Brexit discussion thread IV

Infini

EdgeCase wrote: »

It doesn’t take much to tip Ireland into a very badly timed general election though, whatever the reason.

FF atm are more bark than bite. They know FG have a significant lead on them in opinion polls. They also know that most people wont take too well to a GE right now its not the right time for this not with the Brits in the middle of political and economic hari kari right now. We just dont have the time for it right now. I can see them after all the huffing and puffing giving the C&S agreement a 1yr extention just to get past the fallout from Brexit as noone needs to be dealing with politics when NI and GB are essentially imploding from incompetence.

Capt'n Midnight

murphaph wrote: »

We can't join as long as NI doesn't. Even in the event of a hard customs and regulatory border, the CTA will survive and no Irish politician would suggest asking for passports at that border, which Schengen would require (both coming in and going out).

If there was a United Ireland then I can assure you that travellers from the UK would need to produce valid ID at passport control in Dublin Airport.

Just like they do now.




The CTA predates the EU so we kept it.

The UK aren't the only ones who could bluff on the border.
A hard border means the UK will have to increase the NI contributions to make up the shortfall.

If we reduce excise on fuel down here then the loss in revenue per litre will be made up on the volume flowing north. Revenue have been able to accurately model how much cross border smuggling occurs depending on the difference in prices on certain goods on either side. The last time there was a hard Border there was a point where there were 27,000 troops and 40% of the vehicle fuel up north was still smuggled or laundered.

It's not a question of if we could affect the NI economy, it's more like "If you want to affect it by that much, do this , this and this."


If the UK creates a hard border then should we threaten to join Schengen ?
Then if UK re-joins the EU then they'd have to join Schengen too and impose the same controls on Commonwealth visitors.


Even though we are in the CTA flying from here to the UK typically involves more screening than flying within Schengen. The main benefit of the CTA is on this island.

Calina

I disagree. Ourr airports are not configured for the CTA the way the UK's are so you still have to pass through border control here. The difference in Stansted between arriving from Ireland versus outside the CTA is unreal.

I would love to see Ireland in Schengen. It would be interesting to see what the difference would be in numbers.

Spook_ie

First Up wrote: »

Schengen has nothing to do with a federal or united states of Europe. It is a logical element of the single market. We'd be in it now only for the UK's refusal to join and our long standing FTA with them.

There is no downside to Schengen and many benefits. If Brexit goes pear shaped we should (and would) join the next day.

Yeah join Schengan and the first thing that goes would be the CTA, a border for the people as well as goods/services

murphaph

First Up wrote: »

That depends on what the Britain/NI arrangements look like post Brexit. If there are checks (however discreet) on goods crossing between them, an ID check isn't a huge addition.

It's one thing for Ireland to erect customs posts because we are obliged to by our EU membership but it would be political suicide to willingly impose passport controls. I have no problem with the current border and constitutional position of NI and I would accept customs controls rather than leave the EU but I would not like to see our government ask fellow Irish citizens to show their passports to cross that frontier. That would not sit well with me and I'm far from a republican or what have you and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Enzokk

Infini wrote: »

FF atm are more bark than bite. They know FG have a significant lead on them in opinion polls. They also know that most people wont take too well to a GE right now its not the right time for this not with the Brits in the middle of political and economic hari kari right now. We just dont have the time for it right now. I can see them after all the huffing and puffing giving the C&S agreement a 1yr extention just to get past the fallout from Brexit as noone needs to be dealing with politics when NI and GB are essentially imploding from incompetence.

This isn't a thread about Irish politics but it would be very hard for FF to attack anything domestically from the past 3 years. They allowed all to go through with the agreement they have with FG. If they attack a policy from FG the first question is why did you allow for it. If they attack the economy and how it has been handled, first question then is why did you vote for it to go through if you believe it is wrong. That is why it seems like you are getting attacks on Leo personally as they cannot attack policies they actually voted through.

First Up wrote: »

Schengen has nothing to do with a federal or united states of Europe. It is a logical element of the single market. We'd be in it now only for the UK's refusal to join and our long standing FTA with them.

There is no downside to Schengen and many benefits. If Brexit goes pear shaped we should (and would) join the next day.

