Brexit discussion thread IV

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's worse than that. They were told on day zero this wouldn't work and they're still at it. I understand that a foreign policy attitude which has been consistent for hundreds of years can be difficult to break but they've had two years and have nothing to show for it IMO.

They had a couple of tactics, negotiate with individual nations and divide and conquer. They were quickly rebuffed by EU countries when they were trying to negotiate with them and were told to speak to Barnier. They have also repeatedly tried to divide the EU and May was apparently still at it in Salzburg and it in part why she got the reaction she did.

What is that quote? The definition of stupidity is trying the same thing expecting a different result.

Back to Labour and their divisions, I don't know how accurate this twitter thread is but it is actually interesting on what happened last night.

https://twitter.com/Alewin7/status/1044174113475108864

https://twitter.com/Alewin7/status/1044174114821419008

https://twitter.com/Alewin7/status/1044174116234960896

https://twitter.com/Alewin7/status/1044174117677780992

https://twitter.com/Alewin7/status/1044174118994812928

https://twitter.com/Alewin7/status/1044174120420872192

Junkyard Tom

Nody wrote: »

"We expect EU to grant the same deal we give to EU countries"

They are consistently mistaking being a third country with global power. They think they can demand a reciprocal deal from a much bigger player.

What's wrong with these people?

gandalf

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

They are consistently mistaking being a third country with global power. They think they can demand a reciprocal deal from a much bigger player.

What's wrong with these people?

They are suffering from prolonged Empire withdrawal symptoms....

briany

Rjd2 wrote: »

I think Davis is not a fanatic to be fair like Mogg.

Davis has actually been on the front line of negotiations. He's been out there dealing with the reality of the situation. All Mogg, Johnson and the rest of the Keystone Cops have been doing is lobbing bombs from the back benches, attempting to consolidate power and a cult of personality among their party and the electorate for their inevitable power grab.

Mogg is such a zealot yet whenever he's asked why he's not doing the negotiation, he becomes a shrinking violet, a humble MP who's never wanted anything more than to be faithful servant of North East Somerset.

An Ciarraioch

See on Twitter that Lucid Talk is polling this week on Brexit and the backstop, so should see the results in seven days.

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

Remember that it takes about 12m or more votes to win an election, Labor has about 500 000 members. The SNP has 125 000 and the Conservatives has 124 000. That is why it is very risky to promise to follow the voice of the membership, it may not be the voice you need to win.

The SNP numbers are actually very impressive. They received 1.4m votes in 2015 and just under 1m in 2017. So they have about 10% of their votes as members. Labour received 4% of their votes in 2017 from their members and the Conservatives 0.9%.

Lets all take over the UUP for the craic…

The UUP is extraordinary ripe for an entryist takeover. The UUP has perhaps as few as 600 active members, every one of whom has an equal vote in leadership contests. A well-organised rugby club could swamp our 3rd largest political party in time for its next annual conference.

LOL

Thanks to NI's funny laws about reporting donations a well funded group could have a lot of fun with the next GE or referendum.

Hurrache

Most sensible points on the NI issue I've seen from an MP since Brexit.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1044261233107652608?s=19

J Mysterio

Hurrache wrote: »

Most sensible points on the NI issue I've seen from an MP since Brexit.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1044261233107652608?s=19

Fair play to that fellow.

J Mysterio

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/mays-plan-to-give-stormont-a-backstop-veto-enrages-eu-envoys

May trying a sneaky one here. She is probably privately happy with the backstop but feels she must be publically against it.

Potentially making a call for the NI people to decide is really something though. She basically has no room for manoeuvre, having boxed herself in with her own redlines but - lo and behold - here is a get out of jail/ box free card and an opportunity to frame herself as some sort of Champion of Democracy.

But really this may be looked at as a convenient way out of the NI 'problem' for May. Washing her hands of the issue essentially by saying 'let the people decide'. Start the ball rolling on that and then look to move the conversation on to trade etc. as all is prepared.

It's risky though, depending on what is proposed. Surely it could not be settled by a vote in Stormont. An assembly that can't agree to stay open. An assembly that May has essentially a partisan relationship with and has now brought to disrepute by being beholden to one party there. The backwards, socially regressive party. It could be playing with fire though, and im not sure of the implications RE the GFA for a unilateral call on this.

