Brexit discussion thread IV

ArmaniJeanss

Dominic Raab moves from Housing to be the new Brexit Minister.

wiki bio
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Raab

Professor Moriarty

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Dominic Raab moves from Housing to be the new Brexit Minister.

wiki bio
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Raab

A Brexiteer.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

So in effect, DD has admitted that his approach to Brexit and its negotiations has failed miserably, and now has simply walked away with only a few months left.

And instead of blaming himself for failing to deliver anything on which TM could work with, he instead blames TM for failing to deliver despite him complete failure.

Mod: No more name calling please.

Water John

The Hard Brexiteers have lost faith in both Gove and Johnson, it seems. Let that small club coalesce around Mogg.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/08/haunted-boris-johnson-toes-the-soft-brexit-line-for-now

Johnson quoted recently as saying, 'we might as well stay in the EU', says it all really.
Davis, Gove and Johnson, all considered potential leaders have all been fatally damaged by Brexit.

Imreoir2

While it seems that despite the obviously flawed nature of the UK's proposal, May does want to move in the direction of an acceptable and close relationship with the EU. The basic problems that have been there from the start remain unchanged, however. She has at best 20 weeks to sort the mess out and get a deal agreed. Does anyone believe that she can climb down from all her red lines, and agree a backstop in that period of time?

What I am not clear on is the level of detail needed by the end of the year. My understanding is that a full deal does not need to be in place, only the Withdrawl Treaty (of which it is really only the Backstop that is missing) and a "detailed joint political declaration" on the future relationship, which can be put into final form during the transition period. The question is, just how detailed does the political declaration have to be? Of course the EU wont agree to a declaration that accepts the breakup of the single market etc, but there might be some room for manouver, and constructive fudging there? Then again, the willingness of the EU to accomodate the UK in this way is surely at a low ebb by now.

May might be hoping that if she can get the withdrawl treaty sorted, the EU will allow her to phrase the future relationship section of the agreement in sufficiently vague terms to allow negioation to move forward into the transition phase without having to compleatly abandon her red lines domestically before the end of the year.

If that is her game, she might be planning to make a few concessions on the future relationship and to hold back the backstop, and only agree to it at the last minute, selling it at home as the necessary evil to prevent a no-deal Brexit. She might be hoping that the EU will accept the withdrawl treaty and allow some of the other issues to be kicked into the transition period.

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

Mod: No more name calling please.

that looks like whatever name calling you've objected to was aimed at Leroy - the poster I quoted

for the record it wasn't

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

that looks like whatever name calling you've objected to was aimed at Leroy - the poster I quoted

for the record it wasn't

I'm aware of that. It was aimed at David Davis. Either way, it's unacceptable. Let's leave it at that.

McGiver

cryptocurrency wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How can you honestly say people knew they were voting for a hard Brexit?

taking back control is just that.

Control they never lost? Hilarious.

Enzokk

So Andrea Leadsom on The Daily Politics just said that free movement of people will end. That is fine, it can be a fudged, but what was interesting is that she said that unlike the interview Theresa May gave on Saturday EU citizens will not be given preferential treatment over any other nation. So we are back to a hard Brexit again.

Then again she is also under the pretension that if the UK is a part of the single market they will not be a rule taker. So in one way you can ignore her as her views seems completely void of logic, yet she is in Cabinet and she will have a lot of supporters as well.

flatty

Leroy42 wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

That is a most interesting, and slightly reassuring post, but, surely she can see that failing to have another referendum is a perversion of democracy given even the change in demographic since the original.
Anyhow I can see why one would be dissuaded from this also.

If true, then how can we reconcile it with her 1st speech on Brexit (Lancaster House I think) where she laid out very hard red lines almost guaranteeing a hard brexit (unless the EU folded).

The logic would need to be that she drove the cabinet, and the country, to believe that hard brexit was a good option when all the time she knew it was a terrible idea? So her grand plan was to lie for two years before finally pulling the big reveal?

Sorry, I'm not buying it

Me neither tbh.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

So Andrea Leadsom on The Daily Politics just said that free movement of people will end. That is fine, it can be a fudged, but what was interesting is that she said that unlike the interview Theresa May gave on Saturday EU citizens will not be given preferential treatment over any other nation. So we are back to a hard Brexit again.

Then again she is also under the pretension that if the UK is a part of the single market they will not be a rule taker. So in one way you can ignore her as her views seems completely void of logic, yet she is in Cabinet and she will have a lot of supporters as well.

Surely freedom of movement can not end in any situation short of hard Brexit!

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

So Andrea Leadsom on The Daily Politics just said that free movement of people will end. That is fine, it can be a fudged

Well, no. That means they are right out of the Single Market for goods, which is something May claims she wants.

Zubeneschamali

lawred2 wrote: »

Surely freedom of movement can not end in any situation short of hard Brexit!

It means no Single Market, but they could still have a Free Trade deal like Canada, a Customs Union like Turkey or an Association Agreement like Ukraine.

