Brexit discussion thread IV

LuckyLloyd

Corbyn suppprting a second referendum opens up an alternative outcome at the 11th hour just as crash out looked a certainty. You can fight an election on that allied to the #forthemanynotthefew

And you can pin the Conservatives down by making it your Brexit policy.

Angry bird

The Tories are not interested in a deal, they know full well what the single market means, what the customs union means, and what any trade deal re Irish border means. They simply cannot be seen to give into the EU, cannot be seen to pointing out the lies of the Brexit campaign and the lies of blaming the EU for all sorts for decades. This has led to so called ERG effectively setting the agenda, with bombastic language and rule Britannia, as an effective counter to any domestic criticism. Nothing the EU can do about it, it's a British domestic issue to resolve. If and when the average Joe finds out they've been played all along, there'll be he'll to play. All we can do is make soothing noises, remain patient and let the drama play out.

LuckyLloyd

Calina wrote: »

Arguably the UK has engaged in significantly more drama given the antics and comments of the former Foreign Secretary, the comments about being a bloody difficult woman, the fight of the summer regarding time tabling, the antics in Salzburg including the reading of the Die Welt article to 27 other EU leaders and yesterday's theatrics at No 10. The UK Government has been playing to the gallery at all stages but not obviously negotiating in good faith given the follow up to December's agreement in principle regarding Northern Ireland as an example.

EU doesn't play to the UK gallery. They have been monumentally patient in the face of UK rank idiocy tbh. The UK did not prepare contingencies for one outcome of an ill advised, ill defined and poorly run referendum. The governing parties don't speak with one voice, the senior governing party cannot speak with one voice and in fact the cabinet does not speak with one voice. All of the drama in this mess is rooted in UK behaviour. Tusk has on more than one occasion offered the UK the gift of stepping back from hitting itself in the face with a hammer. Macron also. Many MEPs have spoken of the sadness and loss to the EU project of Britain. But the response on the UK side has been a mixture of angry pride, wilful ignorance and rank impoliteness. The overwhelming narrative has been They Need Us More Than We Need Them and so they have made demands which make it clear that in fact the UK needs more from the EU than it has ever been willing to admit. To compare that to the need to provide economic and especially technical aid to Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal is to fundamentally misunderstand the contexts of each. Ireland suffered by aligning itself with Anglo-Saxon mores in terms of financial regulation, the so called light hand. Greece, Portugal and Spain are all comparatively recently free of dictatorship which brings certain lack of experience in terms of how the then EEC and now EU operates. Arguably Spain and Portugal are learning faster than Greece but in their defence they probably had greater cultural exchange given proximity to the core. Greece has always been somewhat physically isolated from the core along with not speaking one of the more commonly used languages and for many years it was also the only one which wrote with a different alphabet.

Brexit is a selfish choice which leaves neither side better off. Even in the worst of the financial crisis, Greece continues to prefer membership to not membership. It is worth noting btw that Tsipras in Greece has demonstrated remarkable political survival in a country not always known for political stability, and that in the face of continuing economic change.

Could Brexit have been handled better by the UK government? In practical negotiating terms yes, in political terms, almost certainly not. There is a fundamental lack of civic knowledge within the UK, even around its own constitution, along with its media environment, epitomised by Up EURs tyoe headlines, that pretty much excluded the presentation of a rational approach. It is very sad but not totally surprising when you look a) at that media environment b) at the divisions in their education system and how that has been messed around and c) at the current cohort of political leadership across the benches. There is none.

I have long been of the opinion that this goes hand in hand with UK monolingualism. Reporting around - fir example - the last French presidential election was borderline insane, even in the broadsheets. So the UK, for understanding what is happening outside the English language bubble, is ill equipped. This enables things like the outcome of Salzburg to be...spun, for want of a better word. No PM is ever going to admit to screwing up but then, although Cameron's humming on resigning was close, but an ability to see all sides without using the prism of a subset of EU media, might well keep them more accountable.