Stormont liberally can't be tasked with it anyway. Unbelievably, NI now has the world record for a state that has gone the longest time without a government! And anyway, for an issue such as this, in a place like NI, who trusts the politicians to decide? Especially given how they have carried on. So do the public get a vote then? This kind of thing could heighten tensions, it is a really pivotal moment in history here.

This noise could also move the conversation from '2nd referendum' to 'NI decides' though, which may be perceived as another big benefit.

Also... If, as many anticipate, NI is moving inexeroably towards a UI, NI (as part of UK) voting to remain in the EU might be the only thing to significantly delay it. If NI crash out of Europe with the UK, they will very quickly favour a UI.

An Ciarraioch

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/mays-plan-to-give-stormont-a-backstop-veto-enrages-eu-envoys

May trying a sneaky one here. She is probably privately happy with the backstop but feels she must be publically against it.

Making a call for the NI people to decide is really something though. She basically had no room for manoeuvre, having boxed herself in with her own redlines but - lo and behold - here is a get out of jail/ box free card and an opportunity to frame herself as some sort of Champion of Democracy.

But really this may be looked at as a convenient way out of the NI 'problem' for May. Washing her hands of the issue essentially by saying 'let the people decide'. Start the ball rolling on that and then look to move the conversation on to trade etc. as all is prepared.

It's risky though, depending on what is proposed. Surely it could not be settled by a vote in Stormont. An assembly that can't agree to stay open. An assembly that May has essentially a partisan relationship with and has now brought to disrepute by being beholden to one party there. The backwards, socially regressive party. It could be playing with fire though, and im not sure of the implications RE the GFA for a unilateral call on this.

Stormont liberally can't be tasked with it anyway. Unbelievably, NI now has the world record for a state that has gone the longest time without a government! And anyway, for an issue such as this, in a place like NI, who trusts the politicians to decide? Especially given how they have carried on. So do the public get a vote then? This kind of thing could heighten tensions, it is a really pivotal moment in history here.

This noise could also move the conversation from '2nd referendum' to 'NI decides' though, which may be perceived as another big benefit.

Also... If, as many anticipate, NI is moving inexeroably towards a UI, NI (as part of UK) voting to remain in the EU might be the only thing to significantly delay it. If NI crash out of Europe with the UK, they will very quickly favour a UI.

And as the article states, the vote would take place at the end of the transition period - whole UK in Chequers scenario during that period seems the gamble?

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And as the article states, the vote would take place at the end of the transition period - whole UK in Chequers scenario during that period seems the gamble?

Yeah, I guess I mean it seems a desperate last throw of the dice. It could potentially be positioned to move the conversation away from Chequers or to downplay the signifigance of the deal being configured in that way, as the fundamentals change. But a somewhat wild and desperate suggestion (i'm aware I'm rambling on this myself).

Who knows what other madcaps ideas will be floated over the conference? You just need a few MPs to get excited and we're off again!

briany

Hurrache wrote: »

Most sensible points on the NI issue I've seen from an MP since Brexit.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1044261233107652608?s=19

Pound on the money!

badtoro

Enzokk wrote: »

Inquitus wrote: »

Because the Tories are effectively a party of Leavers, and they don't want to jeopardise their Holy Grail with a rerun, that and they value Party over Country. Labour is more complicated, but Corbyn and co want to nationalise big chunks of UK industry that Thatcher privatised, this socialist wet dream is at odds with European rules on State Aid. Corbyn's hand however is being forced by a majority of Labour's membership slowly coming round to a remain viewpoint, hence the backing down on whether there should be another referendum, and instead trying to keep a remain option off the ballot, to preserve so called wet dream.

And yet there are opinions that this isn't true. It seems that John McDonnell recognized that as well at the conference. France has many state run companies bidding for contracts in other countries. So has Germany. There seems to be ways to have state run industries without running foul of EU rules, it has just been decided by the UK not to allow this in the UK and to allow the private sector more access to those industries.

LET’S BE CLEAR, NATIONALISATION IS NOT AGAINST EU LAW

This sort of thing comes up a lot, usually along the lines of "Well The Netherlands/Denmark/Germany/France seem to ignore EU regulations they don't like..."

And here comes the kicker...

"but our lot gold plate everything."

Solution = leave EU, give sole total control to gold platers.

Really? I mean, are they members of a different union to us? Because it sure seems like it when you get talking to British people.

