Brexit discussion thread IV

Frank Bullitt

Just watching Question Time now.

The applause for some of the stuff being said is really quite something. Its like not wanting to change the the direction of the car after you flattened the throttle while heading towards a cliff edge.

Beechwoodspark

EdgeCase wrote: »

Sterling really took a hammering after May's comments. Back at almost €1 to 90p

Probably the only thing that actually will knock some sense into them. Here’s hoping it goes reallll low

Sand

May must have known that would happen. She might have deliberately done this to try intimidate the various factions in the Tory party to row in behind her to 'stand up to Brussels'. Even if they do so its only temporary. Her only two options are Canada or Norway and either will still split her support, and Labour is not going to reach across and help her in the national interest. The UK is on course for a no-deal outcome barring a miracle.

Beechwoodspark

From last night on her focus is the Tory conference.

Meanwhile the negotiations continue. 90-95 percent done.

EdgeCase

The course now looks like a no deal Brexit followed by a major recession and then Corbynism.

Beechwoodspark

EdgeCase wrote: »

The course now looks like a no deal Brexit followed by a major recession and then Corbynism.

What a disaster that will be for them

Enzokk

Sand wrote: »

May must have known that would happen. She might have deliberately done this to try intimidate the various factions in the Tory party to row in behind her to 'stand up to Brussels'. Even if they do so its only temporary. Her only two options are Canada or Norway and either will still split her support, and Labour is not going to reach across and help her in the national interest. The UK is on course for a no-deal outcome barring a miracle.

She cannot get either past her own parliament with any certainty so I don't know what she will do. She really is up the creek without a paddle. Labour will oppose her just because they want a election called, the DUP and ERG will only support a hard Brexit but most of her MPs do not want this and will only vote for the government to keep their seats as Labour will most likely destroy the Conservatives when they go to the polls.

So her choice really seems to be hard Brexit or have her government fall.

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

From last night on her focus is the Tory conference.

Meanwhile the negotiations continue. 90-95 percent done.

The problem is the 5% left is the Irish border. She cannot solve this so it really doesn't matter even if they agree everything for a withdrawal agreement and trade deal in the next few weeks. When she can square that circle the negotiations will be done.

Sand

The only solution for the border is to 'de-dramatise' the so-called sea border between Britain and Northern Ireland.

We are ultimately talking about technical inspections and checks. No act of ritual humiliation will be visited upon travellers between Belfast and Scotland. Northern Ireland is already constitutionally separate from England, Scotland and Wales, with its own laws and regulations. The Union Jack will be flying over both sides of the divide.

Theresa May clearly lacks the imagination, courage or conviction to compromise on her arbitrary red lines. But if it takes 6 months or 6 years a regulatory border with a country they never visit is not the trench that the English voters are going to fight and die in. That will be the ultimate compromise.

UsedToWait

Does anyone seriously believe there is a tactical masterplan in place, where the British will take it down to the wire to get maximum concessions on a deal?

Or is it just, as it appears on the face of it, a Brexit mess?

flutered

revelman wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It was a joke. Political humour and satire are important elements of British culture or at least they used to be.

I seem to be in a minority of one here in thinking that Donald Tusk should have better things to be doing than antagonising half the British population.

kind like the dog and the coppers trunchon

prawnsambo

revelman wrote: »

I agree that Britain isn’t a super power. But even in the case of a no deal Brexit, it is hard to see how Britain is going to become an insignificant little island at least in the medium term. Britain will remain a very important country with political clout, not least because of what it has contributed the world (btw I’m not saying it hasn’t done bad things).

Just on what a no deal actually means. If you listen to this from about 4 and a half minutes in. It's Jason Hunter from three blokes in a pub (if you haven't heard of them, check youtube) who went to Geneva to ask questions of the WTO and then Brussels. The clip I'm highlighting here is what the WTO people said. In a nutshell is that they expect that Britain will get a trade deal with Canada easily enough, but the rest of the world will sit back and wait for the British agri-food industry to collapse (estimated between 18 months and two years) and then swoop in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVn1yWd14zU

Call me Al

UsedToWait wrote: »

Does anyone seriously believe there is a tactical masterplan in place, where the British will take it down to the wire to get maximum concessions on a deal?

