Brexit discussion thread IV

flatty

What a hobsons choice for the working British Middle class tax payers who voted largely to remain. Corbyn and Norway or teresa and hard brexit.

flatty

Can anyone genuinely explain why politicians across the board are paddling like fcuk to avoid another referendum especially given that they know the first was run in ignorance and on fraud?
What is going on that we can't see??

Water John

No doubt Corbyn sees his vision being limited by actually fully remaining. His drive to renationalise, worker ownership and state aid are his core principles.
The question now seems to be, does it really?

revelman

flatty wrote: »

Can anyone genuinely explain why politicians across the board are paddling like fcuk to avoid another referendum especially given that they know the first was run in ignorance and on fraud?
What is going on that we can't see??

Precisely because who in a democracy is to determine the definition of and the level of 'ignorance and fraud' that needs to be present in order to rerun a referendum or any democratic decision.

Rhineshark

flatty wrote: »

Can anyone genuinely explain why politicians across the board are paddling like fcuk to avoid another referendum especially given that they know the first was run in ignorance and on fraud?
What is going on that we can't see??

Fear, gaslighting, genuine concern that it's anti-democratic (see "gaslighting"), ideology from both far left and far right, some with money to make or opportunities that, whether factually or not, they don't see possible within the EU.

I assume anyway. God knows they are on a hiding to nothing at the moment.

Inquitus

flatty wrote: »

Can anyone genuinely explain why politicians across the board are paddling like fcuk to avoid another referendum especially given that they know the first was run in ignorance and on fraud?
What is going on that we can't see??

Because the Tories are effectively a party of Leavers, and they don't want to jeopardise their Holy Grail with a rerun, that and they value Party over Country. Labour is more complicated, but Corbyn and co want to nationalise big chunks of UK industry that Thatcher privatised, this socialist wet dream is at odds with European rules on State Aid. Corbyn's hand however is being forced by a majority of Labour's membership slowly coming round to a remain viewpoint, hence the backing down on whether there should be another referendum, and instead trying to keep a remain option off the ballot, to preserve so called wet dream.

Enzokk

Inquitus wrote: »

Because the Tories are effectively a party of Leavers, and they don't want to jeopardise their Holy Grail with a rerun, that and they value Party over Country. Labour is more complicated, but Corbyn and co want to nationalise big chunks of UK industry that Thatcher privatised, this socialist wet dream is at odds with European rules on State Aid. Corbyn's hand however is being forced by a majority of Labour's membership slowly coming round to a remain viewpoint, hence the backing down on whether there should be another referendum, and instead trying to keep a remain option off the ballot, to preserve so called wet dream.

And yet there are opinions that this isn't true. It seems that John McDonnell recognized that as well at the conference. France has many state run companies bidding for contracts in other countries. So has Germany. There seems to be ways to have state run industries without running foul of EU rules, it has just been decided by the UK not to allow this in the UK and to allow the private sector more access to those industries.

LET’S BE CLEAR, NATIONALISATION IS NOT AGAINST EU LAW

Leroy42

Inquitus wrote: »

Because the Tories are effectively a party of Leavers, and they don't want to jeopardise their Holy Grail with a rerun, that and they value Party over Country.

This. They have been against the EU from the very start and now the breakaway is within their grasp. They are not going to let it go based on some short term problems.

As JRM stated, the outcome of Brexit may not been known for 50 years. This is a long term ideology, problems with TM, the Brexit process etc are simply temporary issues that will eventually be overcome.

J Mysterio

So Starmer has contradicted McDonnell and said 'nobody is ruling out remain'.

Reports Shadow Cabinet now at odds over 'second vote'.

So Tories 'at war', Labour 'at war'....

Water John

Well ESB owns NI electricity having bought it.
I'm not sure what is the situation for renationalising. That may be a crux.

Sam Russell

Is it true that the new Blue passports are being printed by a French nationalised industry?

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is it true that the new Blue passports are being printed by a French nationalised industry?

