035083793617629184

As expected nothing has changed

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

It'd be interesting to know (or speculate!) how much of that drop was due to high-earning EU professionals deciding not to buy a new car because they weren't sure about their future in the UK. It could be a stark indication of the effect of telling the generators of disposable income to "go home".

I would think very much. The proportion of UK domestic car sales which are made to "high-earning EU professionals" resident in the UK can't be that great.

It's doubtful that the decline in domestic sales is directly related to Brexit in that way. It's down to sluggish demand/low consumer confidence in the domestic economy generally. If you buy the view that that is due to Brexit uncertainty/fears then, yeah, there is an indirect connection there.

But the real point here is that it emphasises how much the UK auto industry is more and more dependent on exports. 8 out of 10 cars made in the UK are sold abroad. If Brexit buggers that up - and a no-deal Brexit unquestionably will - then, yeah, that's a problem.