Brexit discussion thread IV

Nody

revelman wrote: »

I seem to be in a minority of one here in thinking that Donald Tusk should have better things to be doing than antagonising half the British population.

Well after the half a billion population of EU has had to suffer Davis Davis, May and Boris antics for 18 months we don't really see it as a big thing to show one picture with a minor jab.

kowtow

Bar_Prop wrote: »

I'd join the campaign to adopt the Euro, the campaign to enter Schengen, the campaign to fully metricate road signs and the campaign to give Gibraltar to Spain first.

You would have to, they would all be EU pre-conditions.

revelman

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

17.4 million is not half of the British population.

With respect, I dont think that is a good argument. We cant force people to vote. And I wouldnt be surprised if many of those who didnt vote would have been brexiteers. More well to do areas tend to have higher turn outs. You are also assuming that only Brexiteers are offended by the carry on of Tusk et al.

SimonTemplar

Today's speech just seems like an attempt at damage control after yesterday but she just ends up seeming more desperate and her position weakened.

Could she be forced out in the near future?

ancapailldorcha

revelman wrote: »

With respect, I dont think that is a good argument. We cant force people to vote. And I wouldnt be surprised if many of those who didnt vote would have been brexiteers. More well to do areas tend to have higher turn outs. You are also assuming that only Brexiteers are offended by the carry on of Tusk et al.

So far, the only one who seems to be getting offended is you for some reason. I don't think most people's skin is that thin.

revelman

revelman wrote: »

Of course those words are not an insult. And I would expect him to say that to her in negotiations. But a public instagram post of that sort was unhelpful and was clearly going to rile the UK tabloids up and makes things even more intractable. Again it appears that this is a minority view on here.

Perhaps it's because we see no deal as the default, and view the UK's position as one of a third country trying to join the EU in some weird and wonderful way.

That is what it boils down to. The UK themselves would be just as incredulous of a third country speaking like it has.

briany

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Today's speech just seems like an attempt at damage control after yesterday but she just ends up seeming more desperate and her position weakened.

Could she be forced out in the near future?

Well, she's hung on this long, and nobody thought she'd be able to do that, so I've stopped supposing that she might be ousted.

Nody

briany wrote: »

Well, she's hung on this long, and nobody thought she'd be able to do that, so I've stopped supposing that she might be ousted.

I stand at what I've said in the past again; no one will oust her until after the crash out (as long as she was not showing signs of getting a deal) to ensure the public is upset and then ride in as the knight in shining armor to "fix" the issues May caused. This becomes even easier as many of the issues are likely to go from OMFGWTFBBQ to only OMFG level as it normalizes on the new ways things are and they can claim credit for the "improvement" and spend the next year to "prove" how good of a statesman they are by getting a FTA or two before calling an election in 2020 on the back of "fixing things" and needing more time to fix further but be able to claim a track record etc. and all is May's fault anyway.

Imreoir2

revelman wrote: »

We cant force people to vote.

Of course you can, several countries have compulsory voting.

dfx-

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

This just confirms what we already knew: her overriding objective is to retain her position as PM for as long as possible. This is a diatribe aimed firmly at an Internal audience, trying to portray herself as strong and capable of playing chicken with the EU. Chequers is fantastical nonsense, but purely for the purposes of the Conservative party she is obliged to ride it the whole way into oblivion. This will angle the conversation in the right wing / conservative press back to how she's the 'great survivor' blah, blah. Her only aim is to get beyond her party conference. Then get beyond November, then get to Brexit day and so on and so on.

So long as she's PM she's winning.

PM of what, for what though.

Having the job that no-one else wants, not even the Opposition with now added international humiliation.

ilovesmybrick

revelman wrote: »

With respect, I dont think that is a good argument. We cant force people to vote. And I wouldnt be surprised if many of those who didnt vote would have been brexiteers. More well to do areas tend to have higher turn outs. You are also assuming that only Brexiteers are offended by the carry on of Tusk et al.

Honestly I'm far more offended by the way the British government have treated the entire process. Contempt for the position the EU took from the outset, contempt for Irish concerns regarding the border, contempt for the concerns of their electorate, contempt for their own leader, and every second day there's contempt shown towards not only the leaders of the EU, but after yesterday the leaders of the EU countries by telling them essentially it's her plan (which even her own ministers can't agree on) or nothing. Don't get me wrong, I'm a not a blind supporter of the EU, but it's not the demonic fascist-communist-collapsing-socialist-free market that they have been constantly making it out to be.

kowtow

Before we lose the run of ourselves it doesn't matter whether she was personally offended, the offence was picked up by the news cycle and gave her a great platform to gain domestic control of the debate back while looking tough.