I'm afraid so though Gemalto is not state owned.

revelman

The UK government has just published more guidance on a no-deal scenario. It makes for fascinating reading, particularly looking at the range of areas affected.

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm afraid so though Gemalto is not state owned.

My mistake - though I did remember that a French company had to produce French passports for 'security' reasons.

Nody

revelman wrote: »

The UK government has just published more guidance on a no-deal scenario. It makes for fascinating reading, particularly looking at the range of areas affected.

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal

Lots of fun stuff in there including a lot of "We expect EU to grant the same deal we give to EU countries" and lovely lines such as "We'll negotiate with individual countries in EU if needed" on things such as Airline certification (which is an EU capability and individual countries can't do anything about; seriously how bad are these people writing this stuff?).

Kermit.de.frog

UK proposal to hand veto to Stormont is not acceptable to Ireland or the EU and will be shot down immediately according to EU diplomats quoted in the Guardian.

They are accusing the Tories of trying to delay.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

My mistake - though I did remember that a French company had to produce French passports for 'security' reasons.

Basically, the sort of protectionism the UK could have been really effective in combating it will now fall victim to.

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK proposal to hand veto to Stormont is not acceptable to Ireland or the EU and will be shot down immediately according to EU diplomats quoted in the Guardian.

But it wasnt acceptable to give a Veto to NI on Brexit when they voted to remain.......

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK proposal to hand veto to Stormont is not acceptable to Ireland or the EU and will be shot down immediately according to EU diplomats quoted in the Guardian.

They are accusing the Tories of trying to delay.

It's unlikely to fly considering the UK have allowed the DUP undue influence in the whole affair and since stormont isn't running and there's no sign of it happening anytime soon..... yeah not happening May.

Remember if the DUP hadn't been allowed into the position they were in to begin with the backstop likely would have been agreed without issue because those headbangers would have been told to put up or shut up.

lawred2

Nody wrote: »

Lots of fun stuff in there including a lot of "We expect EU to grant the same deal we give to EU countries" and lovely lines such as "We'll negotiate with individual countries in EU if needed" on things such as Airline certification (which is an EU capability and individual countries can't do anything about; seriously how bad are these people writing this stuff?).

this is getting tedious at this stage

how many times does it need to be stated that unilateral deals on EU pillars or capabilities with EU members are simply not possible?

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

this is getting tedious at this stage

how many times does it need to be stated that unilateral deals on EU pillars or capabilities with EU members are simply not possible?

It's worse than that. They were told on day zero this wouldn't work and they're still at it. I understand that a foreign policy attitude which has been consistent for hundreds of years can be difficult to break but they've had two years and have nothing to show for it IMO.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's worse than that. They were told on day zero this wouldn't work and they're still at it. I understand that a foreign policy attitude which has been consistent for hundreds of years can be difficult to break but they've had two years and have nothing to show for it IMO.

Well that is not quite true.

They now have quite a sizable amount of voters who appear to accept that the whole thing is the EU's fault and a theme running through many Vox Pops is "just get on with it". My theory is that they always knew they were on a loser, and so have engineered this to at least give them a chance of being able to blame everything on the EU.

They needed cover for the Brexit fall-out.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well that is not quite true.

They now have quite a sizable amount of voters who appear to accept that the whole thing is the EU's fault and a theme running through many Vox Pops is "just get on with it". My theory is that they always knew they were on a loser, and so have engineered this to at least give them a chance of being able to blame everything on the EU.

They needed cover for the Brexit fall-out.

I meant progress in the negotiations. A legion of voters who want out at all costs isn't going to answer difficult questions about future prosperity, inequality, investment, employment prospects, etc. It's like fire. It burns but it doesn't do anything more than that. At some point an electorate in a permanent state of anger, anguish and fear is going to do some serious damage beyond voting leave.

