Brexit discussion thread IV

Igotadose

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016350766288789504

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

Nody

Igotadose wrote: »

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

The new PM can continue on without a GE; esp. in this case they can blame for example Brexit and state due to the short time let there's not time for a GE at this time.

LeinsterDub

Igotadose wrote: »

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

An election requires a vote of no confidence in the government . This is an internal tory issue

Imreoir2

It's hard to make TM's statements today add up with reality. Either she believes the EU will back down, or she believes she can fool everyone and agree a deal with the EU despite having ruled that kind of deal out again and again, or she believes that she is going to be ousted from No 10 and may as well go down promising a Brexit she can't deliver?

An Ciarraioch

Igotadose wrote: »

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

Yes, unlike what happened here with Albert and Bertie, the role of PM is only invested in the governing party, rather than Parliament, so in theory the Tories can carry on until 2022.

Kermit.de.frog

Leadership contest probably needed to totally clear the decks and give either TM or someone else new authority to proceed.

The whole thing is chaos as it is.

TM was laughed at in the commons by quite a few MP's.

Feel sorry for her in a way. She does not believe in Brexit and is hostage to the tory lunatic fringe.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leadership contest probably needed to totally clear the decks and give either TM or someone else new authority to proceed.

The whole thing is chaos as it is.

TM was laughed at in the commons by quite a few MP's.

Isn't that what May's election to PM was supposed to achieve?

Table Top Joe

Nody wrote: »

Which if you excuse me being cruel here is the best possible outcome for all parties. Now here's the cruel part; UK needs to go through a steel bath to shed the current leadership (both parties) and lies of EU and the implications. Yes that will cost them billion, thousands are likely to die due to it and it will cause a lot of pain and ramp up racist tendencies which will take a long time to heal. However I also think it's the only way they will ever get through their heads how deeply they been lied to is to go through that and find out the lies told over the decades. It's the only way for the voter base to see the reality of things and see beyond the "Lulz UK is a Empire all want our goods" view that is predominant today. In the long term that is the only real positive effect of a hard brexit; the fact they need to deal with all the lies and BS they been feed for ages.

I was convinced of pretty much the same thing after Trump won the White House and the Republicans won everything else back in 16, “if there’s one positive it is these people will be shown up for the chancers they are”.......now things may change in November for the Republicans but Trumps approval ratings have been solid since day one(low but solid, and solid enough that there’s no reason he couldn’t win again tomorrow or in 2020)


I think you give some the leavers far too much credit, there is literally nothing that can change some people’s mind they’re just too thick *shrugs shoulders*, Brexit may well bring them hardship but you can bet your life it won’t be Nigel Farage or Boris bloody Johnson’s fault it will be May or Europe etc, the only positive I see from this is it may encourage more people to vote

Imreoir2

Igotadose wrote: »

Sorry for naivete here; if the PM loses the no confidence vote, then the Torys will need to pick a new PM, but does that 'collapse the government?' None of this necessitates another election, does it? It's up to the PM to call it?

A GE would not be required but could happen. It would depend on the PM that's picked to replace her. Would they persue a no-deal policy that some of their own party would collapse the government over? Would they be able to maintain the support of the DUP?

seamus

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Would they be able to maintain the support of the DUP?

While I can't see the DUP giving up the only shot at power they're going to have for the foreseeable, their dogmatism makes them unpredictable. Leadership might be an internal matter for the Tories, but if the pick is someone who rankles the DUP for whatever reason, then you never know where they'll go.

Madd Finn

cryptocurrency wrote: »

taking back control is just that.

You know, if you keep repeating "taking back control taking back control taking back control" really quickly it pretty soon starts to sound like "troll, troll, troll"

Funny that!

Leroy42

It is very difficult to see a way out of this situation. In a normal democracy, the opposition party would be ready with alternatives to offer to the public, which places pressure on the main party to keep delivering. Labour offer no such alternative and as such TM has been able to ride above marge amounts of resignations in the past and today.

But one of the things that has kept May in her job is actually lack of an alternative, but rather than Labour it is the Tories themselves. There, up until now anyway, not been anyone willing to take her, and thus the role of PM, on.

