Brexit discussion thread IV

LeinsterDub

Water John wrote: »

Barnier also was positive saying, 80% had been agreed. Glass more than half full type of encouragement.
Both sides know further compromise is now necessary. Anyone in the UK who believes that Chequers deal is the end, is a fool and not a realist.
UK will end up staying in CU until technology is developed and proven.

I think this is a classic example of the Pareto Principle or the 80/20 rule .

80% of the work takes 20% of the time.
20% of the work takes 80% of the time.

trellheim

Barnier also was positive saying, 80% had been agreed. Glass more than half full type of encouragement.
Both sides know further compromise is now necessary. Anyone in the UK who believes that Chequers deal is the end, is a fool and not a realist.
UK will end up staying in CU until technology is developed and proven.

Barnier is correct . Additionally, the transition deal is more or less done as well. However - nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

The 20% that is left to be agreed is the hard parts like NI and FOM ; everyone knows this.

What's the UK lowest price here - lower than this we will not go ? With May I think its FOM given her history.

Unless UKGOV burn it down to the wire then the negotiations need to be rolling now. I reckon a leadership challenge soon so

Leroy42

Surely the ECJ is the real sticking point. May has already (last weekend) alluded that there might well be preferential treatment of EU citizens coming to the UK.

May has had an issue with the ECJ for years, and FOM was then trotted out as the excuse for her doing nothing material about immigration.

Reports are coming out today that the UK is stepping up its preparations for a no deal. The reports, at least, seem to be focused on the stockpiling of food and medicines ahead of any potential chaos at the ports.

So in the middle of one of the longest peace-times in history, the UK is coming up with plans on stockpiling, and thus rationing, food and medicines!

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

Barnier is correct . Additionally, the transition deal is more or less done as well. However - nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

The 20% that is left to be agreed is the hard parts like NI and FOM ; everyone knows this.

What's the UK lowest price here - lower than this we will not go ? With May I think its FOM given her history.

Unless UKGOV burn it down to the wire then the negotiations need to be rolling now. I reckon a leadership challenge soon so

I think the ECJ and the ECHR are two majors with her as well. The ECHR is not part of Barniers bag, but ECJ is probably more important the FOM from the EU pov.

FOM is overplayed by the UK Gov - because they never used all the tools in the box. Also, they never fully charged back on the EHIC because the NHS has (had) no normal mechanism for charging back. They are correcting that now.

Of course, if the UK had been more pro-EU they would know all this and applied the rules to their benefit, but their disdain for the EU led to contempt for all things EU, so missed out on many good features.

I am sure Corbyn could do his nationalisation projects within the rules - if only he knew them. For example, UK National Rail is already nationalised with no complaint from the EU. Many banks were nationalised without dissent. The French Gov can print the UK blue passports without complaint.

It is still my hope that they see sense and remain, but already much damage has been done.

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely the ECJ is the real sticking point. May has already (last weekend) alluded that there might well be preferential treatment of EU citizens coming to the UK.

May has had an issue with the ECJ for years, and FOM was then trotted out as the excuse for her doing nothing material about immigration.

Reports are coming out today that the UK is stepping up its preparations for a no deal. The reports, at least, seem to be focused on the stockpiling of food and medicines ahead of any potential chaos at the ports.

So in the middle of one of the longest peace-times in history, the UK is coming up with plans on stockpiling, and thus rationing, food and medicines!

Meanwhile cancer patients reliant on radioactive isotopes for diagnosis and radiotherapy are left without life saving treatment

trellheim

I think the ECJ and the ECHR are two majors with her as well. The ECHR is not part of Barniers bag, but ECJ is probably more important the FOM from the EU pov.

FOM is overplayed by the UK Gov - because they never used all the tools in the box. Also, they never fully charged back on the EHIC because the NHS has (had) no normal mechanism for charging back. They are correcting that now.

Of course, if the UK had been more pro-EU they would know all this and applied the rules to their benefit, but their disdain for the EU led to contempt for all things EU, so missed out on many good features.

