Brexit discussion thread IV

revelman

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't recall anyone arguing for joining Schengen and certainly not for a United States of Europe.



I don't know. I think our attitude towards the EU is the polar opposite of the UK's. For example, I'm from rural Donegal and there's a fair few signs indicating various projects that the EU has funded. Haven't seen a single one in England. Literally not one. Anecdotal of course.

Irish politicians should still be wary of any European attempts to undermine corporation tax though given how assertive they've been with the Irish border, I am not worried.



Very much so. I made this point earlier:



In addition, I would also add that the UK has historically been an important ally to the Eastern European states as well as to other countries like Denmark and the Netherlands who are encouraged by having a large ally like the UK in Europe.

I think we are on the same page. Yesterday, on this thread there were a couple of posters talking about joining Schengen. I could be completely wrong of course but I do sense a federalist undertone to some contributions and I was trying to better understand it.

As for signs about EU funding in England, I’m no expert on this but I imagine there are far fewer such projects funded by the EU, at least in England. I guess you will find them in Wales and Scotland. I also seem to remember an EU funding sign in Cornwall.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mission accomplished from TM, all the media is full of the determination, the anger, steadfast, putting it up to the EU, standing up for Britain etc.

The line has been accepted that the EU have done nothing to help, that TM was completely blindsided and ambushed, that despite the UK given clear proposals the EU has simply said no with no details of why or what they want.

Nobody is talking about the cluskerfu3k that is TM leadership, nobody is pointing out the obvious that EU didn't need to kill Chequers, the Tory party has already done that (Davies, Johnson and ERG being the leading lights). Nobody is asking why TM was caught so off guard, why after two years she still seemingly has no idea how to get a deal.

It was raised on BRexitcast, but not followed up, that TM's threat was based on nothing. SHe claimed that it was either Chequers or nothing, when it is pretty clear that the Parliament will not vote for either of these. So really Tm simply stood at the podium and told the UK, EU and the world that she has run out of ideas and has nothing left to offer. So she is going to wait in her office in the hope that the EU can solve her problems.

And this is treated as a Churchillian moment!

I wonder how much of the newspaper coverage is about knowing there really isn't anything else past her. If the Sun and the Daily Mail and the Express and Telegraph twist the knife she will be done for. That would mean that someone else will need to come in to clean up the mess, either with an election or just a new Tory leader. If this is done before Brexit day they will be showered in the blowback as well so why expose the person you want in charge?

If JRM or Johnson can come in post Brexit and clean up some of the mess all the bad consequences will fall on May.

What is interesting though is that many writers, in their personal opinion from those papers, are writing on how feeble she is. This is an example:

https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1043205358372761601

There is a few tweets in that thread that can be read.

listermint

Sassygirl1999 wrote: »

BBC interviewing farmers all around the UK yesterday
Majority were saying :
"I didn't vote for it but lets just get on with it"
A democratic car crash in slow motion

BBC interviewing pre planned farmers yesterday cutting out any with differing opinion.

The BBC lost the run of itself some years ago. They are editorially handcuffed

gandalf

listermint wrote: »

BBC interviewing pre planned farmers yesterday cutting out any with differing opinion.

The BBC lost the run of itself some years ago. They are editorially handcuffed

They rely on the government for funding so it's understandable that they don't want to be the ones rocking the boat. Same thing with RTE over here.

listermint

gandalf wrote: »

They rely on the government for funding so it's understandable that they don't want to be the ones rocking the boat. Same thing with RTE over here.

There's not rocking the boat and there is full blown propaganda mode . Last two years has been propaganda mode. It's rare if ever you'll see remainers interviewed instead they settle for the extremes

Igotadose

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mission accomplished from TM, all the media is full of the determination, the anger, steadfast, putting it up to the EU, standing up for Britain etc.

The line has been accepted that the EU have done nothing to help, that TM was completely blindsided and ambushed, that despite the UK given clear proposals the EU has simply said no with no details of why or what they want.

Nobody is talking about the cluskerfu3k that is TM leadership, nobody is pointing out the obvious that EU didn't need to kill Chequers, the Tory party has already done that (Davies, Johnson and ERG being the leading lights). Nobody is asking why TM was caught so off guard, why after two years she still seemingly has no idea how to get a deal.

