Brexit discussion thread IV

CelticRambler

Bit cynical wrote: »

But the EU now object to what is in the joint statement:

[...] In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

Bit cynical wrote: »

You are aware that the EU with Ireland's support agreed to the text I just quoted?

brickster69 wrote: »

You won't get an answer to that for sure.

Here's an answer: the quoted text has been separated from the rest of the paragraph in an attempt to change the context. Typical Brexiteer behaviour. The joint statement's full paragraph reads:

The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

So
(a) any future arrangements must be be compatible; so far the UK hasn't come up with any compatible arrangement;
(b) as they haven't been able to do that, the UK should by now have come up with "specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland"; they haven't; so
(c) the EU is expecting them to stand by their stated intention to maintain full alignment with the Internal Market and Customs Union; the "Chequers" White Paper explicity indicates that the UK does not guarantee that alignment.


Yes, the Ireland and the EU agreed to the last sentence in one paragraph under the heading "Ireland and Northern Ireland", but they're not objecting to the UK remaining in full alignment with the SM/CU. They're objecting to the UK's refusal to agree to stick to anything they've promised while also reserving their right to deviate from any rules they find uncomfortable.

brickster69

You do understand this was a draft agreement don't you ?
The EU has already come up with a suggestion to the problem
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf
Fact is trade talks have to be concluded before the Irish Border is solved. How can it be otherwise ?

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

You do understand this was a draft agreement don't you ?
The EU has already come up with a suggestion to the problem
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf
Fact is trade talks have to be concluded before the Irish Border is solved. How can it be otherwise ?

That's not a fact. Divorce talks need to include a solution to the Irish border and trade talks cannot take place until the divorce talks are complete. That's been the position from the EU from the very start.

CelticRambler

brickster69 wrote: »

You do understand this was a draft agreement don't you ?

Indeed, and from which we have the expression "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed". The British acceptance of what they had provisionally agreed, on on which basis talks moved from Phase 1 to Phase 2, lasted approximately one month, hence the persistent difficulties every since.

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU has already come up with a suggestion to the problem ...

Yeah, that's the recurring theme in all of this: the EU has come up with lots of (practical) suggestions, including carefully documented pros, cons, necessary resources, etc, and powerpoint slides for those who can't cope with adult literature. But it's the English who want to leave, it's the English who can't agree amongst themselves what they want, so it's the English who need to come some suggestion as to how they're going to achieve that.

brickster69 wrote: »

Fact is trade talks have to be concluded before the Irish Border is solved. How can it be otherwise ?

Let's see: by the UK agreeing to the backstop arrangement that they already agreed to, perhaps?

CelticRambler

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU has already come up with a suggestion to the problem
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

Oh, and by the way: that proposed solution is based on the Norway model, including free movement of people, which has been ruled out as an option by the Tories, and it requires the use of hard border infrastructure, the installation of which the UK government has legislated against since negotiations began.


Back to the drawing board.

Imreoir2

brickster69 wrote: »

Fact is trade talks have to be concluded before the Irish Border is solved. How can it be otherwise ?

Its called the backstop, it's been widely discussed here and elsewhere, have you not been paying attention?

Infini

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/no-brexit-deal-without-a-border-backstop-barnier-37271906.html

May be old new's but November look's likely to be the True Endgame of all this. If there's no Agreement by November it's more or less Crash out time for Britain unless they have another referendum on this. They still saying there's hope of an agreement of course but honestly I don't see it happening with how contradictory the British have been throughout all this.

Leroy42

I do find it odd that the likes of ERG, IDS, Davies, Boris etc (so basically a large portion of the government party) have declared Chequers as totally unacceptable, yet at the same time are claiming that the EU are unwilling to make a deal.

By calling for the chucking of chequers, they are effectively accepting that 18 months after the referendum, the UK have failed to even come to a position on what it is that they want, or how anybody is going to deliver it. So what exactly is Raab trying to negotiate since Chequers is not acceptable? Has TM been able to guarantee that a deal based on chequers will get through parliament? And even if it does (and IMO it would as it would provide short term movement before the likes of ERG push to dismantle it) how can the EU think that the deal is worth anything other than a short term fix?

They have now moved to saying that a no deal wouldn't be too bad, TM is claiming today in the Telegraph that although it would cause pain, they would get through it. Of course she doesn't say how they will deal with it at the time, only that the glorious future will make it all worth it.

So is the UK going to compensate the businesses that go bust/loose business in the short term. Will emergency funds be made available to cover additional costs of banking transactions, loss of EH11, additional admin costs for border documents etc?

I really don't understand the posters on here, and the MP's etc in the UK, claiming that the EU are not doing enough when the UK have totally failed to provide anything even close to a position that would be anywhere near to acceptable for either side.

Hurrache

Infini wrote: »

... it's more or less Crash out time for Britain unless they have another referendum on this.

May ruled this out today, it's a gross betrayal of democracy she says without irony.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/01/theresa-may-declares-wont-surrender-brussels-chequers-plan/

J Mysterio

Strong words in an Independent article on that theme:

James Moore: Liam Fox is a lying coward for saying a no-deal Brexit wouldn't be the government's fault

J Mysterio

Hurrache wrote: »

May ruled this out today, it's a gross betrayal of democracy she says without irony.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/01/theresa-may-declares-wont-surrender-brussels-chequers-plan/

This is behind a paywall unfortunately.

