Brexit discussion thread IV

trellheim

Unless David Davis gets Steve Baker and his band onside Chequers is finished. I've been looking through the tweets and it does not frankly look good.

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Wow, is that the first poll showing majority support for unification in NI?

Obviously you have to take it with a pinch of salt given that NI is notoriously hard to poll accurately and the question is hypothetical, but still it shows that opinion may well be shifting given that similar polls were showing majority support for staying in the UK until recently.

One thing to remember is that what counts at the end of the day is peoples well being. Noone bar some tiny minority of idiots wants the bad old days back. I would say quietly the more reasonable parts of the unionist community are quietly looking at the more practical elements of a UI as they realise its better to be prepared and ready for that eventuallity. The DUPs reckoning will come theyre the ones that wanted Brexit and ruination will be the result.

FrancieBrady

Infini wrote: »

One thing to remember is that what counts at the end of the day is peoples well being. Noone bar some tiny minority of idiots wants the bad old days back. I would say quietly the more reasonable parts of the unionist community are quietly looking at the more practical elements of a UI as they realise its better to be prepared and ready for that eventuallity. The DUPs reckoning will come theyre the ones that wanted Brexit and ruination will be the result.

There has to be DUPer's looking at what is happening and looking at the leadership.
Crazy what they have ushered along here faster than even the wildest dreaming republican could have dreamed.

Islandgirl3378

Are we heading for two different time zones on the island?

EU to stop time zone change, NI unionists saying they won’t comply.

Imreoir2

Islandgirl3378 wrote: »

Are we heading for two different time zones on the island?

EU to stop time zone change, NI unionists saying they won’t comply.

This would be amazing, Brexit is worth it just for this, imagine when the DUP is literally living in the past.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1036386132714504192


The quality of the own goal is quite mesmerising.


Imagine being a hardcore unionist seeing that headline in the morning.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1036369535329284096
A not so United Kingdom

J Mysterio

In other news, the Department for Exiting the EU seems to be struggling a bit:

Hundreds of staff leave the Brexit department.
Turnover leads to claims of 'deep instability' as half total number of workers go

I'd imagine morale would be a bit low there given that you never know what you're supposed to be doing and your management keep arguing amongst themselves.

Meanwhile, David Davis is happily declaring his intention to vote against May's last desperate crumbling hope. I'd imagine that would hurt given that she's only been bribing the DUP for lack of numbers. It doesn't look like she has te support for Chequers from within her own party.

Brexit: David Davis confirms he will vote against Theresa May's Chequers deal in the commons
The news makes the failure of Ms May's plans as they stand more likely to fall in a commons vote due in the next six months 

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1036386132714504192


The quality of the own goal is quite mesmerising.


Imagine being a hardcore unionist seeing that headline in the morning.

I'd say that's gonna scare the shít out of some of the headbanger's in the DUP this morning when they see this. They've actually managed to help push through such a short sighted and completely self defeating agenda by the conservative's that they're basically shooting themselves in the face.

The status quo before Brexit muted the whole United Ireland agenda because everyone was content. By backing Brexit they've made people start to question long term what a UI would actually MEAN for them. "Catholic Ireland" and "Rome Rule" are the past same as some of the DUP heads. Realistically people are gonna look first at what a Hard Brexit means for them, what it will cost them, how pathetic their current political class have acted in all of this and finally what benefit's they get out of a UI option and considering that they could end up quickly with far more to gain by reuniting with the rest of the Island along with the benefit's of the EU and that option becomes VERY tempting.

Bit cynical

CelticRambler wrote: »

Here's an answer: the quoted text has been separated from the rest of the paragraph in an attempt to change the context. Typical Brexiteer behaviour. The joint statement's full paragraph reads:

The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

So
(a) any future arrangements must be be compatible; so far the UK hasn't come up with any compatible arrangement;
(b) as they haven't been able to do that, the UK should by now have come up with "specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland"; they haven't; so
(c) the EU is expecting them to stand by their stated intention to maintain full alignment with the Internal Market and Customs Union; the "Chequers" White Paper explicity indicates that the UK does not guarantee that alignment.


Yes, the Ireland and the EU agreed to the last sentence in one paragraph under the heading "Ireland and Northern Ireland", but they're not objecting to the UK remaining in full alignment with the SM/CU. They're objecting to the UK's refusal to agree to stick to anything they've promised while also reserving their right to deviate from any rules they find uncomfortable.

The problem is that the document is inconsistant as it stands regardless of what the UK do. If the UK offer regulatory alignment which would allow for a soft border with freedom of movement of people under the CTA, the EU would object as it doesn't allow for full freedom of movement for all of the EU. Therefore no deal. Therefore hard border for Ireland etc.

Peregrinus

cml387 wrote: »

Michel Barnier would be wise not to carry out his negotiations with the UK via the
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung or any other media outlet.