It was raised on BRexitcast, but not followed up, that TM's threat was based on nothing. SHe claimed that it was either Chequers or nothing, when it is pretty clear that the Parliament will not vote for either of these. So really Tm simply stood at the podium and told the UK, EU and the world that she has run out of ideas and has nothing left to offer. So she is going to wait in her office in the hope that the EU can solve her problems.

And this is treated as a Churchillian moment!

Another sockpuppet, Jeremy Hunt, has said the "EU need to step back from the abyss."

He needs a clue infusion. It's not the EU at the abyss, no airplanes, no medication, no joint police warrants, loss of jobs... https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0922/995368-brexit/

All posturing before their conference imo. Whistling past the graveyard.

Still, cheap sterling does make it attractive to visit! We've definitely upped our online shopping from the UK since the referendum. An Post's got a service where you can give the deliverer a UK address and they'll transship to Ireland, avoiding most of the problems with broken UK websites that only understand UK delivery addresses!

Enzokk

revelman wrote: »

I think we are on the same page. Yesterday, on this thread there were a couple of posters talking about joining Schengen. I could be completely wrong of course but I do sense a federalist undertone to some contributions and I was trying to better understand it.

As for signs about EU funding in England, I’m no expert on this but I imagine there are far fewer such projects funded by the EU, at least in England. I guess you will find them in Wales and Scotland. I also seem to remember an EU funding sign in Cornwall.

Whether there is more or less projects or funding per person depends on how you read it. It does seem that Wales and Northern Ireland are the highest recipients of funding and projects from the EU. One voted to leave and the other remain. It is amazing that NI voted to remain when one of their parties campaigned to leave the EU. That is an almost automatic 30% of the vote just because the DUP said so. It is just as amazing that Wales vote leave.

But there are still areas in the UK that received substantial funds from the EU and that has a few projects that the EU is involved in.

Mapped: Where in the UK receives most EU funding and how does this compare with the rest of Europe?

Examples of EU Funding

UsBus

Can't see negotiations going anywhere now after this week's events. TM will be hellbent on taking the UK out if she perceives she was truly humiliated. It really has a feeling of the perfect storm being conjured up and who knows what we are in for next year. All bets are off with economical outcomes. I'm watching my stocks very carefully from now on that's for sure.

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

Excellent stuff from Alistair Campbell from 14:00.

Possibly too late however.

Have to say despite the host repeatedly trying to change the subject or detract he held his ground pretty well there.

ancapailldorcha

Name calling posts deleted.

First Up

revelman wrote:

I’d agree with this to a large extent. I think a country such as Ireland needs to be within the safe harbour of a large trading bloc. But I think it is what happens beyond this where you will find some disagreement. I’ve seen posts on this thread where people have argued for joining Schengen, for example, and others seem to have federalist-leanings. Personally, I don’t want a United States of Europe. I get extremely uncomfortable when I visit Brussels and people stand up for the EU anthem. The whole thing feels odd to me.

Schengen has nothing to do with a federal or united states of Europe. It is a logical element of the single market. We'd be in it now only for the UK's refusal to join and our long standing FTA with them.

There is no downside to Schengen and many benefits. If Brexit goes pear shaped we should (and would) join the next day.

Imreoir2

Theresa May suggested in her statement that the UK would bring forward fresh proposals on the backstop in the near future.

Any speculation on what those proposals might look like? So far I have only seen suggestions that it will just be another atempt to make the backstop UK wide rather than NI specific, which will obviously go nowhere.

There was a hint in her statement, I think, that the UK will allow divergence between GB and NI, but only if that divergance has the consent of the devolved administration in NI. It's hard to see how that would work in practice given that the administration in NI has not been functioning for over a year and a half with no sign of change. If true though, such a proposal might be an atempt by the DUP to maintain some from of Veto over economic arangements between NI and the UK even after they lose their cortrol over Westminster after the next General Election.

McGiver

ancapailldorcha wrote:

I don't know. I think our attitude towards the EU is the polar opposite of the UK's. For example, I'm from rural Donegal and there's a fair few signs indicating various projects that the EU has funded. Haven't seen a single one in England. Literally not one. Anecdotal of course.

