Brexit discussion thread IV

FrancieBrady

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

I see rumours of Steve Baker.

Yep Laura K mentioning his name.

Beechwoodspark

No doubt gove will angle his way into that seat now

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/BelfastAgmt/status/1016098291715584000

And an other one!

Thargor

Here we go!

The can kicking has come to an end, we're going to see some action at long last.

jimmycrackcorm

Spanish Eyes wrote:

This is no surprise to me. I don't think he had any influence in the way things were going. He fudged his job, and probably resigned before he was pushed.

It's no surprise to anyone. There's never been any definition of Brexit nor of what the British electorate were voting for. So any decision would bring out the nayers.

The EU would be doing a huge favour for the Tories by simply stating the limited options available.

But it's a pity the UK government didn't do the same when setting out the vote.

Thargor

Fox liked a tweet calling the deal "turd rolled in glitter". Will he go aswell?

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1016026620149321733

Imreoir2

Thargor wrote: »

Here we go!

The can kicking has come to an end, we're going to see some action at long last.

Action Yes, but progress? I would not hold my breath.

Capt'n Midnight

From June 10 https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/971893/david-davis-brexit-theresa-may-resignation-pact

The furious Brexit Secretary agreed with Steve Baker and Suella Braverman that should Mrs May go ahead with her plan to dodge a hard border with Northern Ireland, all three would quit on Thursday.

Today
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/08/david-davis-resigns-brexit-secretary/

Other ministers in his department, including Steve Baker and Suella Braverman are said to have agreed a "you go, we go" pact with Mr Davis, suggesting Mrs May could find herself having to replace the entire Brexit department

Spanish Eyes

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's no surprise to anyone. There's never been any definition of Brexit nor of what the British electorate were voting for. So any decision would bring out the nayers.

The EU would be doing a huge favour for the Tories by simply stating the limited options available.

But it's a pity the UK government didn't do the same when setting out the vote.

Blame Cameron for that one. Trying to speak out of both sides of his mouth just to keep the Eurosceptics happy.

He will go down in history for causing this debacle for Conservative Party reasons, but the effects are for everyone.

LeinsterDub

Suella Braverman gone too.

Capt'n Midnight

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The EU would be doing a huge favour for the Tories by simply stating the limited options available.

At what point in the negotiations did the EU do anything other than that ?




Maybe the UK has been studying the wrong diagaram.


It's the UK that's been meeting behind closed doors and promising white papers and U-turns. The EU position has been up on the comission web site for ages.

cryptocurrency

This is great news and hopefully will see the prospect of a hard brexit get back on track.

The EU will never change and they are not evening offering too. Time to get the hell out of this commie club.

Larbre34

Dr Liam Fox has been the most ineffectual person in such a vital cabinet position in Britain in my memory. He likely will go but it will be merely symbolic in terms of effect.

Ive said on here before that a relative of mine is a constituent of the PMs and knows Philip May pretty well. From my chats with him ive always known Theresa is a trojan horse of Remain sensibilities and that everything she has done up till now has been to string the Brexiteers along this moment to bounce them into a soft brexit strategy, by leaving it late. Theresa May is no mug, she must have done the maths on the inevitable leadership contest and feel even if 70-80 MPs go full rebel, that she has enough pragmatists and modernists in the remaining 230 or so to see her through.

BTW, such is her own pragmatism, I can see May getting the numbers from across the benches to enact a soft brexit and lay the issue to rest, even at the risk of a Labour takeover after the next election. Protecting short-sighted Brits from themselves will be more important to her than her own future or even the Tory's.

Next few days will be fun though, stock up on popcorn.

cryptocurrency

Larbre34 wrote: »

Dr Liam Fox has been the most ineffectual person in such a vital cabinet position in Britain in my memory. He likely will go but it will be merely symbolic in terms of effect.

