Brexit discussion thread IV

Silent Running

lawred2 wrote: »

You still can't force someone to wave the flag

Dunno about that Mr Kim seems to have that one sorted.

No question that there is a groundswell of support for putting the worms back in the can. I'm just not sure it's enough to put this thing to bed. If a second poll resulted in a 55/45% win, would it solve the Eurosceptic problem in the UK? I have my doubts.

lawred2

Silent Running wrote: »

Dunno about that Mr Kim seems to have that one sorted.

No question that there is a groundswell of support for putting the worms back in the can. I'm just not sure it's enough to put this thing to bed. If a second poll resulted in a 55/45% win, would it solve the Eurosceptic problem in the UK? I have my doubts.

10% differential would represent about 4m eligible voters..

4% was enough to use dynamite on the can in the first place so not sure why 10% wouldn't be enough to do the opposite..

Sure it would be the will of the people and all that

trellheim

One point made on Twitter today is that Boris' awful "suicide vest" comments is a dead cat designed to divert attention from his marital split ; this is a typical Lynton Crosby playbook play - can't have anything interfering with the leadership play.


On the point above - re talks collapsing. In a 'No deal' does the CTA survive ? I originally thought it did but now I am really not sure it will.

Silent Running

lawred2 wrote: »

10% differential would represent about 4m eligible voters..

4% was enough to use dynamite on the can in the first place so not sure why 10% wouldn't be enough to do the opposite..

Sure it would be the will of the people and all that

Yes, a win is a win. Will of the people and all that. I just think that, unless the Eurosceptic dragon is slain, the problem will raise it's ugly head in the future.

Maybe the only way to sort this problem once and for all is for the UK to crash out, feel the cold wind blow in the outside world and the pain it brings, then in maybe 10 years, vote to return to the fold by an 80/20% result.

Could they ever be model Europeans? Maybe not, but anything is better than the current situation where the red tops and politicians make the EU out to be the Devil incarnate.

An Ciarraioch

A 500% increase (yes, pedantically it's only 400%, but anyway) in the number of British people here becoming naturalised as Irish citizens - these are those who aren't entitled to claim an Irish passport.

http://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-richmond-4226562-Sep2018/

mayo.mick

A crowdfunding campaign to have Boris Johnson prosecuted over his claims about Brexit has received £24,000 in donations in just two days.

The "Brexit Justice" campaign has hired barristers to work on a legal case relating to an alleged "abuse of public trust" by Mr Johnson over his claim that Britain pays £350m a week to the EU.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8528886.html

Infini

mayo.mick wrote: »

A crowdfunding campaign to have Boris Johnson prosecuted over his claims about Brexit has received £24,000 in donations in just two days.

The "Brexit Justice" campaign has hired barristers to work on a legal case relating to an alleged "abuse of public trust" by Mr Johnson over his claim that Britain pays £350m a week to the EU.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8528886.html

Would be so ironic if he's brought down by his own BS. As for his suicide vest jab it seem's to be backfiring on him pretty badly in how disgusting some people are finding it.

lawred2

Cool half a mill needed for the legal team...

All that will happen at the end of that is a slightly richer group of lawyers and barristers

Rhineshark

trellheim wrote: »

One point made on Twitter today is that Boris' awful "suicide vest" comments is a dead cat designed to divert attention from his marital split ; this is a typical Lynton Crosby playbook play - can't have anything interfering with the leadership play.


On the point above - re talks collapsing. In a 'No deal' does the CTA survive ? I originally thought it did but now I am really not sure it will.

Could be a Lynton Crosby effort or a Bannon ploy. I reckon Bannon did advise him to go for the chaos attention method if only because it worked for Trump (and a nationalist supremacist possibly misjudges another country's culture would not be a surprise) hence the hijab thing and perhaps "suicide vest". He is going all in on the Muslims line so far (which gives rise to the question of whether if Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe had been named Mary Ratcliffe he might have put in more effort). Fame is better than notoriety but either is better than obscurity etc.

Either way it's a dead cat though. This one just does have a whiff of "look at mee" about it rather than diverting to an external target.

Imreoir2

trellheim wrote: »

One point made on Twitter today is that Boris' awful "suicide vest" comments is a dead cat designed to divert attention from his marital split ; this is a typical Lynton Crosby playbook play - can't have anything interfering with the leadership play.


On the point above - re talks collapsing. In a 'No deal' does the CTA survive ? I originally thought it did but now I am really not sure it will.

