Brexit discussion thread IV

LuckyLloyd

Enzokk wrote: »

That is why it will seem like we keep going in circles because the UK government haven't caught up to this fact yet, IMO.

That (excellent post) and the UK still doesn't understand the timetable and order of negotiations and continues to think they are negotiating the future relationship rather than the withdrawal agreement. Sad!

LuckyLloyd

Larbre34 wrote: »

Why does Theresa May think € 39 billion is an effective ransom for the EU?

Yes, it wouldn't be ideal and would require a reprioritisation of the medium term budget, but the EU would still be an €18 trillion economy as well as some nations absorbing a boost from repatriated UK investment (after the initial shock of no deal fades) and would move on within a few years. Meanwhile the UK would be toying with the dark ages and the collapse of manufacturing, the NHS and the welfare state.

For some Brexiteers, that is no doubt the objective

Anthracite

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

David Trimble on Newsnight claiming that the only threat to peace is that posed by the prospect of the North remaining in a CU/SM arrangement. A subtle threat?

That's interesting logic. Keeping the status quo in NI (which NI voted for) is more likely to cause Loyalist terrorism than upending the status quo is likely to cause Republican terrorism.

He might be right, but it certainly doesn't reflect well on his tribe.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

David Trimble on Newsnight claiming that the only threat to peace is that posed by the prospect of the North remaining in a CU/SM arrangement. A subtle threat?

I would imagine the sigh of relief in his community would be seismic if the north remains.

mayo.mick

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1040002377535942657

Capt'n Midnight

Scallop negotiations end with no deal, say fishing leaders

France's agriculture minister Stéphane Travert said he regretted that the talks had ended without consensus.

He said the French fishermen had proposed reasonably compensation to smaller UK vessels in return for them delaying their entry into the Bay of Seine.

This is crazy.

In 198 days those UK fishermen might be banned from all EU waters, if the UK doesn't get a Brexit deal. Now is not the time to stir up French nationalism. The UK government should have slipped the fishermen a few quid to make this all go away.

Capt'n Midnight

British Owned Car Companies.
Morgan Motor Company Ltd
Caterham Cars Ltd
Mclaren Automotive

The rest are only Made in Britain. So less reasons to stay. Now whether you think they are fishing for grants or not, it's a LOT of jobs to gamble.

a hard Brexit will cost Jaguar Land Rover more than £1.2bn a year - it's horrifying, wiping our profit, destroying investment ...

He said that if poor UK productivity worsened after Brexit, he would be forced to move manufacturing to somewhere such as Poland, where it was cheaper to make cars.

About a quarter of a million people in the UK rely directly, or indirectly, on the success of his company, Mr Speth said.

Strazdas

Spook_ie wrote: »

Given the use of Article 7 against Hungary, will they be the next to invoke Article 50 if they feel the EU is bullying them?

Are the bookies running anything?

Leave the EU and the Single Market to join what exactly?? There is no rival Single Market and Customs Union in Europe for them to join. They would effectively be committing economic suicide by ripping up all their EU trade deals.

Peregrinus

Spook_ie wrote: »

Given the use of Article 7 against Hungary, will they be the next to invoke Article 50 if they feel the EU is bullying them?

Opinion polls show strong support for EU membership in Hungary, and there is negligible support for an exit referendum. Obviously opinions might harden somewhat if Art. 7 is invoked and Hungary is subject to any actual measures, but many Hungarians would blame Orban for this, not the EU. EU membership has been and continues to be enormously beneficial to Hungary, and even Hungarian critics of the EU want to see it reformed; they don't want Hungary to leave.

Indeed, the threat of Art. 7 measures worries Hungarians precisely because participation in the EU is so beneficial to them.

