Brexit discussion thread IV

McMurphy · 09-07-2018 3:05pm

The UK government is in free fall by the looks of things.

4068ac1elhodqr · 09-07-2018 3:05pm

Boris may have a career in pantomine ahead of him to look forward to.

BonnieSituation · 09-07-2018 3:05pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boris Johnson has resigned.

Theresa May could be gone at any time herself.

Reports.

Where are you seeing that?

BonnieSituation · 09-07-2018 3:06pm

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

The UK government is in free fall by the looks of things.

Remember the multiple resignantions of our government in 2011?

Surely it won't get that bad...

Frank Bullitt · 09-07-2018 3:06pm

Yikes, Johnson done as well...we just need Gove now for a full house.

cml387 · 09-07-2018 3:07pm

I though he promised David Cameron he'd be good.

Interesting to see what Michael Gove will do now?
Resign and run Boris's leadership campaign?

Kermit.de.frog · 09-07-2018 3:07pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Where are you seeing that?

Just speculation by political hacks. She could could be gone by the end of the week. Depends how the dust settles.

Concensus is that Boris is a much bigger blow to confidence in her than Davis.

bilston · 09-07-2018 3:09pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boris Johnson has resigned.

Theresa May could be gone at any time herself.

Reports.

I think May will be safe in the short term. There needs to be a certain number of Tory MPs wanting a leadership race and even then they'd have to actually defeat May, and I don't think they would.

The irony of it all is that Cameron called the referendum to end the divide in the Tory party once and for all and keep Britain in the EU. I think it's fair to say he miscalculated.

Johnson resigning is no doubt part of some plot, but it will fail.

seamus · 09-07-2018 3:10pm

The irony is that with Johnson and Davis gone, there is a golden opportunity to put some competent people in their places and try and salvage something. But instead the UK will probably go to the polls less than 9 months away from the biggest political event in modern British history.

Itssoeasy · 09-07-2018 3:17pm

Teresa may will be speaking in the House of Commons in about 15 minutes. She needs to show a spine as it seems to be failing apart(more so than before I mean) for her.

09-07-2018 3:18pm

"His departure came 30 minutes before Theresa May is due to address Parliament about her new Brexit plan, which has angered many Tory MPs."

I'm looking forward to watching that on parliamentlive.tv if it happens.

BorneTobyWilde · 09-07-2018 3:20pm

Brexit, what Brexit
May is weak, Trump would not put up with the EU dictating tactics on Brexit. It would be take it or leave it.

murpho999 · 09-07-2018 3:20pm

Surely May cannot survive this crisis?

Harika · 09-07-2018 3:22pm

murpho999 wrote: »

Surely May cannot survive this crisis?

The million dollar question - expect a non confidence vote anytime now

Imreoir2 · 09-07-2018 3:22pm

There was talk of a reshuffel on the cards. Davis/Johnson probably jumbped ship now and have it look like it was on principle rather than get shoved into some form of irrelevance like Secretary of State for International Development.

At least now Borris can get what he wanted from the start, to go back to being the leader of the eurosceptic protest wing of the Tories from the backbenches, writihg his column, waiting until he can angle himself into No. 10.

One wonders if JRM will really welcome being crowded out on the backbenches by other leadning Brexiteers?

Nody · 09-07-2018 3:24pm

seamus wrote: »

The irony is that with Johnson and Davis gone, there is a golden opportunity to put some competent people in their places and try and salvage something. But instead the UK will probably go to the polls less than 9 months away from the biggest political event in modern British history.

And Jeremy will claim it's proof that people want the Labour version of Brexit from it (which is the Tory version of hard crash out but with different regulation coming afterwards).

sink · 09-07-2018 3:30pm

I'd say Liam Fox is very likely to follow suit. He's done nothing and he'll have even less to do should May's plan lead to a soft Brexit.

Penn · 09-07-2018 3:31pm

murpho999 wrote: »

Surely May cannot survive this crisis?

The worst decision she's made throughout the entire Brexit thing is going for PM when Cameron stepped down even though she was on the Remain side. It was a poisoned chalice for anyone, but doubly so for a Remainer. And now she's so deep into it she can't pull out of it.