Correct me if I am wrong, but is the CTA anythin more than a gentlemans agreement? I don't think there is any treaty underpinning it, just longstanding policy by both governments. In this sense it is entirely possible that both governments will continue to allow the CTA to function beyond Brexit.

Ted_YNWA

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Correct me if I am wrong, but is the CTA anythin more than a gentlemans agreement? I don't think there is any treaty underpinning it, just longstanding policy by both governments. In this sense it is entirely possible that both governments will continue to allow the CTA to function beyond Brexit.

The problem will be how do they know that it is an Irish person travelling and not someone travelling to Ireland & then onto UK.

Capt'n Midnight

The Brexiteers plan is to both reduce taxes and increase spending.
Presumably someone's heard of the magic money tree. Or they will have to slash other spending.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6146981/Jacob-Rees-Mogg-reveals-Chuck-Chequers-plan-tax-cuts-NHS-funding-boost.html


Canada-style deal with a fallback to WTO
- in and of itself this bit is logical.


They want a significant proportion of the £39 billion ‘divorce bill’ to be ploughed into the NHS, and for £2 billion a year to be ringfenced for social care.
- So they aren't going to pay what they agreed they owe. Call it table stakes for a new deal. WTO it is then.
- £2Bn ain't much, its 11% of 350m a week. NHS budget 2015/16 was £116.4B


‘give everyone a Brexit bonus’ by cutting tax, business rates, capital gains tax and stamp duty, and VAT on female hygiene products, home insulation and domestic fuel.
- currently the fuel DUTY is 10.7p per litre, so reducing the 5% VAT is just smoke
- reducing CGT etc. will help the rich more
- the devil in the detail is where the money comes from, will they reduce welfare ??


‘the UK needs a strong defence to protect these islands, which includes the insurance of a nuclear missile shield to deter aggression’.
- either this is Regan's Star Wars or something like Patriot
the technology for the former doesn't exist while the later is very, very expensive


re-establishing an expeditionary force, for events like the invasion of the Falklands or Kuwait
- here's the list of ships used in the Falklands war
I would not be surprised if it's bigger than the current Royal Navy
UK Merchant Marine is a lot smaller than back then too


The manifesto argues in favour of an ‘invisible customs frontier’, with any checks carried out away from the border.
- yeah , 100's of crossings, 1000's of JCB's
- at one point 40% of the fuel sold in the North was smuggled or laundered


Mr Rees Mogg claims that the UK would be able to enjoy ten tariff-free years while a free-trade agreement was negotiated.
WTF - liar liar pants on fire :mad:
- The Canada type deal includes some tariffs that will gradually reduce over the next six or seven years. So not zero tariff while negotiating.
- in 201 days the WTO tariffs kick in. Unless a deal is in sight and only minor details need tidying up.

First Up

Ted_YNWA wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Correct me if I am wrong, but is the CTA anythin more than a gentlemans agreement? I don't think there is any treaty underpinning it, just longstanding policy by both governments. In this sense it is entirely possible that both governments will continue to allow the CTA to function beyond Brexit.

The problem will be how do they know that it is an Irish person travelling and not someone travelling to Ireland & then onto UK.

Passport checks.

Imreoir2

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The Brexiteers plan is to both reduce taxes and increase spending.
Presumably someone's heard of the magic money tree. Or they will have to slash other spending.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6146981/Jacob-Rees-Mogg-reveals-Chuck-Chequers-plan-tax-cuts-NHS-funding-boost.html


Canada-style deal with a fallback to WTO
- in and of itself this bit is logical.


They want a significant proportion of the £39 billion ‘divorce bill’ to be ploughed into the NHS, and for £2 billion a year to be ringfenced for social care.
- So they aren't going to pay what they agreed they owe. Call it table stakes for a new deal. WTO it is then.
- £2Bn ain't much, its 11% of 350m a week. NHS budget 2015/16 was £116.4B


‘give everyone a Brexit bonus’ by cutting tax, business rates, capital gains tax and stamp duty, and VAT on female hygiene products, home insulation and domestic fuel.
- currently the fuel DUTY is 10.7p per litre, so reducing the 5% VAT is just smoke
- reducing CGT etc. will help the rich more
- the devil in the detail is where the money comes from, will they reduce welfare ??


