Brexit discussion thread IV

ancapailldorcha

On the subject of the DUP, what exactly is their motivation for supporting Brexit? If I wanted to just throw out an easy explanation, it would be to create a barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic with extra funding from Westminster making up for any shortfall. But that's surely too easy, isn't it?

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the subject of the DUP, what exactly is their motivation for supporting Brexit? If I wanted to just throw out an easy explanation, it would be to create a barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic with extra funding from Westminster making up for any shortfall. But that's surely too easy, isn't it?

I think the general assumption is that they, like most people thought it would never happen. Supporting Brexit was a way to get some easy money and played well with their hardliners.

They continue to support Brexit because they can hardily do a U-Turn on it now, and they are infatuated with their control over the UK government. They presumably think that they can still win a border poll come what may and as such have very little reason to care what happens to the NI economey.

ancapailldorcha

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think the general assumption is that they, like most people thought it would never happen. Supporting Brexit was a way to get some easy money and played well with their hardliners.

They continue to support Brexit because they can hardily do a U-Turn on it now, and they are infatuated with their control over the UK government. They presumably think that they can still win a border poll come what may and as such have very little reason to care what happens to the NI economey.

But the mad thing is that farmers are supposed to be a core component of the DUP vote. They're likely to suffer very badly. I know that the usual strategy of blaming the EU will be applied regardless but that can only be stretched so far.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the subject of the DUP, what exactly is their motivation for supporting Brexit? If I wanted to just throw out an easy explanation, it would be to create a barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic with extra funding from Westminster making up for any shortfall. But that's surely too easy, isn't it?

They are tied to England. Where England goes, they must follow. Specifically they are tied to a Tory England. The alternatives are to become an independent state or unite with Ireland. No other country would touch the place with a barge pole.

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the subject of the DUP, what exactly is their motivation for supporting Brexit? If I wanted to just throw out an easy explanation, it would be to create a barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic with extra funding from Westminster making up for any shortfall. But that's surely too easy, isn't it?

I wouldn't have thought that there was anything more complicated than that behind their motivation..

It was another opportunity to signal their union virtues to Westminster, the Crown and the mainland..

What the DUP haven't realised is that none of Westminster, the Crown or the mainland are in any way interested in Irish people virtue signalling..

Plus those nationalists were agin it

Trasna1

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the subject of the DUP, what exactly is their motivation for supporting Brexit? If I wanted to just throw out an easy explanation, it would be to create a barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic with extra funding from Westminster making up for any shortfall. But that's surely too easy, isn't it?

An even easier explanation would be that it's because the Taigs are against it.

You pick a side and you stick with it in NI

Leroy42

Only if you take the view that they will actually suffer.

The DUP, I assume, are of the view that any losses due to Brexit (which they may not even accept as being true) will simply be met with increased funding from the UK.

In effect, NI is a vassal state of the UK, fully supported (in their minds) by the HMG. They of course have failed to take into account the massive benefits that being part of the EU, along with ROI, has generated.

The main worry is that I am pretty sure that once Brexit happens and the rainbows and unicorns don't magically appear, the Brexiteers will need to look at another scapegoat. Thus the likelyhood of increased funding to NI whilst the rest of the UK suffers is remote.

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

But the mad thing is that farmers are supposed to be a core component of the DUP vote. They're likely to suffer very badly. I know that the usual strategy of blaming the EU will be applied regardless but that can only be stretched so far.

Presumably they are working to squese the UK government to replace whatever EU funding they need to shore up their base. Ultimatly, where are traditional DUP voters going to go? They will never go to SF or the SDLP, and appeals not to split the Unionist vote by going to the UUP or Aliance have always worked for them before. The worst thing is that they are probably correct in their calculation, their biggest concern is that their voters might be less motivated to go to the polls, but if it ever looked like "themuns" might overtake the DUP they will all dutifully show up and vote DUP, even if they have to hold their noses while doing so.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Only if you take the view that they will actually suffer.

The DUP, I assume, are of the view that any losses due to Brexit (which they may not even accept as being true) will simply be met with increased funding from the UK.

In effect, NI is a vassal state of the UK, fully supported (in their minds) by the HMG. They of course have failed to take into account the massive benefits that being part of the EU, along with ROI, has generated.

The main worry is that I am pretty sure that once Brexit happens and the rainbows and unicorns don't magically appear, the Brexiteers will need to look at another scapegoat. Thus the likelyhood of increased funding to NI whilst the rest of the UK suffers is remote.

Exactly. Once their grip on the Tories is relaxed after the next election, it will be payback for holding May's government to ransom. If they are lucky, JRM or Bojo will be PM and the payback won't be as severe, they'll be simply irrelevant. As the economic downsides of Brexit hit home, imagine the MPs from, for example, Rotherham or Bristol South voting for increased spending in NI?

