Brexit discussion thread IV

J Mysterio

Raab and Robbins were before the European Scrutiny Committee today.

ancapailldorcha

Partly Brexit related from Election Maps UK on Twitter. The did an analysis on how a GE would pan out if only 18-24's voted. Shockingly, there isn't a single blue seat.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1036900674573934592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1036900674573934592&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thepoke.co.uk%2F2018%2F09%2F06%2Fyoung-persons-electoral-map-britain-quite-something%2F

The Conservative party has a history of reinventing itself but future leaders, not to mention the current head seems to be dismally short of the mark while the party's share of the electorate and its membership is literally dying off.

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Shockingly, there isn't a single blue seat.

What shocks me more is the extent to which a political monoculture is already established in the minds of the young adults in England-and-Wales, by the time they cast their first vote. Students/young adults are traditionally left-leaning (we see the same thing here in France), but that map shows how poisonous FPTP is for anyone with a minority view or dissenting voice.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

What shocks me more is the extent to which a political monoculture is already established in the minds of the young adults in England-and-Wales, by the time they cast their first vote. Students/young adults are traditionally left-leaning (we see the same thing here in France), but that map shows how poisonous FPTP is for anyone with a minority view or dissenting voice.

Well, you've actually got three factors working together here. First, younger voters traditional tend to be more left-wing, as you note. Secondly, the Tory party has pushed, and continues to push, policies which have a disproportionate adverse affect on younger voters (fees, housing) or which are disproportionately unpopular with younger voters (Brexit). And, third, the crapulous electoral system.

And the electoral system is itself a double-whammy. Not only does it under-represent the Tories here (12% support but zero seats) but it over-represents them in real life (42% of the votes but 49% of the seats. So their apparent fall
is magnified.

The message here is that Tory support among the 18-24 demographic is on the floor. It's not that much of surprise really. The question is, will the Tories bank on the 18-24 year olds moving rightwards as they enter the world of jobs, taxpaying and childrearing? Or will the Tories be dragged leftwards? (Or will they just die on their arses?)

VinLieger

Peregrinus wrote: »

The question is, will the Tories bank on the 18-24 year olds moving rightwards as they enter the world of jobs, taxpaying and childrearing? Or will the Tories be dragged leftwards? (Or will they just die on their arses?)

Considering how badly they've been screwed i can't see that hard a right turn happening, they wont be making anywhere near the same money by their 30's/40's that their parents were which caused them to make a right turn and they know its a direct result of tory policies.

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Partly Brexit related from Election Maps UK on Twitter. The did an analysis on how a GE would pan out if only 18-24's voted. Shockingly, there isn't a single blue seat.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1036900674573934592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1036900674573934592&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thepoke.co.uk%2F2018%2F09%2F06%2Fyoung-persons-electoral-map-britain-quite-something%2F

The Conservative party has a history of reinventing itself but future leaders, not to mention the current head seems to be dismally short of the mark while the party's share of the electorate and its membership is literally dying off.

Here is more maps showing the different age groups and how a government will look, not just the 1-24 age group.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1037273833462542336

As we can see here once you get to the over 50's the majority vote for the Conservatives. The problem for Labour is getting the youth vote out. If they are able to do this then they will always win.

flatty

Peregrinus wrote: »

CelticRambler wrote: »

What shocks me more is the extent to which a political monoculture is already established in the minds of the young adults in England-and-Wales, by the time they cast their first vote. Students/young adults are traditionally left-leaning (we see the same thing here in France), but that map shows how poisonous FPTP is for anyone with a minority view or dissenting voice.

Well, you've actually got three factors working together here. First, younger voters traditional tend to be more left-wing, as you note. Secondly, the Tory party has pushed, and continues to push, policies which have a disproportionate adverse affect on younger voters (fees, housing) or which are disproportionately unpopular with younger voters (Brexit). And, third, the crapulous electoral system.

And the electoral system is itself a double-whammy. Not only does it under-represent the Tories here (12% support but zero seats) but it over-represents them in real life (42% of the votes but 49% of the seats. So their apparent fall
is magnified.