‘the UK needs a strong defence to protect these islands, which includes the insurance of a nuclear missile shield to deter aggression’.
- either this is Regan's Star Wars or something like Patriot
the technology for the former doesn't exist while the later is very, very expensive


re-establishing an expeditionary force, for events like the invasion of the Falklands or Kuwait
- here's the list of ships used in the Falklands war
I would not be surprised if it's bigger than the current Royal Navy
UK Merchant Marine is a lot smaller than back then too


The manifesto argues in favour of an ‘invisible customs frontier’, with any checks carried out away from the border.
- yeah , 100's of crossings, 1000's of JCB's
- at one point 40% of the fuel sold in the North was smuggled or laundered


Mr Rees Mogg claims that the UK would be able to enjoy ten tariff-free years while a free-trade agreement was negotiated.
WTF - liar liar pants on fire :mad:
- The Canada type deal includes some tariffs that will gradually reduce over the next six or seven years. So not zero tariff while negotiating.
- in 201 days the WTO tariffs kick in. Unless a deal is in sight and only minor details need tidying up.

I'm guessing their plan is to hugely increase the UK national debt. I'm sure more than a few well placed Brexiteers will happily buy UK government bonds if they can get interest rates high enough and live out their lives on interest payments from the British people.

Capt'n Midnight

Ted_YNWA wrote: »

The problem will be how do they know that it is an Irish person travelling and not someone travelling to Ireland & then onto UK.

Today Chinese people can come here without a UK Visa, the opposite applies to a lot of Commonwealth visitors to the UK.

You don't need to carry ID in the UK but the police have lots of powers to stop you. You don't need to give your name and address but the police could arrest you on suspicion. The UK right to silence has been eroded over the years. You don't have to speak but inferences can now be made about your silence.
see also
Police and Criminal Evidence Act (PACE) 1984
Criminal Justice and Public Order Act (CJPOA) 1994
Terrorism Act (TA) 2000
Misuse of Drugs (MDA) Act 1971


https://www.gov.uk/report-immigration-crime

Report an immigration crime

Contact the Home Office if you think someone is living or working in the UK illegally, or is employing someone who isn’t allowed to work in the UK.

! In an emergency, dial 999 and ask for the police.

Ted_YNWA

First Up wrote: »

Passport checks.

Currently there is very little checks on ferries, this will add a lot of time for disembarking to check everyone coming off.

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I'm guessing their plan is to hugely increase the UK national debt. I'm sure more than a few well placed Brexiteers will happily buy UK government bonds if they can get interest rates high enough and live out their lives on interest payments from the British people.

That was my first thought too, thanks for explaining who benefits.

Brexit is a godsend for speculators, disaster capitalists and rent seekers and possibly the likes of BAE Systems.

First Up

Ted_YNWA wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Passport checks.

Currently there is very little checks on ferries, this will add a lot of time for disembarking to check everyone coming off.

Yes it will.

brickster69

Mr Rees Mogg claims that the UK would be able to enjoy ten tariff-free years while a free-trade agreement was negotiated.
WTF - liar liar pants on fire :mad:

The 10 year is possible for countries leaving a custom union to trade on the same terms on goods while a new FTA is negotiated. There is no mention of 10 years directly, just a reasonable amount of time not exceeding 10 years.
[font=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/gatt47_02_e.htm#articleXXIV[/font]
Other WTO members could object to it if they would be harmed by it any way. But considering it would be just a status quo no one can justify it.

Spanish Eyes

Ted_YNWA wrote: »

Currently there is very little checks on ferries, this will add a lot of time for disembarking to check everyone coming off.

About time too. Was wide open. But no one cared.

Same will apply to the Enterprise from Dublin to Belfast also I'm thinking... but it would be quicker to walk the distance given the level of service there!

Buses affected too I'd imagine?

Just for balance, I was on a bus from Bilbao to Bayonne last year. Just before the French Border, the heavies got on the bus with their dogs. We all had to show our passports. I didn't mind as I thought it was terrorist related or something. But it can be done, and obviously is!

Ted_YNWA

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

About time too. Was wide open. But no one cared.

Same will apply to the Enterprise from Dublin to Belfast also I'm thinking... but it would be quicker to walk the distance given the level of service there!

Buses affected too I'd imagine?

Just for balance, I was on a bus from Bilbao to Bayonne last year. Just before the French Border, the heavies got on the bus with their dogs. We all had to show our passports. I didn't mind as I thought it was terrorist related or something. But it can be done, and obviously is!

True, it was wide open to potential abuse going both ways. So a potential benefit to crack down on 'people of interest' to police forces travelling.

Leroy42

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

About time too. Was wide open. But no one cared.

Same will apply to the Enterprise from Dublin to Belfast also I'm thinking... but it would be quicker to walk the distance given the level of service there!

