Brexit discussion thread IV

murphaph

Sam Russell wrote: »

I reckon the Dept for Exiting the EU costs a billion a year to run (if that is the right word). The EU costs might be a lot less, but not zero. The UK costs are higher because it was a thrown together dept that was basically chasing round in circles and had a high churn rate.

The EU side was diverted from other tasks.

Each pays its own costs, but remembers.

If they do revoke A50 then they'd have to cover their share of the EU costs too and that would be proportional to their GDP etc. Can you imagine the headlines in the UK gutter press?!

First Up

A brief watch of the Labour conference and its obvious they are as split down the middle as the Tories. Just as vague (and ignorant) on the economic consequences (not to mention Ireland) and they just substitute the Tory waffle about sovereignty with their own waffle about a capitalist conspiracy.

All the evidence points to the UK crashing out - with flags flying.

briany

First Up wrote: »

A brief watch of the Labour conference and its obvious they are as split down the middle as the Tories. Just as vague (and ignorant) on the economic consequences (not to mention Ireland) and they just substitute the Tory waffle about sovereignty with their own waffle about a capitalist conspiracy.

That's because the split runs right down British society, so both parties are trying to talk out of both sides of their mouths in order to placate their base and the MPs representing them. More than anything, it's shown that both parties have put power over principle.

Harika

briany wrote: »

That's because the split runs right down British society, so both parties are trying to talk out of both sides of their mouths in order to placate their base and the MPs representing them. More than anything, it's shown that both parties have put power over principle.

And there are Labour people who think because of this split, there should not be another referendum, because the last was so decisive.

First Up

briany wrote:

That's because the split runs right down British society, so both parties are trying to talk out of both sides of their mouths in order to placate their base and the MPs representing them. More than anything, it's shown that both parties have put power over principle.

Well of course they want to be in office but they are also being pragmatic. The next election will not be fought over Brexit. It might be fought over how to best deal with the consequences of Brexit but they know it is not the issue that differentiates their candidates.

Inquitus

Labour leave it open for remain to be on any second ballot!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/25/keir-starmer-brexit-zinger-labour-conference-remain-option-peoples-vote

First Up

Inquitus wrote:

Labour leave it open for remain to be on any second ballot!

An unscripted line in a speech doesn't make it party policy.

Zubeneschamali

First Up wrote: »

An unscripted line in a speech doesn't make it party policy.

Sounds like the reaction in the room will. 90% of Labour members are Remainers.

BonnieSituation

Harika wrote: »

And there are Labour people who think because of this split, there should not be another referendum, because the last was so decisive.

Decisive or divisive?

Harika

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Decisive or divisive?

divisive :rolleyes:

Anyway, the arguments coming out of Labour against a referendum are ridiculous.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Sounds like the reaction in the room will. 90% of Labour members are Remainers.

65/35 in the referendum. Plenty of people sat on their hands during the speech.

BonnieSituation

Harika wrote: »

divisive :rolleyes:

Anyway, the arguments coming out of Labour against a referendum are ridiculous.

It changes the argument you were making and whether you're worth listening to or another blind Brexiteer. Move along now.

Professor Moriarty

From a YouGov poll of 10,000 voters during the summer: Labour supporters would back the Remain option in any vote by 77 percent.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From a YouGov poll of 10,000 voters during the summer: Labour supporters would back the Remain option in any vote by 77 percent.

The real question is would the 33% Brexit voters vote Tory in a GE.

If the answer is NO then the Labour strategy should be to go all out for the Peoples Vote - because it will split the Tories wide open with a GE inevitable if the answer is Remain, and then a Labour Government.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

The real question is would the 33% Brexit voters vote Tory in a GE.

If the answer is NO then the Labour strategy should be to go all out for the Peoples Vote - because it will split the Tories wide open with a GE inevitable if the answer is Remain, and then a Labour Government.

It will also resurrect UKIP.

murphaph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It will also resurrect UKIP.

I'm not sure you can resurrect a party that never got a single MP elected under their banner
UKIP take votes from both main parties but if anything probably more from the Tories so it shouldn't concern Labour too much really.

The wind is clearly blowing towards Labour offering "remain" as an option if they have anything to do with the wording on the ballot. We have an interesting couple of weeks ahead.

Professor Moriarty

murphaph wrote: »

I'm not sure you can resurrect a party that never got a single MP elected under their banner
UKIP take votes from both main parties but if anything probably more from the Tories so it shouldn't concern Labour too much really.

The wind is clearly blowing towards Labour offering "remain" as an option if they have anything to do with the wording on the ballot. We have an interesting couple of weeks ahead.