Imreoir2

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/mays-plan-to-give-stormont-a-backstop-veto-enrages-eu-envoys

May trying a sneaky one here. She is probably privately happy with the backstop but feels she must be publically against it.

Potentially making a call for the NI people to decide is really something though. She basically has no room for manoeuvre, having boxed herself in with her own redlines but - lo and behold - here is a get out of jail/ box free card and an opportunity to frame herself as some sort of Champion of Democracy.

But really this may be looked at as a convenient way out of the NI 'problem' for May. Washing her hands of the issue essentially by saying 'let the people decide'. Start the ball rolling on that and then look to move the conversation on to trade etc. as all is prepared.

It's risky though, depending on what is proposed. Surely it could not be settled by a vote in Stormont. An assembly that can't agree to stay open. An assembly that May has essentially a partisan relationship with and has now brought to disrepute by being beholden to one party there. The backwards, socially regressive party. It could be playing with fire though, and im not sure of the implications RE the GFA for a unilateral call on this.

Stormont liberally can't be tasked with it anyway. Unbelievably, NI now has the world record for a state that has gone the longest time without a government! And anyway, for an issue such as this, in a place like NI, who trusts the politicians to decide? Especially given how they have carried on. So do the public get a vote then? This kind of thing could heighten tensions, it is a really pivotal moment in history here.

This noise could also move the conversation from '2nd referendum' to 'NI decides' though, which may be perceived as another big benefit.

Also... If, as many anticipate, NI is moving inexeroably towards a UI, NI (as part of UK) voting to remain in the EU might be the only thing to significantly delay it. If NI crash out of Europe with the UK, they will very quickly favour a UI.

I think the proposal is that the UK will agree the backstop now on the condition that should it be needed at some later date, Stormont will be able to accept or reject the implementation of the backstop at that later date. If the EU and UK fail to agree a future tradeing relationship, requireing the backstop to be activated say in 2021, then Stormount would need to vote to accept the backstop being activated at that time for it to take effect.

It's a sly atempt to agree the backstop now while still giving the DUP an effective veto over the backstop at the same time. It obviously won't fly, but putting forward the principle that the UK government could accept the backstop if it is accepted by the people of NI might be a move towords having a referendum on the backstop in NI before the end of the year.

J Mysterio

Theresa May calls for immigration based on skills and wealth

One thing that stuck out for me in Tories plan for new Immigration system is their desire to avoid any preferential treatment, but particularly to EU citizens.

Its gone a bit mad though. Why not prefer EU citizens? We are yiur neighbours etc. You holiday here, love the culture and buy the wine and cheese. A few Romanians go to the UK and they lose it. What about all the Spanish, French, Dutch, Germans etc.? It's just very bad vibes and hard to comprehend. 10,000 immigrants a year!

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/mays-plan-to-give-stormont-a-backstop-veto-enrages-eu-envoys

May trying a sneaky one here. She is probably privately happy with the backstop but feels she must be publically against it.

Potentially making a call for the NI people to decide is really something though. She basically has no room for manoeuvre, having boxed herself in with her own redlines but - lo and behold - here is a get out of jail/ box free card and an opportunity to frame herself as some sort of Champion of Democracy.

But really this may be looked at as a convenient way out of the NI 'problem' for May. Washing her hands of the issue essentially by saying 'let the people decide'. Start the ball rolling on that and then look to move the conversation on to trade etc. as all is prepared.

It's risky though, depending on what is proposed. Surely it could not be settled by a vote in Stormont. An assembly that can't agree to stay open. An assembly that May has essentially a partisan relationship with and has now brought to disrepute by being beholden to one party there. The backwards, socially regressive party. It could be playing with fire though, and im not sure of the implications RE the GFA for a unilateral call on this.

Stormont liberally can't be tasked with it anyway. Unbelievably, NI now has the world record for a state that has gone the longest time without a government! And anyway, for an issue such as this, in a place like NI, who trusts the politicians to decide? Especially given how they have carried on. So do the public get a vote then? This kind of thing could heighten tensions, it is a really pivotal moment in history here.

This noise could also move the conversation from '2nd referendum' to 'NI decides' though, which may be perceived as another big benefit.

Also... If, as many anticipate, NI is moving inexeroably towards a UI, NI (as part of UK) voting to remain in the EU might be the only thing to significantly delay it. If NI crash out of Europe with the UK, they will very quickly favour a UI.

