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Brexit discussion thread IV
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I disagree. Labour don't want Brexit to be a disaster; the hard left think it's an inherently good thing, since they see the EU as an instrument of capitalist hegemony, and therefore leaving the EU will not be disastrous; it will be fundamentally progressive.The red end of Labour's whole strategy is based on Brexit being a disaster. They see that as the platform for the revolution and overthrow of capitalism. They don't want Brexit reversed. That includes Corbyn.
Of course they recognise that Brexit will be painful, but they see that as purgatory before heaven, so to speak; a necessary pain that is worth it because of what will ensue. They don't want it because it will be painful. And (if it's going to be a Labour-administered Brexit) they don't want it to be any more painful than it has to be.
If it comes to an election, let's face it, the Tories have the miasma of failure about them. Does May look to you like the leader who is going to win the Tories a fourth successive term? Do the Tories right now look like a party that could win a fourth successive term under any credible leader, if they had a credible leader? It's undeniable that the party is at a low point in its history - leaderless, rudderless, deeply divided, fighting like cats in a bag and displaying monumental incompetence. So I see the tide as flowing against the Tories, basically.If it comes to an election (and it might) the Tories will campaign on preserving the British way of life. Labour under Corbyn won't campaign on re-joining the EU; they will scare the sh%t out of the soft centre with talk of a socialist solution.
That doesn't mean, of course, that Tory voters will switch en masse to Labour, and particularly not to Corbyn-led Labour. But it could mean that they stay at home, which from Corbyn's point of view is almost as good. And you're quite right that Corbyn won't campaign on re-joining (or remaning in) the EU, but Labour is still well-positioned to pick up the bulk of the remainer vote (in so far as remainers turn out) because (a) the party is heavily Remain in sentiment, and remainers know this, so there is more chance of a pro-Remain policy shift, and (b) Labour at least offers a less hard Brexit. If you're a remainer but you have to have a Brexit, you definitely want the Labour Brexit rather than the Tory Brexit.0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »I think they will use mobile inspection units away from the border.
First goods requiring inspection will be obliged to use specified cossing points and routes. Some shippers will get 'Trusted Trader' status and may be allowed more freedom - for example liquid milk.
Much of the surveillance will be intellgence led from NI, both PSNI and Northern Customs.
However the real ****show will be going on in Dover and Calais, Folkstone, and Heathrow. How long that lasts will determine how long the Irish border lasts.
Yep, that's what will put used as a solution to the border problem - but it wont work in practice - The control of goods/people North to South just wont happen.0 -
Labour can't win without the soft middle. Corbyn alienates it.
Is it just me but I cant seem to "get" Corbyn, what's his agenda. He gives me the creeps when ever I see him on TV he's as slippery as they come as well... wont answer a straight question. But he's seen as some rock star by many people. Thought is was bad form of him also during the Brexit campaign, he never came out strong for Europe and he could have swung it.
Nah I would never vote for him if I was I British6.1kWp south facing, South of Cork City
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The DUP will never accept a deal that creates any kind of border in Ireland, and the magical technological solution has failed to materialize.
Really the Irish border is one of the best chances we have to bring down the government and maybe call the whole thing off.
Corbyn comes over as genuine and principled... It's just a shame he is not a fan of the EU. Contrast with recent Tory robot figureheads, prone to malfunctioning and not very life-like. I actually spoke to V3 in person, it was like having a conversation with one of those automated telephone systems. Had to resist the urge to mash the # key to get to a real person.0 -
I really don't see how Labour could win. They are as deeply divided as the Tories. Clearly Starmer wants to remain, clearly Corbyn doesn't. Starmer is one of their star players, yet he was forced into an off script remark in order to try to leverage the party to his way. None of the various spokespeople can give any coherent answers, certainly not consistent with each other.
That comes from the top. How does anyone think Corbyn could run a country when he can't even run his won party.
The guy may very well be principled, but he is a terrible leader. He continually fails to hold TM to account in PMQ, despite it basically being an open goal every week and TM being among one of the worst PM's in history. He can not deal with any issues without a long drawn out fiasco that completely diverts from the real news of the day.
Having good ideas and a good character is not enough to be a leader. You need charisma, an ability to get your message across.
