Brexit discussion thread IV

judeboy101

Peregrinus wrote: »

Free movement across the Irish border was never seen by the UK as a problem. They have intended all along to maintain the CTA. Their mode of controlling migration from EU was never going to be through border controls, but through employment checks, rental checks, checks on school enrolment, accessing health services, social security, etc, etc. Whatever other problems an open border presents, it's not a problem for UK enforcement of its migration policy.

So god help anyone in Donegal who has a heart attack while they do background checks when they arrive in artnagalvin. Or companies like Quinn who could be letter boxed in eu but employees working out side ecj a mile up the road.

Peregrinus

judeboy101 wrote: »

So god help anyone in Donegal who has a heart attack while they do background checks when they arrive in artnagalvin. Or companies like Quinn who could be letter boxed in eu but employees working out side ecj a mile up the road.

Well, welcome to the "hostile environment", Judeboy.

This issue raises its head quite independently of Brexit. Right now, today, a third country national could travel from the Republic to NI, and from NI to GB. And the UK's method of detecting that is to require people to demonstrate their migration status when taking up employment, registering with a GP practice, etc, etc. This doesn't just affect 3rd country nationals, of course, since an EU national, an Irish citizen, even a UK citizen can be required to demonstrate their citizenship. We know how well that works from the Windrush crisis, but it's all the UK have got.

But, I stress, it's independent of Brexit. The only difference post-Brexit is that EU citizens (other than Irish citizens) called upon to demonstrate their migration status won't be able to do so simply by demonstrating that they are EU citizens; they'll have to show that they are members of the class of EU citizens who have a right to live/work/settle in the UK.

listermint

judeboy101 wrote: »

So god help anyone in Donegal who has a heart attack while they do background checks when they arrive in artnagalvin. Or companies like Quinn who could be letter boxed in eu but employees working out side ecj a mile up the road.

Direct your drama at the source of it.

The Tories .

Rhineshark

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'd strongly suspect the anonymous source is probably someone in or close to the British Government who is trying to make mischief tbh.

I think we're going to be faced with a full spin assault form the UK over the next few weeks and months. Things are getting serious and their main aim is to either fracture the Irish government or fracture EU/Irish relations or set a laid of EU countries on Ireland over tax to fracture EU/Irish relations.

The whole thing smells of their usual divide and conquer or 'find the gaps and drive wedges into them' tactics.

Unless a story has a named source, I'd be extremely iffy about it.

It would be nice if the Tories could act like reasonable people of relatively good faith for once.

The above should be a conspiracy theory in normal times but this lot ...yeah, entirely believable.

Nody

Rhineshark wrote: »

It would be nice if the Tories could act like reasonable people of relatively good faith for once.

The above should be a conspiracy theory in normal times but this lot ...yeah, entirely believable.

But the thing is let's for the sake of argument say they managed to create a divide; how will that help them get a better deal when all 27 need to sign of the deal? There is going to be at least one pissed of part that will want to piss in the cornflakes of the other so to speak. If anything it increases the chance of a no deal brexit even further.

flatty

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Watching Newsnight it seems as if the BBC suddenly woke up and started putting real issues in front of the public instead of providing a platform to Brexit fantasists who believe Britain holds all the cards.

The BBC is the epitome of herd running cowardice. There are very few journalists working there. They are staffed by shiny suited spivs and colour supplement writers.

Trasna1

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Agreed. It was a remarkable edition of Newsnight

... and I wouldn't be surprised if there is some fallout from some of the editorial decisions. The introduction piece was straightforward enough, but the two panels had a major shift in tone.

On the first, they led with the business editor, who coolly dismantled the claims of "Project Fear", by starting with Jaguar, but continuing on to point out that the story there is consistent with what she was hearing from the rest of the automotive industry. It put the following discussion with the political editor, Nick Watt in context of the realities of Brexit. One gets the feeling that political correspondents generally are struggling to understand the implications of what politicians are saying. A case in point, Newsnight's Evans complained only a week or two ago that the EU's position was difficult to work out!! It was refreshing tonight.

