Brexit discussion thread IV

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Should we not be very very wary about that in regard to the integrity of our own output/exports?
Anything could find it's way into Irish products if the British were in any way lax.

How else was a sea border going to work? This is the EU proposal from the start, instead of a line which no-one wants on the island lets have one in the sea. Someone was going to need to check items in the UK and the EU is fleshing out those plans now so people can decide.

The problem isn't so much about the checking of the items, it's more if the DUP will accept it or will they collapse the government.

Leroy42

But aren't the EU, and thus mainly Ireland, still going to have to check at least some goods crossing the border.

What kind of border is that if the EU are checking it? France would have to check goods coming from Ireland for eg

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

But aren't the EU, and thus mainly Ireland, still going to have to check at least some goods crossing the border.

What kind of border is that if the EU are checking it? France would have to check goods coming from Ireland for eg

No. That is the whole point of the backstop.

They are checked at Liverpool or Stranraer and not at Killeen.

Trasna1

Deleted User wrote: »

No. That is the whole point of the backstop.

They are checked at Liverpool or Stranraer and not at Killeen.

Say a dispute arises where Britain issues a directive not to enforce only UK but not EU customs at its ports, say in response to an EU import ban for say unsafe children's toys, what then? Ireland is then over a barrel. NI becomes the instant smuggling route for all goods into the SM. A hard border in that instance would have to be erected.

Having the UK enforce EU custom rules is not an all weather backstop and it does allow the UK to have real leverage over a member state.

Indeed it would allow a corrupt brexiteer official to undermine an external market. In fact they might even see it as their duty - and as it's not effecting the UK treasury one would imagine they're would be little incentive to deal with it.

You would think that joint enforcement would be a minimum here.

ancapailldorcha

ECJ oversight seems to be the only red line that May herself really cares about, aside from perhaps free movement. It's hard to imagine any sort of plan getting traction if it involves the European Court.

Harika

An interesting segment from James O'Brien (hate him or love him) but that Jaguar Land Rover had developed 27! Brexit scenarios, before! the referendum is remarkable and then some snot faces claim they have no clue.

Zubeneschamali

Trasna1 wrote: »

Say a dispute arises where Britain issues a directive not to enforce only UK but not EU customs at its ports, say in response to an EU import ban for say unsafe children's toys, what then? Ireland is then over a barrel. NI becomes the instant smuggling route for all goods into the SM. A hard border in that instance would have to be erected.

Yes, if the UK do not adhere to their end, a hard border is the result. They will always be able to force a hard border if they want to.

Better than a deal where the hard border happens before the UK do anything at all.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, if the UK do not adhere to their end, a hard border is the result. They will always be able to force a hard border if they want to.

Better than a deal where the hard border happens before the UK do anything at all.

But with a deal the EU will try to get the backstop in place if the conditions of the deal is not adhered to then the backstop kicks in which would be all out NI in the EU and the hard border in the Irish Sea, right?

The EU knows no deal is bad for the EU so they will try to get a deal as much as possible. This deal may not be the ideal one we want, but it will also only be a deal that doesn't compromise on the EU single market and custom union regulations. I am sure that while the current proposal being reported by the EU looks very much like the backstop, it will not actually be the backstop they want to enshrine in law. Otherwise it seems to me that there is no incentive from the UK to keep their end of the agreement and Michael Gove already said that any deal can be torn up in future.

So enshrining the backstop will still be the priority with this deal as the path towards what a solution could look like to have the open border without cutting NI off completely. I could obviously be totally wrong on this as well.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

So enshrining the backstop will still be the priority with this deal as the path towards what a solution could look like to have the open border without cutting NI off completely.

My point is that the backstop only works if the UK play along.

If they decide not to, we will need a hard border for goods.

joeysoap

So if your In Birmingham and export to say France do it through NI?

If your Nissan and use same day parts use NI, ok there will be an initial delay but after that should form a reliable pathway?