He's not. He spent five hours closeted with Raab two days before this interview, remember. You can be fairly sure that what he said in the interview is what he said to Raab.

I'm guessing that the purpose of the interview is to force Raab to address the EU's position; to prevent him from suggesting that it is other than it is, or from giving the impression that agreement on Chequers is closer than it is.

I think what we may be seeing here may also be Barnier attempting to break out of a pattern which has developed under which:

(a) Barnier (or another EU figure) says something diplomatic/conciliatory about some aspect of the UK position,

(b) this is then wildly misinterpreted/spun by UK leaders or commentators, so that

(c) EU figures have to make a more plainly-spoken correction.

We saw this most recently, where Barnier said about Chequers pretty well word-for-word exactly what he said a month ago, and this was hailed as signalling a volte-face by the Commission, leading to a spike in sterling.

This time, Barnier is basically cutting straight through to step (c).

Peregrinus

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is there any evidence that a second referendum would produce a ifferent result, and would it be sufficient to end this Brexit BS?

I think a vote of 55% in favour would be needed to quiet the Brexit lot, but not for long.

Well, we've just seen that a 52/48 vote doesn't settle a question decisively.

And, in the present circumstances, I seriously doubt that even a 55/45 vote the other way would settle it either.

I think the point of a second referendum would not be to settle the question decisively, but to change the course of events. A second referendum which voted against Brexit would at least result in the present Brexit process being halted. Of course Brexiters would continue to press for Brexit - and they'd have a perfect democratic right to do that - but this time round they (and the electorate) would have to learn from the mistakes of the past, and they'd have to come up with an actual, concrete, specific, Brexit roadmap - not the unicorny, cakey, all-things-to-all-men Brexit that they got a mandate for in 2016 but could not deliver.

Havockk

BoJo getting the knives out for May now. Clear Chequers is not going to fly now, but is this the revolt against her starting to gather pace? Is the timing right?

Nody

Havockk wrote: »

BoJo getting the knives out for May now. Clear Chequers is not going to fly now, but is this the revolt against her starting to gather pace? Is the timing right?

Depends on what you think the goal is; if it is to ensure hard crash out to ensure no deal by November I think the timing is right (not that May's deal would have been approved by EU anyway but to ensure there's no possibility of a deal it may be required as May is known to flop around). For leadership challenge I expect them to wait until just after the crash out (have a week or two of chaos as excuse for the move) and this is simply setting up the groundwork of "I was against this bad Brexit all along" to ensure they can try to avoid the blame for the chaos and be the saviour instead.

LuckyLloyd

Personally speaking, I find the divisions in the two main parties deeply uninteresting at this point. It’s a complete distraction and sideshow to the closing reality of Brexit: something so much bigger than the internal party strife that facilitated its creation. The choice is May or Johnson or Corbyn so, really, the conversation can move onto the machinations of No Deal as that’s where we’re headed.

There was a huge kerfuffle around Johnson and Davis resigning but it’s changed precisely nothing.

Leroy42

How can Raab be calling for continuous negotiations when it is abundantly clear that the very basis for the UK position, Chequers, is a non starter?

How can the EU be expected to negotiate when the UK does not even have a position itself?

Also, it must be deeply frustrating for all those that want remain, or even a vote on the final deal, that the summer when the Tory has been locked in a public squabble over Chequers, Labour have spent the entire time arguing over whether their leader and others in the party are racists/anti-semites or not.

Under any normal leader, Labour would be crushing the Tories in the polls at this stage.

zapitastas

Infini wrote: »

I'd say that's gonna scare the shít out of some of the headbanger's in the DUP this morning when they see this. They've actually managed to help push through such a short sighted and completely self defeating agenda by the conservative's that they're basically shooting themselves in the face.

The status quo before Brexit muted the whole United Ireland agenda because everyone was content. By backing Brexit they've made people start to question long term what a UI would actually MEAN for them. "Catholic Ireland" and "Rome Rule" are the past same as some of the DUP heads. Realistically people are gonna look first at what a Hard Brexit means for them, what it will cost them, how pathetic their current political class have acted in all of this and finally what benefit's they get out of a UI option and considering that they could end up quickly with far more to gain by reuniting with the rest of the Island along with the benefit's of the EU and that option becomes VERY tempting.

The secretary of state will be coming under serious pressure to call a border poll under the terms the GFA. If another poll or two point to a majority in favour of unification it is end game

Imreoir2

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, we've just seen that a 52/48 vote doesn't settle a question decisively.

That it is not a settled question has less to do with the margin of the result and more to do with the imposibility of delevering the result in a way that is acceptable to those who favour Brexit without also causing siginificant damage to the economey. Had the result been 55/45 or 60/40 the dificulty of delevering the "will of the people" would be no less.

