Brexit discussion thread IV

PopePalpatine

Of course, clean British rats wouldn't dare abandon a ship that's hit troubled waters.

briany

Infini wrote: »

OR people up there galvanise serious support for a border poll. NI is in the unique position despite being divided of having a built in out against a Hard Brexit. The DUP shout's all it want's but in reality it looks disconnected from the majority of NI's population. Information we do have so far predicts a 60%+ support for a UI in the event of a Hard Brexit which show's the sheer irony of what I can only call the Dumbáss Unionist Party's stance.

What I will wonder is once Hard Brexit is a certainty what will people up the North do though. Will organisation's up there expecially the Border Communities Against Brexit group be able to reorganise into a broader Unification movement to get the people up North who voted against this out of this situation.

I'd be skeptical of that 60 percent figure when it comes down to it, and it's for this reason - a hard Brexit isn't necessarily a permanent arrangement. It's possible to sign a trade deal with the EU later on if and when the UK economy tanks after 2019, and the UK has to go back cap in hand, so Unionists might be feeling a lot of egg on their face if they voted for a UI and after a while the EU and UK came to terms, and I think this point would be heavily made during a Border Poll campaign.

FrancieBrady

Sand wrote: »

The only solution for the border is to 'de-dramatise' the so-called sea border between Britain and Northern Ireland.

Post of the day if not the preceding two years.

Tell the DUP to sling their hook, like it or lump it. Solves so many problems for so many people rather than salving a problem for an always belligerent minority.

Junkyard Tom

thesun.co.uk claiming T-May had a bitter row with the DUP who prevented her from getting a Brexit deal.

Oh how I'd love to see the British media collectively turn on the DUP and blame them for the mess.

Corb_lund

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Post of the day if not the preceding two years.

Tell the DUP to sling their hook, like it or lump it. Solves so many problems for so many people rather than salving a problem for an always belligerent minority.

The Brits don't work like that. And to think so risks a lot. DUP are very convenient a way of saying fúck off cûnts to the EU without saying that from Westminster.

briany

If their Parliament can push for a GE, you might be able to get a government that doesn't need the DUP confidence and supply arrangement, and then you could tell NI parties get assembly back up, and then have them vote on regulatory alignment.

Probably can't do all that in the next 2 months though.

Corb_lund

P.s just an observation, but it feels like people are far more likely in the past couple years to side with the "EU" over their own national interests? They conflate heavily at the moment but surely most diverge at some point.

Are we moving on as a nation to thinking more European than solely Irish? I know the people in the past might have had an objection but are we past that? Is it better to be European than Irish? Will it lead to a more stable Europe?

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

British tabloids have some curious front pages tomorrow.

That can't be real..

We can't wait to shake ourselves free of these two bit Euro mobsters!

That's a mock up surely

anto77

Is it too simplistic to see it as a situation where it has been adjudged that the greatest threat to the regular functioning of British society come March 30th 2019 is the absence of the free flow of goods and alternatively the greatest threat to the functioning of EU (Irish) society is a hard border and the threats associated with that?

So therefore the ‘good deal’ advocated by London boils down to continued support for an open border in the north in return for the flow of goods to the UK mainland?

Whilst all good and well to reference 4 pillars and cherry picking, the open border is a cherry that the EU (Ireland) needs from the UK.

Peace and stability on one island in return for peace and stability on the other.

Should we potentially fear a couple of incidents between now and a November summit that would draw attention to this?

An Ciarraioch

lawred2 wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

British tabloids have some curious front pages tomorrow.

That can't be real..

We can't wait to shake ourselves free of these two bit Euro mobsters!

That's a mock up surely

In fact, that was today's UK edition!

Kermit.de.frog

Also Macron is not the PM of France last time I checked.

briany

Corb_lund wrote: »

P.s just an observation, but it feels like people are far more likely in the past couple years to side with the "EU" over their own national interests? They conflate heavily at the moment but surely most diverge at some point.

Are we moving on as a nation to thinking more European than solely Irish? I know the people in the past might have had an objection but are we past that? Is it better to be European than Irish? Will it lead to a more stable Europe?

The political realities of today are that a country as small as Ireland is always going to be under the influence of one bloc or another. I know someone who is very anti-eu, and when I asked them who Ireland should align themselves with instead, the reply was America. It raised an eyebrow with me.