But even if she is ousted, what will that achieve. Maybe it will lead to a greater coherence, but that is unlikely to change much apart from the sheer amazement of how messed up the current bunch are.

But fundamentally, whomever it is faces a real dilemma. Do you continue to go through what the people voted for, ie leaving the EU, or do they face the reality of the situation and tell the public that they got it wrong and that this course of action brings no benefits. There is certainly a very strong view in the UK that the electorate have made the choice and it is not viable to even suggest that that choice could be wrong.

A soft brexit is being touted, but is that really an option? The plan set out by May, according to the leaks, seems to be very close to EU membership but a few cherry picking for very little in the way of benefits. Even if it was acceptable to the EU, which if it ever was certainly is not after today, that is not what the people voted for. So either a full hard Brexit or no brexit at all.

IMO, hard BRexit is simply not an option. It is all well and good talking about long term benefits, but the UK is still under austerity, is already facing a slowing economy. Are the people expected to suffer another 10 years of stagnation for an undefined outcome? 20+ years of austerity? It is easy to say there will be some pain, but this is pain on top of significant pain already suffered over the previous 10 years.

But I don't believe even Churchill, nay the Queen, could get a consensus in the UK at the present time. So that, by default leads to a hard Brexit and the massive problems that is going to create.

Imreoir2

seamus wrote: »

While I can't see the DUP giving up the only shot at power they're going to have for the foreseeable, their dogmatism makes them unpredictable. Leadership might be an internal matter for the Tories, but if the pick is someone who rankles the DUP for whatever reason, then you never know where they'll go.

If a new PM were to agree to the backstop, they might pull out. Still, the likelyhood is that even if she faces a vote of no confidence, May will win and limp on for a while longer.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Feel sorry for her in a way. She does not believe in Brexit and is hostage to the tory lunatic fringe.

She has the opportunity to stand aside and keep whatever dignity she has left. She wants to stay though!

Madd Finn

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Two precedents in the recent past - firstly, Major replacing Thatcher in 1990, followed by Brown succeeding Blair in 2007.

Callaghan replacing wilson in the 1970s
Douglas-Home replacing McMillan in the 1960s
McMillan replacing Eden and Eden replacing Churchill in the 1950s
Churchill replacing Chamberlain in the 1940s.

Happens all the time

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leadership contest probably needed to totally clear the decks and give either TM or someone else new authority to proceed.

The whole thing is chaos as it is.

TM was laughed at in the commons by quite a few MP's.

Feel sorry for her in a way. She does not believe in Brexit and is hostage to the tory lunatic fringe.

She made her own bed to lie in.

Nody

Let me pose a question here; let's say a GE is called and Corbyn and Labour win a majority of seats with let's say 20 odd seats to spare. What kind of Brexit deal would he look to strike? We know he's not interested in remaining in the CU or Single market so EEA etc. are all out. He has no problem selling out NI so the withdrawal agreement should be quite easy to get done. So would we talk a Canada or Canada+ deal? All zero tariff trade FTA as proposed already? Still outside on services but he's not a fan of the banks in the first place and hence I don't see that being much of an issue for him and as he does not like free migration as it undercuts salaries (in his world view) it there would still be limitations on getting into the UK. Perhaps added something about free EU travel/studies like Rasmus to sweeten the deal for his younger base while claiming it is required to deliver his vision or similar?

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Nody wrote: »

Let me pose a question here; let's say a GE is called and Corbyn and Labour win a majority of seats with let's say 20 odd seats to spare. What kind of Brexit deal would he look to strike? We know he's not interested in remaining in the CU or Single market so EEA etc. are all out. He has no problem selling out NI so the withdrawal agreement should be quite easy to get done. So would we talk a Canada or Canada+ deal? All zero tariff trade FTA as proposed already? Still outside on services but he's not a fan of the banks in the first place and hence I don't see that being much of an issue for him and as he does not like free migration as it undercuts salaries (in his world view) it there would still be limitations on getting into the UK. Perhaps added something about free EU travel/studies like Rasmus to sweeten the deal for his younger base while claiming it is required to deliver his vision or similar?

IMO Corbyn will be hoping there is no snap elections before the deal is finalized no matter the deal.

I think Labour would prefer to let the Tories completely fcuk the whole thing up and play the cards they are given based on the deal.