They went from an average of 3% throughout the year to an average of 6% in September. Any further wavering or infighting within the Tory party will see Tory voters look for a new home - especially hard Brexiteer voters. That new home won't be the Lib Dems or Labour. Funnily enough, the Tories still lead Labour in the polls. Which is a damning indictment of Corbyn.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They went from an average of 3% throughout the year to an average of 6% in September. Any further wavering or infighting within the Tory party will see Tory voters look for a new home - especially hard Brexiteer voters. That new home won't be the Lib Dems or Labour. Funnily enough, the Tories still lead Labour in the polls. Which is a damning indictment of Corbyn.

In FPTP elections, the UKIP vote, if it stays below 10%, will effect the Tories in a much greater number of seats than it will effect the LP. In Scotland, the Tories might face another near wipe out. Labour might do quite well in Scotland if they can keep ahead of the Tories, and be seen as the home for the anti-SNP party.

Corbyn is a really bad leader, and like was said about Arafat, he has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. He should be leading the Tories by double digits in the polls.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

In FPTP elections, the UKIP vote, if it stays below 10%, will effect the Tories in a much greater number of seats than it will effect the LP. In Scotland, the Tories might face another near wipe out. Labour might do quite well in Scotland if they can keep ahead of the Tories, and be seen as the home for the anti-SNP party.

Corbyn is a really bad leader, and like was said about Arafat, he has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. He should be leading the Tories by double digits in the polls.

Imagine if Keir Starmer was leader.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It will also resurrect UKIP.

UKIP is already seeing something of a resurgance. However, it's leader Gerard Batten is positioning the party in a much more right wing manner than Nigel Farage ever did. Farage was careful to avoid the party being portrayed in a racist, bigoted or Islamophobic manner and tended to spin a Brexit based on freer trade, looser regulations and better services based on curbing immigration. It was nonsense of course but Batten's taking the party down exactly the path that Farage tried to avoid.

I don't see it being electorally viable for the party to go down this route in the UK. Paul Nuttall tried his "Guard dogs of Brexit" strategy and the party's vote collapsed with Nuttall himself, not to mention every other UKIP failing to win a seat.

First Up

Sam Russell wrote: »

The real question is would the 33% Brexit voters vote Tory in a GE.

If the answer is NO then the Labour strategy should be to go all out for the Peoples Vote - because it will split the Tories wide open with a GE inevitable if the answer is Remain, and then a Labour Government.

You can be sure that Labour is assessing the Leave/Remain attitude in every constituency. So far their conclusion is that more Labour voters would abstain or vote pro-Brexit Tory than Remainer Tories would cross to Labour.

Their objective is to win seats. Everything else is secondary.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

UKIP is already seeing something of a resurgance. However, it's leader Gerard Batten is positioning the party in a much more right wing manner than Nigel Farage ever did. Farage was careful to avoid the party being portrayed in a racist, bigoted or Islamophobic manner and tended to spin a Brexit based on freer trade, looser regulations and better services based on curbing immigration. It was nonsense of course but Batten's taking the party down exactly the path that Farage tried to avoid.

I don't see it being electorally viable for the party to go down this route in the UK. Paul Nuttall tried his "Guard dogs of Brexit" strategy and the party's vote collapsed with Nuttall himself failing to win a seat.

Similar to Labour, if UKIP had a decent leader a la Farage (charismatic) then they would be taking large chunks of the Brexiteer vote from the Tories. The fact that they've doubled their potential vote, despite the leadership debacle and Batten's ineptitude, says a lot about the state of the Tory Party. May, Corbyn, Cable and Batten are very poor. The door is wide open for a Thatcher or Blair.

Enzokk

First Up wrote: »

65/35 in the referendum. Plenty of people sat on their hands during the speech.

The referendum is not Labour members that will decide, apparently, on the course Labour will plot.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From a YouGov poll of 10,000 voters during the summer: Labour supporters would back the Remain option in any vote by 77 percent.

There was a poll done by YouGov for the conference of 1000 Labour members and the numbers were then 90% in favour of staying in the EU and 86% want a vote on what amounts to the Withdrawal Agreement.

Tom Watson tells Corbyn: ‘We must back members on new Brexit vote’

ancapailldorcha

I have to say that, as someone living here who would fit into the liberal end of the Labour party fairly neatly, it is hard to convey the depth of frustration I've felt over the last few days of the party. It's clear that the members largely back a remain vote and the leadership seems intent on obfuscation at every available opportunity instead of going for the Conservative party's wide open jugular. It's Corbyn's wide open ticket to being in government. He might lose part of the party's working class vote but he'd make huge gains in cities where people might be concerned about his ability to govern as well as among those who voted Lib Dem in 2017.