She'll try and stay. It'll be up to the Tory party to force her to leave. The big question then will be given how deep they are in negotiations and how it's likely they'll get no deal, will it be a Brexiter or Remainer who ascends to the throne? Given the timeframe for Brexit and the desperation of May's proposals this weekend and how giving up so much control is still their best option, will enough of the Tory party try to reverse Brexit?

Leroy42 · 09-07-2018 3:34pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Brexit, what Brexit
May is weak, Trump would not put up with the EU dictating tactics on Brexit. It would be take it or leave it.

Em, isn't this exactly what TM and DD tried to do, and then the EU said they would leave it.

So, just like Trump, they were forced to climbdown when reality encroached. It is easy to be Billy Big Balls when you are not in the ring!

LuckyLloyd · 09-07-2018 3:34pm

Penn wrote: »

The worst decision she's made throughout the entire Brexit thing is going for PM when Cameron stepped down even though she was on the Remain side. It was a poisoned chalice for anyone, but doubly so for a Remainer. And now she's so deep into it she can't pull out of it.

She'll try and stay. It'll be up to the Tory party to force her to leave. The big question then will be given how deep they are in negotiations and how it's likely they'll get no deal, will it be a Brexiter or Remainer who ascends to the throne? Given the timeframe for Brexit and the desperation of May's proposals this weekend and how giving up so much control is still their best option, will enough of the Tory party try to reverse Brexit?

How is it her worst decision? All these people desire the top job. Getting it is the prize, and then holding onto it for as long as possible. Extraordinary times gave her a shot she otherwise would have been unlikely to receive. Had Remain carried the referendum, Cameron would still likely be PM facing off Corbyn on social / economic issues in the UK.

As it is, she is fixed in history forever, the second female Prime Minister ever and one who will have her contributions and period in charge analysed by Political commentators and students long after she's dead. That's what these people live for.

BorneTobyWilde · 09-07-2018 3:35pm

''friends''
The room ''LOL''

Dymo · 09-07-2018 3:35pm

I wonder did Boris go because he has a better opinion of the feeling in the Conservative party, maybe he has the numbers to topple May.

At this stage to me Brexit means Brexit, they might as well just prepare for WTO rules, then on March 30th the real negotiations can begin.

May is just hangin in there trying to get a Canada Deal or a Norway deal and as time is running out she has to act quick.

Inquitus · 09-07-2018 3:35pm

Tory leadership odds mean it looks inevitable that the winner will be a hard Brexiteer, should enough Torys write to the 1922 committee and May lose the subsequent vote.

Itssoeasy · 09-07-2018 3:39pm

Boris had passion. The House of Commons goes LOL.

flatty · 09-07-2018 3:40pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Brexit, what Brexit
May is weak, Trump would not put up with the EU dictating tactics on Brexit. It would be take it or leave it.

It's easy to be a bully when you have a big stick. TM, for all her faults, has no ammunition.

Leroy42 · 09-07-2018 3:40pm

Dymo wrote: »

I wonder did Boris go because he has a better opinion of the feeling in the Conservative party, maybe he has the numbers to topple May.

At this stage to me Brexit means Brexit, they might as well just prepare for WTO rules, then on March 30th the real negotiations can begin.

May is just hangin in there trying to get a Canada Deal or a Norway deal and as time is running out she has to act quick.

Are you aware of the implications of the path you are suggesting? Hard Border in NI, so reneging on an International agreement against the wishes of both the people in ROI and NI for a start.

Either massive issues with ports and airports, or temporarily opening the borders, which my first bet would see the entire camp at Calais move to the UK.

FrancieBrady · 09-07-2018 3:41pm

May sounds as rattled as she did after the December debacle.

Harika · 09-07-2018 3:44pm

May brings up the new technology what will be brought forward to solve the border import issues. lol That this is not dead yet and brought back up to life while every SME says it won't work in time for Brexit.

Itssoeasy · 09-07-2018 3:45pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

May sounds as rattled as she did after the December debacle.

The opposition benches are having fun with this situation. A week is a long time in politics.

Leroy42 · 09-07-2018 3:47pm

TM in the house

She says the EU goods regulation that the UK would have to accept are relatively stable. There would be a parliamentary lock on any new laws, she says.

She says parliament would be able to reject any proposals if it wanted, recognising that there would be consequences.

