Brexit discussion thread IV

Imreoir2

"Your proposal does not seem workable to us, basically". - Michel Barnier.

That is what the British people should have said back in the 2016 referendum.

Panrich

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Here: http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/exiting-the-european-union-committee/the-progress-of-the-uks-negotiations-on-eu-withdrawal/oral/88890.pdf

Interesting that in a no deal scenario, there will be no 'mini deals' on issues like medicine and aviation and that is surely a huge stick to hold over the UK.

"Now if there is a no deal there is no more discussion. There is no more negotiation. It is over and each side will take its own unilateral contingency measures, and we will take them in such areas as aviation, but this does not mean minideals in the case of a no deal.
We want a deal. We want an overall agreement; otherwise each will take their own contingency measures on their own side. That is why I want an agreement. I know full well, the worst scenario is indeed the no-deal scenario."

Leroy42

When the UK, and the likes of JRM. talk of a No deal, they don't actually mean totally no deal. As the papers produced by Raab last week showed, a no deal for the UK really means only no deal in terms of NI and CU/SM and settlement. They fully expect to make the deals necessary to keep all the other stuff (like aviation) running.

I also think that they think that the EU will agree to these as well regardless of the negotiations, and in fact have built that into the leverage they can use to get a deal.

Imreoir2

Panrich wrote: »

Interesting that in a no deal scenario, there will be no 'mini deals' on issues like medicine and aviation and that is surely a huge stick to hold over the UK.

"Now if there is a no deal there is no more discussion. There is no more negotiation. It is over and each side will take its own unilateral contingency measures, and we will take them in such areas as aviation, but this does not mean minideals in the case of a no deal.
We want a deal. We want an overall agreement; otherwise each will take their own contingency measures on their own side. That is why I want an agreement. I know full well, the worst scenario is indeed the no-deal scenario."

The concept of a no-deal deal, or minideals has been floated by Brexiteers to coax people to go down a no-deal path. I understand why Barnier would rule out any form of deal, or minideal in a no withdrawl treaty scenario, but if no-deal actually happens then I don't think they can be ruled out entirely. The damage from an indefinate grounding of flights from the UK would presumably be a major issue for Member States and there are probably other issues such as allowing for adequate trade in medicines both ways, that would demand flexibility from the EU as it would clearly be in the EUs interest to do so. I don't think such emergency measures will ever amount to anything more than the barest of bones to make life bearable for the EU. We must ensure that they never amount to the kind of future relationship with the EU that the UK needs without concession of the backstop up front.

I can't imagine that we will see any scenario post no-deal Brexit, where the backstop, the settlement of UK liabilities to the EU, and several other issues, are not the price for any kind of deal other than some limited emergency measures, but I still think we can expect that there will be room for some flexibility in a no-deal scenario.

Enzokk

If you want to get a flavour of the state of mind of Brexiteers read the replies to this tweet. It has gone very quickly from how the UK will be no worse off with Brexit or how access to the single market will not be affected at all to the people knew what they voted for and they want to leave right now.

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1037583416697479168

If you listen to the interview with Ann Widdicombe and see the brains in charge of the UK at the moment we should be prepared for a no deal Brexit and the consequences that comes with that.

I am not sure if others have seen this, but this is the actual Secretary for State for Northern Ireland.

“I freely admit,” Karen freely admitted, “that when I started this job, I didn’t understand some of the deep-seated and deep-rooted issues that there are in Northern Ireland. I didn’t understand things like when elections are fought, for example, in Northern Ireland – people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice versa.”