I have never hoped Ireland would join Schengen or erect borders to join Schengen. But if the conditions brought about by Brexit means we have a chance to join, I would be very happy if we do. That is not hoping for it to happen but taking the opportunity should it present itself.

EdgeCase

The issue with the CTA is it’s rather vague and isn’t based on a bilateral treaty. It’s just a loose harmonization of domestic laws to allow it to function based more on a nod and a wink and a handshake.

It’s very unlike Schengen in the sense that it’s a very vague concept that either side could unilaterally modify without much issue other than political consequences.

Infini

murphaph wrote: »

It's one thing for Ireland to erect customs posts because we are obliged to by our EU membership but it would be political suicide to willingly impose passport controls. I have no problem with the current border and constitutional position of NI and I would accept customs controls rather than leave the EU but I would not like to see our government ask fellow Irish citizens to show their passports to cross that frontier. That would not sit well with me and I'm far from a republican or what have you and I'm sure I'm not alone.

I'm pretty certain if theres an imposition of border controls it would be on the British side not ours first. That being said I dont think there will be the political will to do so without serious trouble breaking out.

Infini

Enzokk wrote: »

I have never hoped Ireland would join Schengen or erect borders to join Schengen. But if the conditions brought about by Brexit means we have a chance to join, I would be very happy if we do. That is not hoping for it to happen but taking the opportunity should it present itself.

The only real chance of us joining Schengen would be in the event of a UI where a land border is no longer a factor and even at that it would need to involve some sort of deal that would allow former unionists to be able to travel to Britain hassle free.

murphaph

Calina wrote: »

I disagree. Ourr airports are not configured for the CTA the way the UK's are so you still have to pass through border control here. The difference in Stansted between arriving from Ireland versus outside the CTA is unreal.

I would love to see Ireland in Schengen. It would be interesting to see what the difference would be in numbers.

I live in Berlin. I'd love Schengen too but so long as NI is not in Schengen (or has not unified with Ireland due to Brexit fallout) then we will not see it. Schengen requires really strict border control. The Irish land border is practically impossible to police like that and most Irish people would be against it I believe.

Enzokk

Infini wrote: »

The only real chance of us joining Schengen would be in the event of a UI where a land border is no longer a factor and even at that it would need to involve some sort of deal that would allow former unionists to be able to travel to Britain hassle free.

Yeah, the chances of it happening seems very little right now, but the chances of a United Ireland seemed equally distant 30 months ago and yet we are actively discussing it as a possibility. For the former unionists, surely they would be able to keep their GB citizenship so they could travel to the UK as they please. There would be no need to make special arrangements. The arrangement would be on their status in Ireland more than travelling to the UK.

revelman

Enzokk wrote: »

Yeah, the chances of it happening seems very little right now, but the chances of a United Ireland seemed equally distant 30 months ago and yet we are actively discussing it as a possibility. For the former unionists, surely they would be able to keep their GB citizenship so they could travel to the UK as they please. There would be no need to make special arrangements. The arrangement would be on their status in Ireland more than travelling to the UK.

Why is everyone saying 'former unionists'? In the unlikely event of a United Ireland, there will still be unionists in the North in the same way there were still unionists in Ireland following the establishment of the Free State!

revelman

murphaph wrote: »

I live in Berlin. I'd love Schengen too but so long as NI is not in Schengen (or has not unified with Ireland due to Brexit fallout) then we will not see it. Schengen requires really strict border control. The Irish land border is practically impossible to police like that and most Irish people would be against it I believe.

Is your main reason for wanting Schengen because you live in Germany and it would be handy or do you see a broader benefit (e.g. do you think that it would have a positive economic knock-on effect?). I spent many years living in Germany and I never found passport control to be too much of a pain. From my perspective, if I had to choose between showing my passport going to continental Europe or the CTA, I'd chose the CTA not least for what it means for travel around our island.

murphaph

revelman wrote: »

Is your main reason for wanting Schengen because you live in Germany and it would be handy or do you see a broader benefit (e.g. do you think that it would have a positive economic knock-on effect?). I spent many years living in Germany and I never found passport control to be too much of a pain. From my perspective, if I had to choose between showing my passport going to continental Europe or the CTA, I'd chose the CTA not least for what it means for travel around our island.

