Brexit discussion thread IV

smurgen

kunst nugget wrote: »

kowtow wrote: »

Leaving aside the irony that the newspaper you are quoting from is controlled from a tax minimizing Cayman islands structure, and that two JRM funds have now located in a third tax haven (Dublin)...

No I don't believe that taxpayers should pay more tax than is legally due. Do you?

I'm also pretty strongly of the opinion that (international) tax competition helps keep Governments more honest and countries more competitive as well as providing opportunities for smaller countries to leverage technology to their advantage and provide employment for significant numbers of well educated youngsters who might otherwise emigrate.

We're talking about JRM being the last person to act out of venal self interest though, aren't we?

Jacob Rees-Mogg is a long-term backer of investment management firm Somerset Capital, an emerging markets investment firm.

Jacob Rees-Mogg joined other Eurosceptics calling for a “clean” separation with the EU so the UK has the freedom to strike new trade deals.

Moves to create barriers to trade with the EU would force UK companies to strike up deals elsewhere, directly profiting companies backing the emerging markets.

Hmm, I wonder who could benefit from that. It's a tricky one. Obviously, it wouldn't be JRM - that would be venal self interest for him to benefit like that...

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/02/08/2198570/jacob-rees-moggs-huge-personal-windfall-after-brexit/

Funny thing is that his father wrote a book on how to make money in a time of economic crisis. But, of course, JRM wouldn't have contemplated anything like that because he'd never act out of venal self interest.

https://twitter.com/nickkehoe01/status/1024909617682362368?lang=en

The likes of JRM and Trump thrive on disaster capitalism.Nigel Farage is the same.look at the incorrect Brexit outcome Farage announced to Bloomberg.Aparently it was part of an F.X trade deal he was part of https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/26/nigel-farage-remain-won-brexit-bloomberg

Zubeneschamali

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

sounds like the brits might be getting their way a bit now, borris will be contented

That is exactly what Barnier and the EU want folks in the UK to think - the new wording sounds like the UK wins, so they can sell it domestically.

Even though it is the same actual proposal from the EU that the Brits hotly rejected previously.

demfad

1. BMW always closes for a month a year for maintenance. All it has done is bring forward that routine shutdown.

The channel tunnel's closure will be until trading conditions improve (no-deal conditions removed). They have provisionally put this at one month, but as it has no facilities to handle tariff and non-tariff trade it will be closed as long as the no-deal crises continues.

BMW: Some product parts add so much cost and/or time that it will make it unprofitable for businesses to cross trade/non-trade barriers. Just in time manufacturing (practiced by all vehicle manufacturers)is one of these. Suppliers have to deliver to the vehicle production line at exactly the right time to avoid stopping the line. They can't afford known or unknown delays. These suppliers are supplied by Tier 2 suppliers. They simply can't afford the costs.
It's a no-brainer for BMW to move the month forward. Note there is no solution for after the month bar no-deal being reversed.

This is the scale of the crises that will be visited on all business that must cross the new wall of time and money that no-deal Brexit will erect. For many, including thg giants, the cost of crossing that wall will put them out of business.

2. Once again, maybe just give us one piece of evidence of a position taken by JRM's funds which will benefit disproportionately from a hard Brexit.

--Here is the FTA Cato have published for the US/UK. Annex 2 is a veritable regulations bonfire on Financial services. Mogg will maintain his position in the EU via his Dublin branches, and will gain massively from this FTA with the US.
Obviously there is massive corrupt potential reward for a politician with no integrity who could make this happen. JRM's integrity?
Let's see: He talks about sanctions against Russia, but doesn't talk about his funds £60m investment in sanctioned Russian bank Sberbank.

3. Presumably if the "appointment" of Fox and May was designed to ensure a hard Brexit the Chequers deal is some sort of deliberate ruse designed to be unpalatable to Europe and to ensure a hard Brexit but to equally leapfrog over the dangerous possibility of any kind of Canada plus deal or any other outcome.... ????