But, we are where we are. And the UK still wants everything to remain the same except no nasty foreigners (on which their economy and elements of their health service depend) and no sharing of the cost of running the infrastructure that has allowed them to prosper within the EU. All the benefits, none of the sacrifices. It is like thinking you can be a concert pianist without ever practising.

Bravo - excellent post sir

Infini

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Corbyn suppprting a second referendum opens up an alternative outcome at the 11th hour just as crash out looked a certainty. You can fight an election on that allied to the #forthemanynotthefew

And you can pin the Conservatives down by making it your Brexit policy.

This is possibly the game changer now. Corbyn still says he isn't calling for a 2nd referendum he's just willing to support one if his party votes at their conference to do so but this is almost certain to happen at this stage as call's have been growing for a Final Say over this especially from both labour supporters and their union backers. Regardless of his personal view's I think he knows that if the party want's this he cant be seen to block it if he wants into no10. It's a blatent own goal for the conservatives and he knows if he plays it fight its an easy win.

We can only wait and see but if Labour turns around and (finally) demands a 2nd referendum we might finally see some sort of real end to this whole farce instead of a crash-out. The conservatives have been badly damaged by this whole Brexit fiasco it was all their party who created this and are most certainly out of power for a long time after this. This doesn't mean for certain if a 2nd referendum were held that it would be a guaranteed vote to remain but I think after all that's happened the British People might cop on enough to realize they were scammed, sold a pack of lies and those who advocated for this cheated in the 1st vote and had absolutely no plans bar crashing the country.

There's no hope of a deal simply because May and co are incapable of compromising and the EU cannot compromise on core tenents of the single market. So that only leave a 2nd ref to remain or crashout and it's well documented what a crashout entails and those who advocated it are utter liars and decievers.

judeboy101

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Might be a mad idea, but if it becomes certain that a no deal Brexit is the outcome

Ireland has one way of turning this Brexit clusterf&*k to our advantage, extend the option to become Irish Citizens to the rest of UK...

let me explain:

This would allow the youngest and brightest (who coincidentally are strongly pro Remain) to retain their EU passports and come here to Ireland and start businesses etc.

Basically use Brexit to brain drain the UK, the leavers wont come for nationalistic reasons...
Maybe tie this to whoever with UK passport can show they paid taxes here for a couple of years to prevent welfare migration.

That's some Hank Scorpio 11-D chess thinking. So crazy it just might work :-)

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Might be a mad idea, but if it becomes certain that a no deal Brexit is the outcome

Ireland has one way of turning this Brexit clusterf&*k to our advantage, extend the option to become Irish Citizens to the rest of UK...

let me explain:

This would allow the youngest and brightest (who coincidentally are strongly pro Remain) to retain their EU passports and come here to Ireland and start businesses etc.

Basically use Brexit to brain drain the UK, the leavers wont come for nationalistic reasons...
Maybe tie this to whoever with UK passport can show they paid taxes here for a couple of years to prevent welfare migration.

I think that your reasoning is based on very simplistic and incorrect assumptions.

The UK is a nation of over 60 million people. If even one in twenty availed of this, that would be an influx of 3 million, nearly doubling Ireland's population. Ireland already has a housing crisis which doesn't need to be exacerbated. In addition, Dublin's infrastructure is nowhere near good enough to poach the sort of businesses and agencies the government was hoping to lure over.

People voted Remain and Leave for all sorts of reasons. There are reluctant remainers and left wing leavers for example which is why I would believe that any influx would be slow, less than you might think but still highly disruptive in the short term to Ireland's economy which would increase the risk of populists attaining power not least because of negative publicity around benefits.

It's a nice idea but I can't see it working on any level and that's before the EU get involved.

Igotadose

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think that your reasoning is based on very simplistic and incorrect assumptions.

The UK is a nation of over 60 million people. If even one in twenty availed of this, that would be an influx of 3 million, nearly doubling Ireland's population. Ireland already has a housing crisis which doesn't need to be exacerbated. In addition, Dublin's infrastructure is nowhere near good enough to poach the sort of businesses and agencies the government was hoping to lure over.