Also, you don't see EU flags anywhere in England. Director of the Brexit documentary Postcards from the 48 tried hard and found one in the end (I think in London).

Water John

Is a majority of NI Assembly a simple majority or a majority of each side? Will SF overtake the DUP as the largest Party in the Assembly after the next election?

Capt'n Midnight

briany wrote: »

The political realities of today are that a country as small as Ireland is always going to be under the influence of one bloc or another. I know someone who is very anti-eu, and when I asked them who Ireland should align themselves with instead, the reply was America. It raised an eyebrow with me.

Few would be so naive as to think the EU is perfect, but I believe it's the least evil option.

You only have to look at Puerto Rico which has been under US control since 1898 to dispel any notions of us becoming a 51st state or how benevolent US control would be.

They've been full US citizens since 1917 (not like the Mickey Mouse "British National (Overseas)" stuff.) and look how they were treated after the hurricane.

Look at the debt. Look at the infrastructure.

And they've got taxation without representation.


US corporations use the US Virgin Islands: (bought from Denmark) as a tax haven so neither we nor Puerto Rico would be useful for that.

If you aren't a US state or don't have a powerful lobby and geopolitical importance like Israel you don't get much.


Our constitution means you need referendums to roll back certain EU regulations , things the US don't like, like workers rights.

It would be everything that's wrong with aligning with the UK and expecting any gratitude when they no longer need us and then some.


Yes we need to belong to a bloc, and we have a lot more power in the EU than we'd be likely to get in any other. By comparison a seat on the UN security council is moot since the Nuclear Powers can veto stuff. Thanks to our targeted foreign aid we have quite a bit of soft power in Africa, something that a close US alliance might undermine.

McGiver

ancapailldorcha wrote:

Irish politicians should still be wary of any European attempts to undermine corporation tax though given how assertive they've been with the Irish border, I am not worried.

Is the corporation tax really your only point for which you would prefer to outright reject any (con)federation? What if the tax model was based on the Swiss model - federal base minimum rate (say 10%) and then cantonal (in EU case member state level) on top of that, cantons free to choose their tax rate.

ancapailldorcha

McGiver wrote: »

Also, you don't see EU flags anywhere in England. Director of the Brexit documentary Postcards from the 48 tried hard and found one in the end (I think in London).

Indeed. I see EU flags now and again when I visit the continent. Even saw some in Chisinau and Kiev.

McGiver

Igotadose wrote:

He needs a clue infusion. It's not the EU at the abyss, no airplanes, no medication, no joint police warrants, loss of jobs...

New European podcast moderator jokingly speculated in their last podcast whether Gove et al are not actually micro dosing LSD imitating some Silicon Valley officers in order to get creative

murphaph

First Up wrote: »

Schengen has nothing to do with a federal or united states of Europe. It is a logical element of the single market. We'd be in it now only for the UK's refusal to join and our long standing FTA with them.

There is no downside to Schengen and many benefits. If Brexit goes pear shaped we should (and would) join the next day.

We can't join as long as NI doesn't. Even in the event of a hard customs and regulatory border, the CTA will survive and no Irish politician would suggest asking for passports at that border, which Schengen would require (both coming in and going out).

anto77

I don’t think London are stupid. After Brexit was voted through the only card they had to negotiate with was continued support for an open border. This was always going to be held back for the end game.

It could never be spoken publically but peace on this island is being taken hostage.
No free movement of goods then the hard border goes up.
Give UK free movement of goods, things continue as-is in Ireland.

Rhineshark

anto77 wrote: »

I don’t think London are stupid. After Brexit was voted through the only card they had to negotiate with was continued support for an open border. This was always going to be held back for the end game.

It could never be spoken publically but peace on this island is being taken hostage.
No free movement of goods then the hard border goes up.
Give UK free movement of goods, things continue as-is in Ireland.

Which is why the EU tactic was getting it sorted in P1. Don't think anyone realised just how determined the UK was to force this situation.