Sand

Its bemusing that the UK government is infighting to such an extent over a proposal that the EU is likely to reject in any case. I wonder if much has really changed by Davis and Boris quitting. They may have a cabal of support, but they don't have the numbers for their 'Empire 2.0 Singapore-on-Thames' Brexit and they never did. They in turn were never going to vote for single market membership and all that entails. So the political calculus remains the same in most respects: SNAFU.

Leonard Hofstadter

Well, the Labour party wants *a* customs union with the EU, so that is a big start. I know they do believe in magical thinking, but nowhere near as much as the Conservatives do.

They also won't be putting up a border between NI and ROI. The DUP certainly won't go into Government with them so that is another roadblock removed.

So, those are two significant areas under which a Labour Government would be far less hostile to the EU than the Conservative Government, and that would make it far easier for the EU to strike a deal with the UK.

If this goes to an election, who knows how the British electorate would vote - personally I do not believe Jeremy Corbyn will ever be the Prime Minister of the UK.

Sand

Leroy42 wrote: »

A soft brexit is being touted, but is that really an option? The plan set out by May, according to the leaks, seems to be very close to EU membership but a few cherry picking for very little in the way of benefits. Even if it was acceptable to the EU, which if it ever was certainly is not after today, that is not what the people voted for. So either a full hard Brexit or no brexit at all.

IMO, hard BRexit is simply not an option. It is all well and good talking about long term benefits, but the UK is still under austerity, is already facing a slowing economy. Are the people expected to suffer another 10 years of stagnation for an undefined outcome? 20+ years of austerity? It is easy to say there will be some pain, but this is pain on top of significant pain already suffered over the previous 10 years.

I think that is too simple. The UK voted to leave the EU. There was no direction given on the future relationship beyond that, it was entirely in the Parliaments remit. The UK could have Brexited by joining the EEA, retaining single market membership, eliminating 75% of 'European' laws (only 25% of EU law relates to the single market) and even had an arguable chance of ending freedom of movement: Liechtenstein has negotiated an exemption from FoM, while still being an EEA member.

But I don't believe even Churchill, nay the Queen, could get a consensus in the UK at the present time. So that, by default leads to a hard Brexit and the massive problems that is going to create.

After Camerons departure, the UK political class should have immediately formed a national unity government to avoid party politics on such a critical issue. They should have invoked Churchill, the Queen and anyone else to avoid what we've seen instead: a government with no authority, and an opposition with no plan.

For all its faults, Brexit is not the problem. It is simply the symptom of the real problem. The complete and utter failure of British leadership over the past 50-60 years.

zapitastas

seamus wrote: »

While I can't see the DUP giving up the only shot at power they're going to have for the foreseeable, their dogmatism makes them unpredictable. Leadership might be an internal matter for the Tories, but if the pick is someone who rankles the DUP for whatever reason, then you never know where they'll go.

Ian Paisley beag has been uncharacteristically quiet about the situation. He must have other things on his mind

Beechwoodspark

Boris resignation letter has been published.

It’s heavy on hyperbole and flowery language. And extremely light on concrete suggestions let alone solutions.

Full British brexit b****cks!

devnull

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It’s heavy on hyperbole and flowery language. And extremely light on concrete suggestions let alone solutions.

That pretty much sums up most of the discussion about Brexit from the Brexiteers overall though since day 1 to be fair!

Headshot

I reckon May is probably delighted to get rid of Boris. She just has to get over this bump in the road now

Rjd2

Leroy42 wrote: »

The new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, is a Brexiteer.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/dominic-raab-appointed-new-brexit-secretary-in-uk-cabinet-reshuffle

A move he hasn't though through whatsoever. He is ultimately going to have to sell Brexit to the extremists and they simply can't be appeased. As a Brexiter he will also be accused of been a patsy and has probably finished any leadership aspirations he has for now.

Wanderer78

Headshot wrote:

I reckon May is probably delighted to get rid of Boris. She just has to get over this bump in the road now

Bump in the road!

Headshot

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Bump in the road!