Alan_P

Hurrache wrote: »

May ruled this out today, it's a gross betrayal of democracy she says without irony.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/01/theresa-may-declares-wont-surrender-brussels-chequers-plan/

Says she who acquired power by a mystical ceremony wherein she drank tea with a 91 year old woman who herself has no democratic mandate.

Hurrache

You'll get most of what was said here I think
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-rules-out-another-brexit-referendum-2018-9?r=US&IR=T

J Mysterio

Hurrache wrote: »

You'll get most of what was said here I think
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-rules-out-another-brexit-referendum-2018-9?r=US&IR=T

"Theresa May says a 2nd Brexit referendum would be a 'gross betrayal' of democracy and trust".

The first one - and what she has overseen as part of the negotiations - is a gross betrayal of democracy and trust.

Ministers lying about the facts, no referendum commission, and then May unilaterally decides what the vote meant and imposes redlines.

She seems to think she has some magic ability to interpret the will of the people. Clearly she misjudged this after getting her ass handed to her after her poorly judged decision to call the last GE. The people clearly showed they dont like her and her conservatives. They needed the DUP to survive.

She is very wrong to think she understands the people or has a mandate for her particular madness.

EdgeCase

brickster69 wrote: »

You do understand this was a draft agreement don't you ?
The EU has already come up with a suggestion to the problem
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf
Fact is trade talks have to be concluded before the Irish Border is solved. How can it be otherwise ?

I'm not sure where you're getting your information most certainly is not a fact. The EU has been absolutely steadfast in saying there will be no trade talks until there's been an agreement. That has been the fundamental basis of their entire negotiation stance since the very start and they haven't changed position on that at all.

EdgeCase

J Mysterio wrote: »

"Theresa May says a 2nd Brexit referendum would be a 'gross betrayal' of democracy and trust".

The first one - and what she has overseen as part of the negotiations - is a gross betrayal of democracy and trust.

Ministers lying about the facts, no referendum commission, and then May unilaterally decides what the vote meant and imposes redlines.

She seems to think she has some magic ability to interpret the will of the people. Clearly she misjudged this after getting her add handed to her after her poorly judged decision to call the last GE. The people clearly showed they dont like her and her conservatives. They needed the DUP to survive.

She is very wrong to think she understands the people or has a mandate for her particular madness.

There's clearly nothing more betraying of democracy and trust then trusting people to make a democratic decision based on a referendum.

The hypocrisy of the statements from the Tories on this are beyond words. It's like Newspeak from 1984 has come alive.

What's she's actually telling the public is : you've made your bed! Muhahaha.

J Mysterio

Irish Times: May says Britain will not compromise with EU over Brexit plan

British prime minister Theresa May said she would not compromise with Brussels over her plans for Brexit as a media report said rivals in her party were set to publish their own proposal calling for a cleaner break with the European Union.

With under two months before Britain and the EU want to agree a deal to end over 40 years of union, Ms May is struggling to sell what she calls her business-friendly Brexit to her own party and across a divided country.

The EU has tentatively welcomed what has become known as the Chequers plan, which is designed to protect cross-border trade, but difficult negotiations lie ahead.

“I will not be pushed into accepting compromises on the Chequers proposals that are not in our national interest,” Ms May wrote in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper.

“The coming months will be critical in shaping the future of our country and I am clear about my mission.”

.....

So no compromises? No Deal Brexit.
Everyone knows Chequers is unworkable.
What a pathetically useless PM.

Christy42

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The UK's inability to negotiate with friendly long time closest neighbours even a basic deal (while continuing to draw red lines and shred previous agreements such as GFA) should be very worrying to businesses in UK.

If they are unable to reach a deal with EU then how the hell do they hope to deal with likes of Trump or China?

The UK hasn't been able to negotiate with the UK. Chequers took 2 years from the vote and was the first time the UK had a negotiating position and even then it caused a large chunk of the cabinet to resign.

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

There's clearly nothing more betraying of democracy and trust then trusting people to make a democratic decision based on a referendum.

And ignoring that in the meantime the people spoke in a general election and she lost an overall majority.

The hypocrisy of the statements from the Tories on this are beyond words. It's like Newspeak from 1984 has come alive.

What's she's actually telling the public is : you've made your bed! Muhahaha.

Pretty much,
I'm still going with her wanting to get rid of the European courts being an acceptable silver lining of a Hard Brexit. I'm still not sure she'd accept the courts if they were offered a resonable deal.

Leroy42

But this 'will of the people' is all well and good except that all the reports, and TM admits it herself today, that Brexit will cause pain. The only good point they can make is that it could maybe be in the short term, but that position is based on nothing but hope.