EdgeCase

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lisa Chambers has a rather "unique" take on this week's summit - somehow the Government's at fault for talking to Macron, and relations with the UK are bad because everyone else was mean to May!

https://mobile.twitter.com/lichamber/status/1043123787934388224

I suspect the Tories are attempting to use FF to take down the Irish government before March. Are they really going to fall for that?

Or, has FF decided to become some kind of new Tory party in Ireland where they'll start taking Eurosceptic positions?

The Tories are going to try to break the Irish political line which has been solid from all the major parties and it looks like FF are going for it - hook, line and sinker.

We could really do with out inhaling a dose of British political madness and infighting, at least until after march!

I don't really see what's to be gained by holding the UK's hand as it jumps off a cliff.

Also nobody's bullying May. She's the one arriving in shouting the odds and the Tories are simply now twisting the fact that 27 countries didn't roll over for them into "bullying". It's absolute spin and nonsense.

It's like concluding that you're bullying the school bully by simply not handing over your lunch money which hurt his feelings.

It's very much the Tories who've put Ireland into this precarious position. It's the Tories who, despite countless warnings by experts and commentators in Ireland and Britian, have basically undermined the 30+ years of delicate negotiations that brought about the peace process. It's the Tories who are proposing a suicidal economic policy for their own country based entirely on jibgosism and fantasy and who continue to ignore all advice and expert opinion on the matter. Brexit is entirely about the Tories and their internal party before country politics.

Yet somehow FF seem to now want to blame the Irish government? This is the ultimate in Irish self deprecating nonsense.

Imreoir2

EdgeCase wrote: »

I suspect the Tories are attempting to use FF to take down the Irish government before March. Are they really going to fall for that?

Or, has FF decided to become some kind of new Tory party in Ireland where they'll start taking Eurosceptic positions?

The Tories are going to try to break the Irish political line which has been solid from all the major parties and it looks like FF are going for it - hook, line and sinker.

We could really do with out inhaling a dose of British political madness and infighting, at least until after march!

I don't really see what's to be gained by holding the UK's hand as it jumps off a cliff.

Also nobody's bullying May. She's the one arriving in shouting the odds and the Tories are simply now twisting the fact that 27 countries didn't roll over for them into "bullying". It's absolute spin and nonsense.

It's like concluding that you're bullying the school bully by simply not handing over your lunch money which hurt his feelings.

I think you are reading way to much into it, FF is just trying to fling some mud at the government to see what sticks. I don't think they will be going down that line in a coordinated maner. If Leo looked like he was being too soft on the UK they would attack him for that.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

Is a majority of NI Assembly a simple majority or a majority of each side? Will SF overtake the DUP as the largest Party in the Assembly after the next election?

No and No.

Very, very roughly you can think of NI as 40% Unionist, 40% Nationalist and 20% others like immigrants and minorities and LGBT others who don't fall under the tribal headings. But its First Past The Post so the SDLP and UUP MP's have been squeezed out over the years and this has hugely impacted on their finances. SF have been accommodating minorities too, because the DUP don't. Alliance and other small parties are also caught in the middle. And like down here there are independents too.

FPFT means that Nationalists should be voting TUV (who make the DUP look like wishy washy liberals) because at best it's "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" or at least to promote in-fighting on the Unionist side.

Had just 444 more people signed a petition then Paisley's re-election campaign could have been interesting. However, only 3 centres were open and mostly during opening hours and the electorate were told that all signatures were public. Had there been 10 centres open or had there been extended opening hours or had more people known about the anonymity of the postal vote then Mrs May's majority in Westminster could have dropped.




Thanks to the latest round of minor Gerrymandering (the Tories will also gain seats in the UK) the DUP will regain enough seats to be able to use and abuse the Petition Of Concern to block anything they don't like.

It was a mechanism designed to prevent one side using it's majority to rail road stuff through. If 30 MLA's sign a petition about sectarian concerns then a vote needs a majority from both sides.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-23247074

In such cases, a vote on proposed legislation will only pass if supported by a weighted majority (60%) of members voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.

So if the DUP have more than 40% of MLA's present there's no way for anyone else to get 60%. And without them there's no way of getting 40% of the MLA's designated as Unionist present and voting.


What this means is the DUP can't use the petition of concern in NI now, but since the Assembly isn't sitting its moot. At the next election they probably will , in which case they can hold off a border poll any new legislation . But since May isn't likely to need them next election , if she wins, that too may be moot.

