Brexit discussion thread IV

Rhineshark

Johnson's been mumbling about doing it for months now. Will he ever just get on with it and either put the May government out of its misery or shut up already.

Frankly, I think being a Tory PM of Britain post-March 2019 is going to be a brutal job and I really don't see Johnson, he who apparently thinks his job as FS is to derp a British citizen into (more) jail by talking rubbish, or who considers it diplomacy to quote Kipling in a Bhuddist temple, as having the cojones for it. Or more importantly, the brain for it. He has boundless ambition but his ability isn't close to matching it.

So he takes over now, is in *exactly* the same position as May, only he has to positively commit to the disastrous no-deal that appears to be the corner the breaksiteers are forcing the country into. There's no escape from Moscow at that point.

Or he waits until after March when he can point to the disaster and smugly say that he wouldn't have started from there at all, despite that it was basically his notions (whether espoused by him or Rees-Mogg or any of the rest of the brigade) that caused it.

Inquitus

Rhineshark wrote: »

Johnson's been mumbling about doing it for months now. Will he ever just get on with it and either put the May government out of its misery or shut up already.

Frankly, I think being a Tory PM of Britain post-March 2019 is going to be a brutal job and I really don't see Johnson, he who apparently thinks his job as FS is to derp a British citizen into (more) jail by talking rubbish, or who considers it diplomacy to quote Kipling in a Bhuddist temple, as having the cojones for it. Or more importantly, the brain for it. He has boundless ambition but his ability isn't close to matching it.

So he takes over now, is in *exactly* the same position as May, only he has to positively commit to the disastrous no-deal that appears to be the corner the breaksiteers are forcing the country into. There's no escape from Moscow at that point.

Or he waits until after March when he can point to the disaster and smugly say that he wouldn't have started from there at all, despite that it was basically his notions (whether espoused by him or Rees-Mogg or any of the rest of the brigade) that caused it.

The bookies odds are startling in so far as how bad the list of favourites is.

Rhineshark

What an appalling line-up. Out of those I will somewhat withhold judgement on Andrea Leadsom and Sajid Javid as I don't really know enough about them. The rest should not have control of a whelk stall. Even by committee.

Lemming

Rhineshark wrote: »

What an appalling line-up. Out of those I will somewhat withhold judgement on Andrea Leadsom and Sajid Javid as I don't really know enough about them. The rest should not have control of a whelk stall. Even by committee.

Savid Javid is the only name on that list that isn't smeared with Brexit baggage (or in Hunt's case .. mal-management of the NHS) or prior form for showing how witless they are. Unfortunately for him, the never-ending carnage drip-feeding out of the Windrush scandal is going to taint him in short order unless he is able to stamp his foot on the Home Office carry-on.

Andrea Loathsome is what they called her. Performances during Brexit tv debates do not convey just how much of a know-nothing charlatan she is.

An Ciarraioch

Pressure will now ramp up on Labour to officially back a second referendum, after Unite, Unison and GMB members all stated clear backing for a People's Vote - the political equivalent here would be SIPTU and ICTU taking a common stance on a certain subject:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/08/unions-poll-massive-backing-second-eu-brexit-referendum

Anthracite

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Johnson however epitomises literally everything wrong with the Conservative party. Cameron's detoxification of the party is being reversed as we speak. Johnson becoming leader will just push the liberal and centrist Tory voters out into the wilderness.

...Where they can greet the moderate Labour voters and ponder together why neither of them will ever vote for the Liberal Democrats.

Kermit.de.frog

Brexit talks about to collapse on Irish border issue according to an exclusive in tomorrow's UK Independent newspaper.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Brexit talks about to collapse on Irish border issue according to an exclusive in tomorrow's UK Independent newspaper.

No suprise there tbh. I'll be honest let them collapse the only way this has a good ending is if the Brits are made to stare down the barrel of their own gun that they keep threatening to shoot themselves in the face with.

This needs to happen IMO while theres still enough time to have a 2nd ref to stop this stupidity before it becomes irreversable.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Brexit talks about to collapse on Irish border issue according to an exclusive in tomorrow's UK Independent newspaper.