Nody

mayo.mick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1040002377535942657

I honestly think this may be intentional and the reason being that if they are going to "roll over" agreements agreed in EUR they are going to have an easier time than if they go for a GBP rate (which is likely to fluctuate greatly compared to what ever exchange rate they pick, current, average etc.). For me the big question mark would be on the origin piece of the tariffs (i.e. the tariffs would refer to the origin percentage being EU if they changed that to UK or left it as EU or UK + EU or something like that 'cause EU would be very upset if they get included in the origin part).

judeboy101

Anthracite wrote: »

That's interesting logic. Keeping the status quo in NI (which NI voted for) is more likely to cause Loyalist terrorism than upending the status quo is likely to cause Republican terrorism.

He might be right, but it certainly doesn't reflect well on his tribe.

The unionist terrorist network was effectively built on ruc/military intelligence support at all levels. I can't see them getting back to anything like those levels now.

Infini

judeboy101 wrote: »

The unionist terrorist network was effectively built on ruc/military intelligence support at all levels. I can't see them getting back to anything like those levels now.

Pretty much this. The most we can expect out of the worst loyalist headbangers is a few riots at worst. Otherwise theyre facing going against the majority who vote in favour of it. Id say theyd likely move over to England afterwards if they really dont like being in a UI rather than resort to pointless terrorism. The UVA and that were propped up by the British state unlike the IRA which was a guerella organisation fueled out of the supression and discrimination of the Nationalist community for year.

mrbrianj

Infini wrote: »

Pretty much this. The most we can expect out of the worst loyalist headbangers is a few riots at worst. Otherwise theyre facing going against the majority who vote in favour of it. Id say theyd likely move over to England afterwards if they really dont like being in a UI rather than resort to pointless terrorism. The UVA and that were propped up by the British state unlike the IRA which was a guerella organisation fueled out of the supression and discrimination of the Nationalist community for year.

with the EU looking at rewriting the backstop, tory lies & fantasy being pumped out by ERG - it feels like its heading for a hard border but a soft(ish) brexit

Sam Russell

So now TM is threatening to not pay the €45 billion liabilities agreed in December. I think that if this is carried through, the queues of trucks at Dover will clog not only the M2, M20, M25 but possibly the M1, M40< M4 and all roads in between.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-uk-will-not-pay-39bn-bill-if-there-is-no-brexit-deal-1.3627975

Irish Times

Brexit: UK ‘will not pay’ £39bn bill if there is no Brexit deal
Downing Street releasing new raft of post-Brexit advice papers


The UK will not pay its £39 billion (€44 billion) “divorce bill” to Brussels if there is no overall deal on its departure form the EU, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has insisted.

The comments came after British Prime Minister Theresa May made it clear Britain would rethink its agreement to pay the exit settlement in full if it did not achieve an arrangement on future trading relations.

I think they are poisoning the negotiations in the hope of bolstering support in the run up to the Tory Party conference. After that, there might be a complete change of attitude. No way will the EU allow the planes to fly, or the trucks to move, in the event of such a move.

We shall see.

First Up

Infini wrote:

Pretty much this. The most we can expect out of the worst loyalist headbangers is a few riots at worst. Otherwise theyre facing going against the majority who vote in favour of it. Id say theyd likely move over to England afterwards if they really dont like being in a UI rather than resort to pointless terrorism. The UVA and that were propped up by the British state unlike the IRA which was a guerella organisation fueled out of the supression and discrimination of the Nationalist community for year.

I think you are grossly underestimating the scale of resistance and civil disobedience that would result.

I have no desire whatever to have that landed on the government and people of ROI. It is a distant and remote prospect at best anyway and I hope it stays like that.

Imreoir2

First Up wrote: »

I think you are grossly underestimating the scale of resistance and civil disobedience that would result.

I have no desire whatever to have that landed on the government and people of ROI. It is a distant and remote prospect at best anyway and I hope it stays like that.

With Brexit mere months away, and polls showing a majority in favour of Unification if Brexit happens, then I would not agree that it is a remote prospect.

First Up

Imreoir2 wrote:

With Brexit mere months away, and polls showing a majority in favour of Unification if Brexit happens, then I would not agree that it is a remote prospect.

There is a long way to travel from a "what if" opinion poll to re-shaping countries.

Zubeneschamali

Sam Russell wrote: »

So now TM is threatening to not pay the €45 billion liabilities agreed in December.