I am fed up with Tory MP's coming on whatever radio or TV show saying that they simply need to get on with it. Get on with what? They still haven't moved on from "Brexit means Brexit". The interviewer never ask them to elaborate on what getting on with it means. Is it Chequers or No Deal? What if, as is likely, the UK cannot even agree on Chequers, should they still proceed? Why is the MP in a rush to get to extra costs and loss of jobs (in the short term) and what MP secured to protect their constituency from any negative effects?

They have committed to no border in NI, yet seem happy enough with a no deal, which means a border!

Even Davies is back on the TV and actually being given the time to pontificate what TM is doing wrong. This man that failed miserably to get anything done in the two years he had in the job. Instead he should simply be asked why he wasn't able to do the job and how he has the gall to complain about others.

briany

J Mysterio wrote: »

"Theresa May says a 2nd Brexit referendum would be a 'gross betrayal' of democracy and trust".

The first one - and what she has overseen as part of the negotiations - is a gross betrayal of democracy and trust.

Both sides have accused the other of not respecting democracy, and they are entrenched in their views. I'm not even saying who's right or who's wrong anymore because people have their minds made up, but the democracy thing is just said so much that it's fading into background noise. If Remain supporters want to break the deadlock, new angles will need to be found.

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

If Remain supporters want to break the deadlock, new angles will need to be found.

All the angles have been laid out, principal of which is 'let's not have a Mad Max wasteland'. If the existig remain arguments havent got traction with and mobilised the British people at this point, nothing will.

lawred2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Irish Times: May says Britain will not compromise with EU over Brexit plan

British prime minister Theresa May said she would not compromise with Brussels over her plans for Brexit as a media report said rivals in her party were set to publish their own proposal calling for a cleaner break with the European Union.

With under two months before Britain and the EU want to agree a deal to end over 40 years of union, Ms May is struggling to sell what she calls her business-friendly Brexit to her own party and across a divided country.

The EU has tentatively welcomed what has become known as the Chequers plan, which is designed to protect cross-border trade, but difficult negotiations lie ahead.

“I will not be pushed into accepting compromises on the Chequers proposals that are not in our national interest,” Ms May wrote in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper.

“The coming months will be critical in shaping the future of our country and I am clear about my mission.”

.....

So no compromises? No Deal Brexit.
Everyone knows Chequers is unworkable.
What a pathetically useless PM.

Thought the ERG had already killed the Chequers plan!????

joeysoap

Sunday Times showing their hand again? I know they are ‘only’ reporting on the formation of the new right wing anti Eu party but it’s the way they comment on the three main characters that makes their views clear.

An Claidheamh

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farages-key-aide-ira-8072605.amp


They're a funny group alright

Leroy42

briany wrote: »

If Remain supporters want to break the deadlock, new angles will need to be found.

Like what?

Democracy is a non runner. Economics is a non runner.

Actual facts are a non runner. The lies told in the campaign are a non runner.

Election fraud is a non runner. Lack of any plan is a non runner.

An Claidheamh

joeysoap wrote: »

Sunday Times showing their hand again? I know they are ‘only’ reporting on the formation of the new right wing anti Eu party but it’s the way they comment on the three main characters that makes their views clear.

A bit like when the US under Bush needed Britain and other countries to try and justify their coalition of the willing in the Middle East, there is no doubt that the British media (of which the Sunday Times "Ireland" is) need other countries to spout the same jingoistic neanderthal stuff their populace believe.

It smacks of desperation on their part and will most likely intensify when Brexit becomes a mess.

Shame they could not have put their energy in challenging anti-EU propaganda.

Also, once again the British media will not take responsibility for their actions.

Sierra Oscar

Looks like May is facing further serious pressure from the hard-Brexit Tory backbenchers ahead of parliament returning if today’s Sunday paper reports are to be believed.

Hard to see how she can compromise in the negotiations without being deposed.

Infini

I'll be honest I think what's likely to happen is that there will be a "no deal" Brexit announcement as the EU is not able to get an agreement with a broken UK. The minute this becomes apparent there will be political chaos followed by probably a GE and likely Corbyn winning. After this he'll likely be faced with agreeing to any agreement he can get and promptly and rightly hang it on the Conservatives because they wasted so much time or possibly the Remain forces in the party might push for a 2nd vote to overturn the 1st on the Basis that with so little time left only cancelling Brexit can get them out of the mess they were lead into. Won't make the issue's go away but it would buy a good deal of breathing space to try and sort things out and at least put this whole thing to bed for a while.

Sassygirl1999

Infini wrote: »

I'll be honest I think what's likely to happen is that there will be a "no deal" Brexit announcement as the EU is not able to get an agreement with a broken UK. The minute this becomes apparent there will be political chaos followed by probably a GE and likely Corbyn winning. After this he'll likely be faced with agreeing to any agreement he can get and promptly and rightly hang it on the Conservatives because they wasted so much time or possibly the Remain forces in the party might push for a 2nd vote to overturn the 1st on the Basis that with so little time left only cancelling Brexit can get them out of the mess they were lead into. Won't make the issue's go away but it would buy a good deal of breathing space to try and sort things out and at least put this whole thing to bed for a while.

there is going to be a mass exodus of remoaniacs trying to flee into our country when the proverbial hits the fan upon any such announcement which would likely be the start of the end for the UK