I am sure Corbyn could do his nationalisation projects within the rules - if only he knew them. For example, UK National Rail is already nationalised with no complaint from the EU. Many banks were nationalised without dissent. The French Gov can print the UK blue passports without complaint.

It is still my hope that they see sense and remain, but already much damage has been done.

No matter what happens except a no-deal I believe the ECJ will remain in oversight - this will be agreed in a negotiation ; a big move was made apparently on Friday to this. The EU will never accept a court above the ECJ .

As you say ECHR not part of TF50

Not sure about the UK nat rail - Railtrack is the infra operator sure, but the TOCs and ROSCOs are all private ( bar of course LNER - operator of last resort because VTEC could not do what they saidthey would , and TFL).

FOM will be the red line , they will take ECJ oversight ( a form of words will be found to save face ).

( next question is how do you police the irish border so , and you end up at a hard choice or two for Ireland ... it will be on the table in a few weeks but at least its talking )

Alternatives

1) TF50 reject in entirety
2) fullblown crisis , GE in UK - although see from twitter where people are saying the fixed term parliaments act is making this a difficult option..

unicorn stuff

3) 3rd political party forms in UK ... unlikely

Sam Russell

:pac:

trellheim wrote: »

No matter what happens except a no-deal I believe the ECJ will remain in oversight - this will be agreed in a negotiation ; a big move was made apparently on Friday to this. The EU will never accept a court above the ECJ .

As you say ECHR not part of TF50

Not sure about the UK nat rail - Railtrack is the infra operator sure, but the TOCs and ROSCOs are all private ( bar of course LNER - operator of last resort because VTEC could not do what they saidthey would , and TFL).

FOM will be the red line , they will take ECJ oversight ( a form of words will be found to save face ).

( next question is how do you police the irish border so , and you end up at a hard choice or two for Ireland ... it will be on the table in a few weeks but at least its talking )

Alternatives

1) TF50 reject in entirety
2) fullblown crisis , GE in UK - although see from twitter where people are saying the fixed term parliaments act is making this a difficult option..

unicorn stuff

3) 3rd political party forms in UK ... unlikely

They managed to have a GE last year despite Corbyn facing total wipe out, but he voted for it anyway, and got 40% of the popular vote.

Will Brexit be fought by Labour looking for a soft outcome or a withdrawal of At 50?

I think Norway is most likely at this stage, but anything is likely.

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

No matter what happens except a no-deal I believe the ECJ will remain in oversight - this will be agreed in a negotiation ; a big move was made apparently on Friday to this. The EU will never accept a court above the ECJ .

As you say ECHR not part of TF50

Not sure about the UK nat rail - Railtrack is the infra operator sure, but the TOCs and ROSCOs are all private ( bar of course LNER - operator of last resort because VTEC could not do what they saidthey would , and TFL).

FOM will be the red line , they will take ECJ oversight ( a form of words will be found to save face ).

( next question is how do you police the irish border so , and you end up at a hard choice or two for Ireland ... it will be on the table in a few weeks but at least its talking )

Alternatives

1) TF50 reject in entirety
2) fullblown crisis , GE in UK - although see from twitter where people are saying the fixed term parliaments act is making this a difficult option..

unicorn stuff

3) 3rd political party forms in UK ... unlikely

The Liberals are a middle of the road and Europhilic party. Look where that's got them. The British electorate are stuck in a very binary system perpetuated by FPP and the two major parties.

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think Norway is most likely at this stage, but anything is likely.

But what actual difference will moving to a Norway model mean in terms of what the voters can see?

Payments to the EU would continue, freedom of movement would continue (but would the EU expect the UK to enter Schengen Area in return?).

Is there enough a a difference for May to sell it as Brexit? She has promised Red Lines and No deal for so long that it almost must be otherwise it will be seen as capitulation

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

But what actual difference will moving to a Norway model mean in terms of what the voters can see?