Or is it just, as it appears on the face of it, a Brexit mess?

The level.of incompetence and in-fighting within the Tories would indicate t's not a master plan. TM is paralysed by the fear of the loss of power. She can't deviate or she will run the risk of a GE.

So she has to plough ahead.
But their apparent lack of preparations for a no-deal brexit would indicate that they are lurching from one internal argument to the next.

An Ciarraioch

Lisa Chambers has a rather "unique" take on this week's summit - somehow the Government's at fault for talking to Macron, and relations with the UK are bad because everyone else was mean to May!

https://mobile.twitter.com/lichamber/status/1043123787934388224

Spook_ie

Calina wrote: »

I might agree if the UK and US were not pretending their democratic processes were immune to Russian misinformation.

I doubt that any country would ever admit that something was wrong with their democratic process, and I include Ireland in that.

Infini

Call me Al wrote: »

The level.of incompetence and in-fighting within the Tories would indicate t's not a master plan. TM is paralysed by the fear of the loss of power. She can't deviate or she will run the risk of a GE.

So she has to plough ahead.
But their apparent lack of preparations for a no-deal brexit would indicate that they are lurching from one internal argument to the next.

Realistically this is going to come to a head in the next few weeks. It's a certain no deal if there's nothing substantial by October. May today reeks of denial and borderline delusion in her speech. Hell she goes she will agree to anything that divide's their country in two. Except the part she's referring to is part of the Island of Ireland which the British divided in 2 close to a century ago. Didn't have a problem then eh? :rolleyes: We don't exactly want NI back all that's been asked is for custom's check's at port's and airport's to prevent good's not up to EU standard's being snuck into the EU using Ireland as a backdoor.

The EU has been as flexible as it can be and is willing to consider inventive solutions up to yesterday. However she turns up with literally nothing to put on the table after the EU bring's some idea's on how to bridge the gap. Nothing ready for October and we need something to work towards. That just doesn't work.

As for her authority she's politically dead to right's and I feel she know's this as well. She has the DUP headbangers, Moggle's European Troll Group, Boris the Buffoon and a completely balkanised conservative party. Meanwhile Labour is led by a man with no interest in the common good and is playing politics with an issue of national importance.

Ultimately thing's aren't going anywhere and time's running out. She WILL have to compromise because honestly after yesterdays performance the patience is running out on the EU side. They can be inventive if the other side play's ball but they want the my way or the highway approach which will not work.

A GE is realistically the only hope of breaking this deadlock, the conservative's created this mess and are too impotent and incompetent to drop the BS and seriously deal with the problem. A 2nd referendum is the obvious way out for all involved but the longer this goes on the greater the chance of a crashout that will tear the UK apart in the long term.

Corb_lund

Sand wrote: »

The only solution for the border is to 'de-dramatise' the so-called sea border between Britain and Northern Ireland.

We are ultimately talking about technical inspections and checks. No act of ritual humiliation will be visited upon travellers between Belfast and Scotland. Northern Ireland is already constitutionally separate from England, Scotland and Wales, with its own laws and regulations. The Union Jack will be flying over both sides of the divide.

Theresa May clearly lacks the imagination, courage or conviction to compromise on her arbitrary red lines. But if it takes 6 months or 6 years a regulatory border with a country they never visit is not the trench that the English voters are going to fight and die in. That will be the ultimate compromise.

Prob because they don't want to compromise. As soon as they do that, the SNP will be baying, the welsh will make rumbles.

Frankly but for the fact they have so much ethnic trouble splitting the micro and macro community's they prob would already have fckd off with no deal in all their arrogance. Britain is paralysed by the results of immigration since the 70s and esp since '97.

LeinsterDub

Spook_ie wrote: »

The EU won't be a main power at all, it's too divided between 27 heads of state, it might be a huge trading bloc but to call them a power would be wishful thinking.