Quite a good save - in so far as it goes - for her regardless of whose fault the Salzburg snub was.

Sticking it to Brussels plays well in the UK, just as sticking it to Britain played well in France yesterday for Macron.

The more interesting debate in the UK is the one which is about to start with the big party conferences. With DDay drawing near Labour must explain why a deal at any price is not a sellout, and May must explain why no deal might be a price worth paying. That is the debate which matters, and Corbyn and May will each be working flat out to draw as many of their parties with them as they can - because that is the foundation on which the parliamentary arithmetic is built.

revelman

Nody wrote: »

Well after the half a billion population of EU has had to suffer Davis Davis, May and Boris antics for 18 months we don't really see it as a big thing to show one picture with a minor jab.

Do you really believe that all Europeans align themselves with the Brexit-related views of those people sitting around the Dr Strangelove table in Salzburg? Having spent over 10 years living in continental Europe I believe it is a lot more complicated than that. Among ordinary Europeans there is a great deal of sympathy for the reasons why the UK wants to leave. It is worth remembering that we live in one of the most pro-EU countries in the EU.

dfx-

dfx- wrote: »

PM of what, for what though.

Having the job that no-one else wants, not even the Opposition with now added international humiliation.

Other world leaders will get a mere sentence or two in the history books. If this continues, there will be entire chapters about her and her handling of this.

Unfortunately, this isn't marketing where bad publicity is still publicity. People will suffer.


My Brexit-voting friend is firmly behind Brexit but is now a Remainer. There's an idea and there's how that idea is implemented.

The current state of pro-Brexit is like wanting a kid, and being happy even though the kid isn't gonna be yours.

Enzokk

briany wrote: »

Well, she's hung on this long, and nobody thought she'd be able to do that, so I've stopped supposing that she might be ousted.

Only because the others that could possibly take the leadership from her knows it's a poisoned chalice and they will not be able to deliver anything like what was promised. It is either EU lite or border and tearing up an international agreement that stopped people from killing each other. They were smart to avoid it, she wasn't. Look at her opponents for the leadership when Cameron resigned. It was not the finest list you will ever see, for good reason. Those with any sense knew to stay away, those that applied though...

revelman

kowtow wrote: »

Before we lose the run of ourselves it doesn't matter whether she was personally offended, the offence was picked up by the news cycle and gave her a great platform to gain domestic control of the debate back while looking tough.

Quite a good save - in so far as it goes - for her regardless of whose fault the Salzburg snub was.

Sticking it to Brussels plays well in the UK, just as sticking it to Britain played well in France yesterday for Macron.

The more interesting debate in the UK is the one which is about to start with the big party conferences. With DDay drawing near Labour must explain why a deal at any price is not a sellout, and May must explain why no deal might be a price worth paying. That is the debate which matters, and Corbyn and May will each be working flat out to draw as many of their parties with them as they can - because that is the foundation on which the parliamentary arithmetic is built.

This is exactly right.

Kermit.de.frog

What she has proposed cant be accepted surely?

That an invisible assembly in the north take decisions on divergence?

That is not a contingency.

trellheim

OK look at it this way

What is the only audience that matters now ?

The Tory Party conference 30 Sep-3 Oct, in Birmingham.

All the rest is window dressing.

This is designed to get them in line just as much as its optics for the EU.

Will anyone challenge ? If no then we will see a deal done after , otherwise its hard out

Professor Moriarty

revelman wrote: »

Do you really believe that all Europeans align themselves with the Brexit-related views of those people sitting around the Dr Strangelove table in Salzburg? Having spent over 10 years living in continental Europe I believe it is a lot more complicated than that. Among ordinary Europeans there is a great deal of sympathy for the reasons why the UK wants to leave. It is worth remembering that we live in one of the most pro-EU countries in the EU.[/QUOTE]

Indeed it is worth remembering that fact. And there is a very good reason for that - the EU has been very good to us. I think you are missing other important facts. Unlike other EU countries, we have a land border with Britain. Unlike other countries, peace in our country may be threatened by Brexit. Unlike other countries, our economy is severely threatened by Brexit. Unlike other countries, much of our exports pass through Britain. Much more than any other country in Europe, we have a lot to lose.

revelman

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed it is worth remembering that fact. And there is a very good reason for that - the EU has been very good to us. I think you are missing other important facts. Unlike other EU countries, we have a land border with Britain. Unlike other countries, peace in our country may be threatened by Brexit. Unlike other countries, our economy is severely threatened by Brexit. Unlike other countries, much of our exports pass through Britain. Much more than any other country in Europe, we have a lot to lose.

I am in 100 per cent full agreement with you. Im not sure how my posts gave the impression that I do no understand those things. My central concern is how (to use Barnier's phrase) things can be dramatised and then become more intractable.