Karen Bradley routs her rival imbeciles with Ladybird guide to Northern Ireland

demfad

Longish post:

This a Bloomberg report from June:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

Just four minutes after the polls had closed, and with meaningful vote counts still more than two hours away, Sky had aired a concession from the world’s most prominent Brexit backer, buttressed by data from YouGov. In a few hours these “scoops” would prove spectacularly wrong, but in the meantime they spawned worldwide headlines, including from Bloomberg News and virtually everyone else. This one, which ran atop the U.K.’s leading news site, the Mail Online, was typical. Referring to Farage's UK Independence Party, it read:

BREAKING NEWS: UKIP leader Nigel Farage sensationally concedes DEFEAT within seconds of voting closing as final poll gives Remain the edge 52% – 48% in historic EU referendum

The news pushed the U.K.’s currency up—herding investors toward a cliff hours ahead of one of the largest crashes for any major currency since the birth of the modern global financial system. Trillions of dollars in asset values would be wiped off the books, but not just yet.

At 10:52 p.m., the pound rose above $1.50 and reached its highest mark in six months. A few minutes later, Ed Conway, the Sky News economics editor, appeared before a giant screen showing the spike. The pound had been tracking polls for months, Conway explained. Whether they were on couches in London or at trading desks in Chicago, people watching Sky or reading headlines sparked by its coverage had every reason to think Remain would prevail. But not quite everyone.

Behind the scenes, a small group of people had a secret—and billions of dollars were at stake. Hedge funds aiming to win big from trades that day had hired YouGov and at least five other polling companies, including Farage's favorite pollster.

Farage conceded defeat causing the pound to rise to it's highest level in 6 months knowing that his side had actually won as he was privy to the survation poll saying it was 52:48 leave.

Farage favourite pollster crops up in yesterdays article indicating Farage et al might actually become accountable for this behaviour.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations

A polling firm (survation) linked to Brexit champion Nigel Farage faces scrutiny over a short-lived company that its owner used to do political work for Farage’s party and the 12 million-pound ($15.5 million) campaign he fronted to leave the European Union, according to records and interviews.
....
The polling firm also has surfaced in two other investigations related to UKIP and the campaign to leave the EU, according to records and interviews. The revelations place the pollster squarely into the controversy surrounding Farage, the former UKIP leader, and Arron Banks, a businessman who financed Farage’s Brexit campaign, which was called Leave.EU. Survation’s founder, Damian Lyons Lowe, worked as Farage’s pollster and served as a key adviser.
...
U.K. pollsters have faced calls for inquiries and regulation since Bloomberg reported in June that many had privately worked for hedge funds betting millions on the outcome of the 2016 EU referendum. Survation conducted an exit poll for hedge funds that successfully called the vote--and Farage told Bloomberg earlier this year that Lyons Lowe shared its results with him after the polls closed, but long before official tallies came in. During that time, Farage shocked the world by conceding defeat, and the pound’s value spiked in currency markets before dropping precipitously as the Leave victory became clear.
.....
Survation, acting through an entity called “Constituency Polling Ltd.,” embedded and managed political operatives, primarily on behalf of Leave.EU, in a call center run out of the Bristol offices of Banks’s company, Eldon Insurance, according to people involved, including Banks.
...
The probe also includes allegations Cambridge Analytica was “paid for work on UKIP data in 2015” and that Leave.EU was involved in covering the costs, the agency said. Lyons Lowe’s operations were major sources of data for UKIP that year, according to people involved. The agency hasn’t revealed specifically which UKIP data it’s focused on.

This would seem to put Farage potentially in serious legal jeopardy.
The article states also that Banks was hiring Insurance temps for political ends without declaring. Banks is already in trouble for many undeclared receipts etc for Brexit activities made on Eldon insurance headed paper, presumably disguised as Insurance activities
.
Cambridge Analytica wont go away. Even though a CA director Britany Kaiser was at the Leave.EU launch the campaign later said that Robert Mercer donated services free charge becuase of his friendship to Farage. When this had to be declared as a benefit in kind they claimed that no work was done at all. The information commisioner doesn't believe this.
And remember the £12m that Banks used to fund all this is not explained and under investigation amid revelations of many meetings with the Russian ambassador to the UK where he was offered 'deals' in Russian goldmines.
Cambridge Analytica is a sister firm of AIQ (Robert Mercer owns its intellectual property). AIQ is the firm that offical Vote leave paid almost £4 million to: well over half it's allowance. Infact all other campaigns including the DUP paid monies to AIQ: Vote Leave and BeLeave got pinged for criminal coordination.