How is that any different to what they have now, except that the UK will now, under BRexit, have no saw whatsoever in the formulation of said proposal.

And saying they are relatively stable is simply a nonsense. There are stable in as much as the current regulations tend not to change. But we have only recently seen the introduction of GDPR. When she mentioned consequences, does she envisage another round of negotiations everytime the UK decide they don't like something?

Harika · 09-07-2018 3:48pm

Now she is selling the Brexit dividend, what does betting say how long she will survive?
Edit: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/exit-dates-theresa-may
2018 just not which month

Leroy42 · 09-07-2018 3:48pm

Harika wrote: »

May brings up the new technology what will be brought forward to solve the border import issues. lol That this is not dead yet and brought back up to life while every SME says it won't work in time for Brexit.

Brought forward!

that makes it sound like they have it all ready but they were just holding out for the latest version or something.

Rather then the fact that they haven't even begun to look for tenders.

Nody · 09-07-2018 3:58pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Are you aware of the implications of the path you are suggesting? Hard Border in NI, so reneging on an International agreement against the wishes of both the people in ROI and NI for a start.

Either massive issues with ports and airports, or temporarily opening the borders, which my first bet would see the entire camp at Calais move to the UK.

Which if you excuse me being cruel here is the best possible outcome for all parties. Now here's the cruel part; UK needs to go through a steel bath to shed the current leadership (both parties) and lies of EU and the implications. Yes that will cost them billion, thousands are likely to die due to it and it will cause a lot of pain and ramp up racist tendencies which will take a long time to heal. However I also think it's the only way they will ever get through their heads how deeply they been lied to is to go through that and find out the lies told over the decades. It's the only way for the voter base to see the reality of things and see beyond the "Lulz UK is a Empire all want our goods" view that is predominant today. In the long term that is the only real positive effect of a hard brexit; the fact they need to deal with all the lies and BS they been feed for ages.

Itssoeasy · 09-07-2018 4:00pm

It's a feisty House of Commons. Teresa may came back swinging after Jeremy Corbyn has his say.

Larbre34 · 09-07-2018 4:14pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It's a feisty House of Commons. Teresa may came back swinging after Jeremy Corbyn has his say.

But not on the issue.

Itssoeasy · 09-07-2018 4:17pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It's a feisty House of Commons. Teresa may came back swinging after Jeremy Corbyn has his say.

But not on the issue.

Well yeah fair point but she couldn't just sit there and not say anything. Swinging and missing is better than not swinging.

LeinsterDub · 09-07-2018 4:17pm

They said: "If she doesn't drop Chequers there will be another, then another, then another, then another".

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44771475

Surely Gove is the only one of note left?

dudara · 09-07-2018 4:17pm

There had been a covenant of sorts in the Tory party that no one would challenge for the leadership until 2019, as no one wanted the poisoned chalice of being the Brexit PM. I wonder how all that will play out now, the timeline is getting tighter every day, and the risks are growing even greater.

Penn · 09-07-2018 4:19pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

How is it her worst decision? All these people desire the top job. Getting it is the prize, and then holding onto it for as long as possible. Extraordinary times gave her a shot she otherwise would have been unlikely to receive. Had Remain carried the referendum, Cameron would still likely be PM facing off Corbyn on social / economic issues in the UK.

As it is, she is fixed in history forever, the second female Prime Minister ever and one who will have her contributions and period in charge analysed by Political commentators and students long after she's dead. That's what these people live for.

It was the prize they aspire to, but at the wrong time, knowing she would have to try and negotiate and deliver a Brexit that she herself didn't believe in and didn't believe it was in the best interests of the country.

I don't think any of them live for being a bad PM, which Theresa May will likely go down as given the absolute failure so far of the Brexit negotiations, her hubris in calling a General Election and losing their majority, and especially if in the coming weeks she is ousted by her own party.

I know they all aspire to the top job and to go down in history, but knowing the country was facing the challenge that was/is Brexit and not believing in it before the referendum, it was the wrong move for her at the wrong time. She should have waited until post-Brexit, however it ended up, and made her move at that stage. As a Remainer, she simply should not have gone for the position after the Leave vote won.

Professor Moriarty · 09-07-2018 4:20pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44771475

Surely Gove is the only one of note left?