People voted Remain and Leave for all sorts of reasons. There are reluctant remainers and left wing leavers for example which is why I would believe that any influx would be slow, less than you might think but still highly disruptive in the short term to Ireland's economy which would increase the risk of populists attaining power not least because of negative publicity around benefits.

It's a nice idea but I can't see it working on any level and that's before the EU get involved.

Hrm, 17 million or so voted to Remain, I think that's the max. Even so, I can see corp recruiting pushing hard post-Brexit when life starts getting uncomfortable for the most mobile & employable. The US might also be getting in on it, too, though they're not as close as Ireland, they can offer a lot (of course, if Trumpy messes with the H1B program which he's occasionally spittled about, that might change. His donors don't want that though.)

Still, I expect we'll see an emigration spike post-Brexit from the UK to everywhere, when people's wallets start taking a hit, they'll vote with their feet.

Calina

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Alright maybe then the EU-27 can offer this deal, I doubt many would come for a variety of reasons, but it would give those with most skills and education and option to help the economies of Europe grow instead of remaining (ha!) trapped on a sinking ship.

Keep in mind the EU allowed in millions of refugees, why would they have an issue with few hundred thousand young bright people who were EU citizens already.

You seem to think that this is some sort of unique idea but Guy Verhofstadt who is the EP’s Brexit rep has been working on an idea for European citizenship for UK citizens who wish to retain it for about two years now. In other words, the EU has been there and is carefully looking at that.

strandroad

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Alright maybe then the EU-27 can offer this deal, I doubt many would come for a variety of reasons, but it would give those with most skills and education and option to help the economies of Europe grow instead of remaining (ha!) trapped on a sinking ship.

Keep in mind the EU allowed in millions of refugees, why would they have an issue with few hundred thousand young bright people who were EU citizens already.

As added bonus it would bugger the UK economy (depending on how many leave) and send a clear message to any other states wanting to leave that not all their people might want to be prisoners to madness

win win win all around

There's nothing stopping Britons from moving to EU27 today. What could help is to ensure that if they subsequently want to settle and gain citizenship, their EU background will be recognised (even though technically they would be third country by then). There is probably an EU programme for that somewhere.

Calina

Igotadose wrote: »

Hrm, 17 million or so voted to Remain, I think that's the max. Even so, I can see corp recruiting pushing hard post-Brexit when life starts getting uncomfortable for the most mobile & employable. The US might also be getting in on it, too, though they're not as close as Ireland, they can offer a lot (of course, if Trumpy messes with the H1B program which he's occasionally spittled about, that might change. His donors don't want that though.)

Still, I expect we'll see an emigration spike post-Brexit from the UK to everywhere, when people's wallets start taking a hit, they'll vote with their feet.

One of the reasons the UK is where it is is that a large cohort has been unwilling to move to where the work is, particularly the less well educated cohort. They are unlikely to change unless things get really desperate. The better educated will still move but more likely to target EN speaking countries I suspect.

20silkcut

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Alright maybe then the EU-27 can offer this deal, I doubt many would come for a variety of reasons, but it would give those with most skills and education and option to help the economies of Europe grow instead of remaining (ha!) trapped on a sinking ship.

Keep in mind the EU allowed in millions of refugees, why would they have an issue with few hundred thousand young bright people who were EU citizens already.

As added bonus it would bugger the UK economy (depending on how many leave) and send a clear message to any other states wanting to leave that not all their people might want to be prisoners to madness

win win win all around

It’s incredible that such an idea is being mooted at all when you consider the infrastructural advantages the UK has over us and it’s location in the core of Europe and it’s transport links to Europe.
Really underlines the madness of brexit.
It’s essentially like someone giving up a good job living in the most desirable area of Dublin city upping sticks and going on the road in an ould battered camper van to ‘take back control’ and deal with whoever they want. It is the ultimate collective mid life crisis.
I suppose generations of brits have given up everything in their own country to live in far flung corners of the west of Ireland etc.
Is brexit a collective expression of that mentality

trellheim

Ireland could have attracted more relocation from the UK if our infrastructure wasn’t so absolutely hopeless ....