A bit of an understatement I know lol

You think about is Davis is gone, Boris is gone, she's getting what she wants and no one will challenge her because who in there right mind wants to lead the UK out of EUROPE

Seeing Boris gone warms my heart

Havockk

Headshot wrote: »

A bit of an understatement I know lol

You think about is Davis is gone, Boris is gone, she's getting what she wants and no one will challenge her because who in there right mind wants to lead the UK out of EUROPE

Seeing Boris gone warms my heart

Free to lead the charge against her outside teh cabinet now. This is a coup, not May getting her house in order.

An Ciarraioch

Chairman of the 1922 Committee says the requisite 48 letters haven't been submitted (at least not yet).

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is very difficult to see a way out of this situation. In a normal democracy, the opposition party would be ready with alternatives to offer to the public, which places pressure on the main party to keep delivering. Labour offer no such alternative and as such TM has been able to ride above marge amounts of resignations in the past and today.

But one of the things that has kept May in her job is actually lack of an alternative, but rather than Labour it is the Tories themselves. There, up until now anyway, not been anyone willing to take her, and thus the role of PM, on.

Labour has offered an alternative. You have to look for it to find it but they have offered it up. Most of it is unicorns and cake as well, but the added difference is they will leave NI to itself which at least clears up a big hurdle in the negotiations with the EU. I believe if May didn't have to deal with the DUP the negotiations for Brexit would have progressed the same way with either Labour or the Conservatives in charge.

I know most of us would like another referendum and are hoping Labour would offer this alternative. But we have to be realistic as well. 17.4 million people voted for Brexit and these are not solely Labour or Tory voters. They are voters who can swing either way if they believe strongly enough that either party will let them out of the EU. What would you propose you do with most of those voters that still truly believe they have to leave the EU? 17.4 million is 3.5 million more than voted for Labour in the last election.

I still think one of the parties should campaign on a no-Brexit platform, but what if they spectacularly lose the election? We would be left with a government that has a platform to ram home a hard Brexit.

That David Cameron tweet will haunt him for the rest of his life. He promised stability and look where he has lead the country. In my opinion that I have seen other state as well is that the UK needs to leave the EU and suffer the consequences before they can reconcile their place in the world. At the moment, even with all the evidence out there they still believe the EU is the evil stopping the UK from being something better. The only hope we have at the moment is that NI will not be forced to put up a border and a sea border will be used. Lets be clear as well that some in NI have been voting for parties that have been acting contrary to their interests for a long time. If they have to face those consequences it is from their votes.

Nody wrote: »

Let me pose a question here; let's say a GE is called and Corbyn and Labour win a majority of seats with let's say 20 odd seats to spare. What kind of Brexit deal would he look to strike? We know he's not interested in remaining in the CU or Single market so EEA etc. are all out. He has no problem selling out NI so the withdrawal agreement should be quite easy to get done. So would we talk a Canada or Canada+ deal? All zero tariff trade FTA as proposed already? Still outside on services but he's not a fan of the banks in the first place and hence I don't see that being much of an issue for him and as he does not like free migration as it undercuts salaries (in his world view) it there would still be limitations on getting into the UK. Perhaps added something about free EU travel/studies like Rasmus to sweeten the deal for his younger base while claiming it is required to deliver his vision or similar?

He wants a FTA that will be comprehensive, but nothing more. He will I believe leave a sea border in the Irish Sea and this will at least allow some negotiations to progress further than they have now. This will at least be a positive for Brexit as its stuck in the mud right now.

Let's not forget that while the Conservatives talk about their White Paper as agreed, it still hasn't been sent to the EU and they have not had their say on it yet. If the response from the EU is the White Paper is not positive I think her time will be up. She will have torn her party in two for proposals that will be rejected. On the other hand if the White Paper is EU membership but not EU membership as it is being sold (meaning they will be rule taking and will allow free movement etc.) she will limp along for how long ever she is able to survive.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Chairman of the 1922 Committee says the requisite 48 letters haven't been submitted (at least not yet).

Is that the only mechanism for a VOC?

LeinsterDub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is that the only mechanism for a VOC?

The opposition could could attempt one. Are the Brexit crowd mad enough to burn the whole place down?

sink

It's no surprise that even in his resignation letter Boris could not help stretching the truth. From the Guardians live blog. Whatever happens next Britain and Europe are better off with him out of government.