On the second panel, Mairead McGuinness was, as per usual, very unambiguous and logical -- but defending the EU's position very effectively. Martin Donnelly's calm, measured presentation was the eye-opener. His explanation of the NI border issue is one of the best I've heard, focusing as it did on the social dimensions of a hard border -- showing just how important regulatory alignment is to border communities, even more than customs alignment. We haven't heard much on that angle recently ... the focus has been nearly 100% on impediments to trade. I suspect Donnelly is familar with the joint work done by British, Irish and EU officials analyzing the impact of Brexit on the GFA's Strand 2 activities. (Tony Connelly has documented that that analysis showed that leaving the Single Market negatively impacted on all areas of north/south corporation under Strand 2.)

It will be interesting to see if this edition of Newsnight is a once off or represents a shift in the BBC's policy towards Brexit.

I noticed the shift last night too. Normally you'd have someone like Bernard Jenkins appearing opposite McGuinness - so to have someone there as calm and measured as Donnelly there was certainly a change.

We shall see if they return to form, for balance.

kowtow

Leroy42 wrote: »

If the EU accept any climbdown or concessions in their approach now, Ireland will effectively be cut adrift.

The EU will consider the issue closed and any problems will be Irelands to deal with.

If the EU cannot countenance a crash out now when they hold all the cards, what makes anyone think they will push the issue later?

This is the moment, either stick by the principles are say goodbye to the EU in terms of Ireland.

If Bloomberg is to be believed then EU solidarity with Ireland may come at a price of our acquiescence over Digital Tax.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/irish-said-to-face-eu-tax-pressure-in-return-for-brexit-support

Given the EU’s unwavering support around Brexit, it will be politically unsustainable for Ireland to be the sole blocker of tax changes, the person said. Any tax proposal will need the unanimous approval of all EU members before becoming law, meaning a single country could block it.

Hurrache

But Ireland are not the sole blocker of tax changes.

kowtow

Hurrache wrote: »

But Ireland are not the sole blocker of tax changes.

True, and just because we are under pressure it doesn't mean we have to cave in to it.

But if it is true it makes the warm glow of untrammeled EU solidarity a little less warm and fuzzy and a bit more realpolitik.

When the EU call for the Irish border issue to be "de-dramatized" who are they suggesting dramatized it in the first place?

Leroy42

Good interview on Morning Ireland this morning with Andrew Bridgen, a Brexit supporting MP. Stated that he preferred a no deal to Chequers and then Audrey (the interviewer) asked him about the practical implications of Brexit on people in ROI/NI.

At one point she simply left him with the dreaded radio silence as he realised he hadn't even considered the issue, never mind a solution. He then reverted to the usual lines about the UK being the toast of the world etc.

Leroy42

kowtow wrote: »

True, and just because we are under pressure it doesn't mean we have to cave in to it.

But if it is true it makes the warm glow of untrammeled EU solidarity a little less warm and fuzzy and a bit more realpolitik.

When the EU call for the Irish border issue to be "de-dramatized" who are they suggesting dramatized it in the first place?

They only mean "de-dramatized" in terms of how the UK politicians are treating it like some sort of invasion. The UK need to consider the reality of the situation they are facing, take off the Union Jack glasses and look at it practically.

EU have not dramitised it, they have simply pointed out the realities of the situation and the choices the UK need to make. The UK, in December, agreed that this was the correct approach and only a phone call with Arlene made them suddenly rethink the whole thing and elevate it to the "choice no PM would ever make" (despite TM having already shaken off on it!)

Zubeneschamali

kowtow wrote: »

When the EU call for the Irish border issue to be "de-dramatized" who are they suggesting dramatized it in the first place?

Brexiteers, especially the DUP.

kunst nugget

kowtow wrote: »

If Bloomberg is to be believed then EU solidarity with Ireland may come at a price of our acquiescence over Digital Tax.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/irish-said-to-face-eu-tax-pressure-in-return-for-brexit-support

Ireland isn't the sole blocker of the tax changes so the point is moot.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-digital-tax/nordic-countries-oppose-eu-plans-for-digital-tax-on-firms-turnover-idUKKCN1IW333

volchitsa

judeboy101 wrote: »

So god help anyone in Donegal who has a heart attack while they do background checks when they arrive in artnagalvin. Or companies like Quinn who could be letter boxed in eu but employees working out side ecj a mile up the road.

You mean Altnagelvin, right?

I'm getting the impression of someone who is googling to find any back up for their ideology, and who doesn't have any real experience of Donegal, Derry, or the border between the two.