Personally, I think Fox will go next. Gove went on TV on Sunday defending May and her Chequers deal so I can't see how he could resign with any credibility. Which means he could well resign, of course.

09-07-2018 4:20pm

She's coming across well but there are too many paradoxes in the plans. And the BBC is ages behind and makes her look like a ghost compared to the live stream on partiamentlive.tv.

I was expecting her to be flailing more.

kunst nugget · 09-07-2018 4:22pm

Nody wrote: »

Which if you excuse me being cruel here is the best possible outcome for all parties. Now here's the cruel part; UK needs to go through a steel bath to shed the current leadership (both parties) and lies of EU and the implications. Yes that will cost them billion, thousands are likely to die due to it and it will cause a lot of pain and ramp up racist tendencies which will take a long time to heal. However I also think it's the only way they will ever get through their heads how deeply they been lied to is to go through that and find out the lies told over the decades. It's the only way for the voter base to see the reality of things and see beyond the "Lulz UK is a Empire all want our goods" view that is predominant today. In the long term that is the only real positive effect of a hard brexit; the fact they need to deal with all the lies and BS they been feed for ages.

The problem is that there's a lot of people in Britain that don't think like that all that are going to be massively impacted by a hard Brexit. I wouldn't feel the need to say 'Good enough for you!' to these people who are going to suffer for someone else's ideology.

Infini · 09-07-2018 4:23pm

The Purge: Downing Street.

Bout the only way to describe this. It's been needed for a long time but the illogical headbangers need to be pushed out, they have 0 interest in peoples wellbeing only their illogical BS and this honestly should've happened sooner.

Now comes the moment of truth. If the Bullshyteers are sidelined then there's hope that this mess can be brought to an end. A total discrediting of their ideas is the only way to end their carryon once and for all. If they win out then when the shyte hits the fan they'll be remembered as the fools who ended the UK.

Harika · 09-07-2018 4:24pm

dudara wrote: »

There had been a covenant of sorts in the Tory party that no one would challenge for the leadership until 2019, as no one wanted the poisoned chalice of being the Brexit PM. I wonder how all that will play out now, the timeline is getting tighter every day, and the risks are growing even greater.

Election, let Labour be Brexit PM. Claim the mess was Labour not the Torries and at the next election get the PM back.

seamus · 09-07-2018 4:26pm

dudara wrote: »

There had been a covenant of sorts in the Tory party that no one would challenge for the leadership until 2019, as no one wanted the poisoned chalice of being the Brexit PM. I wonder how all that will play out now, the timeline is getting tighter every day, and the risks are growing even greater.

Maybe double-down; hand the reins to Labour and let Jeremy be the captain of the sinking ship?

At this stage I don't think any UK government can save the UK and themselves. Try to withdraw Brexit, or push through a really soft Brexit, and the tabloid press will savage you and call you a traitor, even if you do save the UK economy.
Bull and go with a hard Brexit, the UK economy tanks, and you're the guy who couldn't make it work, you're the overseer of the worst UK economy in centuries.

In the short-to-medium term, it's lose-lose for whoever has the PM's seat in the UK. I thought the chalice couldn't get any more poison than when May lifted it...but here we are.

Leroy42 · 09-07-2018 4:32pm

Infini wrote: »

Now comes the moment of truth. If the Bullshyteers are sidelined then there's hope that this mess can be brought to an end. A total discrediting of their ideas is the only way to end their carryon once and for all. If they win out then when the shyte hits the fan they'll be remembered as the fools who ended the UK.

The new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, is a Brexiteer.

In an interview a fortnight ago, Raab said he supported a “full-fat Brexit” but “never said there weren’t risks with Brexit”.

“The truth is, there are risks and there are rewards; there are risks and there are opportunities,” he told the House magazine. “So, yes, let’s take the risks seriously. I don’t want to be cavalier about that. But let’s also grasp the opportunities. If we do that and we show a team effort, then this country will go on to bigger, better things.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/dominic-raab-appointed-new-brexit-secretary-in-uk-cabinet-reshuffle

Beechwoodspark · 09-07-2018 4:39pm

Gove stoutly defended the proposal on tv yest so if he resigned today he would look absolutely idiotic. But then...this is Michael Gove we are talking about. So it’s all relative.