Brexit discussion thread IV

Imreoir2

brickster69 wrote: »

You're not, you are Ireland. You decide where and if a  border goes on your territory. How can you give that up to another party ?

We are the EU. We are part of the EU and abide by the rules of an organisation of which we are members and which is vital to our national interests.

Hurrache

Stop bullying us, says the DUP. You gotta laugh at the DUP crying about someone else being unreasonable and inflexible.

https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1042851020324450311?s=19

Sassygirl1999

varadkar is right in the firing line after exposing Mays lack of a plan
May wants to change the rules of the club on exit, come on May, its September now and winter is coming!

Anthracite

brickster69 wrote: »

You're not, you are Ireland. You decide where and if a  border goes on your territory. How can you give that up to another party ?

Scotland and Wales did it. What are you saying about them?

An Ciarraioch

kowtow wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

The EU has borders presently the UK polices the EU borders of which the UK is the EU.


I'm not sure why this is so difficult.

Difficult aside

As late as yesterday Varadkar said we were investing in infrastructure for no deal - and added hurriedly something like "but not a border, well never do that!"... I may not have his words exactly.

In the event of a no deal who do you think will be the first to put infrastructure on the border? And if it's us, will it be politically manageable?

To deal with traffic coming from GB to RoI - unless they backtrack and revert to a CU, that will be required regardless.

Water John

TM is said to have failed in Salzberg on BBC News. Clip with the views of many PMs. Her press con was a car crash.

kowtow

Water John wrote: »

TM is said to have failed in Salzberg on BBC News. Clip with the views of many PMs. Her press con was a car crash.

The press con was the worst of it. She was visibly surprised at the push back.

I can honestly think of nobody who as any confidence whatsoever in her ability to negotiate this any longer. It may be that it's impossible anyway, and it may be that she doesn't bear all the blame.. but she's the wrong woman in the wrong place at the wrong time.

judeboy101

flutered wrote: »

has not poland offered trump $2m to open an american base there

2million? That's pretty cheap even by the Donald's standards.

Water John

I think Laura Kuenssberg was of the opinion she might not survive 48 hours.

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

TM is said to have failed in Salzberg on BBC News. Clip with the views of many PMs. Her press con was a car crash.

Im shocked how badly this went. Kinda shocked that BBC are reporting it in the way they are too. Laura Kuenssburg's Twitter is really critical and goes with the 'May fucķed up' angle. This is reaching fever pitch.

Kermit.de.frog

Boris making hos move at the weekend.

Water John

Well she had the EU willing to give her a fair wind. This tends to be what they do as they understand each has domestic politics to deal with. But she messed it up, obviously pushing to having last minute scrambing negotiations in November/December.
They smelt it .
Some UK paper rags spinning that TM was shafted!!!

Mr.Nice Guy

Coveney coming up on Newsnight.

bilston

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

varadkar is right in the firing line after exposing Mays lack of a plan
May wants to change the rules of the club on exit, come on May, its September now and winter is coming!

Being from NI I'm very much a Remainer, I'm not happy about Brexit at all, but what exactly should May do? On the one hand the Brexit were say Chequers doesn't go far enough for them, and on the other hand the EU say it's not acceptable.

I genuinely do not know what she can possibly do here. She cannot appease both sides. The fact is the arithmetic in the House of Commons means that if she gives the EU what they want then Parliament will oppose her. If she gives into the Brexit were the EU will say no deal.

I feel sorry for her. Houdini couldn't get out of this one.

Enzokk

I cannot believe Labour has done a Theresa May by shooting themselves in the foot. Why would Jeremy Corbyn rule out a second vote? Is he going to die by falling on his ideological sword as well? It's all good and well to want to change the UK to a more socialist country, but how are you going to pay for all of his plans? Idiots, the lot of them.

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

Being from NI I'm very much a Remainer, I'm not happy about Brexit at all, but what exactly should May do? On the one hand the Brexit were say Chequers doesn't go far enough for them, and on the other hand the EU say it's not acceptable.

I genuinely do not know what she can possibly do here. She cannot appease both sides. The fact is the arithmetic in the House of Commons means that if she gives the EU what they want then Parliament will oppose her. If she gives into the Brexit were the EU will say no deal.

I feel sorry for her. Houdini couldn't get out of this one.

She needs to do what she hasn't done from the get go - lead.
You cannot please all of the people all of the time.

Hurrache

Any ideas as to why Sinn Fein opposed a motion in Belfast City Council this evening calling for a second referendum? I'm hardly cynical in thinking they want a no deal Brexit thinking it would lead towards a united Ireland?

Enzokk

bilston wrote: »

Being from NI I'm very much a Remainer, I'm not happy about Brexit at all, but what exactly should May do? On the one hand the Brexit were say Chequers doesn't go far enough for them, and on the other hand the EU say it's not acceptable.

I genuinely do not know what she can possibly do here. She cannot appease both sides. The fact is the arithmetic in the House of Commons means that if she gives the EU what they want then Parliament will oppose her. If she gives into the Brexit were the EU will say no deal.

I feel sorry for her. Houdini couldn't get out of this one.

She could get a soft Brexit through parliament if she was willing to work with those MPs not wanting a hard Brexit. Corbyn would vote against her, but many Labour MPs would do what is best for the country, as would moderate Conservative MPs.

Her problem is that she will face a vote of confidence from her own MPs who, while they wouldn't be able to stop a soft Brexit, they could force a leadership challenge. She was screwed either way, but a lot of that is her own making.

bilston

FrancieBrady wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Being from NI I'm very much a Remainer, I'm not happy about Brexit at all, but what exactly should May do? On the one hand the Brexit were say Chequers doesn't go far enough for them, and on the other hand the EU say it's not acceptable.

