Brexit discussion thread IV

keane2097

Yesterday's kicking was long overdue, and I must say I am enjoying the schadenfreude of it. If we are being realistic, it has been clear since almost the very beginning that the only two possible outcomes to this are a total British capitulation or a crash out dumpster fire.

I can understand the policy of appeasement from the EU all along, but it sadly hasn't worked, thanks mainly to the fact that mind-bogglingly the UK's political establishment appears to share the attitude we heard from this foolish old biddy months ago:

the Irish are just making trouble because they lost. It’s a bit petty isn’t it, really? Yeah, the ‘Southern Irish’ just have to lump it basically. You can’t always have what you want in life

Nobody here wants this to happen, we can all see the catastrophe that awaits Britain and obviously we regret that it is going to hurt us as well. Having said that, as we lurch towards the inevitable, I'm willing to admit the badness in me: If it does happen and we do end up hurt I will take a sizeable amount of solace and pleasure knowing that it's going to hurt the ignorant, jingoistic fools who share the arrogant 'Rule Britannia' mindset above a lot more.

I'm beginning to believe more and more that the auld bit of pain and humiliation we are desperate to shield them from might be exactly what they need.

Enzokk

So we are to assume in the event of a hard Brexit the UK will renege on the obligations that they signed with the GFA. So not only will there be the economic shock but they will tear up an international agreed treaty.

I think the overwhelming thought on here is that this was inevitable. Even with our debates with other posters about the possible deal and aftermath of Brexit it seemed clear that, as a lot of commentators now state as well in the previous links, there was really only 2 outcomes. Either the UK accept EU rules and regulations and trade deals, or they put up borders and have their own trade deals. It really is that simple.

The complicated part has always been Northern Ireland. What do you do with NI and the Good Friday Agreement? With the deal the PM did with the DUP she tied her hands and she is a dead duck. A walking corpse with no other path but no deal because that is what the ERG and DUP want. They control her destiny and she will dance to their tune.

It seems to me that she has no room to maneuver. If there is to be a deal at all it will not be with Theresa May as PM or the Conservatives as it currently stands in Westminster. She has to call an election if there is to be movement in the negotiations. Either she will strengthen her hand and she can do what she wants without the DUP and ERG interference, or Labour comes in and makes their own mess of it.

An Ciarraioch

Rumours among UK pol corrs suggest May will give a "full lectern" press conference at 1.45 - which suggests either a resignation or a GE!

trellheim

Fun fact : if the UK Govt logo is not physically on the lectern then its political matters not governmental - e.g. its a resignation or GE

E.g. with https://guardian.ng/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Theresa-May-2.jpg

without

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/8494990-3x2-940x627.jpg

the pol corrs know this and, since it comes out beforehand, will know which it is.

kowtow

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not going to repost it all, a good post and highlights many of the underlying issues at play within the UK and why the arguments about economics, or border issues etc don't seem to be making any difference.

It is also why a crash out really is the only option. No matter what the EU concede to the UK, there will be a sizable amount of the UK unhappy with the EU.

Once any deal is done, they will simply start to pick away at that as well. Simply look at how they have dealt with both the December agreement and the divorce settlement. For both, the UK are more than happy to use any compromise to drive to get even more, even going as far as to threaten to withhold payment of legal obligations.

In Ireland, whilst we see many problems with the EU there isn't that hatred that there is in the UK. Maybe it comes from the fact that in essence we have been conquered for so long that we are more open to the fact that as a small country we will always be reliant on others, be that economically or simply open to invasion. There is no the pyhsce here of being conquerors and many in the UK do really feel that in spite of them winning the war, Germany and France have effectively invaded and taken control. That is a serious image to have and very hard to argue against.

Absolutely.

Put in simple terms membership of the EU is not incompatible with our history here, whereas in the UK (mainly England) it presents all sorts of problems.

I was in the UK for a few years around the time of Maastricht and I would, like most of my peers, have been fervently against that deepening of integration. That, for me, was the point at which the political began to outbalance the economic in the makeup of the EU - and, for the UK, that was always going to be problematic.

I repeatedly - against my more basic instincts - ask myself whether a second referendum could somehow cure this problem, and I am afraid that it cannot. If there were to be a 55% vote in favour of remain now, I dread to think of the consequences in the UK - and perhaps echoed in mainland europe - once the next economic downturn takes hold.

Anyway - Theresa May is now going to hold her press conference in Downing St having got off her flight from Salzburg... let's hope for her sake she gets a more airy room than she did yesterday.