First Up

murphaph wrote:

We can't join as long as NI doesn't. Even in the event of a hard customs and regulatory border, the CTA will survive and no Irish politician would suggest asking for passports at that border, which Schengen would require (both coming in and going out).

That depends on what the Britain/NI arrangements look like post Brexit. If there are checks (however discreet) on goods crossing between them, an ID check isn't a huge addition.

An Ciarraioch

Enzokk wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mission accomplished from TM, all the media is full of the determination, the anger, steadfast, putting it up to the EU, standing up for Britain etc.

The line has been accepted that the EU have done nothing to help, that TM was completely blindsided and ambushed, that despite the UK given clear proposals the EU has simply said no with no details of why or what they want.

Nobody is talking about the cluskerfu3k that is TM leadership, nobody is pointing out the obvious that EU didn't need to kill Chequers, the Tory party has already done that (Davies, Johnson and ERG being the leading lights). Nobody is asking why TM was caught so off guard, why after two years she still seemingly has no idea how to get a deal.

It was raised on BRexitcast, but not followed up, that TM's threat was based on nothing. SHe claimed that it was either Chequers or nothing, when it is pretty clear that the Parliament will not vote for either of these. So really Tm simply stood at the podium and told the UK, EU and the world that she has run out of ideas and has nothing left to offer. So she is going to wait in her office in the hope that the EU can solve her problems.

And this is treated as a Churchillian moment!

I wonder how much of the newspaper coverage is about knowing there really isn't anything else past her. If the Sun and the Daily Mail and the Express and Telegraph twist the knife she will be done for. That would mean that someone else will need to come in to clean up the mess, either with an election or just a new Tory leader. If this is done before Brexit day they will be showered in the blowback as well so why expose the person you want in charge?

If JRM or Johnson can come in post Brexit and clean up some of the mess all the bad consequences will fall on May.

What is interesting though is that many writers, in their personal opinion from those papers, are writing on how feeble she is. This is an example:

https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1043205358372761601

There is a few tweets in that thread that can be read.

Notable that Stanley has always been a staunch Brexiteer.

Sam Russell

First Up wrote: »

That depends on what the Britain/NI arrangements look like post Brexit. If there are checks (however discreet) on goods crossing between them, an ID check isn't a huge addition.

Well, checking people is totally irrelevant since they will be checked at the ports as currently happens - so no change there whatever is agreed. Ryanair started this to stop people travelling on other peoples tickets.

It would be reasonable for NI based businesses to be allowed to move their goods freely to the GB part of the UK, so no problem there. It could be done through 'trusted trader' or some such self certification. Smugglers could also self certify.

Currently, there are checks for agri goods and other stuff at GB ports for material moving to the island of Ireland, so no change there.

What is left? Well that data is a closely guarded secret as I have been unable to get any certainty in that information. I do not believe the UK published data as it is not collected accurately. For example, do Tesco distinguish shipments to Lisburn from those destined for Luton or Leeds?

EdgeCase

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think you are reading way to much into it, FF is just trying to fling some mud at the government to see what sticks. I don't think they will be going down that line in a coordinated maner. If Leo looked like he was being too soft on the UK they would attack him for that.

It doesn’t take much to tip Ireland into a very badly timed general election though, whatever the reason.

Imreoir2

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

What this means is the DUP can't use the petition of concern in NI now, but since the Assembly isn't sitting its moot. At the next election they probably will , in which case they can hold off a border poll. But since May isn't likely to need them next election , if she wins, that too may be moot.

A border poll is not a devolved matter, the Secretary of State for NI is legally obliged to call a referendum if at any time it is likely that such a referendum would result in Irish Unification. The DUP, with or without the petition of concern, cannot block this.

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

A border poll is not a devolved matter, the Secretary of State for NI is legally obliged to call a referendum if at any time it is likely that such a referendum would result in Irish Unification. The DUP, with or without the petition of concern, cannot block this.

So long as the consertvatives hold power though I could see them stalling for a bit and making excuses. Labour on the other hand would probably say to hell with it and let it go. DUP would be shyting themselves then.