EU has maintained unity on Brexit for the last 2 years. Perhaps we fight like sidings until someone external threatens one of us.

bilston

Infini wrote: »

Call me Al wrote: »

The level.of incompetence and in-fighting within the Tories would indicate t's not a master plan. TM is paralysed by the fear of the loss of power. She can't deviate or she will run the risk of a GE.

So she has to plough ahead.
But their apparent lack of preparations for a no-deal brexit would indicate that they are lurching from one internal argument to the next.

A 2nd referendum is the obvious way out for all involved but the longer this goes on the greater the chance of a crashout that will tear the UK apart in the long term.

A 2nd referendum may no longer be a way out of this after the way the last few days have gone. Whatever people here or in Europe may think there seems to be a feeling in the UK that Tusk and others went too far over the last couple of days.

In saying that it may have bought May some time, so maybe it was a deliberate ploy to keep May in power and stop someone like Johnson taking over. But that's the conspiracy theorist in me coming out.

Shauny2010

I think a no deal is on the Cards. The EU is indicating that it will support the Irish economy post Brexit. While Brexit is the be all and end all of the British media the reality of the EU leaders was that many of them were more interested in dealing with the migration problem.
Brexit will shrink the Irish economy short term, but as shown before it always bounces back. Its export based so it has no option but to increase trade with other EU countries and the rest of the world.
What exactly happens to northern Ireland post brexit will be interesting. What about all the workers who travel into the rep every day? Post no deal Brexit will they even be legal working here?

Infini

bilston wrote: »

A 2nd referendum may no longer be a way out of this after the way the last few days have gone. Whatever people here or in Europe may think there seems to be a feeling in the UK that Tusk and others went too far over the last couple of days.

I don't think they really have. Most have been putting this out softly for the last while simply because the Brit's have looked like they're stalling for time endlessly and not interested in taking this seriously. It's hard to take anyone seriously when they constantly bluster and look like they're living in an alternate reality from everyone else and even more so when all inventive solutions are looked at and the UK just turns up and has literally NOTHING to add.

Truthfully the British Government needs a cold hard dose in reality on this. A breakdown of talk's will unleash the true reality that they've been ignoring for all this time and which might actually get them to cop the hell on. Nothing short of this I feel will make the penny drop for them. They had 2 year's to negotiate but spent it all on infighting. Now decision time looms and the truth is unless they abandon this self inflicted act of fallacy they suffer the worst of the consequences of which they brought it on themselves.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lisa Chambers has a rather "unique" take on this week's summit - somehow the Government's at fault for talking to Macron, and relations with the UK are bad because everyone else was mean to May!

https://mobile.twitter.com/lichamber/status/1043123787934388224

Thank god FF are not the ones in charge then.

That's dreadful.

Spook_ie

RobertKK wrote: »

Leaders of other countries know England/the UK has been use to getting it's own way and now these countries including Ireland finds themselves in a far stronger position than the UK is.
I am not saying that is a factor, but the future of the EU is at stake and the UK so use to getting it's own way - Theresa May reported as telling the EU last year that the UK was a far more important country than Ireland - that talk was shot down.
The UK thought it could use the size of its economy as a bargaining chip. The major problems the UK have are it does want a cake with cherries, cream, chocolate, something for everything. They are leaving so the cake lacks the nice things they were use to.
Theresa May says she won't budge and the EU will be far less affected by Brexit. It isn't exactly a great way to bargain.
Macron obviously fed up when he rightly said the liars who pushed for Brexit were quick to disappear.

It is amazing how when the British thought they were clever when they kept a part of Ireland in the UK back in 1921, that near 100 years later it is coming back to bite them.
The people who pushed for Brexit and said this would be "the easiest trade deal in history" are looking foolish. "They need us more than we need them", the German carmakers will twist Merkel's arm.
There has been an empire mindset among some leading Brexiteers, appointing too much self importance and that others would have to jump to accommodate the demands of the UK.
The UK should be worried, they won't be the main leading power in Western Europe when they leave the EU, the EU will continue to be the main power.