Compared to today? Not much.

Compared to the Mad Max wasteland of a crashout Brexit in March? Quite a lot.

And they will sell it as an extended transition to the land of cake and unicorns which will come about when the technology is rolled out (along with the beam-me-up-scotty transporters).

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Compared to today? Not much.

Compared to the Mad Max wasteland of a crashout Brexit in March? Quite a lot.

And they will sell it as an extended transition to the land of cake and unicorns which will come about when the technology is rolled out (along with the beam-me-up-scotty transporters).

It would be interesting to see May attempt to turn Brexit patriotism on itself by insisting that the extended Norway+ transition period was intended to protect the integrity of 'our precious union'. You could see that really splitting the Brexit camp into factions that either believe it's the right move, would rather cleave off the north, or do what Mogg suggested and flout WTO rules by erecting no border into NI.

An Ciarraioch

briany wrote: »

It would be interesting to see May attempt to turn Brexit patriotism on itself by insisting that the extended Norway+ transition period was intended to protect the integrity of 'our precious union'. You could see that really splitting the Brexit camp into factions that either believe it's the right move, would rather cleave off the north, or do what Mogg suggested and flout WTO rules by erecting no border into NI.

In many respects, the Brexit debate is merely part of a broader global debate between internationalism and isolationism, and the Commons debate will encapsulate that - is Corbyn truly committed to free trade and open markets in the sense that Keir Starmer certainly appears to be, and will an eventual Chequers vote see ideologically similar MPs from across the House defying party whips?

An Ciarraioch

An interesting piece on UK political party memberships - the Labour rise is well documented, but the Lib Dems have bounced back considerably from their 2015 nadir, and the Tories are surprisingly low:

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05125#fullreport

Water John

Yeah would really like to see a Lab/LD Govt. It could be well balanced. Even if LB had a small majority they would be better off with the Lib Dems on board.

WomanSkirtFan8

Water John wrote: »

Yeah would really like to see a Lab/LD Govt. It could be well balanced. Even if LB had a small majority they would be better off with the Lib Dems on board.

you know something? that was my exact thought last night. I agree with that assessment.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1017034789835198464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.digitalspy.com%2Fdiscussion%2F2288998%2Ftheresa-may-allegedly-out-of-the-woods-for-now%2Fp9

trellheim

Better it happen sooner rather than later

Leroy42

I have to say, if I was May I let them at it. Let JRM take over. If they table any motions I would call their bluff. If you table any motion it will be taken as a direct vote of no confidence and you had better have a leader willing to take this on.

Then walk off into the pension lined sunset. Like Ray Petterson in the Simpsons

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have to say, if I was May I let them at it. Let JRM take over. If they table any motions I would call their bluff. If you table any motion it will be taken as a direct vote of no confidence and you had better have a leader willing to take this on.

Then walk off into the pension lined sunset. Like Ray Petterson in the Simpsons

You do wonder why, at some point, May doesn't just say 'sod this!', write a conciliatory about being unable to unite the party, but God save the Queen and all that and head back into private life, laying low for a few years.

Mogg has even less of a chance of uniting the party. He's more of an ideologue than May, so I fail to see how his hard line won't prompt a rebellion in the other direction. He does have the dead man's switch of simply missing the deadline and allowing the country to slide into no deal - a situation he maintains is more agreeable than some other alternatives. However, having the preside over the potential ensuing chaos will soon take much of the shine off of the smooth-talking 'Moggster'.

Where's Spitting Image when you need it?

Tropheus

I don't think ERG have the numbers for a VOC never mind anything else. They get far more air time than they deserve.

I think May knew that and it's why she moved in the direction she did. If May gets her way, this will end in a Norway/Canada type deal. Chequers was just a step in that direction.

LeinsterDub

briany wrote: »

You do wonder why, at some point, May doesn't just say 'sod this!', write a conciliatory about being unable to unite the party, but God save the Queen and all that and head back into private life, laying low for a few years.