18 months after the vote and only a few months before Brexit day, Labour are inching towards coming to, at some stage, when more facts are available, if the Tories don't fully deliver, a possible position on Brexit. A position where everything is on the table an nothing is ruled in or out except whatever it is that people don't seem to want.0 -
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Corbyn is an idealogue. Representative politics and ideology make poor bedfellows. You're not representing your constituents, just your ideologies. Sometimes they can align, but in this case there's a huge gulf between Corbyn's ideologies and what's best for his constituents. No version of brexit will improve the lot of the working class. He's convinced that burning down the house will build a new better house from the ashes. In fact it will just put more power and wealth in the hands of the people he despises.The DUP will never accept a deal that creates any kind of border in Ireland, and the magical technological solution has failed to materialize.
Really the Irish border is one of the best chances we have to bring down the government and maybe call the whole thing off.
Corbyn comes over as genuine and principled... It's just a shame he is not a fan of the EU. Contrast with recent Tory robot figureheads, prone to malfunctioning and not very life-like. I actually spoke to V3 in person, it was like having a conversation with one of those automated telephone systems. Had to resist the urge to mash the # key to get to a real person.0 -
He's quite happy to answer straight questions on matters that are important to him. For example, you may agree with his views on nuclear weapons or disagree with them, but you can be at no doubt as to what they are. People often suggest that Corbyn is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiter but, actually, I think he's more likely to be a Brexiter-on-balance; all other things being equal, he'd rather Brexit, but it's not a central preoccupation for him and when he thought, before the 2016 referendum, that it would be advantageous to be a remainer, he was happy to present as a remainer.ECO_Mental wrote: »Is it just me but I cant seem to "get" Corbyn, what's his agenda. He gives me the creeps when ever I see him on TV he's as slippery as they come as well... wont answer a straight question. But he's seen as some rock star by many people. Thought is was bad form of him also during the Brexit campaign, he never came out strong for Europe and he could have swung it.
Nah I would never vote for him if I was I British
All politicians will try to dissimulate or prevaricate, if they think coming down firmly on one side or the other is going to lose them support. Corbyn is, if anything, less willing to do that than most. There are a number of things on which he will not pretend, and they represent his core values. Brexit is not among them.0 -
But those exact criticisms could be made with equal justification against the Tories and May, couldn't they? So if you're being consistent, you have to say that you really don't see how the Tories can win either. And yet one of them must win. And my (admittedly not-very-reliable) instinct says it will be Labour, because the Tories have been in for three terms and even their supporters will find it hard to think they have earned a fourth. And because Labour are in opposition, and it is always easier to pin hopes for better things on an opposition that looks likely to fail than on a government that actually is failing.I really don't see how Labour could win. They are as seeply divided as the Tories. Clearly Starmer wants to remain, clearly Corbyn doesn't. Starmer is one of their star players, yet he was forced into an off script remark in order to try to leverage the party to his way. None of the various spokespeople can give any coherent answers, certainly not consistent with each other.
That comes from the top. How does anyone think Corbyn could run a country when he can't even run his won party.
The guy may very well be principled, but he is a terrible leader. He continually fails to hold TM to account in PMQ, despite it basically being an open goal every week and TM being among one of the worst PM's in history. He can not deal with any issues without a long drawn out fiasco that completely diverts from the real news of the day.
Having good ideas and a good character is not enough to be a leader. You need charisma, an ability to get your message across.
It's not much, but at least they are inching towards coherence rather than away from it. We can't even say that much about the government, can we?18 months after the vote and only a few months before Brexit day, Labour are inching towards coming to, at some stage, when more facts are available, if the Tories don't fully deliver, a possible position on Brexit. A position where everything is on the table an nothing is ruled in or out except whatever it is that people don't seem to want.
PS: For what it's worth, the bookies have Labour odds-on to win the most seats at the next general election and, while not actually odds-on, better odds than the Tories to win a majority of seats. And, historically, the bookies have a better track record on this than the opinion polls.0 -
He continually fails to hold TM to account in PMQ, despite it basically being an open goal every week and TM being among one of the worst PM's in history.
Is this true? How can it be measured anyway?
Heres the Guardian on the last few PMQs (and we know the Guardian are editorially ambivalent at the very best on Corbyn).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/pmqs
"Quizmaster Corbyns tricky questions leave May flummoxed"
"Corbyn dances rings round May on Brexit"
"Corbyn takes unexpected bus route to victory"
And theres a few negative ones there as well, mainly pre the summer recess.
I'm sure the Express took a totally different outlook anyway "May DESTROYS Corbyn with this BRILLIANT point" etc.
But ultimately it's pretty unmeasurable unless the loser breaks into tears.0 -
Peregrinus wrote: »Except they're not actually unelectable under Corbyn, are they?
