Brexit discussion thread IV

Enzokk

Water John wrote: »

This Week BBC very good tonight. Quality discussion, no noise. Canada or Norway deal with a few twists, depending how near or far from the EU, that UK wants to end up. TM has to choose which she goes for.

Depends on whether she will stick to her red lines. If not, Norway. If she does insist on them then Canada, but what about NI? Back to square one...again.

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Corbyn rules out a second referendum - cue voter exodus to the Lib Dems?

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1042806209240342528

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGCPfRu1BAg

Corbyn has never shown any real desire to stay in the EU.

He's willing to sacrifice things like The Working Time Directive on the off chance that if there's a Labour landslide and they get in power and manage to nationalise some industries for the benefit of the unions, then maybe, just maybe the Tories won't privatise again when they get back in.

The Lib Dems have 12 seats out of 650. They are totally irrelevant unless there are mass defections in Conservative or Labour.

Or unless they do a deal with the Tories to replace the DUP.
The SNP could too. But Brexit is Brexit.

Awesomeness

https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1042839541143547904?s=19

The gloves really came off today.

Infini

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Macron was brilliant today. A harsh dose of direct plain speaking reality. Such a shame to see the UK succumb to this nonsense but they soon will cease to be our problem. Ireland will survive this stupidity, the UK will not.

I dont always agree with the French argument's and such but lets be honest, fair play to Macron for finally dropping the PR theatrics and calling out the Brexiteers as they are.

I honestly think the only chance the UK has of turning around at this point is for them to get a taste of what they actually wanting to experience the 29th of March the ONLY way the MP's in parliment will ever get their act together and collectively face down these idiots and muppets trying to cash in on this farce is if they're made to take some bloody responsiblity and either abort Brexit or have another referendum.

Corbyn needs to get his act together. He can say there will be no 2nd referendum but either he starts acting like an opposition leader and actually agree's or I could see his own party either tell him to do it or get the sack. If the threat of economic chaos wont get him to change his mind then I could see him getting his P45 like May sooner rathe than later.

Capt'n Midnight

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Britain needs to be very careful that inertia doesn't build behind EU member states wanting a no-deal Brexit. How long before the Italians or Spanish start winking at Nissan/Honda/Airbus/Land Rover?

They won't.


Jaguar have clearly suggested that a quarter of a million jobs would be impacted when they move more production to Poland.

For Nissan/Honda the new EU-Japan FTA means cars can be exported from Japan tariff free.

Airbus have facilities in Toulouse and Hamburg so more France and Germany. But they do have stuff in Spain. Italy has a lot of aerospace too.


For all the other UK car companies Eastern Europe is cheaper, as is Turkey which is in a customs union with the EU for manufacture.

ALL of the volume UK car makers are foreign owned, from the Black Taxies to Rolls Royce.

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

Dominic Grieve would be a good National Government PM. Highly unlikely to happen.
Sad fact as said above the vast majority of MPs would support a soft Brexit.

Im pretty much guessing you started at the top of the Tory party and worked your way down untill you crossed someone who wasnt immediately objectionable. Grieve seems like a competent, decent guy, but there's nothing to suggest he can step in here.

Raab seems like a nice guy too but whats to come of him? He must know he's been thrown into a hopeless situation, arguing what he knows is nonsense. He sweated a bucket releasing that first tranche of 'Brexit readiness papers'. Speaking of those... when can we expect the next tranche?

J Mysterio

Watching May's face as Faisal Islam questioned her today. Jesus. The pressure has become too great, I cant see her lasting any time at all.

Questions from 2:00. Its just painful to watch

"Yes, concerns have been raised, I want to know what those concerns are".

J Mysterio

Interestingly, speaking of Russia's 'Information War', the above video uploaded by RT, the best coverage on YouTube and available right quick.

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

Interestingly, speaking of Russia's 'Information War', the above video uploaded by RT, the best coverage on YouTube and available right quick.

RT: Russian Trollvision Wouldn't be suprised if they're trying to get in their own little jab themselves. As for May herself I get a feeling of "It's at this moment Teresa knew: "She fúcked up."" from that video.