Infini

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the subject of the DUP, what exactly is their motivation for supporting Brexit? If I wanted to just throw out an easy explanation, it would be to create a barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic with extra funding from Westminster making up for any shortfall. But that's surely too easy, isn't it?

Could also be explained as a low risk gamble at the time to support something that those behind the scenes thought they wouldnt lose as Brexit wouldnt happen and theyd get political brownie points for supporting the Union yada yada. Problem is they played with fire and Brexit IS happening. The UUP didnt support Brexit because they were probably smart enough to realise what kind of can of worms they'd be opening if they did.

The truth is the DUP are utter idiots for not only supporting a policy that reactivates reunification as a live option but continuing to push the Brexit case no matter what. The backstop is meant to be only a temporary solution to buy time till reliable systems could be put in place but they'd rather push a Hard Border+Brexit even though this would push support for Reunification across NI into a landslide majority of 60%+. A colossal own goal as if Corbyn gets in I could see a border poll occuring under his tenure.

I actually wonder though, if the Republics voting system were applied in full how much representation would the parties really have? Sinn Fein would probably lose seats to the SDLP and the DUP to the UUP but also to the alliance as well. I honestly think both SF and DUP are overrepresented atm.

Trasna1

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Many Brexiteers will read this, see the 30% predicted house price crash, and say "excellent"

Indeed they have, one look at BTL on the DT, BBC and DM illustrates this.

That said I'm getting skeptical about commentary BTL. It's seemingly infested with what must be paid actors intent not on pushing hard Brexit but sowing division so that nothing but the default no deal is the outcome. Looking at DT, there are posters there who post tens to hundreds of Brexit comments daily.

There are clearly people who want the crash to happen. That's not to say there aren't hard core loons posting too.

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the subject of the DUP, what exactly is their motivation for supporting Brexit? If I wanted to just throw out an easy explanation, it would be to create a barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic with extra funding from Westminster making up for any shortfall. But that's surely too easy, isn't it?

To no-ones surprise their stance is ideological in nature according to this article.

The DUP didn’t think Brexit would be this complicated

The DUP was split over Brexit, according to Jim Wells.

“There were those who were extremely happy to leave and those who were ecstatically happy to leave”, says Wells, a DUP member of the collapsed assembly at Stormont.

Wells claims the decision for the party to back leaving the European Union took “all of five minutes” in 2016. Asking if the DUP was pro-Brexit was “like asking if we were royalist — it’s just the way we are”.

Their end game really comes down to the world will not end after Brexit and just as the United Ireland question has been quelled by economic stability their thoughts were that once the dust settled in Brexit and it wasn't as bad as predicted then people would be content again and the issue would be settled for a long time.

The caveat is that the predictions need to be wrong.

“There was an acquiescence among some nationalists that if the EU was here they were content as long as things were going well economically. But I’m very confident that when there isn’t the Armageddon that’s been predicted people will be settled.”

Gregory Campbell, the DUP MP for East Londonderry, concedes the negotiation is “more slow and more complicated than we thought”.

He said: “I, like most people, knew it wouldn’t be straightforward but I didn’t think anyone suspected it would be as long drawn-out, complicated and divisive [a process] as some people are trying to turn it into.”

Campbell, like Wells, believes that Brexit may in fact bolster the union in the long run by bringing economic benefits. More immediately he accepts that it has invigorated talk of a united Ireland among those who “wouldn’t want to be described as unionists” but were previously happy for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK.

So they are inherently anti-EU and they thought Sinn Fein would be for Brexit as well seeing as they previously displayed anti-EU stances and didn't campaign for Remain.

An Ciarraioch

Yesterday's CSO stats are interesting - exports to GB fell by 5% YOY, while those to the Rest of the EU, US, and Rest of the World all showed solid growth. On the flipside, we still imported more from the UK, but the same is true of every market, bar the US:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjuly2018/

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Yesterday's CSO stats are interesting - exports to GB fell by 5% YOY, while those to the Rest of the EU, US, and Rest of the World all showed solid growth. On the flipside, we still imported more from the UK, but the same is true of every market, bar the US:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjuly2018/

Doesn't surprise me. There's been a concerted movement amongst exporters to actively seek new markets in the wake of the brexit vote. I remember (I think it was An Bord Bia) talking to food exporters over a year ago about this being a necessity rather than a choice.

The actual cost of imports from the UK is going up because of the weakness of sterling. People I've spoken to have told me that they've been experiencing rolling price increases this year. The actual volume of trade may in fact be diminishing.

BonnieSituation

Infini wrote: »

I actually wonder though, if the Republics voting system were applied in full how much representation would the parties really have? Sinn Fein would probably lose seats to the SDLP and the DUP to the UUP but also to the alliance as well. I honestly think both SF and DUP are overrepresented atm.