Leroy42

Pressure from who? SF would be mad to call for one at the moment. The wind is at the back of a UI, they simply need to let Brexit play out the way it is going. There are really two options left for the UK. (based on what we currently know)

A) Crash out with massive implications for the UK economy, and you can be sure that the subvention to NI will be soon on the list of why are we paying this.
or - they can accept the backstop and thus, per the POV of the DUP, have sold out the union and cast it adrift.

Neither one is going to hurt that cause of a UI.

Now would be a terrible time and at best result in a marginal victory.

Imreoir2

zapitastas wrote: »

The secretary of state will be coming under serious pressure to call a border poll under the terms the GFA. If another poll or two point to a majority in favour of unification it is end game

Not all that likely, there is a big difference between I would vote for X, and I will vote for x. Going by the poll, support for unification is conditional on the type of Brexit delivered.

Even if there is a no-deal brexit and momentum swings behind unification, you can expect people who are now saying they would support unification to vote to stay in the UK anyway. It is much easier to say you would do something than to actually do it. There wont be any border poll until well after Brexit, and when it comes people will be a lot more carefull about weighing up their options than merely expressing their frustration at how things seem to be going.

zapitastas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Not all that likely, there is a big difference between I would vote for X, and I will vote for x. Going by the poll, support for unification is conditional on the type of Brexit delivered.

Even if there is a no-deal brexit and momentum swings behind unification, you can expect people who are now saying they would support unification to vote to stay in the UK anyway. It is much easier to say you would do something than to actually do it. There wont be any border poll until well after Brexit, and when it comes people will be a lot more carefull about weighing up their options than merely expressing their frustration at how things seem to be going.

When it looks like there will be a majority in favour of a UI then under the terms of an international treaty a border poll has to be called. If a few polls show this to be the case then the poll can't be held off for long. The clock is ticking and getting louder.

EdgeCase

There's a huge problem in the sense that the UK Government and media is continuing to negotiate with itself. A big chunk of the media and public now seem to be of the opinion that getting 'Chequers' over the line is all that needs to happen.

Meanwhile Labour is basically preoccupied with an internal row on the definition of anti-Semitism and Corbyn appears to go into PMQ and ask questions about anything other than Brexit.

From what I can see at this stage, it will be a chaotic Brexit and probably unagreed. I can't see any prospect, whatsoever, of the government or political system even being capable of negotiating an agreement.

May is heading an in-fighting minority government which means that neither her nor her ministers have any mandate to take decisions on Brexit. They're undermined at every step even if they wanted to have a constructive negotiation with the EU.

The whole thing is completely nuts.

If the DUP has any sense of what's coming for Northern Ireland and the huge economic threat *they* are enabling, they would do that right and withdraw support for the government. However, so far, they've been inexplicably very pro Brexit while parroting May's line on an undeliverable soft border.
I can only assume that their agenda is to wreck the Good Friday Agreement. It would make sense as they've never been subscribed to it anyway.

If there isn't a general election very soon in the UK, Brexit will coast through, totally uncontrolled by anyone. They'll simply fall out of Europe.

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

Unless David Davis gets Steve Baker and his band onside Chequers is finished.

The Chequers proposal was ruled out by the EU before the Chequers meeting even happened. it is utterly irrelevant except as a illustration of the disconnect between the UK government and reality.

EdgeCase

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Chequers proposal was ruled out by the EU before the Chequers meeting even happened. it is utterly irrelevant except as a illustration of the disconnect between the UK government and reality.

Everyone, except the bubble of UK politics and media, seems to be aware of that fact.

March will arrive and they'll have, at best, a negotiating position!

J Mysterio

Leroy42 wrote: »

it must be deeply frustrating for all those that want remain, or even a vote on the final deal, that the summer when the Tory has been locked in a public squabble over Chequers, Labour have spent the entire time arguing over whether their leader and others in the party are racists/anti-semites or not.

Under any normal leader, Labour would be crushing the Tories in the polls at this stage.

Absolutely. Corbyn is a completely ineffectual wet towel. This is a historic moment that requires decisive action and any opposition leader worth his salt would blow away the shower of incompetents on the other side. He just can't seize the moment, events are bigger than him. I always think Corbyn should be the head of a Village Green Preservation Society or something.

Igotadose

J Mysterio wrote: »

Absolutely. Corbyn is a completely ineffectual wet towel. This is a historic moment that requires decisive action and any opposition leader worth his salt would blow away the shower of incompetents on the other side. He just can't seize the moment, events are bigger than him. I always think Corbyn should be the head of a Village Green Preservation Society or something.

I've not been a follower of UK politics prior to moving to Ireland 4 years ago, yet from what I've seen of Labor and Corbyn, I totally agree 1000%. He's some sort of throwback old red that can't get out of his way. With regard to the current seemingly endless anti-semitism row he really shows his inability to quell issues at all. With his milquetoast position on Brexit, he's failing his constituents.