I genuinely do not know what she can possibly do here. She cannot appease both sides. The fact is the arithmetic in the House of Commons means that if she gives the EU what they want then Parliament will oppose her. If she gives into the Brexit were the EU will say no deal.

I feel sorry for her. Houdini couldn't get out of this one.

She needs to do what she hasn't done from the get go - lead.
You cannot please all of the people all of the time.

Of course you can't. But for the House of Commons to pass a deal with the EU that the EU supports...I just don't think it's possible.

Anthracite

bilston wrote: »

Being from NI I'm very much a Remainer, I'm not happy about Brexit at all, but what exactly should May do? On the one hand the Brexit were say Chequers doesn't go far enough for them, and on the other hand the EU say it's not acceptable.

I genuinely do not know what she can possibly do here. She cannot appease both sides. The fact is the arithmetic in the House of Commons means that if she gives the EU what they want then Parliament will oppose her. If she gives into the Brexit were the EU will say no deal.

I feel sorry for her. Houdini couldn't get out of this one.

It's hard to see past the need for a national government in the UK, but under whose leadership?

bilston

Enzokk wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Being from NI I'm very much a Remainer, I'm not happy about Brexit at all, but what exactly should May do? On the one hand the Brexit were say Chequers doesn't go far enough for them, and on the other hand the EU say it's not acceptable.

I genuinely do not know what she can possibly do here. She cannot appease both sides. The fact is the arithmetic in the House of Commons means that if she gives the EU what they want then Parliament will oppose her. If she gives into the Brexit were the EU will say no deal.

I feel sorry for her. Houdini couldn't get out of this one.

She could get a soft Brexit through parliament if she was willing to work with those MPs not wanting a hard Brexit. Corbyn would vote against her, but many Labour MPs would do what is best for the country, as would moderate Conservative MPs.

Her problem is that she will face a vote of confidence from her own MPs who, while they wouldn't be able to stop a soft Brexit, they could force a leadership challenge. She was screwed either way, but a lot of that is her own making.

It's her own making because she called a General Election and messed it up. But even before that election she had a wafer thin majority so may have faced the same problems.

Imreoir2

bilston wrote: »

Of course you can't. But for the House of Commons to pass a deal with the EU that the EU supports...I just don't think it's possible.

Then call a general election, let each candidate answer to the people if they would vote for a deal acceptable to the EU or lead the UK out on a no-deal basis and let the people vote accordingly.

bilston

Anthracite wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Being from NI I'm very much a Remainer, I'm not happy about Brexit at all, but what exactly should May do? On the one hand the Brexit were say Chequers doesn't go far enough for them, and on the other hand the EU say it's not acceptable.

I genuinely do not know what she can possibly do here. She cannot appease both sides. The fact is the arithmetic in the House of Commons means that if she gives the EU what they want then Parliament will oppose her. If she gives into the Brexit were the EU will say no deal.

I feel sorry for her. Houdini couldn't get out of this one.

It's hard to see past the need for a national government in the UK, but under whose leadership?

Unless there is another election it would probably have to be under a Tory, but I doubt Corbyn would ever go for that, nor would the Tories. The two parties leaderships are so far apart I don't see it working.

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

Of course you can't. But for the House of Commons to pass a deal with the EU that the EU supports...I just don't think it's possible.

Then it is the time to get off the pot and let the next person try and then the next.
You take a definite position and you stake your leadership on it.

bilston

Imreoir2 wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Of course you can't. But for the House of Commons to pass a deal with the EU that the EU supports...I just don't think it's possible.

Then call a general election, let each candidate answer to the people if they would vote for a deal acceptable to the EU or lead the UK out on a no-deal basis and let the people vote accordingly.

Yep, that's probably the best option. But it may already be too late. To do that Britain would have to request to delay Brexit, and the EU would have to agree.

bilston

FrancieBrady wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Of course you can't. But for the House of Commons to pass a deal with the EU that the EU supports...I just don't think it's possible.

Then it is the time to get off the pot and let the next person try and then the next.
You take a definite position and you stake your leadership on it.

Unless the make up of the HoCs changes it won't matter.

As Imreoir says a general election is required. But the Tories would never let May lead them into another election. Who replaces her? Let's be careful what we wish for here!

LuckyLloyd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't get the logic behind Tusk effectively throwing May under the bus before the Tory conference. From what I gather the expectation was they would keep Chequers on life support and torpedo it in October. I can understand wanting to focus minds but the atmosphere in Westminster is so febrile that this might actually lead to the opposite and create more instability.

Are they gambling that if they really ratchet things up the British public will push for this People's Vote? I think it's too late for that.

At a certain point the internal machinations of the Conservative party were going to become deeply irrelevant. We're beyond that point. The UK as an entity has not put forward any credible proposals around the backstop and a withdrawal agreement can therefore not be concluded meaning No Deal. Their submission on the future relationship asks for numerous things it simply cannot be granted.

Time to call bull**** out for what it is and articulate the desire for a second referendum. What the UK does with that is frankly its own concern. No Deal is now the likelihood so there's no point beating around the bush any longer.

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

Unless the make up of the HoCs changes it won't matter.

As Imreoir says a general election is required. But the Tories would never let May lead them into another election. Who replaces her? Let's be careful what we wish for here!

That is a different issue. You asked what can May do?

kowtow

May's problem is that she massively overestimates her own abilities, and she micromanages.

She is also naturally awkward and lacks an extrovert's sense of humor.

In a lot of ways she is the Tory answer to Gordon Brown, a man who I disliked thoroughly.

I'm beginning to have a little sympathy for both of them now to be honest.

Water John

Dominic Grieve would be a good National Government PM. Highly unlikely to happen.
Sad fact as said above the vast majority of MPs would support a soft Brexit.