True, they haven't actually been elected, but that's not the same thing as being unelectable. At the one one general election they fought under Corbyn, the one where the press united in dismissing him as unelectable, Labour secured 40% of the vote. This is definitely a level of support that, if the cards fall right, can win an election. Labour governments - Labour majority governments - have been returned at previous general elections on lower percentages of the vote than that. It all depends on how the chips fall in the UK's quaintly crapulous electoral system. And, remember, the Conservative party that Corbyn will be opposing this time around is a bad joke.
So, yeah, "Corbyn is unelectable" is so 2016, FirstUp. I'm not saying that he will win the next election, but he is very electable.
One of the reasons that is given on why Labour did so well at the last election was the "dementia tax" that the Conservatives got hit with. Yet if you look at what age group voted for which party the Conservatives increased their vote with the voters from age 55 and older. From 2015 to 2017 they increased their vote by 14% in this age group. So it seems that the older people who this would hit first didn't seem to care about it so this issue didn't really swing the election for Corbyn.
It was his policies on the economy and the NHS that he hurt the Tories on. Has anything changed in the intervening years that will make voters changed their minds? The economy has in fact slowed down due to the government and its handling of Brexit.
So unless Corbyn scores an own goal on Brexit, which is entirely possible and he is playing against a team that is doing their best not be be outdone on scoring own goals, he has a very good chance to be elected and with a big majority.
Also, who knows what crazy policies Theresa May would come up with in a new election. We are not talking about the party that has embraced the masses. Eight years of austerity and Windrush should tell us that they should not win the soft middle, unless that soft middle is a lot harder than first thought.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-electionI really don't see how Labour could win. They are as deeply divided as the Tories. Clearly Starmer wants to remain, clearly Corbyn doesn't. Starmer is one of their star players, yet he was forced into an off script remark in order to try to leverage the party to his way. None of the various spokespeople can give any coherent answers, certainly not consistent with each other.
That comes from the top. How does anyone think Corbyn could run a country when he can't even run his won party.
The guy may very well be principled, but he is a terrible leader. He continually fails to hold TM to account in PMQ, despite it basically being an open goal every week and TM being among one of the worst PM's in history. He can not deal with any issues without a long drawn out fiasco that completely diverts from the real news of the day.
Having good ideas and a good character is not enough to be a leader. You need charisma, an ability to get your message across.
18 months after the vote and only a few months before Brexit day, Labour are inching towards coming to, at some stage, when more facts are available, if the Tories don't fully deliver, a possible position on Brexit. A position where everything is on the table an nothing is ruled in or out except whatever it is that people don't seem to want.
Don't knock his PMQ performance, I have not seen a lot of people being able to pin Theresa May in interviews either. Yes she has been uncomfortable with some questioning as she has in some PMQs, but her ability to keep to the Tory line is very impressive. She sounds broken when she does but she sticks to it. Why do you think she has the nickname the Maybot?0 -
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If there is one thing that makes O'Brien angrier than Brexit it is Corbyn, and Brexit makes him extremely angry. That said he has valid points on Corbyn supporters and their blind following of him. If I had a a vote I would support him because I couldn't support Conservative policies but I acknowledge he has serious problems that should have been put to bed already. The fact that they haven't (antisemitism in the party and his stance on Brexit) should cause some alarm. But when someone with those flaws are seen as better than the person he is running against tells you a lot of where we stand with politics in the UK right now.
I am extremely concerned though about the way this conference has gone for Labour. He has been shown to be nothing more than just another politician who will say what he can to become leader and yet when it comes to keeping to those words he tries to fudge it.
But I still believe the next election will be run not on Brexit as much as on what happens in the UK. He can fudge Brexit by stating he will not have red lines when negotiating with the EU meaning already it is better than the Tories, then he just has to sell them on the NHS and the economy.0 -
ECO_Mental wrote: »Is it just me but I cant seem to "get" Corbyn, what's his agenda. He gives me the creeps when ever I see him on TV he's as slippery as they come as well... wont answer a straight question. But he's seen as some rock star by many people. Thought is was bad form of him also during the Brexit campaign, he never came out strong for Europe and he could have swung it.
Nah I would never vote for him if I was I British
He seems to be straightfoward enough to me in his agenda, he is a good old fashioned Socialist. Nationalise key industries, redistribute the wealth through taxation, regulation and expanded social services, a strong state protecting the working class and the poor, you know, what Labour used to be about. That this seems to be creepy today goes to show how successfuly conservatism and new Labour have made Socialism into a dirty word in the UK as well as in the US.