Mercers mass propaganda machine which coordinates with Russian propaganda to influence these big contests to result in far right outcomes makes a killing from the market fluctuations. Disaster capitalists (like Legatum) swarm in to make sure what remains of the old capitalist system gets gobbled up.
This had to happen before the otherwise inevitable green sustainability global economics struck a fatal blow to inequality. The dodgiest corporations don't mind because as Mussolini said you shouldn't be able to seperate true corporatism from fascism with a cigarette paper.
A relatively tiny number of people have manipulated the system and accelerated this outcome.

Enzokk

demfad wrote: »

Longish post:

This a Bloomberg report from June:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash



Farage conceded defeat causing the pound to rise to it's highest level in 6 months knowing that his side had actually won as he was privy to the survation poll saying it was 52:48 leave.

Farage favourite pollster crops up in yesterdays article indicating Farage et al might actually become accountable for this behaviour.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations



This would seem to put Farage potentially in serious legal jeopardy.
The article states also that Banks was hiring temps for political ends. Banks is already in trouble for many undeclared receipts etc for Brexit activities mad eon Eldon insurance headed paper.
Cambridge Analytica wont go away. Even though a CA director Britany Kaiser was at the Leave.EU launch the campaign later said that Robert Mercer donated services free charge becuase of his friendship to Farage. When this had to be declared as a benefit in kind they claimed that no work was done at all. The information commisioner doesn't believe this.
And remember the £12m that Banks used to fund all this is not explained and under investigation amid revelations of many meetings with the Russian ambassador to the UK where he was offered 'deals' in Russian goldmines.
Cambridge Analytica is a sister firm of AIQ (Robert Mercer owns its intellectual property). AIQ is the firm that offical Vote leave paid almost £4 million to: well over half it's allowance. Infact all other campaigns including the DUP paid monies to AIQ: Vote Leave and BeLeave got pinged for criminal coordination.

Mercers mass propaganda machine which coordinates with Russian propaganda to influence these big contests to result in far right outcomes makes a killing from the market fluctuations. Disaster capitalists (like Legatum) swarm in to make sure what remains of the old capitalist system gets gobbled up.
This had to happen before the otherwise inevitable green sustainability global economics struck a fatal blow to inequality. The dodgiest corporations don't mind because as Mussolini said you shouldn't be able to seperate true corporatism from fascism with a cigarette paper.
A relatively tiny number of people have manipulated the system and accelerated this outcome.

It is sickening that this is open knowledge and we see very little action on it. People made a lot of money on the night and you can bet those same people have their bets on chaos in April 2019. I expect as others have said before that Nigel will surface right before it all kicks off to say that had he been in charge it would have been all different and much better for all involved. He ran at the first sign of trouble (results day) and will be back among the ashes of peoples lives to sell them some more dreams. And he isn't even the worst of the lot.

David Davis is going to a rally about Brexit, to ensure that Brexit is delivered. He was in charge for the last 2 years and he will be going to a rally to complain about how it is going? He is going to complain about the work he did for the last 2 years.

Kermit.de.frog

According to the released Barnier transcript the EU is still saying checks must be on the Irish sea using various means.

He has also done some epic trolling implying about how technology will help at UK ports and on vessels!

The tech savvy Brexiteers can hardly argue with that!

Rhineshark

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

According to the released Barnier transcript the EU is still saying checks must be on the Irish sea using various means.

He has also done some epic trolling implying about how technology will help at UK ports and on vessels!

The tech savvy Brexiteers can hardly argue with that!

At this point, I really can't blame him! After two years of dealing with various iterations of this lot, anyone would be driven to either snark or drink.

Nody

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The concept of a no-deal deal, or minideals has been floated by Brexiteers to coax people to go down a no-deal path. I understand why Barnier would rule out any form of deal, or minideal in a no withdrawl treaty scenario, but if no-deal actually happens then I don't think they can be ruled out entirely. The damage from an indefinate grounding of flights from the UK would presumably be a major issue for Member States and there are probably other issues such as allowing for adequate trade in medicines both ways, that would demand flexibility from the EU as it would clearly be in the EUs interest to do so.