It is all the other UK red lines which rule those out.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

So Andrea Leadsom on The Daily Politics just said that free movement of people will end. That is fine, it can be a fudged, but what was interesting is that she said that unlike the interview Theresa May gave on Saturday EU citizens will not be given preferential treatment over any other nation. So we are back to a hard Brexit again.

Then again she is also under the pretension that if the UK is a part of the single market they will not be a rule taker. So in one way you can ignore her as her views seems completely void of logic, yet she is in Cabinet and she will have a lot of supporters as well.

That means no chance of access to the Single Market. Every other EU and Single Market member accepts freedom of movement : there is no opt out of this on offer to any country,

Harika

On LBC they said that until now Boris Johnson has held still, does he resign, Theresa May will be challenged and might be down before Trumps visit on Thursday.

judeboy101

lawred2 wrote: »

Surely freedom of movement can not end in any situation short of hard Brexit!

Fom can be fudged, just look at how EU fudged it post Swiss referendum.

Beechwoodspark

Harika wrote: »

On LBC they said that until now Boris Johnson has held still, does he resign, Theresa May will be challenged and might be down before Trumps visit on Thursday.

Trump might even be tempted to meddle. Farage probably imploring him to.

judeboy101

Harika wrote: »

On LBC they said that until now Boris Johnson has held still, does he resign, Theresa May will be challenged and might be down before Trumps visit on Thursday.

He's at a Baltic conference in London today he has a scheduled press con at 5ish, we will know then.

Harika

judeboy101 wrote: »

He's at a Baltic conference in London today he has a scheduled press con at 5ish, we will know then.

Sun is pushing him already but he was also told that if he doesn't back TM he might be out for any future leadership of the party.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

Fom can be fudged, just look at how EU fudged it post Swiss referendum.

I'm no expert in Swiss politics but it was my understanding that it was the Swiss who did the fudging. They still have FOM but no can give priority to Swiss nationals.

Last Friday, the Swiss parliament adopted a bill that gives priority to Swiss-based job seekers - Swiss nationals and foreigners registered in Swiss job agencies - but which avoids quotas on EU citizens

https://euobserver.com/justice/136398

judeboy101

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'm no expert in Swiss politics but it was my understanding that it was the Swiss who did the fudging. They still have FOM but no can give priority to Swiss nationals.



https://euobserver.com/justice/136398

Priority bit is the EU fudge, goes against free movement. Imagine if Spain said Spanish ppl must get offered jobs before Irish ppl.

McGiver

judeboy101 wrote: »

lawred2 wrote: »

Surely freedom of movement can not end in any situation short of hard Brexit!

Fom can be fudged, just look at how EU fudged it post Swiss referendum.

FoM can't be fudged. And the Swiss did the fudging not the EU. The EU took quite hard steps. Also, the EU don't want another Swiss-like bilateral treaties hell and certainly not with the UK which has literally no reputation left. The Swiss reputation in honouring agreements is much, much better.

judeboy101

Harika wrote: »

Sun is pushing him already but he was also told that if he doesn't back TM he might be out for any future leadership of the party.

He has missed the momentum. He should have left anytime before DD, now he will look like "sloppy seconds" .

McGiver

judeboy101 wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'm no expert in Swiss politics but it was my understanding that it was the Swiss who did the fudging. They still have FOM but no can give priority to Swiss nationals.



https://euobserver.com/justice/136398

Priority bit is the EU fudge, goes against free movement. Imagine if Spain said Spanish ppl must get offered jobs before Irish ppl.

Priority is borderline acceptable. Try getting a job in Denmark,Danes are always preferred.

Quotas (the original idea) aren't acceptable.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

Priority bit is the EU fudge, goes against free movement. Imagine if Spain said Spanish ppl must get offered jobs before Irish ppl.

The Swiss aren't in the EU. They can be biased towards their own citizens.

Spanish and Irish are EU citizens equal under EU law. The EU can be and is biased towards it's own citizens

sink

judeboy101 wrote: »

Priority bit is the EU fudge, goes against free movement. Imagine if Spain said Spanish ppl must get offered jobs before Irish ppl.

That's not correct. They can only give priority to Swiss based recruitment agencies. The nationality of the candidates which apply through these agencies can't be used as a selection criteria. So an Irish person apply through a recruitment agency in Zurich has the same opportunity as a Swiss national. Obviously less non residents will apply through Swiss agencies so this as a small effect on the selection bias but it's not much and is doesn't break freedom of movement rules. In the end the employer makes the decision and it's really up to them if they choose to preference Swiss nationals, but there is nothing in law that prevents them preferencing non nationals.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016295688035078146

VinLieger

If boris resigns, will theresa fall? And if she does who is there to replace her? please tell me mogg doesnt have the votes for a leadership run

Kermit.de.frog

Pondering what's best for Boris' career apparently

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1016292027892424705

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1016299308465950723

Leroy42

May surely would have seen all of this coming. TBH, they should have resigned on Friday, not signed up for it then walked away like this. I suspect that May actually expected a walk out on Friday, rumours are that they have a plan already in place to replace any one who resigns.