Sassygirl1999

trellheim wrote: »

Ireland could have attracted more relocation from the UK if our infrastructure wasn’t so absolutely hopeless ....

I think we already punch above our weight on FDI

Leroy42

So what do people think will actually happen with Brexit given the last few days/months?

TM has effectively thrown everything behind Chequers (Chequers or nothing) yet it is almost guaranteed that the EU, and her own parliament will never go with it (there is the possibility that either of both may yet accept it as the lessor of two evils and it seems that is what she is banking on).
The EU seems to be sticking by it position, and this there seems little chance of a deal.
But, the EU has a history as making deals at the last minute. The EU is built on compromise, though of course that is usually a compromise that they hope will lead to benefits in the future.
Will TM last (I think she will stay until the Brexit date at least).
Will Ireland manage to hold the government together through the next 6 months when things are likely to get really stressed?

Since Corbyn has said that, the chances of a second referendum seem high?

Water John

Yes, having the 2nd Ref is one question, the second is what is on the ballot paper?
McCluskey says it can't be a rerun, eg remain or leave.
What text? Will it be Corbyn's remain in CU versus leave altogether.? Remain as is may not be on the ballot paper. Basically Soft Brexit V Hard Brexit.

What this LB conference decides will be the major focus over this week.

Inquitus

Water John wrote: »

Yes, having the 2nd Ref is one question, the second is what is on the ballot paper?
McCluskey says it can't be a rerun, eg remain or leave.
What text? Will it be Corbyn's remain in CU versus leave altogether.? Remain as is may not be on the ballot paper. Basically Soft Brexit V Hard Brexit.

What this LB conference decides will be the major focus over this week.

That would be his preference, but I think the Unions / Membership will want remain on the ballot, so that should become the default labour position after the conference.

Infini

Water John wrote: »

Yes, having the 2nd Ref is one question, the second is what is on the ballot paper?
McCluskey says it can't be a rerun, eg remain or leave.
What text? Will it be Corbyn's remain in CU versus leave altogether.? Remain as is may not be on the ballot paper. Basically Soft Brexit V Hard Brexit.

What this LB conference decides will be the major focus over this week.

Bluntly I think at this stage it WILL have to be more or less a rerun of the 1st referendum though possibly with a 3rd choice of moving to the EEA. That being said event's could realistically mean there wont be enough time it could basically amount to Brexit or Abort and hammer the conservative's for basically burning bridges, wasting time and destroying options.

I think at this stage should the wheels of a 2nd referendum start turning it's will be a binary choice and this is what the brexiteer's are afraid of. The 1st remain campaign was too negative and the leave campaign cheated. They won on lies and wasted 2 years arguing the same arguments over and over and got nothing. Now theres an economic gun pointed at the UK Economy because the EU cannot compromise on its core tenants and the UK refuses to compromise its own own unreasonable choices because of the conservatives. There's more than enough ammo now to hammer the Brexiteer's both as lying trolls and time wasters and at the same time get the message out that being part of the EU has it's advantages (ie. drive home the point the single market the brexiteers want to leave is in fact a BRITISH concept and idea).

Infini

Deleted User wrote: »

Since Corbyn has said that, the chances of a second referendum seem high?

If the party conference vote's in favour of a 2nd referendum its a near certainty. Considering the remaining time and such the only one's who might derail this is the conservatives BUT to be blunt this would essentially be Parliment's OUT for this whole toxic subject. Remainer leaning conservative's wont let the oppertunity to go to the people slip by because the brexitards cant deny the people another vote without themselves going against the will of the people. It's near certain that at this point barring a miracle in negotiations it's going to be a Hard Brexit if this course continues.