Seems as though she is trying everything she can to last another week. It all seems very desperate. I found this quote of interest in the article,

The row over Stormont has added to the tense nature of the talks on Northern Ireland, with EU officials further claiming that the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, had stopped engaging on the subject.

So it is the fingers in the ears stage of the negotiations?

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think the proposal is that the UK will agree the backstop now on the condition that should it be needed at some later date, Stormont will be able to accept or reject the implementation of the backstop at that later date. If the EU and UK fail to agree a future tradeing relationship, requireing the backstop to be activated say in 2021, then Stormount would need to vote to accept the backstop being activated at that time for it to take effect.

It's a sly atempt to agree the backstop now while still giving the DUP an effective veto over the backstop at the same time. It obviously won't fly, but putting forward the principle that the UK government could accept the backstop if it is accepted by the people of NI might be a move towords having a referendum on the backstop in NI before the end of the year.

One way or the other she seems fatalistically determined to set Ireland on fire.

Franz Von Peppercorn

J Mysterio wrote: »

Theresa May calls for immigration based on skills and wealth

One thing that stuck out for me in Tories plan for new Immigration system is their desire to avoid any preferential treatment, but particularly to EU citizens.

Its gone a bit mad though. Why not prefer EU citizens? We are yiur neighbours etc. You holiday here, love the culture and buy the wine and cheese. A few Romanians go to the UK and they lose it. What about all the Spanish, French, Dutch, Germans etc.? It's just very bad vibes and hard to comprehend. 10,000 immigrants a year!

Don’t think there’s going to be much demand to migrate to a post Brexit Britain. The flow might be the other way.

J Mysterio

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think the proposal is that the UK will agree the backstop now on the condition that should it be needed at some later date, Stormont will be able to accept or reject the implementation of the backstop at that later date. If the EU and UK fail to agree a future tradeing relationship, requireing the backstop to be activated say in 2021, then Stormount would need to vote to accept the backstop being activated at that time for it to take effect.

It's a sly atempt to agree the backstop now while still giving the DUP an effective veto over the backstop at the same time. It obviously won't fly, but putting forward the principle that the UK government could accept the backstop if it is accepted by the people of NI might be a move towords having a referendum on the backstop in NI before the end of the year.

Agree on all points.

The thing is that at the moment, the 'backstop' in March 2019 is positioned as the De Facto reality, as there are no alternatives.

This is the one way to agree to a backstop and then absolve yourself of responsibility for it.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1039507689657720832

Not a massive fan of Leo, but got to admire the man for trying to save the arse of the UK. I have seen plenty of the less hardcore leavers say that would be a fair enough compromise and would have support of different elements of both lead parties. However sadly the likes of Mogg etc, would probably say its not Brexit etc. :rolleyes:

There’s a few hard right people who were leavers for years - Christopher Brooker, Peter Hitchens etc. who now say that the whole thing could be a catastrophe unless the Norway option is followed. Then there’s Boris Johnson and that rabble. Latest fairy story is a report from the ultra capitalist IEA about how Britain will be successful by **** drumroll **** a bonfire of regulations.

For Forks Sake

Hurrache wrote: »

Most sensible points on the NI issue I've seen from an MP since Brexit.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1044261233107652608?s=19

At this stage, it's almost peculiar to see a British politician (of any hue) who has a command of their brief.

Imreoir2

For Forks Sake wrote: »

At this stage, it's almost peculiar to see a British politician (of any hue) who has a command of their brief.

It was surreal to listen to a British politition and not want to hurl things at them after a few words.

Kermit.de.frog

This is how I think of Brexit.



They want half in, half out. EU is never going to accept special dispensation for the UK.

That's a simple fact and I don't understand why they are so surprised.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Theresa May calls for immigration based on skills and wealth

One thing that stuck out for me in Tories plan for new Immigration system is their desire to avoid any preferential treatment, but particularly to EU citizens.

Its gone a bit mad though. Why not prefer EU citizens? We are yiur neighbours etc. You holiday here, love the culture and buy the wine and cheese. A few Romanians go to the UK and they lose it. What about all the Spanish, French, Dutch, Germans etc.? It's just very bad vibes and hard to comprehend. 10,000 immigrants a year!

Another interesting article that has little tidbits that we can digest. Here is a couple I have found. Firstly the report is done by the Migration Advisory Committee which was set up by the government to help them set out their immigration strategy. You could ask a reasonable question on how much they will help to guide policy against providing evidence to assist the government to sell their policy.

