Brexit discussion thread IV

Beechwoodspark

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sky news running with a leaked EU memo from the EU airports stating they are not ready for a no deal scenario and Barnier needs to get a deal.

Wonder does the leak come in an envelope posted from Westminster

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sky news running with a leaked EU memo from the EU airports stating they are not ready for a no deal scenario and Barnier needs to get a deal.

Can't see why that would be an issue, no-deal means there wont be flights from the UK landing at EU airports.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/CVecchioFX/status/1042465776102461440

Leroy42

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Can't see why that would be an issue, no-deal means there wont be flights from the UK landing at EU airports.

UK citizens won't just be flying from the UK.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CVecchioFX/status/1042465776102461440

Turn in sentiment from whom? The EU and Ireland's position hasn't changed.

Itssoeasy

Leroy42 wrote: »

UK citizens won't just be flying from the UK.

I know you're on about flying but what happens with the Eurostar and the tunnel ? I suppose there'll have to be checks there for uk citizens going to France by train.

Imreoir2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I know you're on about flying but what happens with the Eurostar and the tunnel ? I suppose there'll have to be checks there for uk citizens going to France by train.

French ministers have suggested that the operation of the Eurostar would have to be suspended in a no-deal sceanario.

Infini

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I know you're on about flying but what happens with the Eurostar and the tunnel ? I suppose there'll have to be checks there for uk citizens going to France by train.

That apparently closes down too. The UK is at risk of being completely cut off in a crashout scenario bar emergency measures taken on both sides to mitigage this.

I honestly think we're looking at a 2nd ref under the threat of a crashout in a few months. I could see the EU at least agreeing to allow an A50 withdrawal in those circumstances. A crash out benefits noone except Moggs and Farages vulture friends so the adults in the room wont say no in that scenario.

Itssoeasy

Imreoir2 wrote: »

French ministers have suggested that the operation of the Eurostar would have to be suspended in a no-deal sceanario.

Not surprising actually. I mean that declaration by the French and the BMW announcement about having to close a factory for a month if there is a no deal. Combined that with the issues around air travel, are the British government ignorant or just pig headed about getting the worst deal they can ? Can they not see that these statement from their still EU partners and companies based here aren't being said for nothing.

Cosmo Kramer

Hurrache wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CVecchioFX/status/1042465776102461440

Turn in sentiment from whom? The EU and Ireland's position hasn't changed.

The currency markets - the tweeter is an FX guy. Pound is falling again.

Itssoeasy

If I didn't know any better I'd think this whole mess with brexit was an unused script from fawlty towers being read by the yes prime minister cast.

Imreoir2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Not surprising actually. I mean that declaration by the French and the BMW announcement about having to close a factory for a month if there is a no deal. Combined that with the issues around air travel, are the British government ignorant or just pig headed about getting the worst deal they can ? Can they not see that these statement from their still EU partners and companies based here aren't being said for nothing.

Unfortunatly it seems too many of them have bought into their own propaganda.
It's all project fear as far as they are concerned, they are focusing on the sunny uplands of Brexit, whatever the hell that means.

Hurrache

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

The currency markets - the tweeter is an FX guy. Pound is falling again.

Ah, I thought he was implying a turn in political sentiment as opposed to the markets.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CVecchioFX/status/1042465776102461440

I'm confused about that. Turn in sentiment by whom? Those quotes are fairly consistent with previous Irish and EU positions.

Does he mean such comments are bolstering support for Brexit by stoking some bulldog spirit?

I might be misinterpreting.

lawred2

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

The currency markets - the tweeter is an FX guy. Pound is falling again.

Oh I could have just waited

demfad

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

NI has marginally more to lose from any newly erected trade barriers with the UK than ROI has to lose from a no deal Brexit with the UK, for this reason NI will never remain part of the CU or SM if the UK does not IMHO no deal Brexit or Remain are the only possible outcomes

Remember a lot of the £11 billion would be day to day items in high street shops and supermarkets. The ROI faces similar issues but these can be overcome to some degree by changing supply lines.
Any produce of EU origin could be exported directly to NI and more expensive GB products replaced. ROI will be doing this for the Island anyway. You would be looking at a lot more serious competition from the likes of Aldi and Lidl to Tesco etc up there.

A no-deal Brexit is catastrophic and unsustainable.

The North needs remain, EEA, or remain in SM/CU with comprehensive FTA between UK and EU (focus on NI).

brickster69

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

French ministers have suggested that the operation of the Eurostar would have to be suspended in a no-deal sceanario.

Not surprising actually. I mean that declaration by the French and the BMW announcement about having to close a factory for a month if there is a no deal. Combined that with the issues around air travel, are the British government ignorant or just pig headed about getting the worst deal they can ? Can they not see that these statement from their still EU partners and companies based here aren't being said for nothing.