Mogg has even less of a chance of uniting the party. He's more of an ideologue than May, so I fail to see how his hard line won't prompt a rebellion in the other direction. He does have the dead man's switch of simply missing the deadline and allowing the country to slide into no deal - a situation he maintains is more agreeable than some other alternatives. However, having the preside over the potential ensuing chaos will soon take much of the shine off of the smooth-talking 'Moggster'.

Where's Spitting Image when you need it?

May for all her faults and there are many actually has British interests at heart. She's attempting to achieve the softest of softest brexits in order to honour the result and up hold democracy. She knows if she leaves the lunatic take over the asylum and will stop at nothing and burn everything to leave the EU.

Or least that's my reading of it.

briany

LeinsterDub wrote: »

May for all her faults and there are many actually has British interests at heart. She's attempting to achieve the softest of softest brexits in order to honour the result and up hold democracy. She knows if she leaves the lunatic take over the asylum and will stop at nothing and burn everything to leave the EU.

Or least that's my reading of it.

She's been trying to achieve a soft Brexit for a while now, and every time she makes a step in that direction, she has a cabal of politicians loudly screeching that the very thing she's *not* doing is honouring the result, and is really trying to destroy the whole process.

May has a huge problem, here. She needs action in order to get to a soft Brexit, while all that the hardcore Brexit politicians need is inertia in order to avoid this.

trellheim

Correct and thats what I've been saying for ages... all that matters to the hard brexiteers is out and then they can fix what is needed to be fixed ... the easiest way of doing this is chaos till March 29th.

( this is inertia, far harder to change what is NOW - no deal - to where there is a deal )

listermint

Channel 4 are really missing a trick here with a once off series of Spitting Image revival.

All the nostalgia going around at the moment about the good old days that stuff would be gold. And the material is daily nearly hourly.

Leroy42

briany wrote: »

She's been trying to achieve a soft Brexit for a while now, and every time she makes a step in that direction, she has a cabal of politicians loudly screeching that the very thing she's *not* doing is honouring the result, and is really trying to destroy the whole process.

May has a huge problem, here. She needs action in order to get to a soft Brexit, while all that the hardcore Brexit politicians need is inertia in order to avoid this.

It is all her own fault though. She shouldn't have gone off in the direction of Hard Brexit from the start. She should have campaigned during the election to secure the best possible deal for the UK on Brexit,

She has allowed the like of Boris and JRM to continue on with the narrative for so long that anything less is now seen as a betrayal (the telegraph are asing if May is a traitor!).

She was so spineless for so long. Its not like any of the info on how bad a no deal will be is just coming to light, people have been stating it for years.

There was virtually no one on the leave side saying that leaving the SM was part of the plan. So why did she make it a red line.

If she had gone in from day 1 with a Norway style deal to EU and the country she would not be in this position now, and the country would not have been in the hands of the brexiteers.

trellheim

Laura Kuenssberg tweet

Brexit White Paper contains plan for a 'joint institutional framework'- cabinet source says - Brexiteers not happy, some push even for more edits to document today - concern that additional detail of paper sketches out even closer relationship with EU than Chequers implied

as expected - as I said above - looking for a form of words that avoids the use of ECJ

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

Laura Kuenssberg tweet


as expected - as I said above - looking for a form of words that avoids the use of ECJ

This is why it was always going to be difficult. Saying you are going to leave the single market and customs union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ and also wanting access to the single market and friction less trade cannot work.

I think Theresa May has had luck so far. At all the points of her leadership where you could point that she knows what she is doing has been down to luck more than anything else. If you want to look at the politician look at her work at the Home Office. Then you only need to look at how long she took reply when Donald Trump attacked Sadiq Khan, or retweeted Britain First, or anything else basically.

Then you have her insistence that you can have access to the single market and friction less trade and access to EU institutions without acknowledging the ECJ. This is fantasy rubbish from her side and the sooner she decides on a path the better. Whether this is soft or hard, everyone will be better off if she just gets on with making a choice rather than hiding beneath the surface waiting to surface when it is safe.

