Brexit discussion thread IV

SimonTemplar

Two things:

Firstly, why does May seem to think the EU should come up with alternative plans. It is like if I said to my gym, "I want to cancel my membership but still enjoy some benefits of membership. Please tell me how to achieve this?"

Secondly, May seems to be packed into a corner and a second referendum may be the best way forward. If Leave wins again, she can conclusively say she has the public's mandate. If Remain wins and Brexit is cancelled, she can fall back to the "will of the public" argument she's been using and claim that continuing with it would be undemocratic.

No matter what happens, Brexit or no Brexit, I can't imagine the reputation of her premiership can be salvaged. It is quite an achievement to be despised by Leavers, Remainers and members of her own party.

revelman

Apologies if this has already been discussed but some of the carry-on on the part of the non-elected people in these negotiations is unhelpful to say the least. Tusk's instagram post about cherries yesterday was insulting. Unless he is an idiot he must have known the UK tabloid press would have jumped on this. You think these people would be aware of their history and the consequences of humiliating a country. So much of what is going on seems to be a desire to say 'I told you so' - you Brits thought you knew best but you didnt so now suffer'. Understandable I guess because even EU technocrats are human after all. But I worry about it and I worry about our cheerleading. Whatever our differences with the UK we wont find a greater ally in the EU once they leave.

Nody

Penn wrote: »

May won't back down. If ever she was going to do that, it would have been half an hour ago.

May could never back down before the Tory conference; I think she will be able to towards the end of the year when how badly things will go (and the companies announce their Brexit plans in private to her on how many jobs are going away) is better known. She can then act on behalf of UK even though it's unfair bla bla bla.

ancapailldorcha

revelman wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been discussed but some of the carry-on on the part of the non-elected people in these negotiations is unhelpful to say the least. Tusk's instagram post about cherries yesterday was insulting. Unless he is an idiot he must have known the UK tabloid press would have jumped on this. You think these people would be aware of their history and the consequences of humiliating a country. So much of what is going on seems to be a desire to say 'I told you so' - you Brits thought you knew best but you didnt so now suffer'. Understandable I guess because even EU technocrats are human after all. But I worry about it and I worry about our cheerleading. Whatever our differences with the UK we wont find a greater ally in the EU once they leave.

It was a joke. Political humour and satire are important elements of British culture or at least they used to be.

revelman

revelman wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been discussed but some of the carry-on on the part of the non-elected people in these negotiations is unhelpful to say the least. Tusk's instagram post about cherries yesterday was insulting. Unless he is an idiot he must have known the UK tabloid press would have jumped on this. You think these people would be aware of their history and the consequences of humiliating a country. So much of what is going on seems to be a desire to say 'I told you so' - you Brits thought you knew best but you didnt so now suffer'. Understandable I guess because even EU technocrats are human after all. But I worry about it and I worry about our cheerleading. Whatever our differences with the UK we wont find a greater ally in the EU once they leave.

Sorry mods, but did anyone else read this in Microsoft Sam?

swampgas

revelman wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been discussed but some of the carry-on on the part of the non-elected people in these negotiations is unhelpful to say the least. Tusk's instagram post about cherries yesterday was insulting. Unless he is an idiot he must have known the UK tabloid press would have jumped on this. You think these people would be aware of their history and the consequences of humiliating a country. So much of what is going on seems to be a desire to say 'I told you so' - you Brits thought you knew best but you didnt so now suffer'. Understandable I guess because even EU technocrats are human after all. But I worry about it and I worry about our cheerleading. Whatever our differences with the UK we wont find a greater ally in the EU once they leave.

Rubbish, IMO. She asked for it. She has been insulting the intelligence of everyone else in the EU with her half-baked and frankly insane proposals for years. A gentle political joke at her expense is pretty tame.

Maybe TM (and the rest of the UK) need to wake the hell up and realise that this is not a game? Whinging about an instagram post that skewers the UK Prime Minister's delusional approach to Brexit shows a lack of understanding of what is at stake.