He did not come out strongly in favour of the EU because from his viewpoint staying in the EU was arguably a least-worst option at the time, rather than something to be happy about. Socialists like Corbyn view the EU as a huge weight entrenching the neo-liberal agenda throughout Europe. He argued that it would be better to stay in and push for change, an "In and Against" platform, rather than go out and risk being swamped by the problems that would cause. That this proved to be an ineffective way of getting people to support remain is a fair criticisim, but then again the EU made itself unappealing to socialists so what do you expect?
Obviously you can disagree with his ideology and think that socialism would be somewhere between bad and disasterous for the UK, but that is where he is coming from.0 -
prawnsambo wrote: »Corbyn is an idealogue. Representative politics and ideology make poor bedfellows.
The problem isn't the ideology, it's that the UK doesn't have representative politics.
If Corbyn was where he should be - in charge of a socialist party, with a hard core of probably 5-10%, and another 5% or so waxing and waning, and who might form a coalition with Labour for some concessions on their centre-left platform if it couldn't achieve a majority, there wouldn't be an issue.0 -
I never understand why socialists don't like the EU. I mean it contains several countries famous for being very left wing and progressive including all sorts of benefits for workers and for students hoping to become workers. I wonder if it is just a rage against the machine type thing. It seems to be all the rage to find scapegoats these days (and probably always was).ECO_Mental wrote: »Is it just me but I cant seem to "get" Corbyn, what's his agenda. He gives me the creeps when ever I see him on TV he's as slippery as they come as well... wont answer a straight question. But he's seen as some rock star by many people. Thought is was bad form of him also during the Brexit campaign, he never came out strong for Europe and he could have swung it.
Nah I would never vote for him if I was I British
He seems to be straightfoward enough to me in his agenda, he is a good old fashioned Socialist. Nationalise key industries, redistribute the wealth through taxation, regulation and expanded social services, a strong state protecting the working class and the poor, you know, what Labour used to be about. That this seems to be creepy today goes to show how successfuly conservatism and new Labour have made Socialism into a dirty word in the UK as well as in the US.
He did not come out strongly in favour of the EU because from his viewpoint staying in the EU was arguably a least-worst option at the time, rather than something to be happy about. Socialists like Corbyn view the EU as a huge weight entrenching the neo-liberal agenda throughout Europe. He argued that it would be better to stay in and push for change, an "In and Against" platform, rather than go out and risk being swamped by the problems that would cause. That this proved to be an ineffective way of getting people to support remain is a fair criticisim, but then again the EU made itself unappealing to socialists so what do you expect?
Obviously you can disagree with his ideology and think that socialism would be somewhere between bad and disasterous for the UK, but that is where he is coming from.
If you are aiming for Venezuela I understand why it would be a bad thing for you but that has other issues.0 -
A very well known left leaning journalist told me, to my surprise, that Jeremy Corbyn is the most arrogant person she had ever met in politics, and she had met most.0
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I never understand why socialists don't like the EU. I mean it contains several countries famous for being very left wing and progressive including all sorts of benefits for workers and for students hoping to become workers. I wonder if it is just a rage against the machine type thing. It seems to be all the rage to find scapegoats these days (and probably always was).
I think I've said before its partly because the EU effortlessly brought in things like working time directive, parental leave, increased safety standards, max hours, minimum holidays etc.
True they are things socialists wanted, but more importantly they are things socialists wanted to fight for. The EU robbed socialism (in particular UK socialism) of the joy of the victorious struggle in these areas.0 -
I never understand why socialists don't like the EU. I mean it contains several countries famous for being very left wing and progressive including all sorts of benefits for workers and for students hoping to become workers. I wonder if it is just a rage against the machine type thing. It seems to be all the rage to find scapegoats these days (and probably always was).
If you are aiming for Venezuela I understand why it would be a bad thing for you but that has other issues.
People seem to want to take the worst posible example of Socialism and hold it up as a strawman example of what Socialism is. No one wants to be like Venezuela, and Venezula is not in the state it is because of Socialism. It's like saying that Greece is the ultimate end-state of capitalism and that capitalism is responsible for their dificulties. In both cases incompotence, curruption and underlying economic frailties are the real culprits.
As for the EU, it has plenty of socialist/social democratic members, but the institution iself has been dominated by a center right ideology for quite a while. Socialists have a problem with its economic policies, fiscal rules, competition directives. It amounts, in their view, to an entrenchment of a globalised neo-liberal economic system that promotes the concentration of wealth in a small number of private hands. On the other hand, most level headed Socialists would agree that outside of economic policy the EU is fairly good on things like consumer protection, human rights, protections for workers and so on.
