Brexit discussion thread IV

First Up

listermint wrote:

where were these unions on the Brexit Referendum vote ? Did they flex their muscles then ?

Nothing to get them flexed about.

listermint

First Up wrote: »

Nothing to get them flexed about.

Surely there was, exiting from the EU would remove funding for numerous projects, constructions. Community excercises.

Are you saying they had no position on it ?

Do you know ? or just naming unions that can possibly impact because they did 30 years ago

Havockk

First Up wrote: »

Nothing to get them flexed about.

Unionism has flexed its muscle twice in recent history. On both occasions they tried to relive what they managed to pull off in 74. Drumcree in 98 and then the Flag protests in 2012. Drumcree came closest but they ended up alienating much of their now moderate support. In 2012 they had an extremely poor showing which is testament to the steady decline in the intervening years.

Zubeneschamali

Water John wrote: »

Not sure what spoof she can tell the Scots.

She can say what she likes, they'll be busy packing their bags to head beack into the EU.

First Up

listermint wrote: »

Surely there was, exiting from the EU would remove funding for numerous projects, constructions. Community excercises.

Are you saying they had no position on it ?

Do you know ? or just naming unions that can possibly impact because they did 30 years ago

The Brexit referendum was an individual matter across the whole UK. The DUP campaigned for a Leave but nobody knew what the overall outcome would be.

Moves towards a united Ireland would be a very different matter and I would expect all sorts of stuff to emerge from the woodwork.

I think a vote on a UI is about as likely as a referendum on EU membership in the Republic. The whole subject is a distraction and side show. Our focus should be on how we minimise the damage from Brexit (there will be some) and on how we make the most of it.

listermint

Ah the figures from the UK Government for regional impact Post Brexit.

NI looks super duper healthy

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1040201931342405637

listermint

First Up wrote: »

The Brexit referendum was an individual matter across the whole UK. The DUP campaigned for a Leave but nobody knew what the overall outcome would be.

Moves towards a united Ireland would be a very different matter and I would expect all sorts of stuff to emerge from the woodwork.

I think a vote on a UI is about as likely as a referendum on EU membership in the Republic. The whole subject is a distraction and side show. Our focus should be on how we minimise the damage from Brexit (there will be some) and on how we make the most of it.

See my post above,


Your use of the word 'some' is laughable . Considering all the facts.

seamus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

She can say what she likes, they'll be busy packing their bags to head beack into the EU.

In all seriousness, what is the metric by which a "nation" is measured?

So, we can say that if NI joined ROI, that territory becomes EU by default, because ROI is.

What about Scotland? What is the minimum political framework that would be required for Scotland to "join" Ireland and become an EU member by default?

Would it require a declaration of a single parliamentary government for the entire territory (with or without some form of devolution), or is it simply a matter of whether other nations recognise it?

More a thinking point really. If anything, Scotland would be more likely to declare independence, use the Euro as their currency and seek to fast-track EFTA membership and a customs union with the EU, as a precursor to the longer process of full EU membership.

Zubeneschamali

First Up wrote: »

I think a vote on a UI is about as likely as a referendum on EU membership in the Republic. The whole subject is a distraction and side show. Our focus should be on how we minimise the damage from Brexit (there will be some) and on how we make the most of it.

I don't think a UI vote is likely anytime soon. SF are notably quiet about it.

But if NI takes a 12% direct GDP hit from brexit in the next few years while the Republic grows 12%, and then Westminster starts dialling back its subsidies to NI further (because shock! who knew Brexit would cost them so much?), a UI will look better and better.

In 10 years time, a UI could look very inviting indeed.

Zubeneschamali

seamus wrote: »

If anything, Scotland would be more likely to declare independence, use the Euro as their currency and seek to fast-track EFTA membership and a customs union with the EU, as a precursor to the longer process of full EU membership.

If they start the process before the Brexit transition period ends,they could argue that they should not have to leave at all.

First Up

listermint wrote:

Your use of the word 'some' is laughable . Considering all the facts.

I was talking about our economy. Of course the UK will be damaged; its the collateral damage that concerns me.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

In 10 years time, a UI could look very inviting indeed.