As usual, Raab and May are talking to the Tory party, not really talking to Europe.

Sam Russell

First Up wrote: »

There is a long way to travel from a "what if" opinion poll to re-shaping countries.

One 'what if' that comes into sharp focus is if there is a hard border. That is when a UI also comes into sharp focus.

Bigus

First Up wrote: »

I think you are grossly underestimating the scale of resistance and civil disobedience that would result.

I have no desire whatever to have that landed on the government and people of ROI. It is a distant and remote prospect at best anyway and I hope it stays like that.

It might be an opportune time, for us to finally Lance this 100 year old boil for once and for all , after all didn't Michael Collins do the exact same the last time the British were distracted by the Germans, except the republic would now get the support of all the EU, along with the yanks.

There's great logic in some old sayings and as regards Brexit perhaps

" be careful what you wish for "

couldn't be more apt for Little Englanders.

lawred2

First Up wrote: »

I think you are grossly underestimating the scale of resistance and civil disobedience that would result.

I have no desire whatever to have that landed on the government and people of ROI. It is a distant and remote prospect at best anyway and I hope it stays like that.

I think you are grossly overestimating the scale of resistance and civil disobedience that would result.

There will always be some.

But in the main - people instinctively want to live in peace and provide for their families.

Water John

TM will end up having to give NI the option of staying in the CU. She can dress it up any way she likes. She has to face down the DUP and tell them it's democracy for the people of NI. Not sure what spoof she can tell the Scots.

If on the off chance we end up moving towards a UI, then the political structures that facilitate that will mean a major reorganisation of how we do that. Major Regional Govn't Structures would be key. Maybe back to 5 provinces.

trellheim

well we always knew they would not pay the 39 billion if they didn't get a deal, that is just 'rabble rabble' heading into conference.

All that matters is Steve Baker's twitter feed right now as the best view into the centre of the whirlpool as if he's not behind it, whatever it is will fail as he controls enough MPs to kill anything.

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW



See this for example yesterday from Theresa Villiers


https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/09/theresa-villiers-the-ergs-solution-to-the-irish-border-question-opens-the-door-to-a-wide-ranging-free-trade-agreement.html

(i.e. ERG = right answer ) ( of course its massive cobblers but it correctly zooms on the border being the massive blockage )

Edit : Link to ERG solution for NI https://brexitcentral.com/european-research-group-publishes-guide-keeping-irish-border-invisible-post-brexit/ if you click through to the PDF it was only posted yesterday.

Rhineshark

Water John wrote: »

TM will end up having to give NI the option of staying in the CU. She can dress it up any way she likes. She has to face down the DUP and tell them it's democracy for the people of NI. Not sure what spoof she can tell the Scots.

If on the off chance we end up moving towards a UI, then the political structures that facilitate that will mean a major reorganisation of how we do that. Major Regional Govn't Structures would be key. Maybe back to 5 provinces.

Asking the Scots if they really want a hard land border suddenly plonked across their border with England and giving a litany of the issues with the NI border might do it. May not have the social issues, but all the practical economic ones apply.

seamus

First Up wrote: »

I think you are grossly underestimating the scale of resistance and civil disobedience that would result.

I have no desire whatever to have that landed on the government and people of ROI. It is a distant and remote prospect at best anyway and I hope it stays like that.

The more ridiculous Brexit becomes, the more it will appear to the people of NI that they've hitched themselves to a sinking ship.

In a matter of months, various polls are showing support for a post-Brexit united Ireland on the continuous up. Voters in NI are becoming aware that not only will Brexit absolutely screw them, but that Great Britain doesn't care. Something stupid like 70% of leave voters in Britain would rather break up the UK than keep it together, so long as they can still leave the EU.

United Ireland support has gone from 35-40% in the polls to 50-55% in a timespan of about 6 months.

As lawred points out, it's all about the economy. People want to be able to provide for their families. Come next March and the possibility that the UK might be completely locked out of the EU (based on today's threats), support for a UI could be 60%+.