An Ciarraioch

Now confirmed as indoors, which suggests more of a general press briefing than anything else.

trellheim

shes straight into the dogs in Birmingham (tory party conference ) I'd say who will be out for blood.

I still think Robbins etc are playing a silent game , I really am wondering if we are watching lots of dead cat misdirection here, from the deep twitter stuff you would think a lot of this was expected.


PS : no-one will want to make a move till a deal or no-deal is done though, much like FF at the moment you'll see peoples arses sick of being on a fence, and she'll be the Chamberlain of current brit politics ( this narrative would suit BoJo down to the ground as his hero is Churchill)

Enzokk

Those journalists with their sources and experience were talking about resignation or maybe election, I think she will double down on either Chequers or she will announce no deal to start preparations. She will not have liked being humiliated yesterday so it really is going to be either resign or fight back.

I will in all likelihood be wrong.:o

swampgas

Guardian report on the European Press coverage of Salzburg, most of whom are saying what many here having been saying for ages: TM hadn't a hope in hell of selling her "deal" to the EU, now or ever.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/21/european-press-no-more-forgiving-than-british-over-salzburg-summit-theresa-may

The UK does seem to be in a weird bubble where Chequers is still salvageable and the EU will "have to do a deal", and will blink at second now ....

Hurrache

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Rumours among UK pol corrs suggest May will give a "full lectern" press conference at 1.45 - which suggests either a resignation or a GE!

Other rumours suggests that it'll be of the type stand firm, this is our stance, as you were type thing.

Imreoir2

It seems that the BBC has been summoned to No. 10 for a statement from the PM on Brexit Policy. Statement to be on air at 13.45 today.

Get the popcorn.

Infini

mrbrianj wrote: »

At this stage, it seems like that's what they really want. Gives the Brexit they want and the DUP would be delighted with that outcome. A large % of NI would not be happy - but they dont even go to westminster, so what matter

Unhappy would be an understatement to be fair, people would be downright pissed at this and the DUP would be most certainly public enemy no.1 for helping to cause this.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It seems that the BBC has been summoned to No. 10 for a statement from the PM on Brexit Policy. Statement to be on air at 13.45 today.

Get the popcorn.

Well we'll see how this goes but it would be intersting to see a GE called (though one way or another this would be the only way to break the deadlock, added bonus: can stick it to the Euro Troll Group as well, Even better bonus: Get rekt DUP!), if she resign's well I could see thing's getting ugly fast as there would be a leadership vaccumn and I'd assume those buisness leaders and such will assume no-deal a certainty and begin their backup plans to escape this stupidity.

The whole fiasco of her position on Salzburg just shows that everyone is getting fed up with this stupidity. We've been here 2 year's trying to sort something out but the English are simply too disorganised and incompetent to deal with. You cant argue with idiot's they just drag you down to their level, so honestly its better to let them suffer the consequences of their own stupidy and help once they've copped the hell on.

Leroy42

The whole approach by TM to the Salzburg event was very strange. Why stand up at the dinner and basically drwa new red lines to those that she needed support from?

Why tell Leo that they would have nothing ready by October, though they might be ready by November? It all seems really odd if she was counting on the continued soft words from the EU to Chequers.

Of course the EU is fed up. They are faced with a significant amount of change, significant costs, significant blow to the EU itself and all becuase of the UK. The continue to claim to want to have a great future relationship with the EU, yet have continually failed to live up to any commitment they have made during this process.

Lets not forget how forceful TM was in the Lanchaster House speech. If you were Macron etc they only way to see that was TM basically telling you that she was calling the shots and the UK were in charge. But the EU took it, and many more other instances, quietly and to accept it as part of the process that TM had to come through.

But TM seems to have mistaken that respect for weakness and went in with both feet on Wednesday and Thursday to tell these EU fellas whats what. She can't even get her own party to accept Chequers despite the incessant claims that it is the only way, how did she think she would be able to drag the EU along?

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

Other rumours suggests that it'll be of the type stand firm, this is our stance, as you were type thing.

There is no chance that TM is stepping down or calling an election.

Why would she? Just before a Tory conference? Come on.

Still has brazened it out this far, she will continue to do so knowing that despite yesterday the Tories really have no one to take over.

It will be a "lets put everything we have into getting ready for no deal, but also everything else we have into getting a deal. Regardless of the games the EU are playing, TM will stay focused on delivering the will of the people, for the many not the few, for the just managing, for all the UK. She will deliver a bright and better future to the whole of the UK...etc etc etc"

She will probably thrown in a line that she expected this all along, that she was prepared and only shows that once again she was right to prepare for all eventualities. Now is not the time for the UK to be turning inward on itself, preoccupied with leadership challenges and politics. Now is the time that the UK must come together, under TM as leader and a Tory government of course, to deliver the best from Britain.