The message here is that Tory support among the 18-24 demographic is on the floor. It's not that much of surprise really. The question is, will the Tories bank on the 18-24 year olds moving rightwards as they enter the world of jobs, taxpaying and childrearing? Or will the Tories be dragged leftwards? (Or will they just die on their arses?)

I doubt, honestly, that they think that far ahead.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

What shocks me more is the extent to which a political monoculture is already established in the minds of the young adults in England-and-Wales, by the time they cast their first vote. Students/young adults are traditionally left-leaning (we see the same thing here in France), but that map shows how poisonous FPTP is for anyone with a minority view or dissenting voice.

When I was involved with the Green party, they owed their single MP Caroline Lucas to the particularly zealous brand of leftism that is characteristic of Brighton.

Conservative clubs and the like do exist for younger people. Young Conservatives aren't unicorns. The problem is that selling the status quo to the next generation is a tough job and that's basically what Conservatism is. It's a contract between the Conservative/Whig elite and the public whereby the elite promise to ensure that assets are protected in return for a degree of tolerance for tough measures for the lower classes of society and rent seeking. The EU referendum was in effect a shredding of this contract.

I found the 25-49 age group particularly interesting as this is when people usually settle down, buy homes and start families. Many people grew up in a family home with one breadwinner. Now, one-bedroom flats in London rarely go for less than a quarter of a million pounds plus leasehold.

LuckyLloyd

demfad wrote: »

Just to clarity: There was two amendments.
1: No hard border on the Island of Ireland
2: No Customs border in the Irish sea

If there is a no-deal situation then option 1 will have to be repealed.
The UK in this situation must have an external border in Ireland to check Country of Origin, apply tarrifs and quotas. If it doesn't it plunges into a situation where it does not receive favourable WTO rates from other countries. So maximum tariffs on all products.

The Commons would have to vote on this which would bring them face to face with the calamatous choice. That's hopeful and the addition of this amendment might be smart strategy.


I will say the following knowing that some people might consider it a conspiracy theory.

Russia has a massive interest in Brexit (max hardness) being followed through.
I won't go into it here but they have interfered in your democracy in a way which will become clearer (hopefully) in time.
The Russians hacked loads of cyber weapons and cyber nasties from the NSA a few years ago. One of Russia's test attacks in Ukraine (NotPetya) took out a fifth of the world's commercial marine fleet and it was only supposed to target a Ukraine Govt department.
If the UK exits with no-deal it is an historically vulnerable position not just in terms of trade but in terms of security. In the chaos of a no deal how long would UK systems last if they were hit with a major cyber attack?

We are actually in the midst of the first world information and cyber war. It beggars belief that this has not being discussed amongst the no deal talk.

You've been on this for years and the gradual unwinding of the illegality around the Trump / Brexit campaigns and other scandals is proving out your point slowly over time. You don't get enough credit for your posting on these issues imo.

Leaving that aside, the reason this is talked about sparingly is not just that it comes across as a conspiracy theory as you note, but worse - a conspiracy theory where the people who might report on it or might change their position if they understood it are the dupes. The suggestion to white Republicans that a Russian asset is now in the Whitehouse would suggest their entire nationalism has been compromised and turned against them. The implications are massive. It would suggest the same thing for Britain but in that case its almost worse - as there is no single buffoon like Trump to pin it all upon when it becomes revealed in full.

This disruption of domestic politics is proving so successful because it stokes emotive politics in the very areas that it undermines: nationalism, security, democracy, freedom. To admit that you've succumbed is tantamount for many to admitting that they are / were stupid. This is a powerful winning concoction for those with nefarious intent.

listermint

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You've been on this for years and the gradual unwinding of the illegality around the Trump / Brexit campaigns and other scandals is proving out your point slowly over time. You don't get enough credit for your posting on these issues imo.

Leaving that aside, the reason this is talked about sparingly is not just that it comes across as a conspiracy theory as you note, but worse - a conspiracy theory where the people who might report on it or might change their position if they understood it are the dupes. The suggestion to white Republicans that a Russian asset is now in the Whitehouse would suggest their entire nationalism has been compromised and turned against them. The implications are massive. It would suggest the same thing for Britain but in that case its almost worse - as there is no single buffoon like Trump to pin it all upon when it becomes revealed in full.