Few would be so naive as to think the EU is perfect, but I believe it's the least evil option.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

British tabloids have some curious front pages tomorrow.

Someone should send em this lol

anto77 wrote: »

Whilst all good and well to reference 4 pillars and cherry picking, the open border is a cherry that the EU (Ireland) needs from the UK.

In fairness the whole backstop issue isn't cherry picking. It's trying to limit the fallout from the UK leaving the EU and the fact that this border is on the Island of Ireland not the UK mainland. This wasn't gonna be an issue until May messed up with her GE gamble and ended up with the DUP blocking what would've been a straitfoward way out of the situation since the backstop was only intended to be a temporary solution until more workable one's could be put in place.

Look at it this way, the EU has given the UK a number of option's from previous agreements to choose from but May has essentially rejected them wanting to pick and choose specific elements while rejecting others. This isn't being allowed because the EU doesn't want the legal headaches from other 3rd party countries of which the UK will be one once it leaves from compromising the standards of the single market every EU member is a part of as well as a few other associate countries. The UK has repeatedly demanded they get their way or they'll threaten to leave with no deal. Problem with this is that the EU is prepared to let them leave and suffer the ruinous consequences of their own idiocy simply because they have standards to maintain and wont allow the UK to compromise them.

A Hard Border could go up but let's be honest this isn't likely to last because if the UK leave's with no agreement then they're essentially locked out of Europe logistically, legally and diplomatically. It will me a mess but one of the UK's own making. Any future agreement the UK will have with the EU will most likely need OUR approval because the majority of the EU will know we're the one's taking the brunt of the damage from British stupidity and they'll respect us on that not to agree to anything beforehand without a nod from us. On top of that I could see enough movement up the North during that time to at least trigger a border poll in a few years because Sinn Fein will capitalise completely on the Conservative's and DUP's idiocy to basically say "hey these guys ruined the place for no reason other than being idiotic zealot's but reunifying with the south and the EU can get us out of this mess". Take other groups like Border Communities Against Brexit pushing for a way out and the border could be a non issue in a few years as the North would be united with the rest of the island.

I honestly would love to see the look on the faces of the DUP should a border poll be held and the majority vote for reunification it would be in no small part satifying to see them fools get their just desert's for pushing such a stupid and idiotic policy and making a mess of ordinary peoples lives when they couldn't just leave things well enough alone.

Edit: Just a minor update but the E-£ rate is at 90p to the €1. Congrats May you got your currency to drop 2p in 24hrs.

Lemming

prawnsambo wrote: »

Just on what a no deal actually means. If you listen to this from about 4 and a half minutes in. It's Jason Hunter from three blokes in a pub (if you haven't heard of them, check youtube) who went to Geneva to ask questions of the WTO and then Brussels. The clip I'm highlighting here is what the WTO people said. In a nutshell is that they expect that Britain will get a trade deal with Canada easily enough, but the rest of the world will sit back and wait for the British agri-food industry to collapse (estimated between 18 months and two years) and then swoop in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVn1yWd14zU

Jesus that's not only sobering, the talk around the UK agri-foods sector was terrifying given the alleged WTO comments of seeing the sector collapse based on every scenario/model that they have run.

J Mysterio

Raab on LBC: interview and call in questions from Wednesday 19th, day of Salzburg conference. What's particularly interesting is that the call in is concurrent to the Salzbirg conference. It almost has echoes that moment GW heard about the Twin Towers in that primary school classroom.

I actually think he is quite a good politician, likeable and able. Its a shame people like him were not involved in senior levels of the Conservatives before now rather than cretins like Johnson, Gove, Davis etc. Nonetheless, Raab too is going down with the ship.

Charles Babbage

Shauny2010 wrote: »

How much love will northern Ireland have for the UK when the Doors of the EU slam shut. Its not just goods and services that they export into the EU but a large portion of the workforce travel into the republic to work everyday. They will no longer be able to do so under a no deal brexit.

Brexit looks like it could breakup the UK.

A certain proportion of the workforce works in the Republic, and they will continue to do so. It is bad enough without making it up.

Lemming wrote: »

Jesus that's not only sobering, the talk around the UK agri-foods sector was terrifying given the alleged WTO comments of seeing the sector collapse based on every scenario/model that they have run.

Some DUP voting farmers might like to reflect on the benefits of being decoupled from such a thing.