Leroy42

I also find it strange that the Brexiteers constantly go on about Brexit being more than just the economics, and I fully understand that POV.

But at the same time they seem to totally ignore the peace and stability that the EU, in its many guises, has brought to the entire continent that has been involved.

To even use the headline that May goes to war shows how little regard the UK have for that aspect.

Sam Russell

revelman wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been discussed but some of the carry-on on the part of the non-elected people in these negotiations is unhelpful to say the least. Tusk's instagram post about cherries yesterday was insulting.

Tusk in not a 'non-elected' person. He was prime minister of Poland for seven years from 2007 to 2014. That is longer than TM has been PM.

Lemming

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

17.4 million is not half of the British population.

It's less than that now anyway as polls have shown, with some constituencies swinging in the early to mid tens of percentage changes against Brexit.

revelman wrote: »

With respect, I dont think that is a good argument. We cant force people to vote. And I wouldnt be surprised if many of those who didnt vote would have been brexiteers.

We passed the point a few days (or perhaps last week, I can't recall now) where statistically speaking, even if nobody who voted (and was still alive) changed their mind, a remain vote would be achieved accounting for all those now-18 year olds. "Will of the people" indeed.

Also, drop the faux outrage sh1te. The British media & political classes, including senior members of government, have behaved appallingly towards the EU27 for the last 18 months. What Tusk did - assuming that's an official account - was tame.

Zubeneschamali

Bar_Prop wrote: »

I'd join the campaign to adopt the Euro, the campaign to enter Schengen, the campaign to fully metricate road signs and the campaign to give Gibraltar to Spain first.

All good ideas.

kowtow

trellheim wrote: »

OK look at it this way

What is the only audience that matters now ?

The Tory Party conference 30 Sep-3 Oct, in Birmingham.

All the rest is window dressing.

This is designed to get them in line just as much as its optics for the EU.

Will anyone challenge ? If no then we will see a deal done after , otherwise its hard out

I would be amazed if anyone challenged - although if yesterday had been left hanging in the wind then there might well have been a gang of people who only wished someone would challenge.

I think the harder right elements of the party will work hard at the conference to try and drag TM around to the ERG solution set out last week (with no deal as a backup). If anything yesterday's and today's events have made that more plausible because it is now accepted that the EU have rejected the Chequers proposals. Absent the EU re-opening discussions in public along Chequers lines then the conference is going to want to know why a way can't be found to deliver some twist on Canada (which obviously requires an NI solution)

I wonder if perhaps the general feeling in this thread is similar to Brexit itself. Lots of posters, including me feeling that them crashing out, while not a preferable option, is seen as a greater good.

Is this an echo chamber?

trellheim

I think the harder right elements of the party will work hard at the conference to try and drag TM around to the ERG solution set out last week (with no deal as a backup). If anything yesterday's and today's events have made that more plausible because it is now accepted that the EU have rejected the Chequers proposals. Absent the EU re-opening discussions in public along Chequers lines then the conference is going to want to know why a way can't be found to deliver some twist on Canada (which obviously requires an NI solution)

No I think no-one will want to take it because it will be a s**tshow no matter what

kowtow

Deleted User wrote: »

I wonder if perhaps the general feeling in this thread is similar to Brexit itself. Lots of posters, including me feeling that them crashing out, while not a preferable option, is seen as a greater good.

Is this an echo chamber?

This thread is as close to an echo chamber as any I have ever found!

Professor Moriarty

revelman wrote: »

[quote="

I am in 100 per cent full agreement
with you. Im not sure how my posts gave the impression that I do no understand
those things. My central concern is how (to use Barnier's phrase) things can be
dramatised and then become more intractable.

You mean "de-dramatised'. He was speaking about the backstop and how it might be less figural. The backstop that May signed up to in December, an agreement that she backtracked on since then. In other words, she lied to the EU in December.

Nody

revelman wrote: »

Do you really believe that all Europeans align themselves with the Brexit-related views of those people sitting around the Dr Strangelove table in Salzburg? Having spent over 10 years living in continental Europe I believe it is a lot more complicated than that. Among ordinary Europeans there is a great deal of sympathy for the reasons why the UK wants to leave. It is worth remembering that we live in one of the most pro-EU countries in the EU.

Well I've spent over 16 years living outside my home country in various EU countries (which is also a EU member from before I was born) and I can without a doubt say that UK has zero empathy from how they handled Brexit with the general population and the three stoogies lead by May ensured any sympathy that was there dried up quickly. Do people think there are issues with EU? Heck yes. Do they give two fartings for how UK will do after Brexit at this stage? Nope because they burned any good will and bridges a long time ago.