On some levels yes but the Unionist opposition to it is visceral.

Havockk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think a UI vote is likely anytime soon. SF are notably quiet about it.

But if NI takes a 12% direct GDP hit from brexit in the next few years while the Republic grows 12%, and then Westminster starts dialling back its subsidies to NI further (because shock! who knew Brexit would cost them so much?), a UI will look better and better.

In 10 years time, a UI could look very inviting indeed.

Expect the SF line to change post March next year. There have been signals to get teh base warmed up. Not to mention it also makes sense to wait util things bite more harshly. A poll within 2 years could happen.

Trasna1

Water John wrote: »

TM will end up having to give NI the option of staying in the CU. She can dress it up any way she likes. She has to face down the DUP and tell them it's democracy for the people of NI. Not sure what spoof she can tell the Scots.

If on the off chance we end up moving towards a UI, then the political structures that facilitate that will mean a major reorganisation of how we do that. Major Regional Govn't Structures would be key. Maybe back to 5 provinces.

I imagine we'd be looking at a Hong Kong type solution, where the Irish government would effectively leave the devolved administration in place for 50 years.

I could also envision large numbers of unionists leaving, perhaps facilitated by the UK and resettling in Scotland. I could see the UK going for this as this would help counter rising nationalism in Scotland

Imreoir2

First Up wrote: »

The Brexit referendum was an individual matter across the whole UK. The DUP campaigned for a Leave but nobody knew what the overall outcome would be.

Moves towards a united Ireland would be a very different matter and I would expect all sorts of stuff to emerge from the woodwork.

I think a vote on a UI is about as likely as a referendum on EU membership in the Republic. The whole subject is a distraction and side show. Our focus should be on how we minimise the damage from Brexit (there will be some) and on how we make the most of it.

Support for Ireland leaving the EU is somewhere around 8%
Support for a UI in Northern Ireland is somewhere between 40 - 56%.
A referendum on unification must be held if there is evidence that a majority might support it. So sure, both of those things are equally as likely.

Water John

Well if the Scots wanted to or were to remain in the EU then all sorts of political structures could be considered. Joint soverignty of NI between ROI and Scotland, since they are largely Scots Irish.
Some over arching political structure for all 3 countries. I'm sure the EU would be very accommodating.

Imreoir2

Water John wrote: »

Well if the Scots wanted to or were to remain in the EU then all sorts of political structures could be considered. Joint soverignty of NI between ROI and Scotland, since they are largely Scots Irish.
Some over arching political structure for all 3 countries. I'm sure the EU would be very accommodating.

Joint Soverignty over NI, be it between Ireland and the UK, or Ireland and an Independant Scotland, is ruled out in the GFA.

I don't think there is any appitite for a joint Irish/Scotish political Union either in Scotland or Ireland.

Rhineshark

Peregrinus wrote: »

It would be a completely different kettle of fish. On the one hand, the Scots have a much shorter border, with many fewer crossing points, considerably further removed from their major centres of population than is the case for NI. And many fewer of their people live near the border or would be socially affected if it became a regulatory border.

On the other hand, while I have seen no figures for the volume of trade passing over the English/Scottish border, I'd hazard a guess that it's a lot bigger than the volume of trade passing over the Irish border.

The important thing, though, is not the absolute volume of trade, but the relative proportions of Scotland's trade with England, and Scotland's trade with the EU -27. Essentially the Scots would have to choose (a) restrictions on their EU trade as a result of Brexit-related tariffs and regulatory controls, or (b) similar restrictions on their English trade. Which would cost them less? It would be a harm minimisation exercise.

True to the above and fair enough regarding how many people live near the border (would you know what it tends to be like in the English side in terms of pop density?), but I would raise that there hasn't been a border there in generations. If people managed to build straddling the border over the past few decades in Ireland, I would be rather surprised if they've managed to keep it delineated in Britain over centuries.

Rhineshark

Trasna1 wrote: »

I imagine we'd be looking at a Hong Kong type solution, where the Irish government would effectively leave the devolved administration in place for 50 years.

I could also envision large numbers of unionists leaving, perhaps facilitated by the UK and resettling in Scotland. I could see the UK going for this as this would help counter rising nationalism in Scotland

And plantations come full circle!