Nody

joeysoap wrote: »

So if your In Birmingham and export to say France do it through NI?

If your Nissan and use same day parts use NI, ok there will be an initial delay but after that should form a reliable pathway?

Why? You'd need to go through the exact same controls in NI as you'd do at the French border so you'd only add transit time by routing it over NI (assuming it's implemented as intended).

Leroy42

Who collects the tariffs? Say China has tariffs on goods into the EU, simply route them through the UK, UK won't give a toss, and then come straight through NI into ROI and onto France.

This seems like a totally insane proposal, it is not better than the Chequers plan

Dymo

Leroy42 wrote: »

Who collects the tariffs? Say China has tariffs on goods into the EU, simply route them through the UK, UK won't give a toss, and then come straight through NI into ROI and onto France.

This seems like a totally insane proposal, it is not better than the Chequers plan

I think it's the EU bending backwards to get a deal with the UK, and I think we could call this a concession to the UK. It's not like having a border in the Sea, your letting a country outside the EU check goods and then deem it satisfactory.

“The EU wants a transit procedure or process. Controls could happen at the companies and they would just scan a label on board ships.”

judeboy101

Trasna1 wrote: »

Indeed or dedramatised. It just goes to show the power of spin. This proposal is a clear loss for the UK but is being spun as a win. Tbh it's probably the only way to get Brexit over the line.

What they are saying is that NI will be in the same customs area as IRL but that checks will be minimal.

How the proposal deals with items imported directly from third countries to Belfast will be interesting

How does this solve the free movement of eu non Irish across the ni "border"? Or services north and south?

Sassygirl1999

judeboy101 wrote: »

How does this solve the free movement of eu non Irish across the ni "border"? Or services north and south?

its clear the EU are getting cold feet about the strength of the back stop , watering it down today

Imreoir2

How many times have we seen headlines in British papers about the EU giving way, Barnier backing down, blah blah only for it to be shown later than there is very little substance to the claims and the EU's position is the same today as it was six months ago.

The EU knows what it needs for its external frontier to work. I don't buy the EU team panicing at the last minute and agreeing any deal even if it is unworkable in th long term. We have seen time and again that the EU has held a firm and rational line and I expect this to continue to the end. If the UK can't come up with its own proposals, or accept EU proposals, then its no deal Brexit and we work to get past the worst of it and meet the UK at the negiotiating table in a few months time when they are ready to agree.

An Ciarraioch

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

How does this solve the free movement of eu non Irish across the ni "border"? Or services north and south?

its clear the EU are getting cold feet about the strength of the back stop , watering it down today

Only changing the terminology to appease the UK, nothing in the various articles to suggest any tinkering with the substance.

An Ciarraioch

UK literally between a Rock and a hard place:

http://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1041689615852285952

Rhineshark

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

its clear the EU are getting cold feet about the strength of the back stop , watering it down today

But not regarding Ireland, notably. Allowing British inspections at British ports seems a surprisingly big concession. Big enough that I'm dubious it will work as intended. The UK doesn't exactly have a good track record recently regarding customs. If the other countries are willing to offer this to keep their word to Ireland, the EU is very much standing by us here.

If the UK goes rogue though, we would have to make the choice of no customs on the island or no customs between us and the continent. There is no practical way around that if the UK chooses not to honour this agreement post-Brexit. Hopefully national sobriety has taken hold again by then though.

Nody

Rhineshark wrote: »

If the UK goes rogue though, we would have to make the choice of no customs on the island or no customs between us and the continent. There is no practical way around that if the UK chooses not to honour this agreement post-Brexit. Hopefully national sobriety has taken hold again by then though.

If UK goes rogue Ireland gets to raise external borders exactly like every other EU country; Irish is not some special case for exceptions on something so fundamental.

Infini

Nody wrote: »

If UK goes rogue Ireland gets to raise external borders exactly like every other EU country; Irish is not some special case for exceptions on something so fundamental.