This disruption of domestic politics is proving so successful because it stokes emotive politics in the very areas that it undermines: nationalism, security, democracy, freedom. To admit that you've succumbed is tantamount for many to admitting that they are / were stupid. This is a powerful winning concoction for those with nefarious intent.

Was thinking on this, this morning on my commute whilst listening to the NY Daily Podcast.


No one wants to feel Stupid. No one. And to be taken in by snakeoil salesmen you are never going to admin that they duped you. You might double down on it. Much of the support we see for various policies are in the 'Im not stupid' I have not been duped' 'your wrong' phase.

And this wont be changed as to do that would be for individuals to admin their own failings or expose their own stupidity. Vulnerable people are reluctant to do that.

trellheim

I'm sorry you aint gonna tell me that Brexit is a fantasy or that a lot of people don't want it ; propaganda triumph for sure yes, and a disaster for many of us looking on but there's been eurosceptics since forever

listermint

trellheim wrote: »

I'm sorry you aint gonna tell me that Brexit is a fantasy or that a lot of people don't want it ; propaganda triumph for sure yes, and a disaster for many of us looking on but there's been eurosceptics since forever

Who said that,

specifically ?

Mezcita

J Mysterio wrote: »

Raab and Robbins were before the European Scrutiny Committee today.

Worth a listen if any of you have trouble sleeping.

No tricky bits up until the 1.20.20 mark when Stephen Kinnock brings the story that Chequers is "Dead in the water" according to Barnier.

In fairness to Raab he's a lot more polished than David Davies was. But the interesting thing is that they appear to genuinely believe that the EU will bend to the UK's demands. That this is a negotiation and that concessions will be made on both sides. They simply don't get it even when Barnier is spelling it out to them.

Full steam ahead on no deal.

prawnsambo

If a yellow-hammer comes and hammers on your house, it's a sign that some of your family are going to die.

The photograph accompanying that tweet was snapped of Treasury minister John Glen as he was exiting the cabinet office this morning, The gist of the document is about rail and aviation contingencies after a no-deal brexit and appears to be concerned with the financial robustness of firms that are integral to the brexit contingncy plans. The CCS held a two day meeting last week. Sh1t is getting very real.

J Mysterio

Mezcita wrote: »

Worth a listen if any of you have trouble sleeping.

No tricky bits up until the 1.20.20 mark when Stephen Kinnock brings the story that Chequers is "Dead in the water" according to Barnier.

In fairness to Raab he's a lot more polished than David Davies was. But the interesting thing is that they appear to genuinely believe that the EU will bend to the UK's demands. That this is a negotiation and that concessions will be made on both sides. They simply don't get it even when Barnier is spelling it out to them.

Full steam ahead on no deal.

I was literally just coming here to make this same point. I watched about an hour of this yesterday and was wrapping it today.

It seems Raab is sticking to Chequers under this committee's scrutiny just as May stuck to Chequers at PMQ's yesterday. Obviously he is following May's direction but it is dead. Dead. in. the. water.

It's true also that Raab is a decent, affable sort of chap where Davis was an arrogant, boorish type.

Spook_ie

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is more maps showing the different age groups and how a government will look, not just the 1-24 age group.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1037273833462542336

As we can see here once you get to the over 50's the majority vote for the Conservatives. The problem for Labour is getting the youth vote out. If they are able to do this then they will always win.

Does that age correlation attach itself to things like the 1978/79 Winter Strikes, I would have been in my early twenties then and my father ( up until then a staunch labour supporter ) never voted labour again, and likewise I have never and will never vote labour since then.

LuckyLloyd

trellheim wrote: »

I'm sorry you aint gonna tell me that Brexit is a fantasy or that a lot of people don't want it ; propaganda triumph for sure yes, and a disaster for many of us looking on but there's been eurosceptics since forever

There's been euroscepticism forever, but the hammer was put down leading up to the referendum. There's always been the weight of a manipulative right wing press in the UK, but that pressure was amplified by new techniques of voter persuasion via social media, etc.