Although while they are (mostly, roughly) descended from Scots planters, that was a long time ago now. Is there any real pro-Scotland feeling amongst Unionists as an "ancient homeland" that would allow for people making that decision?

I could admittedly see Westminster encouraging it.

Imreoir2

Rhineshark wrote: »

And plantations come full circle!

Although while they are (mostly, roughly) descended from Scots planters, that was a long time ago now. Is there any real pro-Scotland feeling amongst Unionists as an "ancient homeland" that would allow for people making that decision?

I could admittedly see Westminster encouraging it.

There is some cultural links with the Ulster-Scots identity.

In the event of a United Ireland, some individuals will presumably make the choice to move to the remainder of the UK, be that to Scotland or England/Wales, but that should be a choice for the individual to make, not state policy. There should not be a push from the Irish state, or a pull from the British state to transfer population. Rather it should be a priority to ensure that those who consider themselves to be British are accomodated in the new Ireland and can live their lives without feeling pressure to leave their homes.

Spook_ie

Bigus wrote: »

It might be an opportune time, for us to finally Lance this 100 year old boil for once and for all , after all didn't Michael Collins do the exact same the last time the British were distracted by the Germans, except the republic would now get the support of all the EU, along with the yanks.

There's great logic in some old sayings and as regards Brexit perhaps

" be careful what you wish for "

couldn't be more apt for Little Englanders.

Didn't he die in 1922, the last German distraction would have been 1939-45

EdgeCase

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There is some cultural links with the Ulster-Scots identity.

In the event of a United Ireland, some individuals will presumably make the choice to move to the remainder of the UK, be that to Scotland or England/Wales, but that should be a choice for the individual to make, not state policy. There should not be a push from the Irish state, or a pull from the British state to transfer population. Rather it should be a priority to ensure that those who consider themselves to be British are accomodated in the new Ireland and can live their lives without feeling pressure to leave their homes.

Well, I would assume that they'd just be entitled to remain British much as Irish people in the UK can remain Irish and British people in the Republic can remain British today without any impediments at all really. We could just extend the voting rights further to include the presidency and referenda for those resident here. It already covers Dail and other elections.

If you're Irish in Britain or British in Ireland you're a status other than 'alien'. I think you'd just have to extend something like that to the unionist population in Northern Ireland in perpetuity. The counter side of it is that it would mean that Irish people in Britain can continue to be Irish in perpetuity too.

There are ways around these things, should a UI ever happen.

It certainly won't be some kind of a move that would attempt to remove the unionist communities' identities. There's no way you'll see anything like that happening in this day and age. There's huge understanding of the sensitivities and cultural side of identity these days.

Some kind of federal Ireland might end up being the way forward on that. You could also devolve some of the other provinces too while you're at it and create a better system of government.

Rhineshark

Spook_ie wrote: »

Didn't he die in 1922, the last German distraction would have been 1939-45

To be fair though, the German (sorta, amongst others) distraction before that was a rather large one and in the right period.

Infini

First Up wrote: »

I think a vote on a UI is about as likely as a referendum on EU membership in the Republic. The whole subject is a distraction and side show. Our focus should be on how we minimise the damage from Brexit (there will be some) and on how we make the most of it.

I'm gonna stop you right here on this. The chance of Ireland leaving the EU is extremely remote. The Irexit Group from the other day is a Brexiteer front of those who arent just satifoed wrecking their own country but trying to wreck ours. Fortunately theyre as likely to float as well as a lead balloon.

On the other hand Brexit itseelf is the catalyst for a UI the whole issue was frozen because both countries being in the EU negated the issue and left it a romantic notion. Brexit changes this because a Hard Brexit will utterly devastate the region. This is the game changer because the people are being made to suffer financial losses for the sake of Little Englander politicians who give no damn as to the wellbeing of the whole UK.

Should Hard Brexit happen and they crash out which is very likely considering the fools in the British government right now and the UI option becomes the defacto mitigation option as it undoes a huge amount of the potential damage causes by this.