PR-STV is in play for Assembly elections.

Check out that for a truer reflection of the state of play.

Infini

prawnsambo wrote: »

Doesn't surprise me. There's been a concerted movement amongst exporters to actively seek new markets in the wake of the brexit vote. I remember (I think it was An Bord Bia) talking to food exporters over a year ago about this being a necessity rather than a choice.

The actual cost of imports from the UK is going up because of the weakness of sterling. People I've spoken to have told me that they've been experiencing rolling price increases this year. The actual volume of trade may in fact be diminishing.

Should also be noted that if Hard Brexit happens too then we could be poised to replace lost British agricultural trade on the continent with our own since theyll be at a sigificant disadvantage and well be looking to offset losses.

Rhineshark

Infini wrote: »

I actually wonder though, if the Republics voting system were applied in full how much representation would the parties really have? Sinn Fein would probably lose seats to the SDLP and the DUP to the UUP but also to the alliance as well. I honestly think both SF and DUP are overrepresented atm.

I agree and I think this is a long-term weakness of the GFA power-sharing arrangement.

I'm not saying it was a bad idea. It was needed. But it seems to have resulted in a situation where the DUP and SF can basically act with impunity because they know they will be voted back in. Given the specific type of sectarian divide making it very hard to cross the aisle (like Rep/Dem at the moment) it feeds a possibility of the headbangers taking over the asylum, where there isn't a real need to reach out to moderates, neutrals or soft voters for the other side.

This is the sort of problem that is very hard to address when there are people who just want to bin the GFA because it's currently inconvenient to Brexit. It's hard to sort out problems when it's difficult to acknowledge issues without headbangers using it as ammo to destroy the while thing.

My view on it anyway, I'm open to correction if I have a wrong end of the stick.

EdgeCase

Well it's like two parallel systems within the same parliament on a formalised basis. It's not ideal but it's almost like a federal democracy, only organised on a sectarian rather than geographical basis.

The UK in general is political systems within systems in Westminster though.
Northern Ireland voters don't vote for any of the same parties as England and with the rise of the SNP, Scotland is becoming similarly disconnected.

The UK is generally a very unusual structure and Northern Ireland's the most extreme example of how odd it can get.

Professor Moriarty

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well it's like two parallel systems within the same parliament on a formalised basis. It's not ideal but it's almost like a federal democracy, only organised on a sectarian rather than geographical basis.

The UK in general is political systems within systems in Westminster though.
Northern Ireland voters don't vote for any of the same parties as England and with the rise of the SNP, Scotland is becoming similarly disconnected.

The UK is generally a very unusual structure and Northern Ireland's the most extreme example of how odd it can get.

Funnily enough when you think about it, with increased fragmentation and devolution, the UK is becoming less like a united kingdom of nations. Whereas, with increased integration and centralised power, the EU is becoming more like a united kingdom of nations.

First Up

prawnsambo wrote:

The actual cost of imports from the UK is going up because of the weakness of sterling. People I've spoken to have told me that they've been experiencing rolling price increases this year. The actual volume of trade may in fact be diminishing.

A weaker sterling makes imports from UK cheaper.

Charles Babbage

First Up wrote: »

A weaker sterling makes imports from UK cheaper.

It does, but Sterling falls and you get a benefit, but then prices in the UK increase as there a lot of imported inputs in the products you buy. So a year or two later you have lost half the advantage.

Professor Moriarty

Emily Thornberry, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, has said that Labour will not support Chequers. So, that's Chequers dead in the water.

LuckyLloyd

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the subject of the DUP, what exactly is their motivation for supporting Brexit? If I wanted to just throw out an easy explanation, it would be to create a barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic with extra funding from Westminster making up for any shortfall. But that's surely too easy, isn't it?

As I said a couple of week's ago, it's quite a fascinating example of short term level one thinking:

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The DUP have no ability to think in terms of the long term. They come from a long political history that said "No" at every turn, and always looked to maximize its present advantage with no consideration for how doing so may lead to a greater reverse along the road ahead. The current situation is one they dream of. They hold the balance of power in Westminster; they are being directly ruled from London; they have extracted commitments for greater funding due to this position. They see a Hard Border as a far lessor evil than a sea border, and it would be an outcome that ensconces their Unionism in the short term and harks back to the past - a situation they wanted to perpetuate (they opposed the GFA don't forget).

While all of this is strategically flawed in the long term, their position tightly aligns with their political objectives and promises to their base. It is not illogical therefore, though it is arguably naive. But the DUP have never had vision or a sense of the future. Hard line Unionism harks to the past and aims to maintain the present in as much as it is possible to do so. You can rationally point out how Brexit has drawn a UI closer than it ever has been or threatens the very Union the DUP swear allegiance to but it is a waste of words and logic. They have no interest in hearing it.