Brexit happened due to lies pushed by people suffering from delusions and too much self importance. We live in a world where we need others and others include other countries.
It was funny last night on Question Time when one person said the Prime Minister is left with trying to dance in Africa to get trade deals.

Spook_ie wrote: »

The EU won't be a main power at all, it's too divided between 27 heads of state, it might be a huge trading bloc but to call them a power would be wishful thinking.

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU is one of the main powers of the world, it's just soft power rather than military. As the world's 2nd largest economy it can't be anything but really, and the EU's foreign policy generally all points in the same direction despite being made up of 27 member states.

Spook_ie wrote: »

And when soft power EU meets hard power Russia, EUs going to be wanting UKs / USAs armed forces backing them.

RobertKK wrote: »

Isn't that why NATO exists?

Spook_ie wrote: »

EU isn't in NATO

Thargor wrote: »

What a weak answer.

What are you blathering on about anyway? You think the US or the rest of NATO would sit back if Russia decided on actual military action against an EU state? Don't be delusional.

Well I assume you could not find the start of the sub thread so I think I have put them all in.

I think that it would require NATO rather than the EU to bare its teeth, the EU is a trading bloc not one of the powers of the future, just look what happened in Bosnia and Kosovo right on the EU´s doorstep.

briany

Nobody can accept a border, meaning there'll probably the hardest kind of border you can get between two modern peacetime countries.

Mogg & co. will be happy enough with a no-deal.

For Forks Sake

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lisa Chambers has a rather "unique" take on this week's summit - somehow the Government's at fault for talking to Macron, and relations with the UK are bad because everyone else was mean to May!

https://mobile.twitter.com/lichamber/status/1043123787934388224

FAO Castlebar, your village idiot has escaped again. What an utterly ludicrous statement.

Capt'n Midnight

Oh the irony, AggregateIQ (AIQ) a Canadian firm looks like it's going to fined by the UK for breaking EU rules that may not apply in a few months time.
Vote Leave data firm hit with first ever GDPR notice

lawred2

BBC very chipper about it all I thought. Very positive about Theresa May's speech today.

Defiant must have been said about ten times.

Infini

briany wrote: »

Nobody can accept a border, meaning there'll probably the hardest kind of border you can get between two modern peacetime countries.

Mogg & co. will be happy enough with a no-deal.

OR people up there galvanise serious support for a border poll. NI is in the unique position despite being divided of having a built in out against a Hard Brexit. The DUP shout's all it want's but in reality it looks disconnected from the majority of NI's population. Information we do have so far predicts a 60%+ support for a UI in the event of a Hard Brexit which show's the sheer irony of what I can only call the Dumbáss Unionist Party's stance.

What I will wonder is once Hard Brexit is a certainty what will people up the North do though. Will organisation's up there expecially the Border Communities Against Brexit group be able to reorganise into a broader Unification movement to get the people up North who voted against this out of this situation.

An Ciarraioch

lawred2 wrote: »

BBC very chipper about it all I thought. Very positive about Theresa May's speech today.

Defiant must have been said about ten times.

UK press in general appear to have gone into Churchillian mode, judging by the front pages:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1043246540469534720

Shauny2010

Infini wrote: »

OR people up there galvanise serious support for a border poll. NI is in the unique position despite being divided of having a built in out against a Hard Brexit. The DUP shout's all it want's but in reality it looks disconnected from the majority of NI's population. Information we do have so far predicts a 60%+ support for a UI in the event of a Hard Brexit which show's the sheer irony of what I can only call the Dumbáss Unionist Party's stance.

What I will wonder is once Hard Brexit is a certainty what will people up the North do though. Will organisation's up there expecially the Border Communities Against Brexit group be able to reorganise into a broader Unification movement to get the people up North who voted against this out of this situation.

How much love will northern Ireland have for the UK when the Doors of the EU slam shut. Its not just goods and services that they export into the EU but a large portion of the workforce travel into the republic to work everyday. They will no longer be able to do so under a no deal brexit.

Brexit looks like it could breakup the UK.

Kermit.de.frog

British tabloids have some curious front pages tomorrow.