Brexit discussion thread IV

ancapailldorcha

demfad wrote: »

If after the UK crashes out and has it's disastrous deal with the US: a UK Donald Trump type character or worse emerges and blames the EU for the UKs woes, then it will be very much the EU's problem.

Indeed though we already have that character in the form of Boris Johnson who has proven that he will say literally anything he thinks will help him get elected PM as long as he doesn't have to actually do anything. Harmonious relations between the UK and the EU are important for obvious reasons.

mrbrianj

murphaph wrote: »

What a slimy weasel. If US beef was legal in the UK then what's to stop UK farmers also treating their cattle with hormones? It would be impossible to prevent this. It would become impossible to know if you were eating hormone treated beef or not (never mind in catering where the cheaper US beef would become the norm of course and you couldn't even rely on the packaging).

Isn't that what they really want - a move away from EU rules so they can do things like use hormones in beef - making their produce cheaper and getting the ability to take in cheaper imports.

The problem is when that happens how do we stop it flooding in here/EU through the North?

An Ciarraioch

mrbrianj wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

What a slimy weasel. If US beef was legal in the UK then what's to stop UK farmers also treating their cattle with hormones? It would be impossible to prevent this. It would become impossible to know if you were eating hormone treated beef or not (never mind in catering where the cheaper US beef would become the norm of course and you couldn't even rely on the packaging).

Isn't that what they really want - a move away from EU rules so they can do things like use hormones in beef - making their produce cheaper and getting the ability to take in cheaper imports.

The problem is when that happens how do we stop it flooding in here/EU through the North?

That's precisely why we're pushing for the backstop.

An Ciarraioch

If the UK have no specific proposals right now, even November seems unlikely to be met:

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1042727841836793856

Zubeneschamali

demfad wrote: »

If after the UK crashes out and has it's disastrous deal with the US: a UK Donald Trump type character or worse emerges and blames the EU for the UKs woes, then it will be very much the EU's problem.

Again, no. Once the UK is out, they are a 3rd country like any other and their internal politics are not the EUs problem.

If the UK descends into Mad Max anarchy and refugees pour across the English Channel, that would be a problem, but I think we can all agree that is unlikely.

Leroy42

TM - I want negotiations to be concluded as soon as possible, lets get this wrapped up
EU- Grand, give us your final ideas and we will set to work immediately
TM- Well, I don't actually have any actual details as such. I was kinda hoping you'd have them, and then amend them to suit me. I've been rather busy lately, and this whole October meeting is all so last minute.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If the UK have no specific proposals right now, even November seems unlikely to be met:

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1042727841836793856

Are we to assume that the UK are planing to push everything down to the wire in the hopes that some form of concession is forthcoming from the EU, and then agree to whatever is on the table at that stage?

Hard to see this not ending in a no-deal Brexit unless the UK captiulate before the end of the year.

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Are we to assume that the UK are planing to push everything down to the wire in the hopes that some form of concession is forthcoming from the EU, and then agree to whatever is on the table at that stage?

I don't think they are hoping for concessions at all. It's a bit like the public service unions "negotiating" with the government here, you have to put on a show so your members think you are doing a good job for them, even though you have zero leverage.

The idea is to have your negotiators in a last minute 36-hour session with paper cups of tea and ham sandwiches delivered to the room, push the agreement until 11.00 pm before whatever midnight deadline finally looms, and then when the negotiators emerge blinking and rumpled, have the EU say what a tough negotiation it was and that the UK wrung the very most they could get, well played lads.

Hopefully no-one will notice that the deal is the same stuff the EU offered a year ago.

kunst nugget

demfad wrote: »

If after the UK crashes out and has it's disastrous deal with the US: a UK Donald Trump type character or worse emerges and blames the EU for the UKs woes, then it will be very much the EU's problem.

Unless they go to war with the EU, what can they really do when they are on the outside looking in?