PopePalpatine

listermint wrote: »

Channel 4 are really missing a trick here with a once off series of Spitting Image revival.

All the nostalgia going around at the moment about the good old days that stuff would be gold. And the material is daily nearly hourly.

Nah, what we really need is the return of The Thick of It, especially since Peter Capaldi doesn't have anything major going on at the moment.

Leroy42

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Nah, what we really need is the return of The Thick of It, especially since Peter Capaldi doesn't have anything major going on at the moment.

WHy do we need anybody to make anything up.

The reality is far more funny than anyone could write.

LuckyLloyd

briany wrote: »

You do wonder why, at some point, May doesn't just say 'sod this!', write a conciliatory about being unable to unite the party, but God save the Queen and all that and head back into private life, laying low for a few years.

Mogg has even less of a chance of uniting the party. He's more of an ideologue than May, so I fail to see how his hard line won't prompt a rebellion in the other direction. He does have the dead man's switch of simply missing the deadline and allowing the country to slide into no deal - a situation he maintains is more agreeable than some other alternatives. However, having the preside over the potential ensuing chaos will soon take much of the shine off of the smooth-talking 'Moggster'.

Where's Spitting Image when you need it?

She's 61, this is it. Be PM for as long as possible for once she's gone she'll be gone for good.

I have always felt the debates about where she is on the Leave : Remain scale or whether her actions are all a cunning plan to outfox Brexiteers in the best interests of the country miss the point. For me, her main priority has always been power, and her political instincts are right wing and nationalistic. It's not hard to view all this within that prism: this was about putting her in the driving seat, gambling JRM et al will blink and she'll be solidified in PM for up to another year while seeing out Brexit and maybe up to the end of the transition period.

VinLieger

Leroy42 wrote: »

WHy do we need anybody to make anything up.

The reality is far more funny than anyone could write.

Because a Malcolm Tucker monologue on the ridiculousness might make the whole clusterfvck a tiny bit worth it

briany

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

She's 61, this is it. Be PM for as long as possible for once she's gone she'll be gone for good.

I'm not saying she'll be able to return to political life, but laying low for a few years will let the press and public forget her ineptitude (somewhat), and she can move on to the kind of post-political busywork that John Major and Tony Blair involve themselves with e.g. head up some think tank or write a memoir.

An Ciarraioch

One amendment to the Trade Bill seeks to make the Backstop illegal - note the signature of a former NI Secretary:

https://twitter.com/zachjourno/status/1017057552453029889

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, it seems Liam Fox is too delusional to resign:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-liam-fox-warning-eu-leaders-theresa-may-reject-brexit-plan-a8442501.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, it seems Liam Fox is too delusional to resign:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-liam-fox-warning-eu-leaders-theresa-may-reject-brexit-plan-a8442501.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

I like this line in particular

* Did not rule out resigning if the UK accepted staying in a customs union – insisting it would be better for the UK to leave without a deal.

So basically, all the politicians from the likes of Ireland should go against the EU in order to secure a deal as otherwise they face economic pain, but he will resign unless the PM ensures that pain multiplied for the UK!

Got it.

mickoneill31

Leroy42 wrote: »

WHy do we need anybody to make anything up.

The reality is far more funny than anyone could write.

Episode one of Team Able Archer is quite good. The second and third are average.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVQjEWajhr1y8ldCSSbg-tQ

Lemming

briany wrote: »

I'm not saying she'll be able to return to political life, but laying low for a few years will let the press and public forget her ineptitude (somewhat), and she can move on

Slim chance of that happening.

Exhibit A: Tony Blair
Exhibit B: Nick Clegg

And Nick Clegg was & is pilloried for much, much less than either Tony Blair or Theresa May could ever be accused of.

An Ciarraioch

Lemming wrote: »

Slim chance of that happening.