Ive said on here before that a relative of mine is a constituent of the PMs and knows Philip May pretty well. From my chats with him ive always known Theresa is a trojan horse of Remain sensibilities and that everything she has done up till now has been to string the Brexiteers along this moment to bounce them into a soft brexit strategy, by leaving it late. Theresa May is no mug, she must have done the maths on the inevitable leadership contest and feel even if 70-80 MPs go full rebel, that she has enough pragmatists and modernists in the remaining 230 or so to see her through.

BTW, such is her own pragmatism, I can see May getting the numbers from across the benches to enact a soft brexit and lay the issue to rest, even at the risk of a Labour takeover after the next election. Protecting short-sighted Brits from themselves will be more important to her than her own future or even the Tory's.

Next few days will be fun though, stock up on popcorn.

If the UK do not follow through with a hard brexit then democracy is dead.

Itssoeasy

This brexit mess is like sideshow bob and the rake scene, and that's saying something.

LeinsterDub

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK do not follow through with a hard brexit then democracy is dead.

How can you honestly say people knew they were voting for a hard Brexit?

cryptocurrency

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How can you honestly say people knew they were voting for a hard Brexit?

taking back control is just that.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1016109182288789505

DD's resignation letter

Junkyard Tom

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How can you honestly say people knew they were voting for a hard Brexit?

He can't. Nobody knew what they were voting 'Leave' for because there was no Brexit plan.

Itssoeasy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1016109182288789505

DD's resignation letter

That was fairly soft and sweet. He didn't hold back to be fair to him.

Itssoeasy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Suella Braverman gone too.

Source ? I've only seen David Davis and Baker confirmed as having jumped ship.

briany

I would ask who's going to head up negotiations now that Davis us out, but then I think an empty chair would be as effective, for all the progress they've made.

Itssoeasy

briany wrote: »

I would ask who's going to head up negotiations now that Davis us out, but then I think an empty chair would be as effective, for all the progress they've made.

i'm going to use a Simpson reference here again but an inanimate carbon rod would be better than the British Government.

Itssoeasy

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1016112436389273605

Theresa May has officially responded to David Davis. Two words lads Joke and Shop.

Gerry T

Just a query on the exit bill, the UK will pay for existing commitments, but will they receive monies for assets they hold in the EU, I seem to remember they will offset their liability by about 20b of assets, anyone got a link to info on this please ?

Larbre34

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK do not follow through with a hard brexit then democracy is dead.

I didnt see "hard" leave on the ballot paper, did you?

Having a referendum on a nebulous issue was quite stupidest thing ive ever seen. However, it is in the nature of democracy for things to be fluid and now that reality is dawning, another vote on the final eventuality would be a healthy stretch of the democratic muscle, not the death of it as you opine.

Ive said since the day of the Ref result that Brexit would never happen and each day ive been more convinced of that view. Chequers on Friday and this nonsense tonight merely cements that conviction.

Itssoeasy

Larbre34 wrote: »

I didnt see "hard" leave on the ballot paper, did you?

Having a referendum on a nebulous issue was quite stupidest thing ive ever seen. However, it is in the nature of democracy for things to be fluid and now that reality is dawning, another vote on the final eventuality would be a healthy stretch of the democratic muscle, not the death of it as you opine.

Ive said since the day of the Ref result that Brexit would never happen and each day ive been more convinced of that view. Chequers on Friday and this nonsense tonight merely cements that conviction.

Well the House of Commons is Sovereign not the people like it is here in Ireland where we the people are Sovereign unlike the Dail. Our decision in a referendum is binding, it isn't in the UK.

Larbre34

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well the House of Commons is Sovereign not the people like it is here in Ireland where we the people are Sovereign unlike the Dail. Our decision in a referendum is binding, it isn't in the UK.

I know.

Itssoeasy

Larbre34 wrote: »

I know.

I wasn't saying you didn't know this point Labre34. I was just pointing it out for those who might not be clear. A referendum result in Ireland is different to the UK. The house of Commons are technically under no obligation to carry out the result of the referendum.

Hmm, I'm not so sure this line of thinking can be wholly true.