Flights are not grounded indefiniate; they are however grounded for several months until EU can confirm their recognition. Medicine certification can be temporarily granted into EU but nothing says EU has to give two hoots about UK's oppinion on the matter or their issues with imports. A company such as Astra Zenica will also have to think twice how they are going to explain to their shareholders how they prioritizied certification in UK vs. EU for a new product going on the market; the CEO doing that will be looking for a new job soon there after.

I don't think such emergency measures will ever amount to anything more than the barest of bones to make life bearable for the EU. We must ensure that they never amount to the kind of future relationship with the EU that the UK needs without concession of the backstop up front.

EU has already outlined multiple policies on how it will handle such exceptions but they are not announced with big fan faires and they are without exception to make things work for EU based companies only. Those are not deals as EU does not need UK's permission on them and they are all going to be short term exceptions to the normal rules (for example I could see an exception allowing EU airlines flying out their planes once from British airspace for example and they already published rules on how certain EU certifications done in the UK will be allowed to be moved to the continent which is not allowed currently).

I can't imagine that we will see any scenario post no-deal Brexit, where the backstop, the settlement of UK liabilities to the EU, and several other issues, are not the price for any kind of deal other than some limited emergency measures, but I still think we can expect that there will be room for some flexibility in a no-deal scenario.

No that's the thing; in case of an all out no deal EU will act only to protect EU and not the UK in any shape or form. They will not cut a deal with the UK on things because it will help UK and will happily stand aside and see them crash while they execute a set of emergency rules for EU companies to cope with it. That's the part UK Brexiteers don't get; EU has no qualms about letting UK burn with EU having a full bladder and still not pissing in their general direction.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. First Up apparently hadn't read it.

But it still begs the question as to what the Revenue official was talking about. Surely they know about this. And British ports will be absolutely FUBAR. Like they're preparing for 15 miles of freight tailbacks to Dover. That's over a thousand artics.

That's only a thousand artics.

Actually it's 3,000 trucks they can stack on the motorways

To put that in perspective

Honda alone need 350 trucks a day to keep car production going.


Dover gets 4.2 million trucks a year.

Every additional minute of checks adds 10 miles to queues.

Capt'n Midnight

The distractions continue

Boris Johnson and wife Marina Wheeler to get divorced
This isn't going to help get him into No. 10.

Sir Vince Cable will stand down as Lib Dem leader "once Brexit is resolved or stopped"- and wants non-party members to vote for his replacement.
So much for having a third option.

Capt'n Midnight

Interesting news for an independent Scotland. I don't know what the Scottish share of UK service exports is though. While Scotland wouldn't be able to join the EU yet, the Norway Deal would tick most of the boxes of all sides as an interim deal.


Scottish goods exports rise faster than rest of UK

Meanwhile, exports of oil and gas rose year-on-year by 29% to £7bn.

As a result, Scotland was the only part of Great Britain to show a surplus of goods exports over goods imports.

With its extensive trade across the Irish border, Northern Ireland also had a surplus.

El Weirdo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The distractions continue

Boris Johnson and wife Marina Wheeler to get divorced
This isn't going to help get him into No. 10.

There was a piece on the Today programme on BBCR4 this morning.

The fact that *this* might be what scuppers his ambitions of becoming PM is crazy.

UsedToWait

El Weirdo wrote: »

There was a piece on the Today programme on BBCR4 this morning.

The fact that *this* might be what scuppers his ambitions of becoming PM is crazy.

C4 News' take on it last night was that this was him clearing the decks for a leadership push - apparently Boris had been unfaithful (and not for the first time), so wanted to get ahead of the story..