J Mysterio

Excellent stuff from Alistair Campbell from 14:00.

Possibly too late however.

Patser

At least The Sun are being more rational today.....

Angry bird

It's no deal or remain. The Tories are either betting on the EU caving in or a no deal all along in their pursuit of a capitalist nirvana free from an interfering Brussels. I think a no deal exit and the reality of a few years in a capitalist nirvana is required so joe bloggs realises he's been hoodwinked. We're going to have plenty of challenges to overcome ourselves, not least a new border.

prawnsambo

Lemming wrote: »

Jesus that's not only sobering, the talk around the UK agri-foods sector was terrifying given the alleged WTO comments of seeing the sector collapse based on every scenario/model that they have run.

Yeah. It's the almost matter of fact way it's delivered. No model predicted the sector lasting more than two years. Eight years to agree a trade deal with the EU. These are absolutely terrifying predictions for the UK economy. Apparently Liam Fox was told all this in the eight or so visits he made to the WTO. Are they that incompetent?

Calina

prawnsambo wrote: »

Lemming wrote: »

Jesus that's not only sobering, the talk around the UK agri-foods sector was terrifying given the alleged WTO comments of seeing the sector collapse based on every scenario/model that they have run.

Yeah. It's the almost matter of fact way it's delivered. No model predicted the sector lasting more than two years. Eight years to agree a trade deal with the EU. These are absolutely terrifying predictions for the UK economy. Apparently Liam Fox was told all this in the eight or so visits he made to the WTO. Are they that incompetent?

Fox isn't interested in the collateral damage in pursuit of his vision. So I do not think it is incompetence per se.

The disconnect between British self awareness and reality at the moment is terrifying. They danced a fandango over Tusk the other day but can't see that their fourth pillar behaviour makes Tusk look as tame as a caged budgie. The Express and Sun readers seem to be able to dish it out but not really take it at all.

I don't know what happens next. Are we going to stumble along until party conference season or what? What is it about both the UK and US that leaders are surviving mess ups that would have buried most if not all of their predecessors?

And I don't get why the UK's efforts have been so demonstrably poor. It is one thing to be looking down the throat of automatic exit without a withdrawal agreement. It is another thing to apparently have blind driven yourself to that position.

Rhineshark

Calina wrote: »

Fox isn't interested in the collateral damage in pursuit of his vision. So I do not think it is incompetence per se.

The disconnect between British self awareness and reality at the moment is terrifying. They danced a fandango over Tusk the other day but can't see that their fourth pillar behaviour makes Tusk look as tame as a caged budgie. The Express and Sun readers seem to be able to dish it out but not really take it at all.

I don't know what happens next. Are we going to stumble along until party conference season or what? What is it about both the UK and US that leaders are surviving mess ups that would have buried most if not all of their predecessors?

And I don't get why the UK's efforts have been so demonstrably poor. It is one thing to be looking down the throat of automatic exit without a withdrawal agreement. It is another thing to apparently have blind driven yourself to that position.

Bit in bold - zealotry and/or a complete shut down of any facts that don't suit the glorious populist narrative, be it breaking free of German slavery or supporting a malicious buffoon. Both lots were sold a pup and neither is going to back down.

Also there seems to be an element of "lol it make libruls cry".

As for why Brexit is so incompetant, they could not bring themselves to admit the truth to the electorate and have focussed on trying to reshape reality to fit the narrative. To some extent they have succeeded with their own supporters but it was never going to be straightforward to gaslight 27 other countries into joining in. So it was always going to hit a brick wall of reality.

No idea what happens next though. Anyone know what European media is saying?

First Up

Rhineshark wrote:

No idea what happens next though. Anyone know what European media is saying?

Very little actually. Nobody cares much.

swampgas

Rhineshark wrote: »

No idea what happens next though. Anyone know what European media is saying?

Some good articles in www.dw.com.

An Ciarraioch

Tony Connelly, as ever, appears to have the soberest reading of the week's events - interestingly, he claims the British proposal will cover not just regulation, but the "whole gamut" of checks, though how that'll correspond with May's red lines is another matter.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0921/995292-salzburg-chronic-misreading/

revelman

briany wrote: »

The political realities of today are that a country as small as Ireland is always going to be under the influence of one bloc or another. I know someone who is very anti-eu, and when I asked them who Ireland should align themselves with instead, the reply was America. It raised an eyebrow with me.