The problem with slaying the dragon from Brussels is that it leaves a slew of awkard questions with no obvious scapegoat. Sure, many leavers will be content to continue blaming the EU but I can't see everyone falling for that once Brexit is delivered replete with adequate food and blue passports from France.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1039507689657720832

Not a massive fan of Leo, but got to admire the man for trying to save the arse of the UK. I have seen plenty of the less hardcore leavers say that would be a fair enough compromise and would have support of different elements of both lead parties. However sadly the likes of Mogg etc, would probably say its not Brexit etc. :rolleyes:

Professor Moriarty

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1039507689657720832

Not a massive fan of Leo, but got to admire the man for trying to save the arse of the UK. I have seen plenty of the less hardcore leavers say that would be a fair enough compromise and would have support of different elements of both lead parties. However sadly the likes of Mogg etc, would probably say its not Brexit etc. :rolleyes:

Mogg, Davis and Johnson would be very much against a Norway deal. They'd prefer Chequers to that.

Infini

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1039507689657720832

Not a massive fan of Leo, but got to admire the man for trying to save the arse of the UK. I have seen plenty of the less hardcore leavers say that would be a fair enough compromise and would have support of different elements of both lead parties. However sadly the likes of Mogg etc, would probably say its not Brexit etc. :rolleyes:

To be fair if the shít hit's the proverbial fan down the line they won't be able to turn around and blame Ireland or the EU because they can repeatedly point to all the OUT's from the situation they tried to give the UK but they wouldn't listen.

Good way of saying we told u so.

ancapailldorcha

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1039507689657720832

Not a massive fan of Leo, but got to admire the man for trying to save the arse of the UK. I have seen plenty of the less hardcore leavers say that would be a fair enough compromise and would have support of different elements of both lead parties. However sadly the likes of Mogg etc, would probably say its not Brexit etc. :rolleyes:

It's in Ireland's interests for the UK to avoid crashing out. Sadly, there's only so much Leo can accomplish in this regard.

Inquitus

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1039507689657720832

Not a massive fan of Leo, but got to admire the man for trying to save the arse of the UK. I have seen plenty of the less hardcore leavers say that would be a fair enough compromise and would have support of different elements of both lead parties. However sadly the likes of Mogg etc, would probably say its not Brexit etc. :rolleyes:

That story is from Aug 2017 mind.

First Up

ancapailldorcha wrote:

The problem with slaying the dragon from Brussels is that it leaves a slew of awkard questions with no obvious scapegoat. Sure, many leavers will be content to continue blaming the EU but I can't see everyone falling for that once Brexit is delivered replete with adequate food and blue passports from France.

Nobody in the EU cares who the UK blames. It doesn't matter.

Rjd2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Mogg, Davis and Johnson would be very much against a Norway deal. They'd prefer Chequers to that.

I think Davis is not a fanatic to be fair like Mogg. I don't like Davis, but I do think he could be persuaded to come around to such an option if the will is there for it.

Nicky Morgan wrote an article this week about it from a prominent Tory site and to my untrained eye, she does not seem to be talking bollocks.

Mogg etc will probably say she is a remainer and she is, but to be fair she is offering a compromise here something which the likes of Mogg have no interest in.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/09/nicky-morgan-chequers-is-dead-and-the-only-plan-that-mps-will-now-vote-for-is-norway.html

the most important part of that Morgan article...

As Stephen Hammond made clear over the weekend, EFTA membership “would allow the UK to remain in most parts of the Single Market, but be removed from the more controversial parts of EU membership, such as the pursuit of an ever closer union and the common justice and home affairs policies. It would be a return to the common market principles that Margaret Thatcher advocated when the UK led the creation of the Single Market.” Saying that EFTA/EEA would make us ‘rule takers’ ignores the fact that many of our key business sectors will choose to – or have to if they want to do anything outside the UK – follow the EU’s rules or international rules (which often mirror EU rules or vice versa) anyway.

But the most important calculation for Downing Street now is the parliamentary arithmetic. There is no majority in the Commons for no deal, there is no majority for CETA Mark II, at the moment there is no majority for a second referendum. But there is a majority for EFTA/EEA. It is time for the Government to work out how they get from Friday’s statement to a deal which the Commons will approve. And they don’t have long to do it.