I think the likes of Corbyn and his supportes are hoping that Brexit will so toxify the conservative image in the aftermath, that they will not only be able to take power and implement their policies, but swing the whole political culture of the UK to the left. They might see a change not only to win, but make the conservatives unelectable for a generation. As for the effects of Brexit itself, they would probably bring the UK back into line with the EU through an EEA like arangement, removing most of the major problems while mainting the freedom to enact the reforms they want. If you think there is a decent chance of something like that happening, it's not unreasonable to allow the Tories to jump of the cliff.0 -
An interesting short documentary about the Swiss border
https://www.rte.ie/eile/2018/0925/997996-break-for-the-border/0 -
Labour Leave MP Kate Hoey has claimed that the reason so many young people are anti-Brexit is because they have been “indoctrinated” by their university lecturers.
An incredible statement from Kate Hoey. Damn education..
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/kate-hoey-makes-bizarre-claim-at-labour-leave-event-at-party-conference-1-57105270 -
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People seem to want to take the worst posible example of Socialism and hold it up as a strawman example of what Socialism is. No one wants to be like Venezuela, and Venezula is not in the state it is because of Socialism. It's like saying that Greece is the ultimate end-state of capitalism and that capitalism is responsible for their dificulties. In both cases incompotence, curruption and underlying economic frailties are the real culprits.
As for the EU, it has plenty of socialist/social democratic members, but the institution iself has been dominated by a center right ideology for quite a while. Socialists have a problem with its economic policies, fiscal rules, competition directives. It amounts, in their view, to an entrenchment of a globalised neo-liberal economic system that promotes the concentration of wealth in a small number of private hands. On the other hand, most level headed Socialists would agree that outside of economic policy the EU is fairly good on things like consumer protection, human rights, protections for workers and so on.
I think the likes of Corbyn and his supportes are hoping that Brexit will so toxify the conservative image in the aftermath, that they will not only be able to take power and implement their policies, but swing the whole political culture of the UK to the left. They might see a change not only to win, but make the conservatives unelectable for a generation. As for the effects of Brexit itself, they would probably bring the UK back into line with the EU through an EEA like arangement, removing most of the major problems while mainting the freedom to enact the reforms they want. If you think there is a decent chance of something like that happening, it's not unreasonable to allow the Tories to jump of the cliff.
I don't think there is a single example of Socialism succeeding as an ideology. The generally totalitarian nature of the ideology prevents the emergence of evidence of corruption.
That is the key difference between social democracy (say the Labour Party in Ireland) and socialism (PBP, Sinn Fein). In a social democracy, the checks and balances on government are retained.0 -
I don't think there is a single example of Socialism succeeding as an ideology. The generally totalitarian nature of the ideology prevents the emergence of evidence of corruption.
That is the key difference between social democracy (say the Labour Party in Ireland) and socialism (PBP, Sinn Fein). In a social democracy, the checks and balances on government are retained.
The general jist of socialism is to provide and respect for the general person, not large corporations. ie - actually giving a **** about people.0 -
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An interesting short documentary about the Swiss border
https://www.rte.ie/eile/2018/0925/997996-break-for-the-border/
but the swiss border bears no semblance at all to the border in ireland. nowhere does, really.0 -
To show how Corbyn is just another politician that will say and do what they can do get in power, take this tweet as example of his speech at the conference.
https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/10449157746896691200 -
An interesting short documentary about the Swiss border
https://www.rte.ie/eile/2018/0925/997996-break-for-the-border/
but the swiss border bears no semblance at all to the border in ireland. nowhere does, really.
The point is that it's the model that Dan Hannan, among others, favours for our Border, and being outside the CU, it's similar to the bureaucracy that would emerge after March, unless May does some U-turn.0 -
To show how Corbyn is just another politician that will say and do what they can do get in power, take this tweet as example of his speech at the conference.
https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1044915774689669120
he obviously doesnt see the uk press as free press/ Plus bit mad quoting someone who seems to slag off labour ever second he gets isnt it?0 -
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he obviously doesnt see the uk press as free press/ Plus bit mad quoting someone who seems to slag off labour ever second he gets isnt it?
So who decides which press is free? I would guess most of his supporters would be of the opinion it would be the press that doesn't print negative stories about him or Labour. Still it takes some balls to go after those that attack the media, to then attacking them yourself.
The person who tweeted it doesn't seem to be anti-Corbyn unless I am not seeing the tweets you say. He has been tweeting about the infected blood inquiry and hasn't mentioned Corbyn for a few days at least that I went back with in any of his tweets except that one.0
This discussion has been closed.
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