Few would be so naive as to think the EU is perfect, but I believe it's the least evil option.

I’d agree with this to a large extent. I think a country such as Ireland needs to be within the safe harbour of a large trading bloc. But I think it is what happens beyond this where you will find some disagreement. I’ve seen posts on this thread where people have argued for joining Schengen, for example, and others seem to have federalist-leanings. Personally, I don’t want a United States of Europe. I get extremely uncomfortable when I visit Brussels and people stand up for the EU anthem. The whole thing feels odd to me.

I have increasingly noticed a drift towards even more entrenched pro-EU talk since this Brexit fiasco has started. This is understandable in many ways. Since the revival of nationalism in Ireland in the late 19th century, we have constantly defined ourselves as being ‘not British’. Not being British has been a core part of identity building e.g. institutional emphasis on Catholicism with de Valera, Constitution etc; neutrality - not getting involved in WW2. I worry that with the British mess on Brexit, we are at least subconsciously drifting more towards pro-EU federalist thinking because of this deeply engrained ‘we are not British’ part of our complex identity.

Fair enough if people want a United States of Europe with all that entails. I would worry about our fate in that set up. Losing the British voice around the EU table is a big blow to us, in my opinion.

Enzokk

To bring a different view on this thread lets have some Nigel Farage.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1043084994074357760

Let's break down his argument to echo a little again. Firstly she was bullied by other elected leaders. Macron plunged the knife into her and her friend Orban just let her blood flow from the wound. Who needs enemies when you have friends like those, right?

Then who is leading the UK negotiations. We know who the secretary of state is, Dominic Raab, but as David Davis proved this is not the person in charge as much as a figurehead. Now this may have changed, but those behind him have not. This is Ollie Robbins, Tim Barrow and Sarah Healy, those appointed to the job from the civil service and other unelected positions.

Brexit: The people who are negotiating

I understand that people may say we echo a lot of news here but we are not the BBC that want to maintain impartiality here. Brexit has been shown to be a scam. People were promised their lives would be better off outside the EU and this has been shown to be a lie. They were told that trade would continue without a problem but immigration would be controlled, another lie. They were not told anything about the Irish border actually so not lies there, just abject irresponsibility from elected officials. They were lied to again and again and we are going to pay for those lies.

If there was a credible proposal where the UK could leave with the least amount of damage to either them or us and they could satisfy their leave voters it would have been on the table already. We can see how the attitude and words of Brexiteers have changed. First they told people it would be fine and they would be better off or no worse off. It had evolved to a point where MPs are telling you that going to WTO rules will not be the end of the world. When did we go from okay to the end of the world? This is on the backdrop of the US trying to destroy the WTO by blocking judges nominations. Without judges there is no WTO, so the UK want to trade on rules by an organization that will not have any way to ensure they can be enforced.

Just to post this here again on the option the UK has. There is nothing else, this is it, they have a menu and there is no special dishes or changes at this restaurant. Pick one and get on with it already.

Enzokk

revelman wrote: »

I’d agree with this to a large extent. I think a country such as Ireland needs to be within the safe harbour of a large trading bloc. But I think it is what happens beyond this where you will find some disagreement. I’ve seen posts on this thread where people have argued for joining Schengen, for example, and others seem to have federalist-leanings. Personally, I don’t want a United States of Europe. I get extremely uncomfortable when I visit Brussels and people stand up for the EU anthem. The whole thing feels odd to me.

I have increasingly noticed a drift towards even more entrenched pro-EU talk since this Brexit fiasco has started. This is understandable in many ways. Since the revival of nationalism in Ireland in the late 19th century, we have constantly defined ourselves as being ‘not British’. Not being British has been a core part of identity building e.g. institutional emphasis on Catholicism with de Valera, Constitution etc; neutrality - not getting involved in WW2. I worry that with the British mess on Brexit, we are at least subconsciously drifting more towards pro-EU federalist thinking because of this deeply engrained ‘we are not British’ part of our complex identity.

Fair enough if people want a United States of Europe with all that entails. I would worry about our fate in that set up. Losing the British voice around the EU table is a big blow to us, in my opinion.