J Mysterio

Infini wrote: »

RT: Russian Trollvision Wouldn't be suprised if they're trying to get in their own little jab themselves. As for May herself I get a feeling of "It's at this moment Teresa knew: "She fúcked up."" from that video.

Nobody needs to troll that tbh, speaks for itself. This just goes on and on and gets worse and worse.

Zubeneschamali

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

QT is not representable of the folk in the UK

This. The QT audience has been packed with UKippers and Brexiteers for years.

Nody

J Mysterio wrote: »

Im pretty much guessing you started at the top of the Tory party and worked your way down untill you crossed someone who wasnt immediately objectionable. Grieve seems like a competent, decent guy, but there's nothing to suggest he can step in here.

Raab seems like a nice guy too but whats to come of him? He must know he's been thrown into a hopeless situation, arguing what he knows is nonsense. He sweated a bucket releasing that first tranche of 'Brexit readiness papers'. Speaking of those... when can we expect the next tranche?

Well second one was on 13th and the third and final is suppose to be the most contriversial one; not sure she wants it out before the Tory conference is over to give ammo to the Brexiteer brigade of "ah see how bad it would be but our plan will work"

L1011

Anthracite wrote: »

Before??

How long since, more like. If I were Leo Varadkar I'd be flinging cash at the car manufacturers to open a plant in Ireland.

Apparently Nissan were about to announce a move to Cork when the UK handed them a blank cheque last year

You really need nuclear power to be building cars though, hugely electricity intensive

J Mysterio

Donald Tusk's instagram mocking May:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bn8Luwbjzf9/?hl=en

For one, im surprised Tusk has an Instagram account. For two, this seems a little bit too 'cheeky' for a serious diplomat in the current conditions.

Sam Russell

J Mysterio wrote: »

Donald Tusk's instagram mocking May:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bn8Luwbjzf9/?hl=en

For one, im surprised Tusk has an Instagram account. For two, this seems a little bit too 'cheeky' for a serious diplomat in the current conditions.

No question but the gloves are off now for the EU. Tusk has always been prepared to put the boot in.

LeinsterDub

Brexit: May humiliated by Salzburg ambush as she fights to save Chequers

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush

There's a lot of similar comments to this in the British media. May to save Chequers etc. Surely the people reporting this know that Chequers was dead on arrival and it was only but out of mutual strategic interest did the EU agree to put the patient. A patient with no hope of recovery on life support. Yesterday TM declared that patient brain death so bother anymore?

prawnsambo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Donald Tusk's instagram mocking May:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bn8Luwbjzf9/?hl=en

For one, im surprised Tusk has an Instagram account. For two, this seems a little bit too 'cheeky' for a serious diplomat in the current conditions.

It has to be hugely frustrating for EU negotiators. Set out the options at a very early stage and then sit around for years as the UK tries to cherry pick bits that aren't on offer, go over the heads of the negotiators and engage in non-stop megaphone 'diplomacy'.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Watching May's face as Faisal Islam questioned her today. Jesus. The pressure has become too great, I cant see her lasting any time at all.

Questions from 2:00. Its just painful to watch

"Yes, concerns have been raised, I want to know what those concerns are".

Thank you for the upload. It is still amazing for me that she doesn't know what the EU concerns are regarding her plan. If she and her advisers doesn't know why the EU has concerns they are either lying or they are so blinkered they cannot see the problem. Again it doesn't paint her in a brilliant light at all.

Corb_lund

Enzokk wrote: »

Thank you for the upload. It is still amazing for me that she doesn't know what the EU concerns are regarding her plan. If she and her advisers doesn't know why the EU has concerns they are either lying or they are so blinkered they cannot see the problem. Again it doesn't paint her in a brilliant light at all.

Also strikes me a bit as the EU negotiators being deliberately obtuse in what problems are. Which makes sense as they're not responsible to an electorate or shítty red top rags at home...

fash

It's annoying that even the remainer UK newspapers are calling it an "ambush".
May came to Salzburg forcefully stating two delusions:
"Chequers or nothing" and actually meaning it!
"Remember that promise I made to have a backstop by June at the latest, then September at the latest, then October at the latest- well that is not happening. Also your new suggestion (de-dramatised "checks") is entirely unacceptable"

The EU had some sympathy for her coming into Salzburg, praising parts of Chequers with a "at least you tried" and "the fonts you used on the document are pretty" while indicating it wouldn't fly, but how do you deal with that level of delusion on an important matter?
And for even reasonably balanced people to call the "let's lose some of the diplomacy, it unfortunately didn't work" as an "ambush is disturbing.