An Ciarraioch

November summit confirmed for 17th and 18th.

demfad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Indeed though we already have that character in the form of Boris Johnson who has proven that he will say literally anything he thinks will help him get elected PM as long as he doesn't have to actually do anything. Harmonious relations between the UK and the EU are important for obvious reasons.

I understand about Boris. What I mean is another generation growing up in an even more unequal society with the Right Wing Rulers blaming immigrants and the EU (and perhaps Ireland). These people will be even more furious and the UK is a major nuclear and military power.
It may be too late with May blaming the backstop.

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

November summit confirmed for 17th and 18th.

This guarantees no progress in October.

Zubeneschamali

demfad wrote: »

These people will be even more furious and the UK is a major nuclear and military power.

Nah, this is pure fearmongering. The UK is never going to war with the EU.

Water John

The Nov dates have the advantage of being a real deadline. Everyone knows those are the dates to work to. No false deadlines.

kunst nugget

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nah, this is pure fearmongering. The UK is never going to war with the EU.

Yeah, as much as Trump is a complete loolah, I've never being in fear of him starting a nuclear war.

LuckyLloyd

demfad wrote: »

UK Government are planning to go ahead with this. This would spell the end of the UK as we know it. Disastrous implications for NI and erecting a high unsurmountable regulations wall between NI and ROI should NI not stay in SM.

This is what Brexit is really about. Quite the coup in many respects. Leverage nationalism, racism and 8 years of austerity to manipulate the working class to vote for something and then utterly destroy all of their employment protections and social safety nets with the fallout of it. And make money. Lots and lots and lots of money. The anger when they finally realise what was done to them will be extreme.

demfad

kunst nugget wrote: »

Unless they go to war with the EU, what can they really do when they are on the outside looking in?

If an autocracy rises in the UK is war such an outlandish notion?
There is a decent chance they will be in partnership with an autocratic regime in the US (we will know soon enough). The EU doesn't have an army. We have enemies to the East also. They can threaten us with a lot apart from war.
A major rift between the US and the UK would threaten NATO.

In this scenario the EU would be subject to an embargo of Information warfare designed to undermine it. The breakup of the EU would be in the US/UK interest after all.

We are at war now with the coordinated disinformation etc coming from the US admin and propaganda machines and the Russian State.
These next few minutes are almost existential: One path might be the green road of sustainable global society. The other oligarchy, and probable destruction.

The EU must be strategic from now on keeping the bigger picture in view.

Imreoir2

demfad wrote: »

I understand about Boris. What I mean is another generation growing up in an even more unequal society with the Right Wing Rulers blaming immigrants and the EU (and perhaps Ireland). These people will be even more furious and the UK is a major nuclear and military power.
It may be too late with May blaming the backstop.

Not likely, not to mention that the UK's ability to project force will be seveerly impacted by the economic damage caused by Brexit. You can't be a major power when you can't pay for it.

British military capasity has fallen drasticly in the last two decades and will fall even more post Brexit. There is no scenario where this ever comes to the use of military force. The UK will continue to decline and they will simply have to lump it.

briany

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

This is what Brexit is really about. Quite the coup in many respects. Leverage nationalism, racism and 8 years of austerity to manipulate the working class to vote for something and then utterly destroy all of their employment protections and social safety nets with the fallout of it. And make money. Lots and lots and lots of money. The anger when they finally realise what was done to them will be extreme.

I don't know if it's ever going to get to the point that in the event of dystopian post-Brexit Britain, Brexit voters will turn on their leaders as if to say, "You knowingly tricked us." They might turn on them and accuse them of gross incompetence, though, but being grossly incompetent at least contains the possibility that you were acting in good faith, and therefore maybe get away without having a baying mob at the front gate of your private estate.