Case in point, EEA immigration does not hurt wages and contributes £2300 more to public finances than UK workers per year. We have had much the same links on how EU immigration doesn't hurt the UK and in fact the skilled non-EEA immigration actually costs the taxpayer more as you would most likely have people that are looking to settle in the UK and bring their families over. The interesting quote that raises alarms for me to show this is this,

However, a Whitehall source said: “Whilst the MAC report said that low-skilled immigration doesn’t really add anything to the economy, Sajid recognises that for certain types of businesses, including hospitality and social care, you do need that labour flow coming in.

“So it’s about necessity and what the economy requires, but with an absolute guarantee of ending freedom of movement and not having the preferential system.”

I wish they would expand on what they mean when they say low-skilled workers doesn't really add to the economy, but my guess is this is done on purpose. We can speculate to what ends.

The other interesting tidbit is in the above quote, they will end free movement of people. They are once again ruling out single market membership. Is it any wonder the EU decided to turn on May when she repeatedly shuts the door in their faces on finding solutions only to want to cherry pick what she wants. She wants no free movement but she wants no borders. Remember she cannot sign up to a border between NI and the UK. She was quite forceful when she said this so that means no single market for NI and a border.

In regards to their plans, it seems reasonable when you consider that they plan to favour countries that has trade deals with the UK. The EU could enjoy very favourable treatment for their citizens that want to work in the UK, if they sign a very favourable deal with the UK.

Also in the article we have this,

Ministers are waiting for the EU to come back with its detailed counter-proposals to the Chequers plan in mid-October before deciding what do to next, despite an energetic “chuck Chequers” campaign being fronted by Boris Johnson, David Davis and Jacob-Rees Mogg.

Yes, after Salzburg the UK is still waiting for the EU to respond with counter-proposals to Chequers. I repeat, after Tusk confirmed that Chequers is a non-starter the UK is still waiting for some counter-proposals. This despite objection to the deal in the UK itself.

Rjd2

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

There’s a few hard right people who were leavers for years - Christopher Brooker, Peter Hitchens etc. who now say that the whole thing could be a catastrophe unless the Norway option is followed. Then there’s Boris Johnson and that rabble. Latest fairy story is a report from the ultra capitalist IEA about how Britain will be successful by **** drumroll **** a bonfire of regulations.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6197645/PETER-HITCHENS-Norway-escape-PM-begging-Brussels.html

Hitch had an article in the mail on sunday which backed remain and aye said that. If I were a leaver, I'd take his word over the likes of Mogg.

The thing what May needs to remember now even though plenty in her party voted leave, they are not extremists, people like Raab, Gove, Cleverly etc would be open to a Norway type deal.

The hardcore element such as Mogg, Redwood while they make a lot of noise they are relatively small number wise.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, after Salzburg the UK is still waiting for the EU to respond with counter-proposals to Chequers.

It's party conference season. They won't do any more real talking until the conference is over.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It's party conference season. They won't do any more real talking until the conference is over.

The Tory conference wraps up on 3 October. The European Council that has to find "sufficient progress" is on 18 October.

It's going to be a busy fortnight.

(Much is of course going on behind the scenes, and most of what happens between 3 and 18 October will also happen behind the scenes.)

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

The European Council that has to find "sufficient progress" is on 18 October.

I think May will have glommed onto the proposed November summit as the real real deadline.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think May will have glommed onto the proposed November summit as the real real deadline.

Yes, but the current EU line is that there won't be a November summit unless there is sufficient progress at the October summit. As of right now, no November summit is scheduled. To quote President Tusk:

"The moment of truth for Brexit negotiations will be the October European Council. In October we expect maximum progress and results in the Brexit talks. Then we will decide whether conditions are there to call an extraordinary summit in November to finalise and formalise the deal."

And this, of course, is the EU's response to May telling Varadkar, to general surprise and consternation, that she wouldn't have her backstop proposals, the ones she has been promising since June, if not since March, ready by the October summit. Yes, Teresa, you will.

Angry bird

Delay and procrastinate, this is what the Tories are interested in. They cannot deliver on the promises Brexit so they're angling for a no deal, blame the EU and pick up the pieces from there. To actually make a decision would rip the party in half. And as we see, Labour are not much different. Tail wagging the dog is how they view Ireland and that darn border.