Zubeneschamali

SimonTemplar wrote: »

If Leave wins again, she can conclusively say she has the public's mandate.

The EU are not giving her the finger because she has a weak mandate. The EU are dealing with the sovereign government of the UK, the question of a mandate is utterly irrelevant to the EU.

kowtow

Penn wrote: »

May won't back down. If ever she was going to do that, it would have been half an hour ago.

I agree with that.

Whatever about her delivery, her words were chosen carefully. She will not have said anything which leaves her a hostage to fortune domestically.

I think at this stage it would be churlish to think that Theresa May doesn't understand the issues from the EU point of view - she may well underestimate or miscalculate the relative importance of elements of their position.

I don't think you are going to hear her use the word "Chequers" again.

I think she will pivot this argument back on to the NI border issues. After all, they are the only things which actually need to be sorted out for a withdrawal agreement.

She wanted the moral high ground with the domestic audience and I think she will get that. She has probably succeeded in stopping the "victim of salzburg" narrative in it's tracks.

Can't see that it will make a blind bit of difference to the EU, unless they really are worried about no deal.

Leroy42

She talks about respect, but Tm herself has been attacking the role of the ECJ for years, blaming on everything.

She took over the leadership of the negotiations when Davies left, and yet she has the gall to come out and blame the EU for not letting her know why they have a problem with Chequers.

FOM, trying to split goods and services. There 2 of the top of my head. Yet she and HMG are claiming they have no idea!

She feel humiliated? How did she think Barnier was going to feel if the EU leaders had sidelined him after all his work? How did she think people felt when she went to Macron directly to try to get around the process?

How do you think Leo and Simon feel after takin her at her word back in December only to be told now that she was only messing and hadn't even bothered to come to a different solution.

Enzokk

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Two things:

Firstly, why does May seem to think the EU should come up with alternative plans. It is like if I said to my gym, "I want to cancel my membership but still enjoy some benefits of membership. Please tell me how to achieve this?"

Secondly, May seems to be packed into a corner and a second referendum may be the best way forward. If Leave wins again, she can conclusively say she has the public's mandate. If Remain wins and Brexit is cancelled, she can fall back to the "will of the public" argument she's been using and claim that continuing with it would be undemocratic.

No matter what happens, Brexit or no Brexit, I can't imagine the reputation of her premiership can be salvaged. It is quite an achievement to be despised by Leavers, Remainers and members of her own party.

On your points, firstly it is more like telling the gym manager that you want to leave the gym and you will eat what you want, but still expect them to make you fitter.

On the second point, she did this herself. She has to get herself out of this. She has red lines, she needs to let them go for this to move forward. The EU cannot loosen the four pillars for a third country.

revelman wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been discussed but some of the carry-on on the part of the non-elected people in these negotiations is unhelpful to say the least. Tusk's instagram post about cherries yesterday was insulting. Unless he is an idiot he must have known the UK tabloid press would have jumped on this. You think these people would be aware of their history and the consequences of humiliating a country. So much of what is going on seems to be a desire to say 'I told you so' - you Brits thought you knew best but you didnt so now suffer'. Understandable I guess because even EU technocrats are human after all. But I worry about it and I worry about our cheerleading. Whatever our differences with the UK we wont find a greater ally in the EU once they leave.

I am not cheerleading. I am sad that we are where we are. I am more upset that we are where we are because of lies told that were so easily debunked by critical thinking, and by one campaign cheating by overspending. I am also sad that people in the UK still believe this is the way to go even with all the indications being there that it will not end well. I can however only be sad for so long and if stubbornness will mean the UK will harm themselves and us then why should I not be angry with them? We will be harmed by Brexit, whichever one it is. But if you keep warning someone that touching a warm surface will hurt them and they still want to touch it, what emotion should we feel?