First Up

Enzokk wrote: »

The referendum is not Labour members that will decide, apparently, on the course Labour will plot.

There was a poll done by YouGov for the conference of 1000 Labour members and the numbers were then 90% in favour of staying in the EU and 86% want a vote on what amounts to the Withdrawal Agreement.

Tom Watson tells Corbyn: ‘We must back members on new Brexit vote’

Labour have 257 MPs in Westminster. 210 of them voted for A50. When asked why, they say it is the wish of their constituents.

It is cloud-cuckoo land stuff to think the party under the pro-Brexit Corbyn's leadership (or anyone likely to be elected to replace him) will mount an election campaign based on reversing Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

The referendum is not Labour members that will decide, apparently, on the course Labour will plot.





There was a poll done by YouGov for the conference of 1000 Labour members and the numbers were then 90% in favour of staying in the EU and 86% want a vote on what amounts to the Withdrawal Agreement.

Tom Watson tells Corbyn: ‘We must back members on new Brexit vote’

There are two small but significant differences though. One is a poll of voters and the other is a poll of members. Also, the summer poll asked if Remain should be an option in the event of a referendum whereas the Members poll asked about voting Remain. All in all, as both polls show, there seems to be a huge swing towards Remain amongst Labour voters and members.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There are two small but significant differences though. One is a poll of voters and the other is a poll of members. Also, the summer poll asked if Remain should be an option in the event of a referendum whereas the Members poll asked about voting Remain. All in all, as both polls show, there seems to be a huge swing towards Remain amongst Labour voters and members.

Yes, I think we are sort of saying the same thing which is that there is a shift in Labour members and voters attitude to remaining. So let us see what Labour is up to at the conference then,

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1044587662588481537

Okay, so even if Labour was in charge there would be chaos as they cannot seem to agree on what their members are telling them they want. And when they seem to listen to their members and set out the policy you have the wing of the party that professes to be for the people just pissing into the wind and putting their fingers in their ears when the people tell them what they want. That about it?

So since yesterday we have had confusion on what was agreed, then on whether remain was still an option, then about extending article 50 or not and now Keir Starmer's version of what Labour want in a vote is being disputed. This all since yesterday morning.

I think we could just see the start of Corbyn's Labour disintegrating. I would not be sad seeing as they are trying their hardest to ignore the voices that got him elected in the first place.

An Ciarraioch

A pragmatic Claire Byrne poll result on a United Ireland, with 49% favouring the idea "at some future point", compared with 18% wanting immediate unity - so while that essentially reflects the view that people would be happy to see it happen when NI itself is ready, it still won't satisfy unionist "annexation" comments on the backstop:

https://twitter.com/ClaireByrneLive/status/1044488822761902082

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, I think we are sort of saying the same thing which is that there is a shift in Labour members and voters attitude to remaining. So let us see what Labour is up to at the conference then,

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1044587662588481537

Okay, so even if Labour was in charge there would be chaos as they cannot seem to agree on what their members are telling them they want. And when they seem to listen to their members and set out the policy you have the wing of the party that professes to be for the people just pissing into the wind and putting their fingers in their ears when the people tell them what they want. That about it?

So since yesterday we have had confusion on what was agreed, then on whether remain was still an option, then about extending article 50 or not and now Keir Starmer's version of what Labour want in a vote is being disputed. This all since yesterday morning.

I think we could just see the start of Corbyn's Labour disintegrating. I would not be sad seeing as they are trying their hardest to ignore the voices that got him elected in the first place.

It's a mirror image of what is happening in the Tory party and is a result of FPTP. Apart from the regions (NI, Wales, Scotland) pulling at the threads, Brexit is exposing the differences between the various wings of each party. For the Tories, it's the centrist One Nation Tories versus the Little Englanders. For Labour it's the Blairites versus Momentum.

flatty

The main reason corbyn got elected was that he wasn't Tony Blair. I'd tend to be a centrist. Vowed never to vote Labour again after Iraq, and voted either lib dem or green since. I'd vote for Labour in this election if they had a coherent and constructive brexit policy. I'd vote for them after brexit if they pushed a Norway rather than a Canada model, but I just do not trust the current leadership. Mcdonnell, whatever I think of his policies, more strikes be as the kind of blithering opinionated idiot who would shout at you for parking in the wrong spot at his golf club. He is so thoroughly unlikeable Ill likely end up voting lib dem again. If Labour had any kind of semi credible leader and vaguely centrist policies, they'd be in power for a generation as the blue rinse brigade die off.