Buses affected too I'd imagine?

Just for balance, I was on a bus from Bilbao to Bayonne last year. Just before the French Border, the heavies got on the bus with their dogs. We all had to show our passports. I didn't mind as I thought it was terrorist related or something. But it can be done, and obviously is!

There is a massive difference between the occassional and targeted check and having to check each and every ferry/coach/car

Peregrinus

Rhineshark wrote: »

Could be a Lynton Crosby effort or a Bannon ploy. I reckon Bannon did advise him to go for the chaos attention method if only because it worked for Trump (and a nationalist supremacist possibly misjudges another country's culture would not be a surprise) hence the hijab thing and perhaps "suicide vest". He is going all in on the Muslims line so far (which gives rise to the question of whether if Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe had been named Mary Ratcliffe he might have put in more effort). Fame is better than notoriety but either is better than obscurity etc.

Either way it's a dead cat though. This one just does have a whiff of "look at mee" about it rather than diverting to an external target.

I think myself it's a dead cat designed to reduce the heat on the ERG for still not having a Brexit plan that they themselves regard as credible enough to be exposed to public scrutiny.

trellheim

At the moment you can drive from Dundalk to Newry and from Lifford to Strabane with no checks.( just as much as the Aircoaches hurtling up and down the M1 ) That is the CTA.

In law UK and Irish nationals do not have to show identification when arriving from a flight that started in the CTA ( the UK law is very slightly different) , also Irish folk in the UK are not considered aliens , we can vote in their elections and they can vote in ours. ( except IIRC Presidential elections as you can't vote for the UK Monarchy and thus no reciprocity exists )

So more than a gentleman's agreement

I can't see how it survives a no-deal though.

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

At the moment you can drive from Dundalk to Newry and from Lifford to Strabane with no checks.( just as much as the Aircoaches hurtling up and down the M1 ) That is the CTA.

In law UK and Irish nationals do not have to show identification when arriving from a flight that started in the CTA ( the UK law is very slightly different) , also Irish folk in the UK are not considered aliens , we can vote in their elections and they can vote in ours. ( except IIRC Presidential elections as you can't vote for the UK Monarchy and thus no reciprocity exists )

So more than a gentleman's agreement

I can't see how it survives a no-deal though.

The CTA is not in law. It's an agreement.

Peregrinus

trellheim wrote: »

At the moment you can drive from Dundalk to Newry and from Lifford to Strabane with no checks.( just as much as the Aircoaches hurtling up and down the M1 ) That is the CTA.

In law UK and Irish nationals do not have to show identification when arriving from a flight that started in the CTA ( the UK law is very slightly different) , also Irish folk in the UK are not considered aliens , we can vote in their elections and they can vote in ours. ( except IIRC Presidential elections as you can't vote for the UK Monarchy and thus no reciprocity exists )

So more than a gentleman's agreement

I can't see how it survives a no-deal though.

The CTA was in place before either the UK or Ireland joined the EU. It doesn't depend on EU law for its operation, either in Ireland or in the UK. Therefore, in principle there is no reason why it cannot survive Brexit.

It may come under some strain but, if both sides are committed to retaining it (and as far as I can see they both are) it should be possible to do so.

Up to now, the CTA has worked because Ireland and the UK have had broadly similar migtation/visa requirements with respect to the rest of the world. Not identical, but sufficiently similar that the possiblity of "leakage" by people evading UK requirements by transiting through Ireland, or vice versa, was limited, and judged to be acceptable.

The obvious area where this may not be true after Brexit is if the UK introduces migration controls for EU citizens (which, as far as at least some Leave voters are concerned, is the whole point of Brexit).

If the UK decides to enforce control of EU citizens at its borders then, yeah, the common travel area is a problem, since EU citizens can enter Ireland freely and, if the CTA is maintained, can then enter the UK freely.

However, as far as I can gather the UK doesn't intend to enforce control of EU citizens at its borders. EU citizens will still be able to enter the UK freely, won't require visas, etc, etc. What will be controlled is EU citizens taking jobs, or otherwise settling in the UK, and the plan is to control that by in-country checks - requiring employers/landlords/estate agents/schools/GP practices/etc to verify visa status, and/or to notify the Home Office when non-UK nationals take jobs/leases/school places/etc.

If this is the approach taken, then the CTA won't be a problem. Yes, EU citizens can enter freely via Ireland but that's not a problem because they'll be able to enter just as freely at Dover or Heathrow. And, regardless of where they enter, if they want to take up a job, etc, etc, then they'll need to show that the have the necessary visa/migration status.