And this is another example to debunk the idea that May always had a soft Brexit in mind. Nobody in their right minds would opt for chaos like this. She went full in behind hard brexit, believing the stuff that DD, Gove, Boris etc were telling her about the easiest trade deal, they need us more than we need them etc. Then DD kept coming up totally empty handed. And the reality started to sink in. I think the December agreement debacle really hit her hard, she had believed her own hype and suddenly she realised she was not only not in charge against the EU, she wasn't even in charge at home.


When face to face with her they were all on board, then they write letters telling her she's no good! Yet we call people out for dumping their OH over a text!

Panrich

VinLieger wrote: »

If boris resigns, will theresa fall? And if she does who is there to replace her? please tell me mogg doesnt have the votes for a leadership run

Do you know, it might be better in the long term to lance the Brexit boil abruptly and a JRM led government would be the best way to galvanise the opposition in to some action. The stark reality of hard Brexit would quickly manifest if JRM got in to number 10 as companies beat a hasty retreat from the UK.

That might spark a backlash in favour of remaining closely allied and getting real in negotiations with the EU.

Would it be a general election or just a replacement if she went?

Imreoir2

Panrich wrote: »

Do you know, it might be better in the long term to lance the Brexit boil abruptly and a JRM led government would be the best way to galvanise the opposition in to some action. The stark reality of hard Brexit would quickly manifest if JRM got in to number 10 as companies beat a hasty retreat from the UK.

That might spark a backlash in favour of remaining closely allied and getting real in negotiations with the EU.

It's a bit late in the day for convulsions like that to bear any kind of fruit before the UK crashes out of the EU on March 29.

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

Would it be a general election or just a replacement if she went?

The UK are very much about voting for a PM, generally with a change of PM a GE wouldnt be far behind, however he might be able to get away with it thanks to the loud minority of brexiteers and brexit happy media who would be likely willing to give him a pass just to see the hard brexit they are all furiously **** over

Tropheus

Good article by Ian Dunt that sums up Davis' contribution very well.

There are few projects a lifelong eurosceptic could treasure more than managing Britain's withdrawal from the EU. David Davis was given the most coveted role in the history of his ideology and he flunked it, at every stage, with a series of unforced errors based on his own ignorance of the thing he ostensibly cared about.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/09/david-davis-in-the-end-there-was-nothing-behind-the-swagger

Kermit.de.frog

Boris Johnson missing apparently.

No one knows where he is.

Would he stay on to help "polish the turd" in his words?

Larbre34

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would it be a general election or just a replacement if she went?

Given the paper thin majority, requiring DUP, it would be very hard to argue a mandate for a new PM without a general election.

From a selfishly Irish nationalist point of view, any occurrence that dislodges the DUP from their current importance in Westminster can only be a good thing. Regardless of Brexit, NI needs and deserves an Executive.

briany

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boris Johnson missing apparently.

No one knows where he is.

Would he stay on to help "polish the turd" in his words?

He's locked himself in the bathroom, and claimed he's being pushed towards the window ledge due to failed negotiations with an intractable door.

Beechwoodspark

Boris loving the attention

Kermit.de.frog

German Europe minister:


https://twitter.com/MiRo_SPD/status/1016301264257372161


Rumors Boris has pulled out of engagements. Gone AWOL.

Source who claimed Boris is in COBRA now says they don’t know where he is.

That would imply he missed a Cobra meeting to deal with the death of a British national related to Russian nerve agent?

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1016316578672054273

Inquitus

Boris weighing up whether quitting furthers his career or not.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1016316578672054273

Professor Moriarty

If you think about it, Boris has no choice but to resign. If he doesn't he'll be seen as gutless despite all his hard man talk as he'll be kowtowing to May. He's gutless anyway but if he stays it will be blatantly obvious. The pickle for him is that Davis has jumped first so he'll just be following in his wake. Which makes him gutless for not jumping off his own bat.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you think about it, Boris has no choice but to resign. If he doesn't he'll be seen as gutless despite all his hard man talk as he'll be kowtowing to May. He's gutless anyway but if he stays it will be blatantly obvious. The pickle for him is that Davis has jumped first so he'll just be following in his wake. Which makes him gutless for not jumping off his own bat.

He has.

Inquitus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you think about it, Boris has no choice but to resign. If he doesn't he'll be seen as gutless despite all his hard man talk as he'll be kowtowing to May. He's gutless anyway but if he stays it will be blatantly obvious. The pickle for him is that Davis has jumped first so he'll just be following in his wake. Which makes him gutless for not jumping off his own bat.

He doesn't give a damn how it looks he will just do what he perceives is best for Boris!

VinLieger

Yup there he goes https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/boris-johnson-resigns-as-foreign-secretary-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

briany

Yeah, Boris has resigned according to Sky News.

Inquitus

briany wrote: »

Yeah, Boris has resigned according to Sky News.

Yep

Downing Street put out this statement.

This afternoon, the Prime Minister accepted the resignation of Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary. His replacement will be announced shortly. The Prime Minister thanks Boris for his work.

flatty

He's gone. To do what is the question. Jrm is the machiavelli here.

Kermit.de.frog

Boris Johnson has resigned.


Theresa May could be gone at any time herself.


Reports.