Also, the evidence is already there for lying, money-grabs, and power-grabs. If Brexiteers aren't bothered to pick up on that evidence before Brexit actually happens, does anyone think they'll do it afterwards? I think they'll be far too busy blaming the EU for taking a punitive stance in negotiations, and Remain supporters for sabotaging things internally. It's been a masterful performance by certain newspapers and politicians to create this deep division in the UK, ensuring that the real villains of the piece will never be brought to account.

mrbrianj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nah, this is pure fearmongering. The UK is never going to war with the EU.

Not unless the Russians want them to...

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

the real villains of the piece will never be brought to account.

I'd agree. The British character will prevent them from voting again and also from admitting that they were fooled. Form an orderly queue to Brexit, stiff upper lip for the economic damage, keep calm and carry on.

We'd have reversed the decision with a 2nd referendum and had a good laugh at the whole balls-up by now.

kunst nugget

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We'd have reversed the decision with a 2nd referendum and had a good laugh at the whole balls-up by now.

Yeah, right... I still hear people giving out that the EU forced us to keep on voting until we gave the right answer in the two referendum in relation to Nice and Lisbon.

briany

Al Murray (of all people) made a good point about political discourse in the UK and it's that neither side is taking the other's arguments in good faith. It's all "you've been lied to", "you're a liar", "you're naive", "you're stupid", "you're with the Russians", "you're on an earner", "you're trying to sabotage Brexit". Not that we haven't always suspected ulterior motives in certain political actions, but with the Internet, with the information war, and the subsequent Balkanisation of opinion, it feels like it's hit a new level in the UK.

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Again, no. Once the UK is out, they are a 3rd country like any other and their internal politics are not the EUs problem.

If the UK descends into Mad Max anarchy and refugees pour across the English Channel, that would be a problem, but I think we can all agree that is unlikely.

Once they are out they are not in the EU's juristinction which does not mean they will not be problematic. Howver, while the UK are in, the EU can and are managing the perception that the blame for potential economic disaster and national humiliation can be laid at their door.
Again a rise in far-right populism in the UK even as a third country is very much a problem for the EU, just as Russia and the Trump administration are problematic now. The EU cannot afford to be careless and allow authoritarians an easier path to power in future.

BTW If there is a no-deal crash out and the Russians decide to cut comms and/or initiate a notpetya type virus you will see some mad max.


We are in the midst of the first world information war: relevant casualties to date are the EU referendum; The US presidential election; with large orchestrated fissures in these two societies.

This has been achieved without landing a soldiers boot in either country.

Enzokk

VinLieger wrote: »

That would make the whole new plan of having checks between the UK and NI absolutely pointless, its almost like none of them know what the others are up to.

Also agreed it will destroy the UK produce industry, cant wait to see them wondering why all their traditional foodstuffs suddenly taste sh1te while paying 50% less for them

Leroy42 wrote: »

^ and that is why, IMO, all this compromising and working together by the EU towards the UK is pointless.

A large driver of BRexit is wanting to Take Back Control, and in order to get better trade deals that the UK currently have they will need to drop standards. It is only a matter of time before large differences exist. What the UK are hoping for is that small divergences won't, of themselves, be enough to create a problem.

But this is only going one way if the UK are allowed to special treatment.

murphaph wrote: »

What a slimy weasel. If US beef was legal in the UK then what's to stop UK farmers also treating their cattle with hormones? It would be impossible to prevent this. It would become impossible to know if you were eating hormone treated beef or not (never mind in catering where the cheaper US beef would become the norm of course and you couldn't even rely on the packaging).

Another interesting part in the story about Liam Fox wanting to lower food regulations is that the department within the UK after working against each other.

"DEFRA and DIT are not pals," a source who has worked with DIT said.

"DEFRA have a big trade team now which sees its mandate as stopping DIT from doing silly things. BEIS (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy) are also gearing up to battle DIT, but are further behind in the process.

So DIT is the Department for International Trade and DEFRA is the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. I do wonder though seeing that Michael Gove is the Minister for DEFRA whether this is just a ploy by him to get the support from the rural vote but his intentions are really lined up with Liam Fox.