There will always be a tiny cohort of loyalists who would rather NI was gouged from the planet and thrown into the sun, than contemplate leaving the UK. But the majority just want a simple life, a home and a job.

listermint

In a nutshell,

Earn money, live, have their families happy and get on with in peace.


No one wants the 70/80s back. No one.

Peregrinus

Rhineshark wrote: »

Asking the Scots if they really want a hard land border suddenly plonked across their border with England and giving a litany of the issues with the NI border might do it. May not have the social issues, but all the practical economic ones apply.

It would be a completely different kettle of fish. On the one hand, the Scots have a much shorter border, with many fewer crossing points, considerably further removed from their major centres of population than is the case for NI. And many fewer of their people live near the border or would be socially affected if it became a regulatory border.

On the other hand, while I have seen no figures for the volume of trade passing over the English/Scottish border, I'd hazard a guess that it's a lot bigger than the volume of trade passing over the Irish border.

The important thing, though, is not the absolute volume of trade, but the relative proportions of Scotland's trade with England, and Scotland's trade with the EU -27. Essentially the Scots would have to choose (a) restrictions on their EU trade as a result of Brexit-related tariffs and regulatory controls, or (b) similar restrictions on their English trade. Which would cost them less? It would be a harm minimisation exercise.

First Up

lawred2 wrote:

I think you are grossly overestimating the scale of resistance and civil disobedience that would result.

There will always be some.

But in the main - people instinctively want to live in peace and provide for their families.

Do Sunningdale and the Ulster Workers Council ring any bells?

Unionists hate the Irish Republic more than they love the UK. They will look first to London and then even to Brussels to compensate them for losses arising from Brexit. They will roar in protest at any border procedures on the Irish sea but will grudgingly put up with them if it protects their financial interests. That is a thousand times preferable to a UI.

All of those would have to go horribly wrong before a UI was seriously on the agenda. You would then need enough parties running on a UI platform and enough people to elect them to get a majority in the NI assembly.

Even in that highly unlikely event, Westminster would have to agree (think how long it took for Scotland).

And even if a majority voted for UI there would be enough of a threat of a UWC type of resistance to make integrating the two systems well nigh impossible.

Brussels meanwhile will stay out. The EU will do all it can to smooth the ROI's (and NI's) post Brexit situation will it will not interfere in internal UK politics.

There's far more chance of creating the other OWC - "Our Wee Country" - than the political, logistical, financial and social nightmare of a United Ireland.

Havockk

First Up wrote: »

the Ulster Workers Council

The UWC was simultaneously the pinnacle of Unionist/Loyalist force in the North and it's greatest mistake. They played the only card they had and once they did the UK govt could no longer tolerate that sheer power. So they dismantled it.

The UWC could never happen again, and loyalism is a shadow of itself, not in saying that mind you they were (the paramilitaries) much of anything other than street level criminals to begin with.

listermint

First Up wrote: »

Do Sunningdale and the Ulster Workers Council ring any bells?

Unionists hate the Irish Republic more than they love the UK. They will look first to London and then even to Brussels to compensate them for losses arising from Brexit. They will roar in protest at any border procedures on the Irish sea but will grudgingly put up with them if it protects their financial interests. That is a thousand times preferable to a UI.

All of those would have to go horribly wrong before a UI was seriously on the agenda. You would then need enough parties running on a UI platform and enough people to elect them to get a majority in the NI assembly.

Even in that highly unlikely event, Westminster would have to agree (think how long it took for Scotland).

And even if a majority voted for UI there would be enough of a threat of a UWC type of resistance to make integrating the two systems well nigh impossible.

Brussels meanwhile will stay out. The EU will do all it can to smooth the ROI's (and NI's) post Brexit situation will it will not interfere in internal UK politics.

There's far more chance of creating the other OWC - "Our Wee Country" - than the political, logistical, financial and social nightmare of a United Ireland.

I dont see what a union has to do with 2018 are you emplying that their power was so vast back in the day that they will flex it now ?

where were these unions on the Brexit Referendum vote ? Did they flex their muscles then ?