FreudianSlippers

demfad wrote: »

BMW: Some product parts add so much cost and/or time that it will make it unprofitable for businesses to cross trade/non-trade barriers. Just in time manufacturing (practiced by all vehicle manufacturers)is one of these. Suppliers have to deliver to the vehicle production line at exactly the right time to avoid stopping the line. They can't afford known or unknown delays. These suppliers are supplied by Tier 2 suppliers. They simply can't afford the costs.
It's a no-brainer for BMW to move the month forward. Note there is no solution for after the month bar no-deal being reversed.

This is correct, but BMW additionally uses this period to re-tool for LCI updates on their vehicles IIRC.

Ireland should be lobbying to get this BMW factory!

Zubeneschamali

fash wrote: »

May came to Salzburg forcefully stating two delusions:
"Chequers or nothing" and actually meaning it!
"Remember that promise I made to have a backstop by June at the latest, then September at the latest, then October at the latest- well that is not happening. Also your new suggestion (de-dramatised "checks") is entirely unacceptable"

I think the EU (like myself) had hopes that May knew what was going on, and was simply using Chequers to keep things on track through the summer.

But with the October Summit, the original final deadline, 4 weeks away, May has still got nothing, and she told Varadkar she would still have nothing in 4 weeks time.

Well, if we arrive at the deadline with nothing, it all collapses anyway. It makes sense for the EU to apply pressure now while the UK still has a couple of weeks to fold - the worst that can happen is what May is saying she'll do anyhow - nothing.

kowtow

fash wrote: »

It's annoying that even the remainer UK newspapers are calling it an "ambush".
May came to Salzburg forcefully stating two delusions:
"Chequers or nothing" and actually meaning it!
"Remember that promise I made to have a backstop by June at the latest, then September at the latest, then October at the latest- well that is not happening. Also your new suggestion (de-dramatised "checks") is entirely unacceptable"

The EU had some sympathy for her coming into Salzburg, praising parts of Chequers with a "at least you tried" and "the fonts you used on the document are pretty" while indicating it wouldn't fly, but how do you deal with that level of delusion on an important matter?
And for even reasonably balanced people to call the "let's lose some of the diplomacy, it unfortunately didn't work" as an "ambush is disturbing.

It is an ambush in so far as it is a failure of diplomacy (on both sides, I suspect). Both the EU offer and Chequers have been well publicised, they could have been rejected quietly behind the scenes without grandstanding on the day or having an aide stage photographs of Donald Tusk attempting to press pieces of cake on a diabetic in order to make a point.

In retrospect she should probably have walked out and done her press conference in London, but hindsight is easy.

She did the next best thing upon her return which is to call attention to the atmospherics, and present the bunch of EU suits as a load of automaton robots engaged in an ambush.

All trivial perhaps, but if there was to be another in/out referendum tomorrow those theatrics will have shifted opinion just slightly further towards Brexit. And, absent another referendum, the straight talking them and us presentation of the JRM and the hardliners looks that bit more attractive.

Call me Al

prawnsambo wrote: »

It has to be hugely frustrating for EU negotiators. Set out the options at a very early stage and then sit around for years as the UK tries to cherry pick bits that aren't on offer, go over the heads of the negotiators and engage in non-stop megaphone 'diplomacy'.

Which tells you all you need to know about either the politicians complete lack of understanding about the EU and the structure they were a part of, or their realisation that the only way brexit is going to be a success is for them to cherry pick the bits that aren't available to 3rd countries. Or perhaps a bit of both.