This BMW thing is really fake news. That factory stops production for a month in May every year, they are bringing it forward because they are starting to produce electric Mini's instead of Diesel ones due to lack of sales.
It also makes sense while no production is going on, to get plenty of parts in stock in case of any disruption because of a hard Brexit
https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/bmw-to-close-oxford-mini-plant-for-a-month-post-brexit/

Hurrache

It's not 'fake news' if it's actually happening. ****ing stupid phrase.

brickster69

Hurrache wrote: »

It's not 'fake news' if it's actually happening. ****ing stupid phrase.

They are bringing the shutdown forward one month from May till April. It is not the end of the world, makes perfect sense to see what the time frame for parts are while no production is going on.

Sassygirl1999

brickster69 wrote: »

They are bringing the shutdown forward one month from May till April. It is not the end of the world, makes perfect sense to see what the time frame for parts are while no production is going on.

presumably they will still be paying wages for that month, jaguar are cutting a day a week around that time also, presumably they won't be paying for that day, that may be a bigger story

Kermit.de.frog

Varadkar saying UK text can't be accepted...

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0919/994793-salzburg/

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1042488571825999873

demfad

brickster69 wrote: »

They are bringing the shutdown forward one month from May till April. It is not the end of the world, makes perfect sense to see what the time frame for parts are while no production is going on.

From a previous thread:

BMW: Some product parts add so much cost and/or time that it will make it unprofitable for businesses to cross trade/non-trade barriers. Just in time manufacturing (practiced by all vehicle manufacturers)is one of these. Suppliers have to deliver to the vehicle production line at exactly the right time to avoid stopping the line. They can't afford known or unknown delays. These suppliers are supplied by Tier 2 suppliers. They simply can't afford the costs.
It's a no-brainer for BMW to move the month forward. Note there is no solution for after the month bar no-deal being reversed.

This is the scale of the crises that will be visited on all business that must cross the new wall of time and money that no-deal Brexit will erect. For many, including thg giants, the cost of crossing that wall will put them out of business.

THe proposed Eurotunnel shutdown is similar.
No infrastructure available under no-deal Brexit. Hope no-deal is reversed within the month.

Kermit.de.frog

No progress despite positive British media articles in recent weeks according to Varadkar...

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1042489104607444992

Junkyard Tom

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sky news running with a leaked EU memo from the EU airports stating they are not ready for a no deal scenario and Barnier needs to get a deal.

Just saw that on Sky News who were selling it as an advantage for T-May's negotiating position..

It amounts to 'the neighbours houses will get scorched if we burn ours to the ground' and this is an advantage?

Bizarre.

brickster69

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

brickster69 wrote: »

They are bringing the shutdown forward one month from May till April. It is not the end of the world, makes perfect sense to see what the time frame for parts are while no production is going on.

presumably they will still be paying wages for that month, jaguar are cutting a day a week around that time also, presumably they won't be paying for that day, that may be a bigger story

Jaguar staff will still be on full pay. The problem is 95% of cars made there are diesel and sales have fell through the floor. Another one going electric.

PeadarCo

Junkyard Tom wrote:

Bizarre.

Junkyard Tom wrote:

It amounts to 'the neighbours houses will get scorched if we burn ours to the ground' and this is an advantage?

It's crazy but at this stage it is actually a strategy. In a certain way it makes a bit of sense. Unless something dramatic happens the UK won't be able to come up with a solution that satisfies anyone. The chequers deal was only the start and was still way off what was required to get a deal. However look at the backlash from Brexiters. Labour are doing nothing and from the sounds of it any change will have to driven by unions. A large number of the Conservatives the so called party of business have ignored at best and in bad cases completely dismissed concerns businesses have.

If they can't get a deal that can get through parliament what other option do they have but to hope the EU blinks first? A hard brexit is the default option. It's a massive indictment on the UK and how its been run since the referendum was announced that this could even be considered a strategy though.

Leroy42

So on top of Brexit some UK auto makers are suffering due to downturn in diesel.

This seems to be waved away as nothing to worry about by brexiteers but of course the real issue is whether the likes of BMW and Jaguar will replace the lost production or simply move somewhere in the EU.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

So on top of Brexit some UK auto makers are suffering due to downturn in diesel.

This seems to be waved away as nothing to worry about by brexiteers but of course the real issue is whether the likes of BMW and Jaguar will replace the lost production or simply move somewhere in the EU.

Landrover/Jaguar have already moved production of the Discovery to Eastern Europe. More will follow. Maybe, they might movesome to their home country - India.

Anthracite

brickster69 wrote: »

Jaguar staff will still be on full pay. The problem is 95% of cars made there are diesel and sales have fell through the floor. Another one going electric.

You genuinely see no issue with the JIT methodology that has underpinned the feasible manufacture of cars for decades going completely out the window under Brexit?

Junkyard Tom

PeadarCo wrote: »

It's crazy but at this stage it is actually a strategy.

It's a sort of economic MAD strategy, I guess, without the mutual bit. Maybe ASS would be more descriptive: Assured Self Sabotage.