The Lancaster House speech with May's red lines and most of the last 2 years have shown that the goal was FTA's outside the Customs Union. The Irish border barrier was not invisaged then. Fox was an incompetent and disgraced former minister. Why on earth would he be made Minister for trade?

Well because of the connections he built up with RW conservatives in the US via the Atlantic Bridge charity: from the Heritage Foundation, the Cato instiitute and ALEC a group that makes 1000's of ready made bills for puppet politicians to present to congress (ALEC heavily funded Atlantic Bridge).
The Cato Institutes proposed FTA is the outcome of this.

It is ironic and fitting in this morally bankrupt mess that the same connections/actions that ultimately caused Fox to be fired were the reasons for his reappointment.

Ultimately, Fox paid the price for blurring the lines between his political and personal life. But the warning signs had been there for some time. Eyebrows were raised two years ago when he appointed a former US army captain, Luke Coffey, as his special adviser. Coffey is a member of the Council for Emerging National Security Affairs, a thinktank that promotes US national security and is staffed largely by ex-CIA agents.

The appointment spoke volumes about Fox's thinking. The Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott observed: "We are allies of America, but we are not the 51st state."

Fox disagreed.

LeinsterDub

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/deal-or-no-deal-the-countdown-to-brexit-starts-here-1.3633540

Key dates outlined by the Irish times. Very handy

1. September 19th-20th : Salzburg
2. September 23rd-October 3rd : Conference season
3. October 18th-19th : The official deadline
4. November 15th : Special Brexit summit
5. December 13th-14th: Final European summit of the year
   

badtoro

kowtow wrote: »

including many who would rather see an end to EU subsidy and the distortions it produces.

More likely they want to see subs end so their non dairy neighbours fail and they get access to a larger milking platform at knock down prices.

Doesn't speak great to putting financial intetests second.

Kermit.de.frog

According to Politico UK is trying to get a consent principle in to the backstop.

So in other words there might have to be a referendum or some such for it to come in to effect if needed.

Can't see that being accepted as that is not a contingency.

Leroy42

The UK are still trying to come to terms with the reality.

They either stay fully withing the EU, leave but let NI remain, or leave.

That is it. Pick one. They can't seem to come to terms with it. They are now arguing that it should relate to the whole of the UK, so in effect staying in, but still leaving.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

According to Politico UK is trying to get a consent principle in to the backstop.

So in other words there might have to be a referendum or some such for it to come in to effect if needed.

Can't see that being accepted as that is not a contingency.

And in any case, all the polling done in NI has shown a clear preference for SM membership, so no benefit for TM in such a strategy.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And in any case, all the polling done in NI has shown a clear preference for SM membership, so no benefit for TM in such a strategy.

It would shut the DUP up fairly quickly if they were told that there would be a referendum in NI on the backstop if they dont swallow it.

Dymo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It would shut the DUP up fairly quickly if they were told that there would be a referendum in NI on the backstop if they dont swallow it.

They would just pull out of the government then if they thought they were going to lose.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/KeohaneDan/status/1042430031316897797


Shall we all inform May how we feel?

Kermit.de.frog

Indeed. How would we feel if our country was divided in two?

Leroy42

Simple TM, stay in the EU or leave with no deal.

Why are you looking to others to solve the problem that you created?

LeinsterDub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Indeed. How would we feel if our country was divided in two?

It was in 1921 and people where less than happy about it.

Sassygirl1999

Northern Ireland businesses purchased £11 billion of goods from Britain compared to £2 billion from the Republic of Ireland and £4.1 billion from the rest of the world in 2016, according to figures supplied by the UK government to the European Commission, and seen by RTÉ News.
Have we compiled our figures for the above with UK and NI separately?

An Ciarraioch

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

Northern Ireland businesses purchased £11 billion of goods from Britain compared to £2 billion from the Republic of Ireland and £4.1 billion from the rest of the world in 2016, according to figures supplied by the UK government to the European Commission, and seen by RTÉ News.
Have we compiled our figures for the above with UK and NI separately?