However if a 2nd referendum not only get's voted in favour of at Labour's conference it's near certain to happen as it's going to be the only chance the UK has of escaping this fiasco before time runs out. The EU will likely be more than amendable to an A50 extension if needs be by a month or 2 to allow a referendum to take place and would probably be more than willing to allow the cancellation of A50 in the event of a remain victory simply because it's ultimately not worth losing the UK in the long run no matter how stupid their current leadership are right now.

Capt'n Midnight

Calina wrote: »

You seem to think that this is some sort of unique idea but Guy Verhofstadt who is the EP’s Brexit rep has been working on an idea for European citizenship for UK citizens who wish to retain it for about two years now. In other words, the EU has been there and is carefully looking at that.

That means about 6.7 million people in the UK who don't already have an Irish passport who could be entitled to one. Guess we won't be getting a postal vote for those abroad anytime soon.

UK Citizens can still continue to travel and reside here and after five years could apply for citizenship, three years if married to an Irish citizen.

A key point is that they can retain dual citizenship.

Kermit.de.frog

Dominic Raab wrote a large segment on Brexit today for one of the UK's main papers.

Apparently Ireland is not mentioned once.

How is that even possible in the context of the current impasse!?

kowtow

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Great stuff

Brexiteers have used freedom of movement (a core EU principle) as a wedge to force their anti-liberal backwards agenda(s)

The EU can do the same to offer the best and brightest in UK an option to leave/work in EU as before (if they want of course) and more importantly making any other state (Hungary, Denmark, Poland?) think twice about leaving as there would be a cost associated with it (brain drain)

Yes those people can leave right now, but why would they? they UK is still in EU and they might be clinging onto the hope (and/or fighting for Remain) the madness will be averted.

The EU should not leave its citizens behind against their will on a sinking ship and should offer hope/window of opportunity, especially if there is a hard brexit and it turns into a bad economic recession.

Like I said its a win, win, win all around, except for those who want to go backwards. Let those rot in their own cesspool.

Not easy to sell though... higher taxes, higher cost of living, more rain.

The first quote for car insurance would send a lot of them scuttling.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Dominic Raab wrote a large segment on Brexit today for one of the UK's main papers.

Apparently Ireland is not mentioned once.

How is that even possible in the context of the current impasse!?

They won't want to mention Ireland because they're afraid of the subject I would imagine.

Infini

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/british-pm-theresa-planning-snap-election-november-180923052959623.html

This came up on the google news feed. Snap GE being planned for November in the UK.

judeboy101

Infini wrote: »

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/british-pm-theresa-planning-snap-election-november-180923052959623.html

This came up on the google news feed. Snap GE being planned for November in the UK.

Landslide for labour and/labour minority with snp support, cast iron backstop (i .e Ni in cu and Sm) , Norway + and 2nd ref.

Infini

judeboy101 wrote: »

Landslide for labour and/labour minority with snp support, cast iron backstop (i .e Ni in cu and Sm) , Norway + and 2nd ref.

Most likely. First order of business in a Labour government: Get rekt DUP.

Inquitus

Good cartoon in today's Sunday times. How she can persist with a proposal she can't get through her own Parliament, and one that the EU has clearly said is unacceptable since the get go, I do not know.

An Ciarraioch

Still trying to figure out exactly what FF would do different in the Brexit negotiations - Chambers was on the radio today stressing the importance of exports to the UK, but the first 12 months were spent trying to convince them to remain in the Customs Union, so unless there's a dramatic u-turn in the next few weeks, there's nothing we can do about trade with GB, at any rate. Then she was complaining that the backstop hadn't been delivered yet, but unless and until the British provide legal text for their version, even an eleventh hour fudge to keep the border open would be impossible.

judeboy101

Infini wrote: »

Most likely. First order of business in a Labour government: Get rekt DUP.

I can see Corby pushing same sex marriage and abortion into ni by Xmas. Imagine Nigel dobbs face lol.

Kermit.de.frog

The election talk may be the fact May knows having the DUP there is not tenable for an agreement.

An election is quickest way to get rid of them and follow through on December's agreement.