There was a segment on BBC news yesterday where, amongst a few question from the public, a person tweeted in a question to the reporter covering this EU meeting. The tweet asked for details on what concessions the EU had made to the UK in these negotiations. I felt that it summed up the complete lack of understanding on the part of the British electorate as to who the weaker party in these negotiations are.
The EU don't really have to concede on anything unless it is of benefit to them. Nor should they. The UK market is a fraction of it's size. Why should it concede anything to a country that is openly saying it'll enter a trade arrangement with the US, and any other country they can get their hands on, whilst wanting all the benefits of the EU market but none of the responsibilities or the cherry-free cake?

First Up

FreudianSlippers wrote:

Ireland should be lobbying to get this BMW factory!

We won't be getting car assembly plants but there's plenty of other mobile industries up for grabs.

LuckyLloyd

kowtow wrote: »

It is an ambush in so far as it is a failure of diplomacy (on both sides, I suspect). Both the EU offer and Chequers have been well publicised, they could have been rejected quietly behind the scenes without grandstanding on the day or having an aide stage photographs of Donald Tusk attempting to press pieces of cake on a diabetic in order to make a point.

In retrospect she should probably have walked out and done her press conference in London, but hindsight is easy.

She did the next best thing upon her return which is to call attention to the atmospherics, and present the bunch of EU suits as a load of automaton robots engaged in an ambush.

All trivial perhaps, but if there was to be another in/out referendum tomorrow those theatrics will have shifted opinion just slightly further towards Brexit. And, absent another referendum, the straight talking them and us presentation of the JRM and the hardliners looks that bit more attractive.

Except polling moves towards remain by the day, week, month

lawred2

kowtow wrote: »

It is an ambush in so far as it is a failure of diplomacy (on both sides, I suspect). Both the EU offer and Chequers have been well publicised, they could have been rejected quietly behind the scenes without grandstanding on the day or having an aide stage photographs of Donald Tusk attempting to press pieces of cake on a diabetic in order to make a point.

In retrospect she should probably have walked out and done her press conference in London, but hindsight is easy.

She did the next best thing upon her return which is to call attention to the atmospherics, and present the bunch of EU suits as a load of automaton robots engaged in an ambush.

All trivial perhaps, but if there was to be another in/out referendum tomorrow those theatrics will have shifted opinion just slightly further towards Brexit. And, absent another referendum, the straight talking them and us presentation of the JRM and the hardliners looks that bit more attractive.

There was no ambush. Planned or otherwise.

The trigger was May herself proudly announcing that the UK still had nothing to offer on Ireland despite repeated promises.

May misjudged the strength of her hand and blundered.

All being on the same page and having a consistent unified message might be alien to backbiting Tories but that doesn't equate to automoton robots.

Hilarious that cohesion and consistency is something that would be derided. Such attempts serve little purpose but to highlight the dearth of clear thinking and the still lacking strategy or plan to achieve a satisfactory exit deal.

Looking at the calibre of UK politicians right now on both sides of the chamber wouldn't inspire much confidence in the UK's abilities to navigate troubled waters post Brexit.

FreudianSlippers

First Up wrote: »

We won't be getting car assembly plants but there's plenty of other mobile industries up for grabs.

IMO it doesn't mean we shouldn't be lobbying to get everything we can from the UK. From my understanding of our lobbying activities through IDA (etc.) we're not doing all we can and should be.

I'm working lobbying for a specific industry on behalf of a client and we're basically on our own in terms of government support.

First Up

kowtow wrote:

It is an ambush in so far as it is a failure of diplomacy (on both sides, I suspect). Both the EU offer and Chequers have been well publicised, they could have been rejected quietly behind the scenes without grandstanding on the day or having an aide stage photographs of Donald Tusk attempting to press pieces of cake on a diabetic in order to make a point.

The EU has been giving it to the UK straight between the eyes "behind the scenes" for the past 18 months.

We've gone way past that now.

fash

kowtow wrote: »

All trivial perhaps, but if there was to be another in/out referendum tomorrow those theatrics will have shifted opinion just slightly further towards Brexit. And, absent another referendum, the straight talking them and us presentation of the JRM and the hardliners looks that bit more attractive.

Yes, I agree with that - the EU slightly damaged its potential options. It would have been better if there was some way to burst the delusion bubble in private and at least have not been so personal in public (looking at you Donald Tusk).