Exhibit A: Tony Blair
Exhibit B: Nick Clegg

And Nick Clegg was & is pilloried for much, much less than either Tony Blair or Theresa May could ever be accused of.

On the flipside, Major and Brown are arguably better regarded now than during their spells as PM.

Lemming

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

On the flipside, Major and Brown are arguably better regarded now than during their spells as PM.

Brown is a bit of an odd one; he's scoffed at rather than derided like the above politicians, but he is not a popular throwback at any rate. Major on the other hand has always struck me as a far more honest servant-of-the-people sort of politician, with a level of statesmanship and decorum about him sadly and exceptionally sorely missing in today's pathetic shower of misfits. Dull and unexciting perhaps, but carried an air of being thoughtful & pragmatic. Anyway, I digress from all things Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

Dymo wrote: »

The way the BBC reported it on their news was, that the EU was ready now to relax their stance and come to an agreement with the UK (according to the Irish Prime minister)

Thanks for that

[RANT]
Oh FFS, he said nothing of the sort. :mad:

It's the sort of journalism you'd be embarassed to see in a biased red-top.

Just in case anyone from the UK media is watching -
He's said nothing new. Pretty much what everyone on the EU has said since day 1,
IF the UK relaxes on their self imposed red lines, we'll haggle.

Speaking in the Dáil, Mr Varadkar said:
"If the United Kingdom was able to relax from some of its red lines, then the European Union could be flexible too. I think we are now entering into that space."

BTW this reality check is just embarassing.
ZERO recognition of the reality of the situation that the EU would have to do lots of u-turns and thow freedoms under buses and allow lots of third parties to get bumped up to the same deal because of existing treaties.

It might as well start "Imagine if , in spite of everything they have done or said since the Coal and Steel thing started, the EU caved in to these demands" and ignores the consequences to the EU of doing so.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44766080

VinLieger

I bet May is gutted about the football, if they had won she could have ridden that as a small bit of cover for a while

Capt'n Midnight

VinLieger wrote: »

I bet May is gutted about the football, if they had won she could have ridden that as a small bit of cover for a while

Never fear,
The Donald is here

so she should be OK to the weekend

Sam Russell

VinLieger wrote: »

I bet May is gutted about the football, if they had won she could have ridden that as a small bit of cover for a while

Well not exactly. They now have the Saturday showdown - England vs Brussels. Just what they wanted all along - only on Sunday.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

Yeah would really like to see a Lab/LD Govt. It could be well balanced. Even if LB had a small majority they would be better off with the Lib Dems on board.

Tory sans DUP could do a deal with Lib Dems or SNP to pull the plug on Brexit. Or even get some Labour votes.

Ditching the DUP is trivial. Like Labour all they need is the will to grasp the nettle.


Truth is that neither Labour nor Tory have the nerve to say Stop!

An Ciarraioch

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well not exactly. They now have the Saturday showdown - England vs Brussels. Just what they wanted all along - only on Sunday.

Considering an EU nation is now guaranteed to win, they won't get much mileage out of the consolation prize.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well not exactly. They now have the Saturday showdown - England vs Brussels. Just what they wanted all along - only on Sunday.

Hazard is No 10

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Hazard is No 10

Who plays at No. 10?

trellheim

Dull and unexciting perhaps, but carried an air of being thoughtful & pragmatic.

John Major ? Edwina Curries paramour ? ( although Spitting Image did rip him something awful ) .



ANYWAY

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, a no-deal Brexit would apparently see a flotilla of barges carrying generators shipped to Norn Iron, because of the danger to the single electricity market:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/11/whitehalls-potty-plan-to-keep-ni-lights-on-if-no-brexit-deal

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, a no-deal Brexit would apparently see a flotilla of barges carrying generators shipped to Norn Iron, because of the danger to the single electricity market:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/11/whitehalls-potty-plan-to-keep-ni-lights-on-if-no-brexit-deal

Mad that they were allowed to keep up the "no deal is better than a bad deal" bull**** for so long.