In his resignation letter, Boris Johnson brought up an example he has cited before about supposed EU inflexibility – delays in changing lorry standards to permit bigger windows, so drivers can more easily see cyclists and pedestrian.

In the letter, Johnson describes a meeting at Chequers in February, “when I described by frustrations, as mayor of London, in trying to protect cyclists for juggernauts. We had wanted to lower the cabin windows to improve visibility; and even though such designs were already on the market, and even though there had already been a horrific spate of deaths, mainly of female cyclists, we were told we had to wait for the EU to legislate on the matter.”

Is he justified in this? Well, yes and no. Critics said that EU rules on lorry design had tended to prioritise views via mirrors over blind spots, and campaigners had called for some time for a change.

But, when the EU did act to amend this in 2014, Johnson had directed his ire elsewhere – at the government of David Cameron, which was wary about the plans. Johnson said he was “deeply concerned at their attitude.”

In the end the government did accept the idea, and the new, safer lorries started being permitted from this year.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016389527324233730

Had to Google this lad. But still an other one gone.

trellheim

I'm back after a weekend away ... what did i miss ?

Capt'n Midnight

Et tu, Boris ? :pac:

From https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/09/boris-johnson-resigns-as-foreign-secretary-the-brexit-implosion-continues/
May has survived 1922 so should last the week.

A soft Brexit isn't a bad deal for the DUP, and they will be totally shafted by either side if they don't control the balance of power. Plus there's a £410m incentive to keep onside.


Also

Southerner • 2 hours ago

Two tweets that caught the eye today:

(1) From (apparently) a UK civil servant: "We have at least now reached the kinetic phase of the car crash"

(2) From the Deputy Political Editor of 'The Sun': "Gentle reminder for anyone who feels politics has gone crazy - Donald Trump arrives in 72 hours"

LeinsterDub

Riddle me this brexit fans. How can JRM's ERG have 60 members and a rumoured 20 more at their meeting tonight yet the 22 committee doesn't have the votes?

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, the ERG are holding their second meeting tonight, with 80 MPs in attendance:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016392953349197824

brickster69

NATO summit should be interesting

An Ciarraioch

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Riddle me this brexit fans. How can JRM's ERG have 60 members and a rumoured 20 more at their meeting tonight yet the 22 committee doesn't have the votes?

Presumably they were taking the political temperature first.

Havockk

Pound going down.

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Presumably they were taking the political temperature first.

Now I'm starting this with I assume so expect to be wrong. But. I assume they are all fundamentally hard core brexit supports , May is attempting to deliver a soft one so why not get rid of her?

Rjd2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Now I'm starting this with I assume so expect to be wrong. But. I assume they are all fundamentally hard core brexit supports , May is attempting to deliver a soft one so why not get rid of her?

Because the hard core Brexiters are very much in the minority when it comes to Tor MPS? Its why talk of Mogg been PM is so silly as there is no genuine route to him to that spot.

Havockk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Now I'm starting this with I assume so expect to be wrong. But. I assume they are all fundamentally hard core brexit supports , May is attempting to deliver a soft one so why not get rid of her?

I'm guessing timing is the issue. They would want to wait until it was too late to negotiate anything else. So any time now.

Beechwoodspark

May has sent a fairly hard hitting letter back to Boris. It’s like east Enders at this stage

Infini

Havockk wrote: »

Pound going down.

I'm waiting on it to hit parity with the Euro (then buy ALL the goods! )

briany

Infini wrote: »

I'm waiting on it to hit parity with the Euro (then buy ALL the goods! )

That sweet spot where the Pound hits parity with the Euro but before the UK officially leaves on WTO terms, so that we have to pay a big chunk of customs on what we're buying.

LeinsterDub

“We will vote down the deal unless it meets our six tests,” a party source said. “Even if we are walking down the corridor with Tory Brexiters, we are still voting on the lines we have set ourselves.”

So to put the last 3 days into context. The British government has imploded over a plan half of them don't agree with, doesn't have the numbers to make it though parliament and will be rejected by the EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/labour-poised-to-vote-down-brexit-deal

An Ciarraioch

Johnson's PPS (what we would call a Junior Minister) has resigned.