Rhineshark

Johnson's leaving it very late to make a run, unless he's planning to run on a disastrous exit in March. And just hopes everyone will now believe him when he points to the shambles and days something along the lines of that *his* no-deal stick-it-to-the-Europeans decision would have resulted in sunny uplands all over the place rather than the exact same situation. But now that this is done, Boris will save them from May's mess (with the difficult political bit out of the way).

Dunno, anyone read anything less cynical about his efforts? He is being veeery slooow about actually moving rather than just rumbling.

cml387

There was a report on BBC Today programme this morning that Monday's launch of the Brexiteer's "Alternative to Chequers" plan has been postponed and the reason is that it doesn't have Boris's blessing.

I haven't been able to find any other story on this, but it looks like not only can the Tories not agree among themselves, neither can the Brexiteers.

Although that should come as no surprise if you read up on the "No" campaign

ArmaniJeanss

cml387 wrote: »

There was a report on BBC Today programme this morning that Monday's launch of the Brexiteer's "Alternative to Chequers" plan has been postponed and the reason is that it doesn't have Boris's blessing.

I haven't been able to find any other story on this, but it looks like not only can the Tories not agree among themselves, neither can the Brexiteers.

In the Times.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eurosceptics-shelve-their-rival-brexit-blueprint-5rxnblpql?shareToken=965e31071495f1660df8850e4cc0b395

Conservative Eurosceptics have abandoned their plan to publish an alternative Chequers blueprint.
Tory members of the European Research Group had been due to put their names to a single document setting out their own proposals for a limited Brexit deal with the European Union.
The plan was shelved amid divisions over strategy and fears among some MPs that it would provide ammunition for Downing Street and pro-European groups to attack their proposals.
The group is instead planning a programme of events, starting with a speech on Wednesday by David Davis, the former Brexit secretary.
………………..
It was due to advocate abandoning Chequers in favour of trying to negotiate a free-trade agreement with the EU along the lines agreed with Canada. The paper is understood to have made clear that if the EU was not prepared to soften its red lines on Ireland, or proposed less favourable terms than Canada, then the UK would leave without a deal. A concern among some MPs was understood to have been the position of Boris Johnson. He had made clear that he did not intend publicly to endorse the plan.
………………….

Nody

Remember how some people here claimed the airplanes would never be grounded? Well the UK government have now been forced to admit it's true...

At stake are more than 750 deals with at least 168 non-EU countries – enjoyed because of EU membership – stretching far beyond trade to airline services, nuclear parts, fisheries, agriculture and data sharing.

Aerospace chiefs have already warned that planes with UK-made parts could be grounded if they lose their recognised safety certificates, for example.

Now the government has confirmed that none of the 168-odd countries have given “clear agreement” to roll over any deals and that there is no date set for asking them to do so.

The UK has agreed that the EU will decide when the process can begin – and Brussels is expected to give the go-ahead only when Theresa May signs a withdrawal agreement.

Asked to reveal the number of countries which had promised to roll over agreements, the Department for International Trade (DIT) said it “does not hold any information relevant to your request”.

And that great 4 billion deal in Africa? Well...

the small print acknowledged the agreement was not “legally binding” and was “without prejudice” to any changes those countries might demand before it was.

So that's 4 billion to maybe get the same deal as now if they don't decide to sucker punch the UK for more benefits before signing. May has to be the most brilliant negotiatior for the other side who's ever worked for the UK.

And to put things in perspective; this is the current EU trade deal status as per General Secretariat of the Council where white means no deal at all:


1st of April all of that turns white for the UK while EU only whites out UK...

prawnsambo

Nody wrote: »

And that great 4 billion deal in Africa? Well...
So that's 4 billion to maybe get the same deal as now if they don't decide to sucker punch the UK for more benefits before signing. May has to be the most brilliant negotiatior for the other side who's ever worked for the UK.

I think the best description I've heard of what happens the UK on 30th March if they exit without a deal was "the sharks will smell blood in the water".

Evd-Burner

Nody wrote: »

Remember how some people here claimed the airplanes would never be grounded? Well the UK government have now been forced to admit it's true...