Internal or external talks?

Nody

lawred2 wrote: »

Internal or external talks?

External; UK can't accept "vague non binding promises" about how the back stop would not be needed; however if UK makes the same promises EU is a bully for not accepting them. We've entered 1984 people...

Injuryprone

Tuned in briefly to the last night of the proms on bbc1 and there was as many EU flags in the audience as there was Union jacks.

lawred2

Injuryprone wrote: »

Tuned in briefly to the last night of the proms on bbc1 and there was as many EU flags in the audience as there was Union jacks.

EU flags or flags of EU member nations?

lawred2

Nody wrote: »

External; UK can't accept "vague non binding promises" about how the back stop would not be needed; however if UK makes the same promises EU is a bully for not accepting them. We've entered 1984 people...

Well maybe having to face up to the reality that no deal is now the default state might trigger some reaction from Parliament

Infini

lawred2 wrote: »

Well maybe having to face up to the reality that no deal is now the default state might trigger some reaction from Parliament

No deal being the default is the only way they're gonna face the consequences of their own stupidity before they destroy their own country.

Imreoir2

Infini wrote: »

No deal being the default is the only way they're gonna face the consequences of their own stupidity before they destroy their own country.

Given the farce this has been to date, I cant hold out too much hope that even the crashing of reality around them will make them see sense. I expect them to march over the cliff singing Rule Britainia all the way.

I don't think they will be convinced to accept the backstop at this stage. Perhaps once they have seen how bad No-Deal is, they will take it next summer. If not then unification is the only option left.

CelticRambler

lawred2 wrote: »

EU flags or flags of EU member nations?

Didn't see it myself this year, but last year the auditorium was a sea of EU stars-on-blue flags, almost to the point of making it difficult to see any union jacks.

But then I suspect the Proms attracts an audience of predominantly well-educated, well-travelled, cosmopolitan Londoners who would have voted Remain.

On the topic of the Proms, during the decade I spent in England, I never could understand why this face of British nationalism (and some of the quirkier stuff like morris dancing, cheese rolling and Green Man folklore) was never promoted as much as football hooliganism, WW1&2 and the bloodthirstiness of their mediaeval monarchs.

Imreoir2

CelticRambler wrote: »

On the topic of the Proms, during the decade I spent in England, I never could understand why this face of British nationalism (and some of the quirkier stuff like morris dancing, cheese rolling and Green Man folklore) was never promoted as much as football hooliganism, WW1&2 and the bloodthirstiness of their mediaeval monarchs.

The UK has become the captive of a nasty form of far right ethno-nationalism. The things you have mentioned are symbols for the values of this form of nationalism. Football Hooligans (Agressive Masculinity) the focus on WW1&2 and its expression through Poppy Fascism (enforced conformity) their bloodthirsty history (agressive xenophobia).

The UK obviously is much wider and richer than this narrow blood and soil nationalism, but the far right ideology delivered by their tabloid press has gained a strong hold over the British mainstream and it's all going to end in tears.

Junkyard Tom

So the wheels are coming off the Brexit-bus as it hurtles toward the no-deal cliff. Even if they did hit the emergency brake Britain is a damaged brand. I can see no happy ending to all of this.. at least from a British perspective.

Capt'n Midnight

Rhineshark wrote: »

What an appalling line-up. Out of those I will somewhat withhold judgement on Andrea Leadsom

You might remember Andrea Leadsom falling at the final fence in the last leadership race by tripping up on a "speaking as a mother" card , leaving May to win by default.

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Given the farce this has been to date, I cant hold out too much hope that even the crashing of reality around them will make them see sense. I expect them to march over the cliff singing Rule Britainia all the way.

I don't think they will be convinced to accept the backstop at this stage. Perhaps once they have seen how bad No-Deal is, they will take it next summer. If not then unification is the only option left.