May was the instigator of inserting 'leaving the Single Market and customs Union' into government policy and entering it into the Tory manifesto.

I can't see how a reckless decision like that can fit with the narrative above.

LuckyLloyd

Gerry T wrote: »

Just a query on the exit bill, the UK will pay for existing commitments, but will they receive monies for assets they hold in the EU, I seem to remember they will offset their liability by about 20b of assets, anyone got a link to info on this please ?

I think such considerations were included in the December agreement on the amount owed upon withdrawal.

LuckyLloyd

‘Taking back control’
‘Will of the people’

Effective sound bytes that don’t stand up to the merest scrutiny.

First Up

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

‘Taking back control’
‘Will of the people’

Effective sound bytes that don’t stand up to the merest scrutiny.

Nothing about Brexit stands up to scrutiny; but it never did.

The real abuse of democracy was entrusting such an important decision to people who didn't understand what it meant.

Davis won't be the last to resign in protest against reality but no doubt some people will keep blaming reality.

Inquitus

It looks like the whole house of cards is going to come tumbling down on May, given 5 of the 6 favourites for next Tory leader are Brexiteers, not sure where that would leave us? I assume they can replace the PM without having to go to the country.

An Ciarraioch

Inquitus wrote: »

It looks like the whole house of cards is going to come tumbling down on May, given 5 of the 6 favourites for next Tory leader are Brexiteers, not sure where that would leave us? I assume they can replace the PM without having to go to the country.

Two precedents in the recent past - firstly, Major replacing Thatcher in 1990, followed by Brown succeeding Blair in 2007.

Nody

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It does, but it has been manipulated and abused over a long period of time in the UK. To leave the EU, a necessarily super complex rules based Union of 27 democracies, would have required a far more lengthy process to facilitate a democratic process. Have a referendum to establish an *intention* to leave the EU; allow for a five year negotiation period to work out a deal with the finer points established and THEN have a referendum on that negotiated draft with strict media rules around spin and lieing to the electorate. If the people still wanted to leave, trigger Article 50 and enact it over two years.

While nice in theory EU was very clear on that they would refuse any and all negotiations before article 50 was triggered as May did try to get some stuff done in advance and EU stonewalled her on the topic. But at least before you trigger article 50 have a basic fact check done for reality and make sure your own ducks are aligned on what the end goal to go for should look like. That is basic management 101 but May (and the rest of the government) believed EU would be a passive participants in the negotiations (and still do apparently) and accept what ever UK proposes.

Bigus

I just heard David Davis live on Radio 4 , he didn't sound like a man leading a revolt( he knows doesn't have the capability) , more so a man protecting his arsé from an inevitable failure of all scenarios.

Beechwoodspark

Irish govt line is that this resignation is an internal British matter and nothing has changed since Friday.

Capt'n Midnight

(non)reaction on the EU side
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-44762836

9:13
EU sees Davis as 'cameo role'

Katya Adler

Europe Editor

The BBC's Europe editor Katya Adler said the news that David Davis was resigning was received in Brussels "with huge interest, but not [with] huge surprise".

One person told her that the Brexit Secretary had not really played more than "a cameo role in the past four months" as he was hardly ever there, and there had been "clear frustration" from the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier as a result.

She added that Olly Robbins, Theresa May's chief European aide, was seen as "the real Brexit secretary" in Brussels.

Leroy42

flatty wrote: »

That is a most interesting, and slightly reassuring post, but, surely she can see that failing to have another referendum is a perversion of democracy given even the change in demographic since the original.
Anyhow I can see why one would be dissuaded from this also.

If true, then how can we reconcile it with her 1st speech on Brexit (Lancaster House I think) where she laid out very hard red lines almost guaranteeing a hard brexit (unless the EU folded).

The logic would need to be that she drove the cabinet, and the country, to believe that hard brexit was a good option when all the time she knew it was a terrible idea? So her grand plan was to lie for two years before finally pulling the big reveal?