And that great 4 billion deal in Africa? Well...
So that's 4 billion to maybe get the same deal as now if they don't decide to sucker punch the UK for more benefits before signing. May has to be the most brilliant negotiatior for the other side who's ever worked for the UK.

And to put things in perspective; this is the current EU trade deal status as per General Secretariat of the Council where white means no deal at all:


1st of April all of that turns white for the UK while EU only whites out UK...

This really puts things in perspective.

I feel for the UK citizens who voted to remain, it's looking more and more like a no deal is certain. I can only imagine the true chaos that is coming!

Capt'n Midnight

Nody wrote: »

And that great 4 billion deal in Africa? Well...

the small print acknowledged the agreement was not “legally binding” and was “without prejudice” to any changes those countries might demand before it was.

So that's 4 billion to maybe get the same deal as now if they don't decide to sucker punch the UK for more benefits before signing. May has to be the most brilliant negotiatior for the other side who's ever worked for the UK.

Wow that's actually impressive.

Especially when you consider that with it's political and economic instability South Africa actually falls into the "need them more than they need us" category. BTW South Africa has about 90% of the population of the Southern African Customs Union.

Other countries won't be as easy.

ancapailldorcha

While we have been saying for a long time that the UK is still negotiating with itself and that the Tory party is doing the same, it looks as if the same is true for Jacob Rees-Mogg's ERG:

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1038372269716848640?s=21

The goal of defining the will of the people proves ever elusive it seems.

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

While we have been saying for a long time that the UK is still negotiating with itself and that the Tory party is doing the same, it looks as if the same is true for Jacob Rees-Mogg's ERG:

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1038372269716848640?s=21

The goal of defining the will of the people proves ever elusive it seems.

It was ever thus with the hurler on the ditch.

murphaph

UsedToWait wrote: »

C4 News' take on it last night was that this was him clearing the decks for a leadership push - apparently Boris had been unfaithful (and not for the first time), so wanted to get ahead of the story..

The man isn't even truthful and honest with his own wife and kids but Brexiters are happy believing his pieces in the Telegraph? The mind boggles.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1038460300675244033

Rumours on Twitter that BoJo is going to make a push for the big job

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Rumours on Twitter that BoJo is going to make a push for the big job

His approval rating amongst Tory voters is way lower than May's.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-worst-prime-minister-theresa-may-uk-opinion-poll-yougov-a8527156.html

among Conservative voters, with 69 per cent thinking Ms May is a good fit for the job compared to just 42 per cent who say her potential rival would be.

ancapailldorcha

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

His approval rating amongst Tory voters is way lower than May's.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-worst-prime-minister-theresa-may-uk-opinion-poll-yougov-a8527156.html

The thing with Theresa May is that many think that she's driven by a sense of duty. She's not one of the Etonians and has been largely consistent for most of her career.

Johnson however epitomises literally everything wrong with the Conservative party. Cameron's detoxification of the party is being reversed as we speak. Johnson becoming leader will just push the liberal and centrist Tory voters out into the wilderness.

strandroad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Johnson however epitomises literally everything wrong with the Conservative party. Cameron's detoxification of the party is being reversed as we speak. Johnson becoming leader will just push the liberal and centrist Tory voters out into the wilderness.

Perhaps it needs to happen (as much as I despise Johnson). From the man who brought you Brexit... let him try to deliver on it.
The way it is today there seems to be a lot of pain on the horizon one way or another; certain clarity might be achieved if actual Brexiteers are forced to see it through.

Nody

strandroad wrote: »

Perhaps it needs to happen (as much as I despise Johnson). From the man who brought you Brexit... let him try to deliver on it.
The way it is today there seems to be a lot of pain on the horizon one way or another; certain clarity might be achieved if actual Brexiteers are forced to see it through.

I think there are two positive outcomes from Boris becoming the PM.

First of all any company not doing Brexit plans will suddenly get very busy doing just that and secondly once things goes horribly wrong he and his cronies will be kicked out from power very quickly. That will end his career as PM and hopefully Tories can come up with someone more suitable.