I'm not sure you read my post. I'd also opt for the CTA over Schengen right now because of island of Ireland travel even though I rarely cross that border and Schengen would make my life easier.

Spook_ie

Enzokk wrote: »

Yeah, the chances of it happening seems very little right now, but the chances of a United Ireland seemed equally distant 30 months ago and yet we are actively discussing it as a possibility. For the former unionists, surely they would be able to keep their GB citizenship so they could travel to the UK as they please. There would be no need to make special arrangements. The arrangement would be on their status in Ireland more than travelling to the UK.

You effect Schengan then you effect passport controls regardless of the color of the passport

kowtow

Are there not more fundamental problems with introducing Schengen in Ireland?

I always assumed it relied on the Napoleonic code / Civil Code structures of countries, eg. compulsory registration with the police of where you live etc, obligation to carry identity.

So far as I am aware the Schengen system allows police forces of one country more direct access to the residence records of another country within the system, that combined with the EAW is how it effectively allows the police forces to cover one big area inside the borders.

I might be completely wrong and I am sure others will know better than I.

But would it be possible to introduce it here with our more Anglo Saxon legal system, would we have to have compulsory registration of dwelling?

Calina

I live in Luxembourg. Personally I would find Schengen far more palatable than the CTA. It is why I think the numbers would be interesting.

Airport queuing is increasingly onerous. I am not sure what period you lived in Germany but I have seen Dublin get increasingly worse in the last 10 years and Stansted was hell last week.

However, I think this is a side issue to the greater issue which is the UK is a nation of micromanagers who still somehow lack attention to detail. Hunt's comments today are either cynical or delusional; everyone is hurt by Brexit bit it is somehow up to the EU to capitulate or else. I find myself watching in fascination or horror. I cannot believe the UK civil service is anything other than aghast at whay their political masters are playing at.

Call me Al

Calina wrote: »

I live in Luxembourg. Personally I would find Schengen far more palatable than the CTA. It is why I think the numbers would be interesting.

Airport queuing is increasingly onerous. I am not sure what period you lived in Germany but I have seen Dublin get increasingly worse in the last 10 years and Stansted was hell last week.

However, I think this is a side issue to the greater issue which is the UK is a nation of micromanagers who still somehow lack attention to detail. Hunt's comments today are either cynical or delusional; everyone is hurt by Brexit bit it is somehow up to the EU to capitulate or else. I find myself watching in fascination or horror. I cannot believe the UK civil service is anything other than aghast at whay their political masters are playing at.

Calina , you should take a look at the C4 news clip from last night that was linked here in an earlier post.
You may find it somewhat reassuring to hear a pragmatic moderate voice within the Tory party. They do exist.
Even the Brexit supporting backbencher said there would be a deal. Because there had to be..

ancapailldorcha

Call me Al wrote: »

Calina , you should take a look at the C4 news clip from last night that was linked here in an earlier post.
You may find it somewhat reassuring to hear a pragmatic moderate voice within the Tory party. They do exist.
Even the Brexit supporting backbencher said there would be a deal. Because there had to be..

I think most Tories are fairly pragmatic. The problem is twofold. First, that pragmatism relates to their own careers so none of them are going to rock the boat too hard. Most of them are remainers based on those who were elected in 2017 (Source):

All Conservative MPs (total: 317)
Remain — 176
Leave — 138
Not disclosed — 3

New intake (total: 32)
Remain — 18
Leave — 13
Not disclosed — 1

Second, I think the fear of being targeted as an "Enemy of the people" is very much still around. If it's being used to denigrate judges of all people then those rightwing voices that the Conservative party depends so heavily on will suddenly turn on them. Not the party as a whole as supporting UKIP would half the vote and the latter is not a credibly party to most people in any case. However, that reservation wouldn't protect replaceable MP's.

Of course, it's possible that they've just embraced Brexit as a done and dusted issue even though it's nowhere near resolution.

Until there is a much bigger and more visible shift in public opinion this won't change. People aren't going to torch their careers unless they think they'll succeed in stopping Brexit.

Lemming

revelman wrote: »

As for signs about EU funding in England, I’m no expert on this but I imagine there are far fewer such projects funded by the EU, at least in England. I guess you will find them in Wales and Scotland. I also seem to remember an EU funding sign in Cornwall.