Igotadose

volchitsa wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

So god help anyone in Donegal who has a heart attack while they do background checks when they arrive in artnagalvin. Or companies like Quinn who could be letter boxed in eu but employees working out side ecj a mile up the road.

You mean Altnagelvin, right?

I'm getting the impression of someone who is googling to find any back up for their ideology, and who doesn't have any real experience of Donegal, Derry, or the border between the two.

Now, now you don't want to be called a geography nazi.

ancapailldorcha

Igotadose wrote: »

Now, now you don't want to be called a geography nazi.

Serious discussion only, please.

Trasna1

kowtow wrote: »

True, and just because we are under pressure it doesn't mean we have to cave in to it.

But if it is true it makes the warm glow of untrammeled EU solidarity a little less warm and fuzzy and a bit more realpolitik.

When the EU call for the Irish border issue to be "de-dramatized" who are they suggesting dramatized it in the first place?

Some people seem to think that the EU is a union of complete solidarity, like a family where there is no payback for support received. In fact it is much much more transactional, as can be seen from response to the migration crisis. You can bet your backside Ireland has offered support on a variety of European issues, like the budget in exchange for support on Brexit. Public utterances by officials belie the realpolitik behind the scenes and It should come as no surprise to anyone that there people gunning to take it down Irish tax policy in the commission and in other European governments and will use any leverage they can to break the steadfast Irish resistance (to date) to it. This could of course also be British mischief making, but you can be sure there is some truth to it too.


That said, Ireland has been in a weaker position in Europe and still managed to come out with it's tax policy intact.

volchitsa

Igotadose wrote: »

Now, now you don't want to be called a geography nazi.

Perish the thought!

(It's a serious point though - because it's someone who's trying to sound knowledgeable about a place to increase their plausibility, so it's a massive boo boo not to know the name of the place. It's not like there are all sorts of similar sounding words that Autocorrect might change it too, Altnagelvin is such an unusual name for a hospital - and I should know, I was born there!)

Sassygirl1999

I think it's true , Bloomberg are correct , ireland will be bullied soo much to shed our corporate rate in exchange for solidarity , but we don't have to cave

Leroy42

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

I think it's true , Bloomberg are correct , ireland will be bullied soo much to shed our corporate rate in exchange for solidarity , but we don't have to cave

Well, yeah, but then that has a been the case for the last number of years.

Its the tying it to Brexit which is the problem.

I think since the Uk is leaving, trying to push Ireland to tax harmonisation will likely lead to a significant increase in the calls to leave the EU.

Whilst of course Ireland is irrelevant in total to the EU, having another long standing member leave is not anything the EU is going to want to even give a chance to.

Water John

This really shows where right wing think tanks and JRM et al want to take the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs

This is for the UK to become a vassal state of the US. The 51st State if you will.
This is not in the interest of UK citizens but a small cabal of very rich people.

'The authors argue for a free trade agreement that would loosen government controls on capital and data flows and be “more liberalising than any other free trade agreement in the world”. They say that it could become a model for future deals post-Brexit. It would remove tariffs and throw out the precautionary principle that has guided much EU regulation on GM foods, chlorine-washed chicken, hormones in meat, pesticides and chemicals in cosmetics.'

kunst nugget

Water John wrote: »

This really shows where right wing think tanks and JRM et al want to take the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs

This is for the UK to become a vassal state of the US. The 51st State if you will.
This is not in the interest of UK citizens but a small cabal of very rich people.

'The authors argue for a free trade agreement that would loosen government controls on capital and data flows and be “more liberalising than any other free trade agreement in the world”. They say that it could become a model for future deals post-Brexit. It would remove tariffs and throw out the precautionary principle that has guided much EU regulation on GM foods, chlorine-washed chicken, hormones in meat, pesticides and chemicals in cosmetics.'

Jesus, that really makes for a grim future for the UK.

Lemming

kunst nugget wrote: »

Jesus, that really makes for a grim future for the UK.

It will also bury any customs agreements with the EU, so in Davis parlance, they want Grim plus plus.

FreudianSlippers

kowtow wrote: »

If Bloomberg is to be believed then EU solidarity with Ireland may come at a price of our acquiescence over Digital Tax.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/irish-said-to-face-eu-tax-pressure-in-return-for-brexit-support

kowtow wrote: »

True, and just because we are under pressure it doesn't mean we have to cave in to it.