Infini

Havockk wrote: »

Expect the SF line to change post March next year. There have been signals to get teh base warmed up. Not to mention it also makes sense to wait util things bite more harshly. A poll within 2 years could happen.

The shinners are using the perfect crisis situation and not letting it go to waste to achieve their reason for existence. Why get involved now when their DUP advesaries not only supported Brexit but will own the entire problem when Hard Brexit kicks in. They oversaw a policy that wrecks NI and made UI a live option!

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There is some cultural links with the Ulster-Scots identity.

In the event of a United Ireland, some individuals will presumably make the choice to move to the remainder of the UK, be that to Scotland or England/Wales, but that should be a choice for the individual to make, not state policy. There should not be a push from the Irish state, or a pull from the British state to transfer population. Rather it should be a priority to ensure that those who consider themselves to be British are accomodated in the new Ireland and can live their lives without feeling pressure to leave their homes.

I doubt people will feel pressured to leave. If anything Ireland would be the 2nd country after Germany to reunify and I could see the EU look to invest serious funds into the whole country and NI to make it sucess.

Imreoir2

Residents of UK, including residents of NI who hold a UK driving licence will need to apply for an International Driving Licence in addition to their UK Driving Licence if they wish to drive in the EU (including driving south of the border) after a no-deal Brexit. People who hold a Driving Licence from an EU member state will continue to be allowed to drive in the UK without needing an International Driving Licence. This is according to the preparedness notice on Driving in the EU if there's no Brexit deal, issued by the British Government today. This notice states that should an EU national move to the UK, their driving licence will continue to be recognised for up to three years after they move to the UK.

One wonders if we will see a spate of people from NI applying to exchange their UK Driving Licence for an Irish Driving Licience as this would allow them to drive in the UK and the EU after a No-Deal Brexit?

An Ciarraioch

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Residents of UK, including residents of NI who hold a UK driving licence will need to apply for an International Driving Licence in addition to their UK Driving Licence if they wish to drive in the EU (including driving south of the border) after a no-deal Brexit. People who hold a Driving Licence from an EU member state will continue to be allowed to drive in the UK without needing an International Driving Licence. This is according to the preparedness notice on Driving in the EU if there's no Brexit deal, issued by the British Government today. This notice states that should an EU national move to the UK, their driving licence will continue to be recognised for up to three years after they move to the UK.

One wonders if we will see a spate of people from NI applying to exchange their UK Driving Licence for an Irish Driving Licience as this would allow them to drive in the UK and the EU after a No-Deal Brexit?

Hmm, appears they either would have to be resident in the Republic for 185 days per year, or have "family" (presumably parents and/or siblings) South of the Border, so very few would actually qualify for one:

http://borderpeople.info/a-z/driving-licences-in-ireland.html

brickster69

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Residents of UK, including residents of NI who hold a UK driving licence will need to apply for an International Driving Licence in addition to their UK Driving Licence if they wish to drive in the EU (including driving south of the border) after a no-deal Brexit. People who hold a Driving Licence from an EU member state will continue to be allowed to drive in the UK without needing an International Driving Licence. This is according to the preparedness notice on Driving in the EU if there's no Brexit deal, issued by the British Government today. This notice states that should an EU national move to the UK, their driving licence will continue to be recognised for up to three years after they move to the UK.

One wonders if we will see a spate of people from NI applying to exchange their UK Driving Licence for an Irish Driving Licience as this would allow them to drive in the UK and the EU after a No-Deal Brexit?

[font=arial, sans-serif]International Driving Permits [/font][font=arial, sans-serif]cost[/font][font=arial, sans-serif] £5.50 / year and you can get them in any Post Office.[/font]

Capt'n Midnight

brickster69 wrote: »

[font=arial, sans-serif]International Driving Permits [/font][font=arial, sans-serif]cost[/font][font=arial, sans-serif] £5.50 / year and you can get them in any Post Office.[/font]

Any one of 90 out of 11,547 post offices and subject to availability.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45512152

There are two types of permit, depending on which EU state you are driving in. The government says the current process for getting one type of permit over the counter at the 90 post offices it is available at "takes around five minutes on a turn-up-and-go basis".

It says it will start providing both types permits itself from February and applications will be made at 2,500 post offices across the UK.