LuckyLloyd

Spook_ie wrote: »

Does that age correlation attach itself to things like the 1978/79 Winter Strikes, I would have been in my early twenties then and my father ( up until then a staunch labour supporter ) never voted labour again, and likewise I have never and will never vote labour since then.

Don't really see what the Labour of 1978 / 79 had to do with the Labour of 1995 - 2010 now tbh (and I could extend that either side, but I'll go with the very safe neo liberal nadir of the party).

Havockk

Peregrinus wrote: »

The message here is that Tory support among the 18-24 demographic is on the floor. It's not that much of surprise really. The question is, will the Tories bank on the 18-24 year olds moving rightwards as they enter the world of jobs, taxpaying and childrearing? Or will the Tories be dragged leftwards? (Or will they just die on their arses?)

Way back though, many of those younger voters would get into decent well paying lifetime jobs, become comfortable, politically complacent. Not anymore, they will be lucky to get a zero hour gig.

Spook_ie

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Don't really see what the Labour of 1978 / 79 had to do with the Labour of 1995 - 2010 now tbh (and I could extend that either side, but I'll go with the very safe neo liberal nadir of the party).

Probably nothing but I'd never consider voting labour ever because of the late 70s, probably akin to leopards and spots

Christy42

listermint wrote: »

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You've been on this for years and the gradual unwinding of the illegality around the Trump / Brexit campaigns and other scandals is proving out your point slowly over time. You don't get enough credit for your posting on these issues imo.

Leaving that aside, the reason this is talked about sparingly is not just that it comes across as a conspiracy theory as you note, but worse - a conspiracy theory where the people who might report on it or might change their position if they understood it are the dupes. The suggestion to white Republicans that a Russian asset is now in the Whitehouse would suggest their entire nationalism has been compromised and turned against them. The implications are massive. It would suggest the same thing for Britain but in that case its almost worse - as there is no single buffoon like Trump to pin it all upon when it becomes revealed in full.

This disruption of domestic politics is proving so successful because it stokes emotive politics in the very areas that it undermines: nationalism, security, democracy, freedom. To admit that you've succumbed is tantamount for many to admitting that they are / were stupid. This is a powerful winning concoction for those with nefarious intent.

Was thinking on this, this morning on my commute whilst listening to the NY Daily Podcast.


No one wants to feel Stupid. No one. And to be taken in by snakeoil salesmen you are never going to admin that they duped you. You might double down on it. Much of the support we see for various policies are in the 'Im not stupid' I have not been duped' 'your wrong' phase.

And this wont be changed as to do that would be for individuals to admin their own failings or expose their own stupidity. Vulnerable people are reluctant to do that.

Part of the sunk cost phenomenon. It has been widely observed on scams.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment

An Ciarraioch

Two contrasting stories on the Border tonight - the Guardian take suggests goods coming from the Continent to Ireland would be checked and sealed in Calais before their passage through UK ports:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/06/ireland-hopes-side-deal-with-eu-could-allow-it-friction-free-trade-across-border

However, the UK Independent states that London isn't offering any new proposals:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brexit-no-deal-uk-likely-northern-ireland-border-eu-latest-updates-a8526306.html

Infini

prawnsambo wrote: »

If a yellow-hammer comes and hammers on your house, it's a sign that some of your family are going to die.

The photograph accompanying that tweet was snapped of Treasury minister John Glen as he was exiting the cabinet office this morning, The gist of the document is about rail and aviation contingencies after a no-deal brexit and appears to be concerned with the financial robustness of firms that are integral to the brexit contingncy plans. The CCS held a two day meeting last week. Sh1t is getting very real.

It goes beyond simple shít now at this point, this would probably mean the Brit's KNOW that no deal is very likely or near certain at this point and they're either too deluded into thinking the EU will buckle, too cowardly to admit they're wrong about this whole thing and unwilling to put country before politics and change course or simply too arrogant to admit they are plain wrong about this.