Not all EU funding is for grand structural projects. A lot of it is grants aimed at businesses & social organisations. More than enough spread around Sheffield, never mind anywhere else but you'd never know it because it's not advertised. There's a map website that shows funding based on your postcode/region, thus why I am aware of where such funding has gone.

What few grand structural project sorts I've seen in and around Yorkshire - and I would imagine it's similar for the rest of England - is if there is mention of EU funding, it's in the smallest print possible.

Calina

Until pragmatic voices are in charge I expect little to change. They are not in charge.

But I also think there is a cultural thing here too. I did some industrial relations negotiation in Ireland and it went down to the wire. There was no practical need for it but optics demanded it did and neither side was interested in the details of the outcome - only that they could claim to win. As someone a bit more used to joint discussions for mutually beneficial outcomes in German industry this stuck in my throat. But I see that attitude in the UK negotiating behaviour. The details don't matter. Sticking it to the EU does.

revelman

Lemming wrote: »

Not all EU funding is for grand structural projects. A lot of it is grants aimed at businesses & social organisations. More than enough spread around Sheffield, never mind anywhere else but you'd never know it because it's not advertised. There's a map website that shows funding based on your postcode/region, thus why I am aware of where such funding has gone.

What few grand structural project sorts I've seen in and around Yorkshire - and I would imagine it's similar for the rest of England - is if there is mention of EU funding, it's in the smallest print possible.

We have to put all of this in context though - the UK's position as a net contributor to the EU for many years. According to the most recent House of Commons report on this issue, 'in 2017 the UK made an estimated gross contribution (after the rebate) of £13.0 billion. The UK received £4.1 billion of public sector receipts from the EU, so the UK's net public sector contribution to the EU was an estimated £8.9 billion.'

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886

Within this context, I'm not sure that signs and references to EU funding would make any difference to the general public's attitudes to the EU. (Btw - I know things are far more complicated than this e.g. the UK's contributions to the EU had an indirect effect on growing the Irish economy (to take just one example), which in turn had benefits for the UK over the longer term but many British people would not see things this way, I guess).

In Ireland, despite the fact that we are net contributors now, the memories of the EU being good to us are firmly rooted after decades of support. So the signs mean something very different here.

murphaph

Germany is the paymaster of the EU but EU projects are still clearly signposted as such. The Germans obviously know it's really their money. The British are simply lousy Europeans. I'm getting to the point where I've really had enough of their attitude and just wish we didn't share an island with them. Things would be much simpler that way. They will never understand what benefits the single market brings them without leaving it, at least for a decade or two.

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

It doesn’t take much to tip Ireland into a very badly timed general election though, whatever the reason.

The numbers are very easy.

If FF trigger an election they won't be returned as the majority party in a new government. If Brexit goes pear shaped they can blame FG.

Neither would want to to be in a collation with SF, a party that don't regard either the Irish or UK governments as being legitimate here. Especially at time when NI is front and centre. Supply and confidence with SF ? Nah.

Better the devil you know.

Lemming

revelman wrote: »

Within this context, I'm not sure that signs and references to EU funding would make any difference to the general public's attitudes to the EU. (Btw - I know things are far more complicated than this e.g. the UK's contributions to the EU had an indirect effect on growing the Irish economy (to take just one example), which in turn had benefits for the UK over the longer term but many British people would not see things this way, I guess).

A lack of signs isn't the problem; you're absolutely right and it would make little odds save to make a small fraction of a percentage of people stop and think. The problem with the UK's attitude to the EU is mired in a combination of exceptionalism and rank (and by rank I really mean below the lowest level possible) ignorance of what the EU is, what it does, and to educate those of an illiterate, exceptionalist persuasion; what it cannot do. All aided and abetted by a political elite that claims everyone else is sick of elites and thus should bow & scrape to their every word, and a complicit media.

I've heard some remarkably peculiar things about the EU over the years from people I know or have met. Some of it long before Brexit was even a thing, save in demented 'kipper circles. And no matter how much you keep explaining why "it" (whatever the "it" is for that particular person) is incorrect, they just keep coming back to it like they've been indoctrinated to view the EU that way.