Fair points, but on this thread I haven't seen many of the regular posters echo the view that they are anti-UK or happy that the UK will suffer. You may occasionally see someone post this view but I would hope the reply to this has been we will be hurt and it is not in our interest that the UK leaves the EU. Maybe that is why there is, in my opinion, not a lot of those type of posts. What we are trying to discuss and give our opinions on is what is happening and what is being reported.

On the bolded bit, it always comes down to the UK is leaving the EU and not the other way around. We do not want to lose the UK voice around the table, but they are walking away. That is their choice and we have to get used to it and plan for life without them. Honestly if this means that there will be a time we will need to put the boot in then so be it. They are out for themselves so why are people getting upset when we have to look out for ourselves?

I am not saying we should put the boot in, I am saying if the choice is the UK or EU we don't have a choice. We will be hurt by this choice, but going the other way will hurt many times more and is not an option.

Leroy42

Mission accomplished from TM, all the media is full of the determination, the anger, steadfast, putting it up to the EU, standing up for Britain etc.

The line has been accepted that the EU have done nothing to help, that TM was completely blindsided and ambushed, that despite the UK given clear proposals the EU has simply said no with no details of why or what they want.

Nobody is talking about the cluskerfu3k that is TM leadership, nobody is pointing out the obvious that EU didn't need to kill Chequers, the Tory party has already done that (Davies, Johnson and ERG being the leading lights). Nobody is asking why TM was caught so off guard, why after two years she still seemingly has no idea how to get a deal.

It was raised on BRexitcast, but not followed up, that TM's threat was based on nothing. SHe claimed that it was either Chequers or nothing, when it is pretty clear that the Parliament will not vote for either of these. So really Tm simply stood at the podium and told the UK, EU and the world that she has run out of ideas and has nothing left to offer. So she is going to wait in her office in the hope that the EU can solve her problems.

And this is treated as a Churchillian moment!

ancapailldorcha

revelman wrote: »

I’d agree with this to a large extent. I think a country such as Ireland needs to be within the safe harbour of a large trading bloc. But I think it is what happens beyond this where you will find some disagreement. I’ve seen posts on this thread where people have argued for joining Schengen, for example, and others seem to have federalist-leanings. Personally, I don’t want a United States of Europe. I get extremely uncomfortable when I visit Brussels and people stand up for the EU anthem. The whole thing feels odd to me.

I don't recall anyone arguing for joining Schengen and certainly not for a United States of Europe.

revelman wrote: »

I have increasingly noticed a drift towards even more entrenched pro-EU talk since this Brexit fiasco has started. This is understandable in many ways. Since the revival of nationalism in Ireland in the late 19th century, we have constantly defined ourselves as being ‘not British’. Not being British has been a core part of identity building e.g. institutional emphasis on Catholicism with de Valera, Constitution etc; neutrality - not getting involved in WW2. I worry that with the British mess on Brexit, we are at least subconsciously drifting more towards pro-EU federalist thinking because of this deeply engrained ‘we are not British’ part of our complex identity.

I don't know. I think our attitude towards the EU is the polar opposite of the UK's. For example, I'm from rural Donegal and there's a fair few signs indicating various projects that the EU has funded. Haven't seen a single one in England. Literally not one. Anecdotal of course.

Irish politicians should still be wary of any European attempts to undermine corporation tax though given how assertive they've been with the Irish border, I am not worried.

revelman wrote: »

Fair enough if people want a United States of Europe with all that entails. I would worry about our fate in that set up. Losing the British voice around the EU table is a big blow to us, in my opinion.

Very much so. I made this point earlier:

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well, it is in the EU's interests to maintain good relations with the UK. The UK is an important trade partner, particularly for Ireland, an important destination for EU migrants and a vital security partner especially given its membership of the Five Eyes agreement, security services and armed forces.

However, British politicians know this and think it is enough to incentivize the EU to compromise its core values in order to give the Brexiteers what they want. This is folly on their part and the result is that now we are heading towards no deal because neither of the two main UK parties have even worked out their own stance on the issue, much less begun to negotiate properly.

In the meantime, the EU has behaved exactly as expected. It's stayed united, particularly with regard to Ireland and has been serious from the get go with special regard for the core values and the integrity of the single market. It's simply to important to compromise this simply because the Conservative party can't keep itself from self-mutilation.

In addition, I would also add that the UK has historically been an important ally to the Eastern European states as well as to other countries like Denmark and the Netherlands who are encouraged by having a large ally like the UK in Europe.