Leroy42

Headline from the Express:

Theresa May's FINEST HOUR: Furious PM goes to war with EU for 'making a mockery' of UK

Enzokk

On her call for respect, this twitter thread nicely says it all really:

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1043128220508405760

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1043128893685882881

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1043129300805988353

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1043129727379222529

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1043130508119552000

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1043131971910684673

Sassygirl1999

Leroy42 wrote: »

Headline from the Express:

Quote:
Theresa May's FINEST HOUR: Furious PM goes to war with EU for 'making a mockery' of UK

the mockery from TUsk-
He followed it up by posting a photograph on Instagram of he and Mrs May looking at cakes with the caption: "A piece of cake, perhaps? Sorry, no cherries."

The EU has argued that the UK cannot "cherry-pick" elements from its rulebook.

revelman

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sorry mods, but did anyone else read this in Microsoft Sam?

Read what? My post?

Imreoir2

revelman wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been discussed but some of the carry-on on the part of the non-elected people in these negotiations is unhelpful to say the least. Tusk's instagram post about cherries yesterday was insulting. Unless he is an idiot he must have known the UK tabloid press would have jumped on this. You think these people would be aware of their history and the consequences of humiliating a country. So much of what is going on seems to be a desire to say 'I told you so' - you Brits thought you knew best but you didnt so now suffer'. Understandable I guess because even EU technocrats are human after all. But I worry about it and I worry about our cheerleading. Whatever our differences with the UK we wont find a greater ally in the EU once they leave.

Since when is telling someone that you can's have your cake and eat it, and that you can't cherry pick only the rules you like, an insult? Do the Brits have some god given right to whatever deal takes their fancy now?

Call me Al

revelman wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been discussed but some of the carry-on on the part of the non-elected people in these negotiations is unhelpful to say the least. Tusk's instagram post about cherries yesterday was insulting. Unless he is an idiot he must have known the UK tabloid press would have jumped on this. You think these people would be aware of their history and the consequences of humiliating a country. So much of what is going on seems to be a desire to say 'I told you so' - you Brits thought you knew best but you didnt so now suffer'. Understandable I guess because even EU technocrats are human after all. But I worry about it and I worry about our cheerleading. Whatever our differences with the UK we wont find a greater ally in the EU once they leave.

I think she would be better served in demanding respect from within her own party before lecturing those within the EU. Maybe a bit of self-examination wouldn't go amiss.

SimonTemplar

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU are not giving her the finger because she has a weak mandate. The EU are dealing with the sovereign government of the UK, the question of a mandate is utterly irrelevant to the EU.

Well I was thinking from the viewpoint of the Remainers in the UK. They would be silenced if a second referendum yielded a Leave result.

revelman

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It was a joke. Political humour and satire are important elements of British culture or at least they used to be.

I seem to be in a minority of one here in thinking that Donald Tusk should have better things to be doing than antagonising half the British population.

Zubeneschamali

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Well I was thinking from the viewpoint of the Remainers in the UK. They would be silenced if a second referendum yielded a Leave result.

If I was a UK citizen in the UK and Brexit actually happened, I'd be joining the Rejoin the EU campaign the next day.

Sassygirl1999

revelman wrote: »

I seem to be in a minority of one here in thinking that Donald Tusk should have better things to be doing than antagonising half the British population.

is it still half?

ancapailldorcha

revelman wrote: »

I seem to be in a minority of one here in thinking that Donald Tusk should have better things to be doing than antagonising half the British population.

17.4 million is not half of the British population.

Rjd2

revelman wrote: »

I seem to be in a minority of one here in thinking that Donald Tusk should have better things to be doing than antagonising half the British population.

To be fair Tusk has been pretty fair with May throughout the process, I just read as a bit of harmless banter between friends. Nothing more than that.

revelman

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Since when is telling someone that you can's have your cake and eat it, and that you can't cherry pick only the rules you like, an insult? Do the Brits have some god given right to whatever deal takes their fancy now?