From the uk indo as well

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brexit-no-deal-uk-likely-northern-ireland-border-eu-latest-updates-a8526306.html

Truthfully I think a temporary Hard Border is unavoidable right now. I say temporary because the minute a crashout brexit happen's the place will suffer Depression level conditions to the point Unification will be the only workable way out and solution for the North. The only problem issue with UI will be some of the die hards from the Orange Order and the Loyalist area's will they resort to needless violence or will they accept times have changed and living in the past ain't gonna get them anywhere.

(Fun side note: Star Trek once predicted Irish Reunification for 2024 makes me wonder if they'd eerily called the right year)

I honestly think talk's need to break down sooner rather than later though because realistically the ONLY chance Britain has of avoiding this catastrophe of Epically Stupid proportions is a 2nd referendum. There is pressure for it but I think the certain threat of No Deal is needed to basically force the political establishment over there to face the hard reality that if they proceed with this stupidity they won't ever come back from it the same, Irish Reunification and Scottish Independence is a matter of when not if under this scenario and the only hope they have of avoiding this is to go back to the people. The Brexiteers are terrified of a 2nd vote because they KNOW this time they'll lose and that's why they're so shrill about it.

First Up

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Two contrasting stories on the Border tonight - the Guardian take suggests goods coming from the Continent to Ireland would be checked and sealed in Calais before their passage through UK ports:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/06/ireland-hopes-side-deal-with-eu-could-allow-it-friction-free-trade-across-border

However, the UK Independent states that London isn't offering any new proposals:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brexit-no-deal-uk-likely-northern-ireland-border-eu-latest-updates-a8526306.html

That doesn't really need a "special deal". A sealed container can transit through the UK to or from Ireland without customs checks.

It doesn't solve how to get past the queues at UK ports for the stuff that does need customs checks.

listermint

First Up wrote: »

That doesn't really need a "special deal". A sealed container can transit through the UK to or from Ireland without customs checks.

It doesn't solve how to get past the queues at UK ports for the stuff that does need customs checks.

It does of course. Rosslare and cork. Throw money at them adjust the fit supply chains and exclude the UK

J Mysterio

Infini wrote: »

(Fun side note: Star Trek once predicted Irish Reunification for 2024 makes me wonder if they'd eerily called the right year)

Haha, yeah, thats class. Totally forgot about that, it is quite eerie.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

That doesn't really need a "special deal". A sealed container can transit through the UK to or from Ireland without customs checks.

It doesn't solve how to get past the queues at UK ports for the stuff that does need customs checks.

That struck me as odd when I read it. The plan from the EU is to redirect all freight that would normally have used the landbridge by sea to Holland and Belgium. That plan is in the consultation phase right now. The thinking is that all the French ports will be clogged with British freight. French, obviously are not pleased.

Meanwhile iin Brexitopia, 15 miles of the hard shoulder on the M20 to Dover is being strengthened. Due to be completed by February.

First Up

listermint wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

That doesn't really need a "special deal". A sealed container can transit through the UK to or from Ireland without customs checks.

It doesn't solve how to get past the queues at UK ports for the stuff that does need customs checks.

It does of course. Rosslare and cork. Throw money at them adjust the fit supply chains and exclude the UK

Yes but that's a different solution to sealing containers for transit through the UK.

First Up

prawnsambo wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

That doesn't really need a "special deal". A sealed container can transit through the UK to or from Ireland without customs checks.

It doesn't solve how to get past the queues at UK ports for the stuff that does need customs checks.

That struck me as odd when I read it. The plan from the EU is to redirect all freight that would normally have used the landbridge by sea to Holland and Belgium. That plan is in the consultation phase right now. The thinking is that all the French ports will be clogged with British freight. French, obviously are not pleased.

Meanwhile iin Brexitopia, 15 miles of the hard shoulder on the M20 to Dover is being strengthened. Due to be completed by February.

The EU won't be "re-directing" traffic but it will be (and already is) helping to increase direct links between Ireland and the continent.

listermint

First Up wrote: »

Yes but that's a different solution to sealing containers for transit through the UK.

Obviously.it has to be.

We won't get priority over there over UK bound freight.

We need to accept that. Why would they give us priority. They'll be in the attack at that point