But if it is true it makes the warm glow of untrammeled EU solidarity a little less warm and fuzzy and a bit more realpolitik.

When the EU call for the Irish border issue to be "de-dramatized" who are they suggesting dramatized it in the first place?

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

I think it's true , Bloomberg are correct , ireland will be bullied soo much to shed our corporate rate in exchange for solidarity , but we don't have to cave

I think there is some confusion here over what is being discussed by the EU and Bloomberg here; it has nothing to do with corporate tax rates but corporate tax bases.

There is no pressure on Ireland to harmonise CT rates. What Ireland is (incorrectly) objecting to is a change to how digital profits are taxed. As it stands, profits made in other EU member states on digital income (advertising etc.) are taxed only at the seat of the company (e.g. Ireland); the EU (IMHO correctly) proposes that if money is being made by companies on digital content in Member States then that income should be taxed in that Member State.

The example I've used elsewhere is a company based on Ireland has digital income in Germany, that digital income is taxed in Germany at German rates, but the company still pays its total corporation tax on the remainder of income at Ireland's 12.5% rate.

I actually don't see what's wrong with this proposal other than Ireland not wanting to lose income (estimated at 5% of CT income).

But it is nothing to do with CT rates in Member States.

briany

Water John wrote: »

This really shows where right wing think tanks and JRM et al want to take the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs

This is for the UK to become a vassal state of the US. The 51st State if you will.
This is not in the interest of UK citizens but a small cabal of very rich people.

'The authors argue for a free trade agreement that would loosen government controls on capital and data flows and be “more liberalising than any other free trade agreement in the world”. They say that it could become a model for future deals post-Brexit. It would remove tariffs and throw out the precautionary principle that has guided much EU regulation on GM foods, chlorine-washed chicken, hormones in meat, pesticides and chemicals in cosmetics.'

Do you think that JRM fully knows what he's doing, e.g. that he's cynically using the cloak of patriotism to further his own ends and he knows this full well, or has he done some mental gymnastics into believing that what will benefit him and select others will also overall benefit the UK?

ancapailldorcha

Water John wrote: »

This really shows where right wing think tanks and JRM et al want to take the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs

This is for the UK to become a vassal state of the US. The 51st State if you will.
This is not in the interest of UK citizens but a small cabal of very rich people.

'The authors argue for a free trade agreement that would loosen government controls on capital and data flows and be “more liberalising than any other free trade agreement in the world”. They say that it could become a model for future deals post-Brexit. It would remove tariffs and throw out the precautionary principle that has guided much EU regulation on GM foods, chlorine-washed chicken, hormones in meat, pesticides and chemicals in cosmetics.'

Jesus. This sort of thing makes a Jeremy Corbyn premiership actually appealing.

kunst nugget

briany wrote: »

Do you think that JRM fully knows what he's doing, e.g. that he's cynically using the cloak of patriotism to further his own ends and he knows this full well, or has he done some mental gymnastics into believing that what will benefit him and select others will also overall benefit the UK?

Most definitely option A. The fooker is looking to line his own pockets by crashing the economy. He doesn't give two figs about the lives he'll destroy.

kunst nugget

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I think there is some confusion here over what is being discussed by the EU and Bloomberg here; it has nothing to do with corporate tax rates but corporate tax bases.

There is no pressure on Ireland to harmonise CT rates. What Ireland is (incorrectly) objecting to is a change to how digital profits are taxed. As it stands, profits made in other EU member states on digital income (advertising etc.) are taxed only at the seat of the company (e.g. Ireland); the EU (IMHO correctly) proposes that if money is being made by companies on digital content in Member States then that income should be taxed in that Member State.

The example I've used elsewhere is a company based on Ireland has digital income in Germany, that digital income is taxed in Germany at German rates, but the company still pays its total corporation tax on the remainder of income at Ireland's 12.5% rate.

I actually don't see what's wrong with this proposal other than Ireland not wanting to lose income (estimated at 5% of CT income).

But it is nothing to do with CT rates in Member States.

And most importantly, we're not the only country that don't want this digital tax to come in so it's a dead duck at the moment.

Water John

I have no doubt JRM is fully aware where this is going.
How stupid though are the authors/funders to launch this at this particular time?
More Koch Bros financing. Really hope this gets the full publicity it deserves.