Brexit discussion thread IV

Leroy42

TM has told the EU that there will be no movement on leave date and the new NI proposals are unacceptable.

It appears she is trying to shift pressure back to EU to avoid a crash.

But Davies has leaked a speech he is due to give saying Chequers is undemocratic and cannot be voted for.

So TM is threatening the EU to agree to Chequers or else, at the same time many in her own parliament are saying Chequers is a non starter!

Seems to me that the UK is playing a classic bluff hand in poker.

They know their hand is weak, but know the other side don't want to lose. So can they simply brazen it out in the hope that the EU caves? That seems to be the approach they are taking, they have been talking up their willingness to go with a crash out for months.

How prepared are the EU to run with a crash out? Both physically in terms of the ports and other operations and also financially?

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

How prepared are the EU to run with a crash out? Both physically in terms of the ports and other operations and also financially?

EU is I'd guesstimate about a year to 18 months ahead of UK in preperation for a crash out while being the party who'll face the least damages from it. Having said that EU would (once again guessing based on comments) happily take another year to 18 months beyond the current date to prepare if possible.

Leroy42

Nody wrote: »

EU is I'd guesstimate about a year to 18 months ahead of UK in preperation for a crash out while being the party who'll face the least damages from it. Having said that EU would (once again guessing based on comments) happily take another year to 18 months beyond the current date to prepare if possible.

So do you think the most likely outcome is a fudge to transition, that nominally the UK leaves in March but that nothing at all changes? There is the issue of the upcoming budget and elections but they could be overcome.

The UK will introduce FOM of constraints in line with the EU laws but of course not currently undertaken in the UK to 'show' they had made progress?

This would certainly seem to be the best solution for everyone.

flatty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yeah, but you didn't answer the question. What is the reasoning behind an MP, elected to serve the best interests of his constituency, acting in a fashion that all reports would indicate will actually have a negative effect?

You may recall the £350m pw on the side of a bus. Now it turns out the argument isn't about economics, or the NHS, at all, but about sovereignty. Which is great because it is one of those concepts that is very hard to define and measure.

In addition, people like Liam FOx, are touting a trade deal with the US which would mean dropping all sorts of conditions and accepting US rules in lots of areas, not sure how that tallies with sovereignty.

So people like JRM may well be doing this out of some ideology, but that doesn't make it any less harm full or wrong. It may well be that he may not indeed stand to gain much either way, although it would appear otherwise, but even if he doesn't, he is in a financial position that he will be able to ride out any negative effects and as such it is not much of a gamble to him.

To the car workers, the people that work in FDI's, farmers, millions across the economy, they do not have that, and will have to deal with the consequences themselves. We have already seen a fall off in growth. People like JRM have been quick to rubbish that on the basis that there is still growth, but that loss of growth will have resulted in someone not getting a new job, or a promotion, or a payrise. That will cost that person for years to come. To so easily brush that loss aside as if it is nothing shows the thought process of these people

I'll likely get shouted at, but it is relevant. I have met Liam Fox. He is genuinely not very bright. In my opinion this is important to bear in mind. David Davies is notoriously dim, he was a standing joke in the british army. Jrm is very bright, but is a zealot, and is playing them all.

Sassygirl1999

TM talks about the chequers plan like it's an agreed international accord she is referring to, it's not even agreed within her own party, she really is out on a limb, a little gust of wind from the EU over the next two months and she be floored, no deal or election

deirdremf

Nody wrote: »

EU is I'd guesstimate about a year to 18 months ahead of UK in preperation for a crash out while being the party who'll face the least damages from it.

The EU as a whole may be in this position, but I doubt if we in this country are.

Harika

Hannan pushing a mutual recognition for UK and US laws/regulations to create a real free trade union with nuggets like
If the FDA agrees to a drug, it is good enough for the UK. He seems to forget that there are different principalities of how drugs are approved.
He likes hormones in meat, it is all the EU’s fault that UK cannot eat this delicious meat. No one can be forced, it’s everyone’s choice what to eat. Yeah right!

Zubeneschamali

road_high wrote: »

London will rightly sell NI down the swanny

No, not NI - they will sell the DUP up the swanny.

NI will end up with the best of both worlds - inside and outside the EU at the same time. The DUP are just too blinkered to see it.

swampgas

There is some disagreement within the EU but France is pushing back against TM's constant demands for cherry picking:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/macron-urges-eu-leaders-to-stand-firm-against-theresa-may-brexit

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

So do you think the most likely outcome is a fudge to transition, that nominally the UK leaves in March but that nothing at all changes? There is the issue of the upcoming budget and elections but they could be overcome.

Fudge, UK leaves EU but in practice remains as a sort of member without a vote (and still paying their nominal share) and EU asks other countries to treat them as a EU member for the transition period. That's along the lines EU appears to have planned it and it would give both parties another year or two to sort things out but would obviously cause uproar with the Brexiteer crowd back home in UK for May.

lawred2

swampgas wrote: »

There is some disagreement within the EU but France is pushing back against TM's constant demands for cherry picking:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/macron-urges-eu-leaders-to-stand-firm-against-theresa-may-brexit

The nationalist prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, who has sparred with Macron over migration, told reporters he was leading a camp within the EU who “do not want to punish Britain” and wanted a “fair Brexit”.