Christy42

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

EdgeCase wrote: »

It doesn’t take much to tip Ireland into a very badly timed general election though, whatever the reason.

The numbers are very easy.

If FF trigger an election they won't be returned as the majority party in a new government. If Brexit goes pear shaped they can blame FG.

Neither would want to to be in a collation with SF, a party that don't regard either the Irish or UK governments as being legitimate here. Especially at time when NI is front and centre. Supply and confidence with SF ? Nah.

Better the devil you know.

Added to this if they forced a ge and got into government they would follow the exact same policy. They are giving out about fg in this regard because they are the opposition. They know this as well.

Capt'n Midnight

Infini wrote: »

The only real chance of us joining Schengen would be in the event of a UI where a land border is no longer a factor and even at that it would need to involve some sort of deal that would allow former unionists to be able to travel to Britain hassle free.

But sure all they'd have to do is flash their blue passports and they'll be waved through.


In reality automated passport control is getting that good with the eye scanning thing and the automated gates and the smart chips in passports. Spend a couple of quid in the ports and airports so there's enough so there's no big queues.


But if May can't sell electronic borders to Unionists, who are more British than the British themselves, how can Johnny Foreigner be expected to understand how well they'll work ?

revelman

murphaph wrote: »

Germany is the paymaster of the EU but EU projects are still clearly signposted as such. The Germans obviously know it's really their money. The British are simply lousy Europeans. I'm getting to the point where I've really had enough of their attitude and just wish we didn't share an island with them. Things would be much simpler that way. They will never understand what benefits the single market brings them without leaving it, at least for a decade or two.

I lived in Germany for 10 years and I don't remember seeing many of those signs at least compared to Ireland. I see you are in Berlin so it might be different there after unification.

I share your frustration, I really do, but I think you'd agree that the context is very different in Germany. The Germans traditionally supported substantial EU integration because of their troubled past and their (complicated) reaction to that past wanting to 'make up' for it (as people like Habermas and others have demonstrated).

In the end, most Europeans (including most Brits I think) always saw the distinct benefits of the European integration in the sense that it created a free trade area. But anyone who has spent anytime working in or with the EU (though they won't publicly admit it) knows that the EU turned into a bureaucratic monster, reaching into all sorts of areas that it didn't really need to reach into. I know mine is probably a minority view here but I think when we apply a standard of who is a 'good European' or a 'lousy European', we have to ask what are we measuring this against? In that the a slim majority of British people didn't want to be a part of what the EU morphed into in 2016, does this mean that the Brits are lousy Europeans?

The above might not make full sense - I'm thinking while I'm writing - these are all big and interesting issues!

flatty

revelman wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

Germany is the paymaster of the EU but EU projects are still clearly signposted as such. The Germans obviously know it's really their money. The British are simply lousy Europeans. I'm getting to the point where I've really had enough of their attitude and just wish we didn't share an island with them. Things would be much simpler that way. They will never understand what benefits the single market brings them without leaving it, at least for a decade or two.

I lived in Germany for 10 years and I don't remember seeing many of those signs at least compared to Ireland. I see you are in Berlin so it might be different there after unification.

I share your frustration, I really do, but I think you'd agree that the context is very different in Germany. The Germans traditionally supported substantial EU integration because of their troubled past and their (complicated) reaction to that past wanting to 'make up' for it (as people like Habermas and others have demonstrated).

In the end, most Europeans (including most Brits I think) always saw the distinct benefits of the European integration in the sense that it created a free trade area. But anyone who has spent anytime working in or with the EU (though they won't publicly admit it) knows that the EU turned into a bureaucratic monster, reaching into all sorts of areas that it didn't really need to reach into. I know mine is probably a minority view here but I think when we apply a standard of who is a 'good European' or a 'lousy European', we have to ask what are we measuring this against? In that the a slim majority of British people didn't want to be a part of what the EU morphed into in 2016, does this mean that the Brits are lousy Europeans?

The above might not make full sense - I'm thinking while I'm writing - these are all big and interesting issues!

That's a very good post.

Sassygirl1999

flatty wrote: »

That's a very good post.

the brits leaving might slow the integration, unlikely though