Every other country in the EU doesn't have the risk of a civil war erupting over it though in the worst case scenario. That being said the UK going rogue would backfire spetacularly as they'd find themselves restricted from the continent trade wise.

Nody

Infini wrote: »

Every other country in the EU doesn't have the risk of a civil war erupting over it though in the worst case scenario. That being said the UK going rogue would backfire spetacularly as they'd find themselves restricted from the continent trade wise.

What civil war erupting exactly? Even during the 70s there were not a civil war going on and UK going rogue with a hard border is the best gift IRA/SF could possibly dream of for speeding up a unification. The hyperbole some posters have about the border is honestly reaching the levels of Brexiter dilusions about how EU is going to cave in in Salzburg because of "confidental sources".

Rhineshark

Nody wrote: »

If UK goes rogue Ireland gets to raise external borders exactly like every other EU country; Irish is not some special case for exceptions on something so fundamental.

Yep. So this concession gives the UK a lot of influence on our future within the single market by basically whether it plays ball or not. But what else is there at this point.

Leroy42

If the EU accept any climbdown or concessions in their approach now, Ireland will effectively be cut adrift.

The EU will consider the issue closed and any problems will be Irelands to deal with.

If the EU cannot countenance a crash out now when they hold all the cards, what makes anyone think they will push the issue later?

This is the moment, either stick by the principles are say goodbye to the EU in terms of Ireland.

First Up

Rhineshark wrote:

If the UK goes rogue though, we would have to make the choice of no customs on the island or no customs between us and the continent. There is no practical way around that if the UK chooses not to honour this agreement post-Brexit. Hopefully national sobriety has taken hold again by then though.

It will be the UK's choice eventually.

The EU is giving them scope to come up with ways to retain a borderless Ireland. But the integrity of the Single Market and Ireland's membership of it are not for discussion.

Latitude will be allowed for cross border trade (especiall agri) and may even extend to inputs of NI origin being included in product from the Republic sold in the EU.

But if the UK tries to use the Irish arrangements as a back door into the SM, they will quickly be brought to heel. Brussels is acutely aware of all the possible scenarios and potential abuses.

Traffic between Britain and NI will be monitored one way or another. May doesn't like it and the DUP and many Tories will throw a fit but it is up to the UK to make it work and in the end, they won't have a choice.

This is all coming as an unwelcome dose of reality to Brexiteers who thought the EU would quickly agree to an EU/UK free trade agreement so none of this would arise.

They are learning - slowly.

joeysoap

Nody wrote: »

Why? You'd need to go through the exact same controls in NI as you'd do at the French border so you'd only add transit time by routing it over NI (assuming it's implemented as intended).

You saying that if the EU has customs charges on goods from UK into France that the UK authorities are going to collect the customs on trucks going to NI?
If not who is going to collect the customs charges when a NI company export them to France?

Beechwoodspark

Panorama on bbc 1 at moment is about the Chequers plan. T May on with Nick Robinson.

Infini

Nody wrote: »

What civil war erupting exactly? Even during the 70s there were not a civil war going on and UK going rogue with a hard border is the best gift IRA/SF could possibly dream of for speeding up a unification. The hyperbole some posters have about the border is honestly reaching the levels of Brexiter dilusions about how EU is going to cave in in Salzburg because of "confidental sources".

Calm yourself now, I said WORST CASE POSSIBILITY. I doubt that it could get to that stage expecially if the likes of the anti-border groups were to organise into a reunification movement. That being said it could get ugly if there's the forced implimentation of a Hard Border against the wishes of the local population. My point was that no other border in the EU has the same historical connotations associated with it than the Irish Border or the fact that a bloody and vicious sectarian conflict was fought precisely over this border.

Water John

Barnier has been exceptionally good go us during these negotiations, never mistepped. I see no reason to doubt him.
A few people need to hold their nerve.

Junkyard Tom

Bojo is being quoted on the BBC News ticker: 'backstop is an attempt to annex NI'.

Dangerous language from a dangerous clown.