Sorry, I'm not buying it

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

(non)reaction on the EU side
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-44762836

There was a reporter on the radio from the FT. They did some analysis and concluded that Davis spent a total of four hours speaking with Barnier in the past year. Robbins, on the other hand, spends many days in Brussels on a monthly basis.

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Two precedents in the recent past - firstly, Major replacing Thatcher in 1990, followed by Brown succeeding Blair in 2007.

Or even TM herself took over from Cameron.

Zubeneschamali

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Irish govt line is that this resignation is an internal British matter and nothing has changed since Friday.

Friday changed nothing either - the only things that matter are the actual negotiations. Until the UK team bring a proposal to the negotiations, all this Chequers/Westminster excitement is just noise.

Itssoeasy

On bbc five live a caller is saying the EU are blocking everything and the uk have been bending over backwards to try and work this out. I mean bending over backwards might not be correct in fairness.

lawred2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

On bbc five live a caller is saying the EU are blocking everything and the uk have been bending over backwards to try and work this out. I mean bending over backwards might not be correct in fairness.

just heard something similar on another phone in show...

mind boggles

Nody

Itssoeasy wrote: »

On bbc five live a caller is saying the EU are blocking everything and the uk have been bending over backwards to try and work this out. I mean bending over backwards might not be correct in fairness.

It all depends on what you think of as the starting position; if you look purely at UK's position May's paper is bending backwards with a year or two ago. That it's still utterly ridiculous and has zero chance in reality does not change that from someone uneducated about EU and how EU works. And that in turn falls back on both the newspapers and more importantly politicians failure to explain EU to the population in the first place which is what lead us here.

Itssoeasy

lawred2 wrote: »

just heard something similar on another phone in show...

mind boggles

Also they seem to think that brexit was the right thing to do and it's going okay. 1) no it's not really and 2) in no way is it going remotely well if looked at objectively.

swampgas

I think DD just wanted a good excuse to get out, he knew there was no way he could deliver on Brexit. Some good comments here:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/he-didnt-want-to-be-left-holding-the-baby-readers-on-davis-resignation

I think this comment nails it:

"The irony is that he is now being described as “principled” for running away from the very process he fought to set in motion’
Davis has wanted an excuse to do this for months: to resign on “principle” instead of having to actually figure out how to proceed with wrecking the country. He almost had it last month and then at the last minute decided it wasn’t going to look “principled” enough.

All his “activity” in “negotiating” with the EU has mostly involved booking flights and hotel rooms. Nothing else was achieved. Every direction he turned he got the same answer: Brexit is a man-made disaster, and all his pontification over the years was based on his own complete ignorance of basic facts about the EU. He spent most of the referendum campaign claiming the U.K. would negotiate individually with Germany, France, etc.! He literally had no clue about even the basics of how the EU works.

The irony is that he is now being described as “principled” for running away from the very process he fought for so long to set in motion, now he’s realised what a disaster it will inevitably be." -danielearwicker

Leroy42

So in effect, DD has admitted that his approach to Brexit and its negotiations has failed miserably, and now has simply walked away with only a few months left.

And instead of blaming himself for failing to deliver anything on which TM could work with, he instead blames TM for failing to deliver despite him complete failure.

ancapailldorcha

Leo Varadkar has weighed in:

Earlier last night, Mr Varadkar said the UK must be a full member of the European Single Market, or else stay out of it entirely, in response to Ms May’s latest Brexit plan.
He gave a cautious welcome to the deal agreed by the British cabinet, which he hailed as a “real political success” for Ms May.

In his first public comments since the UK cabinet agreed the new approach last Friday – which moves Britain towards a so-called soft Brexit – Mr Varadkar said he was more optimistic than before that an EU-UK exit deal could be struck by the end of the year.

I mean, the government knew this full well before employing the divide and conquer tactics and they've frittered away most of the time allowed under Article 50. It seems that they are slowly coming around but deadlines don't allow for slow, unfortunately for them.