Right now this minute (and for the last two years and a bit) they're loving life overall. If they could freeze this moment in time forever they would. Extending that out, a hard border drawn across the island once again aligned to direct rule from Westminster will feel like the early 70's once again. Everyone needs to remember that they voted against the GFA (sorry for constantly reiterating it, but it's pretty crucial to understanding their motivations) and therefore the threat Brexit presents to it is one they welcome.

Infini

First Up wrote: »

A weaker sterling makes imports from UK cheaper.

It makes UK exports cheaper BUT it makes Imports more expensive and drives up the price of anything manufactured in the UK with imported parts.

Infini

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

As I said a couple of week's ago, it's quite a fascinating example of short term level one thinking:



Right now this minute (and for the last two years and a bit) they're loving life overall. If they could freeze this moment in time forever they would. Extending that out, a hard border drawn across the island once again aligned to direct rule from Westminster will feel like the early 70's once again. Everyone needs to remember that they voted against the GFA (sorry for constantly reiterating it, but it's pretty crucial to understanding their motivations) and therefore the threat Brexit presents to it is one they welcome.

Except this ISNT the 70s anymore and the landscape is drastically different. They might have opposed the GFA and might think theyre doing well but thats only while the potent negative effects have yet to assert themselves fully.

They've built their house on a foundation of sand and what they utterly fail to realise or accept is that if a Hard Brexit comes to pass it will set off a chain of events that will most likely lead to a UI as the only escape for many from that situation and it will be all their fault for being so bloody stupid.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

A weaker sterling makes imports from UK cheaper.

A lot of what the UK exports to Ireland, is imported from the EU. If it isn't a direct import/export, it often carries high EU content. That's what is causing the rolling price increases.

LuckyLloyd

Infini wrote: »

Except this ISNT the 70s anymore and the landscape is drastically different. They might have opposed the GFA and might think theyre doing well but thats only while the potent negative effects have yet to assert themselves fully.

They've built their house on a foundation of sand and what they utterly fail to realise or accept is that if a Hard Brexit comes to pass it will set off a chain of events that will most likely lead to a UI as the only escape for many from that situation and it will be all their fault for being so bloody stupid.

Needless to say, I completely agree with you. The post earlier from bilston is a good summation of a strategically minded Unionist being aghast at what they've potentially unleashed upon themselves.

First Up

prawnsambo wrote:

A lot of what the UK exports to Ireland, is imported from the EU.

Such as?

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

Such as?

HP servers and PCs are mostly manufactured in the Czech Republic. The only two agents for HP equipment are based in the UK and from whom HP resellers here get their stock.

There are lots of UK based agencies that have Ireland in their bailiwick. You can't go to the manufacturer since they have made an agreement with that agency to be sole supplier for the UK and Ireland.

Infini

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Needless to say, I completely agree with you. The post earlier from bilston is a good summation of a strategically minded Unionist being aghast at what they've potentially unleashed upon themselves.

Yeah a good post if anything of the view's of someone who's these fools think they can throw under a bus and think it will all be fine. If anything if UI become's the main solution it's the DUP's own fault for blindly pushing the issue. The status quo suited everyone because it negated these issue's through a shared entity. The whole problem is the DUP are stuck in the past and fail to realise what Brexit truly entails: Chaos, Ruin and Division for absolutely NO benefit at all.

Should the UK crash out with no deal the Shinner's no doubt will be strait out the gate pushing UI as the whole solution to everything. It obviously wont be the complete solution but it would be the most viable though in that situation. What does need to happen though is that if this is the way to go that the government make every effort on this side to win over the vast majority of people to how a UI will benefit them and push the EU to be ready to make funds and resources available for this as it would be only the 2nd time after Germany something like this would be happening. At the same time I can only hope that there's people in the Unionist community who realise a UI is inevitable don't fear what's happening but organise and capitalise on this to make it workable and to everyone's benefit. If the shinner's feel this is the perfect way of capitalizing on a crisis to achieve their agenda there's no reason why those unionist's cant do the same since the DUP feels they can throw em under the bus without consequence.

The only major concern will be the headbangers of the DUP and those who are diehard supporters of them and the "union" but these can be relegated to the fringe's by hammering the DUP relentlessly for being the cause of a UI becoming a live issue and by winning the normal reasonable unionist's over by saying you wont be forgotten, you will be accommodated to the best of our power, in the Dail you would potentially have much greater representation than in Westminster, you would have all the right's of the EU and their support in a reunification scenario. If jobs are lost through though the merging of the civil services over time this will be offset by economic gains and investment from the likes of the IDA and FDI investments and No matter what being part of a UI will benefit everyone unlike being tied to the sinking ship of the UK which refused to listen to reason and every warning imaginable and sunk themselves for the sake of pride and arrogance.