Honestly they might be a lost cause at this stage but there's enough sign's there in Britain that show enough people are copping on to the farce that's the Brexiteers. An early enough collapse of the talk's basically on the issue of NI might trigger an early enough GE to throw the whole conservative party and their DUP lackeys out of government.

I don't have high hopes even with Corbyn getting into downing street BUT their main backers the unions are all wanting a 2nd vote on this. He might be a closet brexiteer but he would be under a huge amount of pressure from both his grassroots backers and the unions to allow a 2nd vote on the grounds that the conservatives made a total bollocks of things and I certainly doubt he would want to be the captain of a sinking ship caused by the conservatives.

As for the No Deal scenario if there's a crash out and a hard border next year then reunification is inevitable the signs are there EU > UK membership, enough people up there know who's going to take care of them better if they're pushed to choose one. NI also voted to remain as well.

Some of those Brexiteers might think that refusing the backstop now and negotiating after Brexit might work but honestly I think that wont be the case. If there's a Hard Brexit the EU won't allow themselves to be seen throwing a member state under the bus for a situation not of their making and I could see the backstop being a condition for ANY future agreement. Britain might try the usual blaming the EU carry on but the truth is THEYRE the one's to blame for pursuing such a stupid idea and strategy and everyone else will blame them for it. On top of that they've been given multiple chances for an out from this but still cant adopt a coherent position.

Panrich

Stand by by for a red top backlash against us for ruining their glorious Brexit dream.

This could get very nasty in the short term.

prawnsambo

Micheál Martin has been having a go at Leo for Anglo-Irish relations being at a 30 year low. With all due respect to Micheál, has he not being paying attention?

LeinsterDub

Injuryprone wrote: »

Tuned in briefly to the last night of the proms on bbc1 and there was as many EU flags in the audience as there was Union jacks.

https://twitter.com/hoitab/status/1038455334912884736

Looks like it was an organised effort

J Mysterio

Boris must be under a heavy strain, he has obviously lost his marbles. His most recent comments are pretty shocking and won't do him any favours at all. The Tories actually look to be doing their best to destroy their own party entirely.

Rhineshark

prawnsambo wrote: »

Micheál Martin has been having a go at Leo for Anglo-Irish relations being at a 30 year low. With all due respect to Micheál, has he not being paying attention?

Oh for heaven's sake. It's blatantly clear where the fault for that is.

I have no issues with him having a go at Varadkar for numerous things, although going by past efforts I won't be hugely impressed by FF pointing them out since most of them have been the result of neglect by both major parties, but I have no patience with exploiting the Brexit Sh*tshow for votes. This is bigger than FF/FG and unless Martin has specific new plans for how to deal with the belligerent obduratism from next door, he can frankly put a sock in it.

Water John

The push from the latest poll for a 2nd Ref is going to have a major impact within Labour firstly. This may move most of Labour's top people if not Corbyn to support it. Timing with Party Conference is crucial. It will be an interesting state of affairs if its trade union members keep the UK in the EU.

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

The push from the latest poll for a 2nd Ref is going to have a major impact within Labour firstly. This may move most of Labour's top people if not Corbyn to support it. Timing with Party Conference is crucial. It will be an interesting state of affairs if its trade union members keep the UK in the EU.

Will be interesting to see if there's much appetite for this in the Conservative party. I suspect that a 2nd referendum vote in Parliament will tear them apart completely.

PeadarCo

Water John wrote:

The push from the latest poll for a 2nd Ref is going to have a major impact within Labour firstly. This may move most of Labour's top people if not Corbyn to support it. Timing with Party Conference is crucial. It will be an interesting state of affairs if its trade union members keep the UK in the EU.

What does it say about Brexit though when you have both employee and employer representative bodies coming out against Brexit. It's a sign of how messed up both Labour and the Tories are that large sections of both parties ignore(putting it nicely) these organisations

Water John

Prawn, if LB bring it to the floor of the Commons and 20 Con MPs support it, TM can respect that or go to the country.

lawred2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/hoitab/status/1038455334912884736

Looks like it was an organised effort

You still can't force someone to wave the flag