We can start signalling the last dance for the EU if it starts moving to this lad's tune

Skelet0n

lawred2 wrote: »

We can start signalling the last dance for the EU if it starts moving to this lad's tune

Somehow I can’t imagine the EU would have any desire to entertain a nice separation from Hungary, just get them to shut the door on the way out.

Nody

lawred2 wrote: »

We can start signalling the last dance for the EU if it starts moving to this lad's tune

He's simply playing the same tune as several other right wing parties who want to leave to avoid those pesky EU rules about democracy and see Brexit spoiling their dreams. The Danish right wing party wanted the Danish government to push for a "generous Brexit" and that Denmark should then leave as well on the same terms for example.

demfad

• Liam Fox is planning to scrap EU food standards using controversial "Henry the 8th" powers, multiple sources have told Business Insider.
• The UK trade secretary wants to use government powers to rewrite UK food standards in order to strike a post-Brexit trade deal with the Trump administration.
• Sources claim Fox wants to alter food standards through the Trade Bill. A government spokesperson denied the bill would be used to lower standards.
• Labour accuses Fox of risking putting UK "farmers and food producers out of business.
• The UK will need to lower its food standards to sign a comprehensive trade deal with the US
  http://uk.businessinsider.com/liam-fox-trade-deal-scrap-european-union-food-standards-after-brexit-2018-9?r=US&IR=T

UK Government are planning to go ahead with this. This would spell the end of the UK as we know it. Disastrous implications for NI and erecting a high unsurmountable regulations wall between NI and ROI should NI not stay in SM.

The Initiative for Free Trade, a right-wing organisation with close links to Fox and US President Trump, will this week unveil proposals for a UK-US free trade deal based on cutting back food and environmental regulations.

Fox' colleague, Treasury minister Liz Truss, reportedly told one of the think tanks involved in the proposals that the UK is being held back by "a thicket of regulation and control" and should pursue an "Anglo-American dream."

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

He's simply playing the same tune as several other right wing parties who want to leave to avoid those pesky EU rules about democracy and see Brexit spoiling their dreams. The Danish right wing party wanted the Danish government to push for a "generous Brexit" and that Denmark should then leave as well on the same terms for example.

Hungary is a net beneficiary of EU funds so he's not going to bite the hand that feeds too hard. I think ideally he'd like to shrink it so it can't interfere with his populist strongman agenda while keeping the EU taxpayer-funded moneytrain going.

Trasna1

demfad wrote: »

UK Government are planning to go ahead with this. This would spell the end of the UK as we know it. Disastrous implications for NI and erecting a high unsurmountable regulations wall between NI and ROI should NI not stay in SM.

I suppose it would solve the problem of needing imported labour to pick fruit, since it would put all growers out of business.

VinLieger

demfad wrote: »

UK Government are planning to go ahead with this. This would spell the end of the UK as we know it. Disastrous implications for NI and erecting a high unsurmountable regulations wall between NI and ROI should NI not stay in SM.

That would make the whole new plan of having checks between the UK and NI absolutely pointless, its almost like none of them know what the others are up to.

Also agreed it will destroy the UK produce industry, cant wait to see them wondering why all their traditional foodstuffs suddenly taste sh1te while paying 50% less for them

Leroy42

^ and that is why, IMO, all this compromising and working together by the EU towards the UK is pointless.

A large driver of BRexit is wanting to Take Back Control, and in order to get better trade deals that the UK currently have they will need to drop standards. It is only a matter of time before large differences exist. What the UK are hoping for is that small divergences won't, of themselves, be enough to create a problem.

But this is only going one way if the UK are allowed to special treatment.

Trasna1

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Hungary is a net beneficiary of EU funds so he's not going to bite the hand that feeds too hard. I think ideally he'd like to shrink it so it can't interfere with his populist strongman agenda while keeping the EU taxpayer-funded moneytrain going.

Surely Orban is pushing back for the UK following the support it gave regarding his censure.

demfad

Trasna1 wrote: »

I suppose it would solve the problem of needing imported labour to pick fruit, since it would put all growers out of business.

VinLieger wrote: »

That would make the whole new plan of having checks between the UK and NI absolutely pointless, its almost like none of them know what the others are up to.

Also agreed it will destroy the UK produce industry, cant wait to see them wondering why all their traditional foodstuffs suddenly taste sh1te while paying 50% less for them

Leroy42 wrote: »

^ and that is why, IMO, all this compromising and working together by the EU towards the UK is pointless.

A large driver of BRexit is wanting to Take Back Control, and in order to get better trade deals that the UK currently have they will need to drop standards. It is only a matter of time before large differences exist. What the UK are hoping for is that small divergences won't, of themselves, be enough to create a problem.

But this is only going one way if the UK are allowed to special treatment.

I think there is going to be a major crises. It is actually vital for the EU that the truth that the cause is with UK side is visible. If impressionable people in the UK (and there are many clearly) blame the EU for their misfortunes, what rises next could be very ugly indeed.