Brexit should be a giant opportunity for his party to carve out an anti-Brexit position, but since his lukewarm 'remain' position prior to the referendum and ever since, he's been nothing but, well, nothing.

I can certainly sympathize with the UK voter - who *do* you vote for? Labor? They're a joke. Tories? Just as bad. And all Brexit's allowed the lot to do, is ignore everything else going on in the UK that isn't called Brexit, to the detriment of the country. UK's going to be in a hole for years if they don't Brexit, and decades if they do, and their leadership is scary bad.

Enzokk

Water John wrote: »

That poll Kermit shows the absolute stupidity of the DUP. The crowd propping up the UK Govn't. The EU offer would have solidified NI present political position.

This whole affair hasn't shown the politicians in a great light. The DUP should be aware that the biggest threat regarding a united Ireland was a change in circumstances for the people of NI and a change for the people of Ireland. With both countries in the EU their circumstances economically would be relatively the same. Its not like Ireland has any resources that the UK doesn't have so its not like we could improve our situation with natural gas or oil over the UK. So keeping the status quo would have meant NI as part of the UK for as long as both remained in the EU. Instead someone or more than one person had the idea that if the UK leaves the EU and does better they will rid the question for all time. The stupidity is not knowing why the UK was doing well economically and throwing all their eggs in a basket that will break.

Then we have the Conservatives, who has been fighting against their greatest leaders decision for so long. Let's not forget it was Margaret Thatcher that was in charge of the UK when the integration of the EU really started and if you read her statements on the EU she would have been aghast at the likes of Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Yet they probably hold her in the highest esteem and would worship at her feet if they could. So you had a party who led the way in to an integrated EU fighting to leave it. Then you had a leader who also gambled on a question he thought would settle the dispute forever. This is the same as the DUP and both lost. David Cameron should have triggered article 50 the day after the vote. He should have appointed Boris Johnson and Michael Gove as the head of leaving the EU and let them at the EU. It would have worked out no worse than we have now and maybe he would have had the balls to call them on their lies when it came out that they couldn't promise the people £350m per week for the NHS and either called for a new vote or cancelled Brexit. But he ran like the coward he is.

Now we have Labour. They have the leader I think the party needs right now. Yes his polling may be bad, but lets be honest even if they had a more moderate leader the press would savage whoever is head of the Labour party. At least Corbyn is able to mobilize the base of the party and get more younger voters involved. The biggest problem for Labour is that he has a blind spot about the EU as well. If they would get behind reversing this decision they would actually start leading the polls I believe and that momentum would make them unstoppable. But he sees Brexit as a way of implementing his policies without the restrictions the EU would place on them so he would gladly let his voters suffer economically to follow his own path.

So there we have 3 parties that are at the moment not thinking about the people but only about themselves. And this is why Brexit is a disaster. You have to look at admiration at the SNP and Sinn Féin and how they are handling this. The SNP almost threw it away as well with all their talks about a 2nd referendum for independence. It was not what people wanted when nothing had changed at that time. They have let Brexit play its course and the worse it becomes the easier it will be for them. You have their opposition in Scotland who is from the party that is leading the country to hardship. And while the Scottish Conservatives are for staying in the EU, their votes are helping Theresa May get Brexit through The Commons. How do you as a leader explain that? I am for staying in the EU, but my fellow party members just voted against my stance? Good luck selling that to the voters that voted against leaving the EU.

We really are in an age of stupidity, where we have these clowns running Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

J Mysterio wrote: »

He just can't seize the moment, events are bigger than him.

He's not seizing this moment because the Tories are currently punching themselves and each other in the face. Why stop them?

As for Brexit, it is well known that Corbyn is not a fan of the EU. He is quite happy to let the Tories bumble into a no deal crashout, since that will destroy the Tories for a generation and leave Labour in Government by default.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He's not seizing this moment because the Tories are currently punching themselves and each other in the face. Why stop them?

As for Brexit, it is well known that Corbyn is not a fan of the EU. He is quite happy to let the Tories bumble into a no deal crashout, since that will destroy the Tories for a generation and leave Labour in Government by default.

I see a lot of young activists are posting a lot of anti-EU information. I think this is because they, just like Corbyn, see the EU as a obstacle to nationalising everything they want. They have the same blind spot that he has. I would rather Labour be in charge for the ordinary people in the UK, but if they don't change direction they are the same as the Tories. They will gladly see people suffer for a few years for their own ideology. A lot of people cannot see the wood for the trees here, the scary thing is they are in charge of our fate as well and that angers me.

Water John

Corbyn harks back to the power of the Unions and State ownership of the 1970s. He sees the EU as a key blocker of this Holy Grail.