But this is what you get when you have a mix of different ministers of different political views in your cabinet. They will fight against each other which will make your life difficult instead of having people that share the same outlook and goal. Theresa May has tried to get a mix of Remainers and Brexiteers in her cabinet and this has contributed to her problems. She would have been better off deciding which way she wanted to go with Brexit and getting the people in place to ensure that she is able to chart a way for her plans. Instead, we have a mess.

Also, even if the regulations are lowered without parliament approval, the House of Lords will just knock it back. This would probably only relate to decisions made with the Henry the 8th powers though.

A senior source in the House of Lords warned that peers would also block any move by Fox to redesign the country's food standards using Henry the 8th powers."It will go down like a bucket of sick," they told BI.

"For Henry the 8th powers to be abused like that would go down very badly in the House of Lords."

demfad wrote: »

If after the UK crashes out and has it's disastrous deal with the US: a UK Donald Trump type character or worse emerges and blames the EU for the UKs woes, then it will be very much the EU's problem.

I doubt the UK will start a war with any EU nation and any economical impact will be lost against the EU. There isn't much to fear from the UK once the dust settles on a hard Brexit. Most of the other nations will favour the EU in trade as the market is bigger for the EU. The UK will be torn between the US and EU standards. This is what people have been trying to get across to the UK voters but they have refused to listen or educate themselves. I mean when you have the Northern Ireland Secretary not being aware of the sectarian divide in Northern Ireland what do you expect of the rest of the population?

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

This is what Brexit is really about. Quite the coup in many respects. Leverage nationalism, racism and 8 years of austerity to manipulate the working class to vote for something and then utterly destroy all of their employment protections and social safety nets with the fallout of it. And make money. Lots and lots and lots of money. The anger when they finally realise what was done to them will be extreme.

Many books and articles will be written (and has been already) but the chips have fallen just right for those opportunists to take advantage of the voting public. At any other time you will not have an even close vote on EU membership but as you mention the austerity and then to have the immigration crises in Europe happen at the same time was just bad timing. The EU will need to take a little responsibility in their response to the crises which helped fuel the narrative that they are actually useless.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I'd agree. The British character will prevent them from voting again and also from admitting that they were fooled. Form an orderly queue to Brexit, stiff upper lip for the economic damage, keep calm and carry on.

We'd have reversed the decision with a 2nd referendum and had a good laugh at the whole balls-up by now.

On the Remainiacs podcast they had a guest on that used to present shows about scams. He remarked that telling someone they were stupid and fell for a scam, which is what Brexit is, will not help to change their mind. It will in fact just cement their position. That is what you are seeing with the Leave vote not shifting. People are pulling the blinkers over their eyes because they don't want to feel like an idiot so they will continue being an idiot, as long as they aren't made to look and feel like one.

demfad

briany wrote: »

Al Murray (of all people) made a good point about political discourse in the UK and it's that neither side is taking the other's arguments in good faith. It's all "you've been lied to", "you're a liar", "you're naive", "you're stupid", "you're with the Russians", "you're on an earner", "you're trying to sabotage Brexit". Not that we haven't always suspected ulterior motives in certain political actions, but with the Internet, with the information war, and the subsequent Balkanisation of opinion, it feels like it's hit a new level in the UK.

Yes. And the phrase you hear even in Ireland is that you really can't believe anything anymore. And this is one of the effects and goals of information warfare.
It is an attack on the free press, rendering them impotent. So many lies are spread not for you to believe one story, but for you to believe no story.
And if you can't trust anything, you tend to trust a strong appearing leader. And this is the breeding ground for authoritanarianism and fascism. These are the conditions prevalent in Great Britian and the US today.

Enzokk

demfad wrote: »

Yes. And the phrase you hear even in Ireland is that you really can't believe anything anymore. And this is one of the effects and goals of information warfare.
It is an attack on the free press, rendering them impotent.
And if you can't trust anything, you tend to trust a strong appearing leader. And this is the breeding ground for authoritanarianism and fascism. These are the conditions prevalent in Great Britian and the US today.