Of course, this may not work terribly well. They've had a dry run with in-country controls in the form of the "hostile environment" that led to the Windrush scandal; that was not a promising start. Still, SFAIK that is still the method by which they intend to control immigration, and it doesn't require an end to the CTA.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/cgeorge2020/status/1039062214181834752

What has the EU ever done for us. a project by project breakdown that is very much incomplete. Great idea however it feels like it should be filed under 2 years too late.

lawred2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/cgeorge2020/status/1039062214181834752

What has the EU ever done for us. a project by project breakdown that is very much incomplete. Great idea however it feels like it should be filed under 2 years too late.

That is brilliant.

The same should be done as an active project by the EU for every member state

Leroy42

Peregrinus wrote: »

If the UK decides to enforce control of EU citizens at its borders then, yeah, the common travel area is a problem, since EU citizens can enter Ireland freely and, if the CTA is maintained, can then enter the UK freely.

However, as far as I can gather the UK doesn't intend to enforce control of EU citizens at its borders. EU citizens will still be able to enter the UK freely, won't require visas, etc, etc. What will be controlled is EU citizens taking jobs, or otherwise settling in the UK, and the plan is to control that by in-country checks - requiring employers/landlords/estate agents/schools/GP practices/etc to verify visa status, and/or to notify the Home Office when non-UK nationals take jobs/leases/school places/etc.

If this is the approach taken, then the CTA won't be a problem. Yes, EU citizens can enter freely via Ireland but that's not a problem because they'll be able to enter just as freely at Dover or Heathrow. And, regardless of where they enter, if they want to take up a job, etc, etc, then they'll need to show that the have the necessary visa/migration status.

Of course, this may not work terribly well. They've had a dry run with in-country controls in the form of the "hostile environment" that led to the Windrush scandal; that was not a promising start. Still, SFAIK that is still the method by which they intend to control immigration, and it doesn't require an end to the CTA.

Also, it sounds grand in principle, basically letting people in but not allowing them to work, rent etc, but the US has seen the impact of that sort of policy in regards to Mexico and it is one on the main topics that drives support for Trump.

What will be the costs of removing these people? Are the UK really just gong to stop feeding them, healthcare, let them simply die on the side of the road. The camp at Calais has shown that plenty of people are able to put up with serious deprivation rather than return to the hell that is their home.

So you will have costs costs, immigration police, flights, the media etc etc. It seems bonkers that they would think that simply letting them in freely and then try to remove them is a better option that not letting them in in the 1st place.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Also, it sounds grand in principle, basically letting people in but not allowing them to work, rent etc, but the US has seen the impact of that sort of policy in regards to Mexico and it is one on the main topics that drives support for Trump.

What will be the costs of removing these people? Are the UK really just gong to stop feeding them, healthcare, let them simply die on the side of the road. The camp at Calais has shown that plenty of people are able to put up with serious deprivation rather than return to the hell that is their home.

So you will have costs costs, immigration police, flights, the media etc etc. It seems bonkers that they would think that simply letting them in freely and then try to remove them is a better option that not letting them in in the 1st place.

Well, there are difficulties. But don't dismiss the system too lightly; it's the system alread in use in most European countries.

The UK and Ireland, as island nations, have until now had a relatively easy time of controlling entry at the border with the result that, once you're in, there was very little in the way of immigration enforcement.

That hasn't been the case with continental European countries, where despite the best efforts of the authorities land borders have always been much more porous. So for the past 200 years, if not for more, most of them have had systems of population registration under which everybody has a registered address and an identity card which is then the key to voting, school enrolment, tax returns, public healthcare, yadda, yadda, yadda. So if you're a migrant with no right to be there, you have to live pretty much off the radar, working in the black economy, no social welfare, limited healthcare, etc.

The UK is basically moving towards this system except that, being Tories, they are privatising it - it'll be down to employers, GPS, schools etc to do most of the frontline enforcment.

Will they let people die, starve, etc? No; if you turn up at a hospital needing emergency treatment or at a social services office needing emergency accommodation for your children, I expect you'll get it. But you'll also get drawn to the attention of the lads and lasses at the home office, and efforts to deport you will commence.

Will it work well? No, it'll be a disaster, with lots of people victimised for no reason, and other people slipping through the net because they have the good fortune not to fall ill or beget children. But it's what they're planning. And it won't affect the CTA.