We also see the establishment of a permanent US sentry in Europe as a strategic move against the third superpower (EU). Having this in our Union is bad enough, on our Island intolerable.

Zubeneschamali

demfad wrote: »

It is actually vital for the EU that the truth that the cause is with UK side is visible. If impressionable people in the UK (and there are many clearly) blame the EU for their misfortunes, what rises next could be very ugly indeed.

I disagree. Once the UK are out, they can blame the EU in their cesspool of right-wing media all they like, not the EU's problem anymore.

Just as well, since there is nothing whatever the EU can do about it.

Harika

Macron again enforces the importance of the backstop to find a proper solution for the Irish people.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1042714294385893376

It is often feared here that Ireland is dropped to save a deal, but anytime you ask those politicians they repeat their stance that they are standing with Ireland.

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Hungary is a net beneficiary of EU funds so he's not going to bite the hand that feeds too hard. I think ideally he'd like to shrink it so it can't interfere with his populist strongman agenda while keeping the EU taxpayer-funded moneytrain going.

Its not the Countries its the suspect right wing parties within them. Follow the money, you will see it leads East.

Imreoir2

Harika wrote: »

Macron again enforces the importance of the backstop to find a proper solution for the Irish people.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1042714294385893376

It is often feared here that Ireland is dropped to save a deal, but anytime you ask those politicians they repeat their stance that they are standing with Ireland.

I guess years of living with the UK has drilled it into the Irish mentality to expect your larger neighbours to screw you over when it becomes mildly beneficial for them to do so.

VinLieger

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I guess years of living with the UK has drilled it into the Irish mentality to expect your larger neighbours to screw you over when it becomes mildly beneficial for them to do so.

I think part of the reason the rest of the EU is so adamant about it is they are all pretty pissed off with the UK's absolutely stupidity and refusal to accept reality on the entire Brexit debacle.


The NI issue is an incredibly easy stick to continue beating them over the head with and not look petty about the situation.

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

We can start signalling the last dance for the EU if it starts moving to this lad's tune

A case of you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours. At that vote the other week to censure Hungary the Tories were the only party, in any EU government, not to support it.

In fact this was a byline in the Independent.co.uk at the time, exactly 1 week ago actually. The UK were getting into bed with some dodgy characters.

Theresa May's MEPs isolated amongst conservatives amid claims of trading favours for support on Brexit
....
...
The Tories were the only governing conservative party in western Europe to vote en masse in support of Viktor Orban’s far-right government, an analysis of votes by The Independent has found.

The Conservatives whipped their 19 MEPs to oppose action against Hungary, with just one defiantly voting for the motion.
...
...
The Conservatives, who lined up with the continent’s far-right, argued the motion was “politicised” and counterproductive, but critics at home accused them of deliberately cosying up to Mr Orban to win his support in Brexit talks.

Arriving in Strasbourg, a grateful Mr Orban heaped praise on the British government, telling reporters: “We would like to have a fair Brexit because we love the British and because we cooperated always well – and you deserve a good deal, a fair deal.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-victor-orban-hungary-eu-parliament-vote-mep-group-europe-a8535511.html

ancapailldorcha

Trasna1 wrote: »

Surely Orban is pushing back for the UK following the support it gave regarding his censure.

In fairness, only the Conservatives and UKIP MEP's gave support.

listermint wrote: »

Its not the Countries its the suspect right wing parties within them. Follow the money, you will see it leads East.

People vote for these parties though but yes, I suspect dubious foreign capital may be at play.

murphaph

Harika wrote: »

If the FDA agrees to a drug, it is good enough for the UK. He seems to forget that there are different principalities of how drugs are approved.
He likes hormones in meat, it is all the EU’s fault that UK cannot eat this delicious meat. No one can be forced, it’s everyone’s choice what to eat. Yeah right!

What a slimy weasel. If US beef was legal in the UK then what's to stop UK farmers also treating their cattle with hormones? It would be impossible to prevent this. It would become impossible to know if you were eating hormone treated beef or not (never mind in catering where the cheaper US beef would become the norm of course and you couldn't even rely on the packaging).

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I disagree. Once the UK are out, they can blame the EU in their cesspool of right-wing media all they like, not the EU's problem anymore.

Just as well, since there is nothing whatever the EU can do about it.

If after the UK crashes out and has it's disastrous deal with the US: a UK Donald Trump type character or worse emerges and blames the EU for the UKs woes, then it will be very much the EU's problem.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

I think part of the reason the rest of the EU is so adamant about it is they are all pretty pissed off with the UK's absolutely stupidity and refusal to accept reality on the entire Brexit debacle.


The NI issue is an incredibly easy stick to continue beating them over the head with and not look petty about the situation.

Whilst I welcome the comtinued support from the rest of the EU, I don't really think it has anything to do with Ireland as such.

The border, and the way the UK want a special deal, is a significant threat to the very existence of the EU.

As is clearly shown by the latest rumours of trade deals with the US, and TM has signalled from the very start that the UK will be moving towards US and away from EU, and therefore the EU needs to protect itself.

Macron said so himself in that clip when he mentioned the integrity of the SM.