Enzokk

Dominic Raab was on Brexitcastlive and he is doubling down that the UK has move enough and it is now up to the EU to make their move from their stance. If this is the same as the statement from Theresa May then how can anything move forward? Do they still not understand there is not a lot that the EU can do or move? Are they that entitled that they think the EU must compromise on their very foundation pillars for the UK?

Leroy42

Also, they are gong with the Line that TM put out yesterday that they have simply no idea why the EU don't like Chequers. TM said it during her presser yesterday, "if there are problems, I'd like to hear them". I mean really?

And Raab is claiming the EU has just, out of nowhere wand without any warning, pulled the handbrake on the whole thing. And he has simply no idea why they have done this.

kunst nugget

No power in the room where May is going to make the speech which is delaying things. Haha...

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

Dominic Raab was on Brexitcastlive and he is doubling down that the UK has move enough and it is now up to the EU to make their move from their stance. If this is the same as the statement from Theresa May then how can anything move forward? Do they still not understand there is not a lot that the EU can do or move? Are they that entitled that they think the EU must compromise on their very foundation pillars for the UK?

Well I guess it's EU fault for not starting with the position of "You will pay us a gazillion euros a year, do 1 month of free labour at a EU location of our choosing and polish our shoes every Sunday" as a starting position to move closer with step by step to match the UK starting position and progress.

Infini

kunst nugget wrote: »

No power in the room where May is going to make the speech which is delaying things. Haha...

Its the falling letters all over again lol!

kowtow

kunst nugget wrote: »

No power in the room where May is going to make the speech which is delaying things. Haha...

she is rapidly turning into the woman for whom the three words "god love her" were invented.

bilston

J Mysterio wrote: »

Donald Tusk's instagram mocking May:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bn8Luwbjzf9/?hl=en

For one, im surprised Tusk has an Instagram account. For two, this seems a little bit too 'cheeky' for a serious diplomat in the current conditions.

Stuff like this won't help any campaign for a second referendum in the UK, as unlikely as it may be.

Penn

Enzokk wrote: »

Dominic Raab was on Brexitcastlive and he is doubling down that the UK has move enough and it is now up to the EU to make their move from their stance. If this is the same as the statement from Theresa May then how can anything move forward? Do they still not understand there is not a lot that the EU can do or move? Are they that entitled that they think the EU must compromise on their very foundation pillars for the UK?

Paraphrasing a tweet I saw earlier today regarding the UK's current negotiating strategy:

Child: I want crisps for dinner
Mother: You can't have crisps for dinner
Child: I have put forward my offer and it's now up to you to change your stance on it.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Also, they are gong with the Line that TM put out yesterday that they have simply no idea why the EU don't like Chequers. TM said it during her presser yesterday, "if there are problems, I'd like to hear them". I mean really?

And Raab is claiming the EU has just, out of nowhere wand without any warning, pulled the handbrake on the whole thing. And he has simply no idea why they have done this.

It a fairly simple trick from the UK for PR purposes, get the EU to give a more details responce to why the Chequers proposal is unacceptable, then the UK can rebut those reasons, lo and behold look everyone, you all said that the Chequers proposal was dead on arival but as you can all see, we are negiotiating those proposals with the EU.

kowtow

The only logical move for her now is to make herself look serious about no deal.

Sacking Hammond would be the quick way.

swampgas

bilston wrote: »

Stuff like this won't help any campaign for a second referendum in the UK, as unlikely as it may be.

Well if TM wasn't being so obstinate, refusing to accept the EU position on cherry-picking that has been delivered in more diplomatic ways many, many, many times already, there wouldn't be a temptation to drive the point home with an instagram post.

At this point the EU must be thinking "Bloody hell, what to we have to do to get it through her thick skull that we're actually serious here?"

Inquitus

So we can see the lectern now, it has the Gov Shield on the front, does that mean this is something substantial or the other where she is just gonna double down on Chequers?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUnAGAakzt4

Live now from No.10.

Enzokk

Here we go...just an update, will see what else she adds.

Leroy42

She really is a terrible speaker.

Rhineshark

Inquitus wrote: »

So we can see the lectern now, it has the Gov Shield on the front, does that mean this is something substantial or the other where she is just gonna double down on Chequers?

Means not GE or resignation anyway. So most likely just more of same old same old.