CSO stats last week - €1.1 billion exports to NI, €800m imports. €7.9 billion exports to GB, €10.1 billion imports:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjuly2018/

Sassygirl1999

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

CSO stats last week - €1.1 billion exports to NI, €800m imports. €7.9 billion exports to GB, €10.1 billion imports:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjuly2018/

NI has marginally more to lose from any newly erected trade barriers with the UK than ROI has to lose from a no deal Brexit with the UK, for this reason NI will never remain part of the CU or SM if the UK does not IMHO no deal Brexit or Remain are the only possible outcomes

Kermit.de.frog

Theresa May is refusing the EU's "improved" offer on the border.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/may-can-t-agree-a-post-brexit-border-in-irish-sea-official-says?utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

Imreoir2

No deal Brexit it is so, bring on a border poll.

eire4

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No deal Brexit it is so, bring on a border poll.

I have to say at this point while it still blows me away how blind to reality and what is in their own best interests in this whole fiasco I still can't quite get my head around the very real prospect that there will be a no deal bexit. But clearly such a scenario is a very real possibility.

Kermit.de.frog

Donald Tusk has warned Theresa May that Britain's border plans are unacceptable to the EU and must be reworked...

Leroy42

I really cannot see any other outcome other than a border. It may be fudged for the time being, into a transition period or possibly beyond, but it is inevitable at this stage unless something fundamental changes. By that I mean either the EU ditches it core principles or the UK opt out of Brexit.

Because, IMO, even if a 'deal' is done, the UK have shown that it will simply be a stepping stone to where they want to go.

The 'power' of the EU is being tested here, and if they give in on the core principles, it will be a major death blow to the whole concept which as it is is already precarious.

I think, in hindsight, that the continued attempt to placate the UK with nice words has backfired on the EU as the UK sees them as willing to move towards their position (whether that is true or not).

If the EU had simply laid out the options and told the UK to pick one and then they would talk it would be in a better place. Now the EU are scrambling around trying to avoid a cliff edge they even they are not prepared for.

Itssoeasy

I've said before how baffling the commentary and statements were many months ago about brexit and the potential issues to a no deal and here we are about six months from D-day and the British public and government as a whole seem content to just carry on regardless and fail to see that the issue with the Irish border is their making and it's up to them to fix it.

Them trying to say that the EU need to be more flexible is ridiculous. Now, you may not like the rules of the EU but they are what they are and if you are dumb enough to leave the EU then it's up to the country leaving to adhere to the rules. They U.K. don't want to and are upset when the EU calls them on it.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Theresa May is refusing the EU's "improved" offer on the border.

All this means is that May thinks there is still some time left before she has to fold at the very last minute.

eire4

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

All this means is that May thinks there is still some time left before she has to fold at the very last minute.

I would say that is probably the most likely deal scenario.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

All this means is that May thinks there is still some time left before she has to fold at the very last minute.

eire4 wrote: »

I would say that is probably the most likely deal scenario.

But then why make these statements? There was no need for her to make them, just go to the meeting and see what transpires.

She is locking herself into a particular course of action. I don't see a way that she could credibly row back at this stage.

Junkyard Tom

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No deal Brexit it is so, bring on a border poll.

Better to wait a couple of years until the full effects of this mess are evident.

Imreoir2

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Better to wait a couple of years until the full effects of this mess are evident.

It will happen sooner or later after a no-deal Brexit. NI's place in the UK would become untenable.

Junkyard Tom

BBC News providing the British public with an 'idiots guide' to the negotiations just now 'so does the EU need us more than we need the EU? No, not really, the EU is much bigger than us'. Six months to go and two years on from the leave vote.

Sweet mercy.

Leroy42

Sky news running with a leaked EU memo from the EU airports stating they are not ready for a no deal scenario and Barnier needs to get a deal.