It is interesting that the 2 countries where you can be surprised that the Russians have been able to influence elections share a lot of traits. Both believe they are special and superior to the rest. So when you have been telling people they are special just because of where they are from their whole lives, is it any surprise that if someone swindles their perception of the world that they are not special any longer that they will get angry? What if that same person tells you that they can return you to the top?

It's a scam but people will not want to see it. Russia is trying to plant misinformation as well but the foundations of Trump and Brexit is making white people fear their place in their own country. In the USA it was fear of Obama and in the UK it was the fear of the immigrant. Add a dash of Russian misinformation and you have chaos. Russia has always been trying to spread their influence all over the world, so their interference is nothing new. The impact they had is new and the world will need to learn from the results of the past few years to not have it happen again and again.

An Ciarraioch

Reading Open Europe's Twitter a/c, it seems patience is rapidly diminishing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/OpenEurope

briany

demfad wrote: »

Yes. And the phrase you hear even in Ireland is that you really can't believe anything anymore. And this is one of the effects and goals of information warfare.
It is an attack on the free press, rendering them impotent. So many lies are spread not for you to believe one story, but for you to believe no story.
And if you can't trust anything, you tend to trust a strong appearing leader. And this is the breeding ground for authoritanarianism and fascism. These are the conditions prevalent in Great Britian and the US today.

'Post-truth' has got to be one of the most frightening phrases of modern times. If George Orwell were alive today, he'd have an absolute fit over it. It wasn't just in 1984 he had written about the ploy of the manipulation of information, but it's all throughout his many opinion pieces and essays as well. And a lot of those writings have not dated.

But the question is what is to be done in about a war of misinformation?Documentarian Adam Curtis points to a man named Vladislav Surkov, one of Putin's advisors, as a leading strategist in what Curtis calls nonlinear warfare. It basically involves deliberately agitating on both the Left and Right by funding or creating groups and individuals, sowing division, and then letting it be known that this is what you're doing, so that both sides become disillusioned and suspecting, cynical about arguments presented by the other side fearing they're being trolled.

This is the strategy Russia has been accused of employing on social media and it's worked to a tee on everybody. Truth has been wounded.

Not to pessimistic, but I can't see an effective response for it at the moment. People can put more faith into newspapers, but they're always accused of having their own slant. People can attempt to cross reference more sources, but a lot of people just don't have the time or inclination to that kind of work if they're busy with jobs and families, but many of those people still vote and so their opinion matters.

demfad

https://twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1042734650731454465

Fox calling leaks from his own department about his plans to cut drastically lower food (and other) standards to align for a Cato FTA with the US as "Fake news".

The news has been apparently circulating the Country delegations in Salzburg further undermining trust between the EU and UK.

As the Financial Times reports, “the election of Donald Trump has transformed the fortunes of Liam Fox”. He is now “an indispensable member of Theresa May’s front bench team”. The shadow diplomatic mission he developed through The Atlantic Bridge plugs him straight into the Trump administration.

Long before Trump won, campaign funding in the US had systematically corrupted the political system. A new analysis by US political scientists finds an almost perfect linear relationship, across 32 years, between the money gathered by the two parties for congressional elections and their share of the vote. But there has also been a shift over these years: corporate donors have come to dominate this funding.

By tying our fortunes to those of the United States, the government binds us into this system. This is part of what Brexit is about: European laws protecting the public interest were portrayed by Conservative Eurosceptics as intolerable intrusions on corporate freedom. Taking back control from Europe means closer integration with the US. The transatlantic special relationship is a special relationship between political and corporate power.

In April 1938, President Franklin Roosevelt sent the US Congress the following warning. “The liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is fascism.” It is a warning we would do well to remember.
https://www.monbiot.com/2017/02/04/dark-arts/

Current Ministers Gove and Grayling were also on the board of the Atlantic Bridge.