Of course those words are not an insult. And I would expect him to say that to her in negotiations. But a public instagram post of that sort was unhelpful and was clearly going to rile the UK tabloids up and makes things even more intractable. Again it appears that this is a minority view on here.

cml387

First response from European sources very mild, as I expected:

Lisa O'Carroll, GuardianEU sources were relaxed about May’s speech. They see it as as a “positioning” ahead of the Tory party conference after what they see as a self-inflicted wound in Salzburg.

ancapailldorcha

revelman wrote: »

Of course those words are not an insult. And I would expect him to say that to her in negotiations. But a public instagram post of that sort was unhelpful and was clearly going to rile the UK tabloids up and makes things even more intractable. Again it appears that this is a minority view on here.

As anyone who's lived here will attest, the UK tabloids live in a state of permanent irascibility. This Instagram post will be soon forgotten.

Clare in Exile

Compelling viewing, if only for how she played up the "Iron Lady" persona for the home audience. As somebody mentioned, this is the performance that she wished she had given yesterday.

However, this has more or less made a No Deal Brexit the most likely outcome, for she threw the toys right out of the pram with this display. Hopefully not too many of the British people will have bought it, but it really was a pathetic speech that the EU could rip to shreds mercilessly.

The pound is sliding, May is stumbling and all the while the UK is heading for the precipice of a nasty divorce.

As for Northern Ireland and the backstop - our Government can feel rightly duped by the British, they clearly have no intention of adhering to what they signed up for late last year.

If only she hadn't called that election and the DUP weren't in the tent, we would more than likely have had the Northern Ireland border issue sorted. If only...

A truly crazy speech and performance, Mr Tusk et al must have been watching in a state of bewilderment...

Bar_Prop

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Well I was thinking from the viewpoint of the Remainers in the UK. They would be silenced if a second referendum yielded a Leave result.

If I was a UK citizen in the UK and Brexit actually happened, I'd be joining the Rejoin the EU campaign the next day.

I'd join the campaign to adopt the Euro, the campaign to enter Schengen, the campaign to fully metricate road signs and the campaign to give Gibraltar to Spain first.

From Angela Monaghan, a tweet on the guardian:

The pound is on course for its biggest one-day drop in 2018 against the dollar, after Theresa May said Brexit negotiations with the EU had reached an “impasse”.

Traders took fright as May’s comments were taken as a sign that a no deal Brexit is an increasingly likely outcome of talks, creating uncertainty which unsettles traders.

Sterling’s losses accelerated as the prime minister spoke and the pound is now down 1.5% or two cents against the dollar at $1.3062 and down 1.2% against the euro at €1.1131.

Enzokk

Another tweet that brings up an interesting question, although we know the answer to this already.

https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1043090347621076992


Also, for interest the court case on whether article 50 can be withdrawn will go to the ECJ for a judgement.

Andy Wightman MSP and others v Secretary of State for Exiting the EU

The Court of Session has ruled that a question about whether the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union can be revoked should be answered by the Court of Justice of the European Union. The following is a summary of the court’s judgment.

There is also a potential case where the courts in the UK are asked about the validity of the EU referendum with the facts that there was illegal action from one side and whether there should have been better legislation to ensure fairness with the referendum. I am not sure whether this case would win as in the end the referendum was still only advisory and not to be acted on. At any time can the PM back out of her choice, but she seems determined to screw us all.

Imreoir2

revelman wrote: »

Of course those words are not an insult. And I would expect him to say that to her in negotiations. But a public instagram post of that sort was unhelpful and was clearly going to rile the UK tabloids up and makes things even more intractable. Again it appears that this is a minority view on here.

If the British PM is so beholden to a bunch of tabloid newspapers, then what is the point of the EU talking to her, they should just invite the edititor of the Sun and Daily Mail to Brussels and cut out the middle woman.