Brexit discussion thread IV

Alun

maccored wrote: »

Outlined in this

https://www.joe.ie/news/labour-mp-winning-praise-one-english-politicians-speak-sense-brexit-641871

OK, from a political standpoint, I agree, but borders with numerous remote unmanned crossings and other oddities like borders splitting houses in two, areas with no road access, or enclaves / exclaves are not rare elsewhere. Baarle-Nassau is a rather extreme example.

maccored

Alun wrote: »

OK, from a political standpoint, I agree, but borders with numerous remote unmanned crossings and other oddities like borders splitting houses in two, areas with no road access, or enclaves / exclaves are not rare elsewhere. Baarle-Nassau is a rather extreme example.

The border in ireland is political though. Its not just about dividing land

maccored

Enzokk wrote: »

So who decides which press is free? I would guess most of his supporters would be of the opinion it would be the press that doesn't print negative stories about him or Labour. Still it takes some balls to go after those that attack the media, to then attacking them yourself.

The person who tweeted it doesn't seem to be anti-Corbyn unless I am not seeing the tweets you say. He has been tweeting about the infected blood inquiry and hasn't mentioned Corbyn for a few days at least that I went back with in any of his tweets except that one.

Google him. Nearly every news article or tweet by him is anti labour, whereas any conservative ones are favourable (admittedly i only quickly googled him)

kuro68k

Labour are the best bet if we can't get a People's Vote. Their requirement that the UK gets the "exact same benefits" after leaving ensures that it will have to remain in the Single Market and Customs Union.

joeysoap

Winters wrote: »

An incredible statement from Kate Hoey. Damn education..

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/kate-hoey-makes-bizarre-claim-at-labour-leave-event-at-party-conference-1-5710527

Kate Hoey.sharing a stage with Farage and Davis says it all. I’ve said before herself and Fields would be in the ERG if it weren’t conservative members only.

Water John

Labour to support TM if she stays in CU and no Irish border along social protection. As George Osbourne says, 'the ball is in PM's court.

Our second edition ⁦@EveningStandard⁩;: Corbyn offers May a Brexit deal - stay in customs union, keep open Irish border and social protection. Business and unions would accept this; many in Tory party won’t. Puts ball in PM’s court

kuro68k

Water John wrote: »

Our second edition ⁦@EveningStandard⁩;: Corbyn offers May a Brexit deal - stay in customs union, keep open Irish border and social protection. Business and unions would accept this; many in Tory party won’t. Puts ball in PM’s court

Should could get a majority with Labour support, even with her own rebels. And staying in the CU would be much less of a disaster than anything she has proposed so far.

Would take a major u-turn from her, but you never know... She always does what is best for her.

Sam Russell

kuro68k wrote: »

Should could get a majority with Labour support, even with her own rebels. And staying in the CU would be much less of a disaster than anything she has proposed so far.

Would take a major u-turn from her, but you never know... She always does what is best for her.

NI border also needs SM as well, or at least as far as it affects NS business and the GFA.

Imreoir2

kuro68k wrote: »

Should could get a majority with Labour support, even with her own rebels. And staying in the CU would be much less of a disaster than anything she has proposed so far.

Would take a major u-turn from her, but you never know... She always does what is best for her.

The issue is that the UK would still have to agree the backstop. Even if the PM was happy to commit to staying in the CU, the future trading relationship is not whats on the table now. That, if we ever get to it, is business for two years time. The Withdrawl Treaty is whats on the table now, no way Ireland or the EU drops the requirement for the backstop on the basis of a political declaration that the UK will stay in the CU.

Leroy42

And now we start to see the real reasons behind Brexit (although anyone paying attention would already know this to be the case)

Theresa May tells US business leaders: 'Post-Brexit UK will offer lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20'

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/theresa-may-tells-us-business-leaders-postbrexit-uk-will-offer-lowest-rate-of-corporation-tax-in-the-g20-37357113.html

The above, along with the desire to cut regulations and standards, means that the workers will be the ones that are going to pay the price.

So jobs might stay, but they will be lower paid and have less protections.

Effectively, TM is saying that the UK will use lower CT rates to hope to cover up for the loss expected from Brexit.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

Effectively, TM is saying that the UK will use lower CT rates to hope to cover up for the loss expected from Brexit.

Without mentioning that they were free to set any rate of CT they liked while in the EU.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

Effectively, TM is saying that the UK will use lower CT rates to hope to cover up for the loss expected from Brexit.

Without mentioning that they were free to set any rate of CT they liked while in the EU.

Sam Russell

Story in the Guardian today:

EU steps up plans for no-deal Brexit as Labour stance alarms capitals

According to the leaked document the reality of a no-deal Brexit has also prompted the EU’s member states to go over the head of the European commission and assert their right to take a “political choices” on potential mini-deals with the UK to avoid the worst repercussions of such a scenario, including the grounding of flights between Britain and the EU.

The document says: “Contingency measures can only be triggered at a certain stage, and some political choices, eg as regards to the extent to which these measures should mitigate the effect of a disorderly withdrawal, will have to be made before the commission can provide possible answers.”

Not sure if this is more 'lost in translation' again.

EdgeCase

I think unless you see a grand coalition of centrist MPs on the Tory and Labour benches, possibly supported even by the SNP, it's going to be a chaotic Brexit.

There's a class and tribal politics in the UK that's really not replicated here at all. A large % of Tories simply would not countenance enabling Labour and the same goes the other way around too.

In Ireland, if push came to shove, most parties would probably be capable of cooperating, despite the rhetoric, it's a far more chilled-out mature old proportional democracy whereas the UK is "us vs them".

There's no real equivalent of 'donning the green jersey' and then you have the Brexiteers already kicking off a campaign and rallies to support a hard Brexit, so I really can't see things chaining.

I predict chaos and then Corbynism and then maybe a deal but only after they've left and had the chaos.

The translation of the quote above from the Guardian is basically that the European Commission has probably got a load of contingencies for various chaotic outcomes and they don't want to put them into action or publish them yet, as it may cause market panic and they will have to run them past the Council of Minister / Council of the European Union and the EP. You can be damn sure they're a lot more prepared than the UK is though.

Water John

Remember, the multi seat constituency and also representing your local area with politicians of other parties meant, since the civil war, politicians of different parties, people who may have fought one another in the civil war, learned to cooperate together to achieve results.
Such interaction does not take place in the UK system.
However, Corbyn has made an offer. TM may end up having to swallow her pride and taking it.

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

And now we start to see the real reasons behind Brexit (although anyone paying attention would already know this to be the case)

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/theresa-may-tells-us-business-leaders-postbrexit-uk-will-offer-lowest-rate-of-corporation-tax-in-the-g20-37357113.html

The above, along with the desire to cut regulations and standards, means that the workers will be the ones that are going to pay the price.

So jobs might stay, but they will be lower paid and have less protections.

Effectively, TM is saying that the UK will use lower CT rates to hope to cover up for the loss expected from Brexit.

So basically the USA mark two

Two entrenched parties.

Diminishing standards and regulations

Huge powerful dark funded lobbyists

And workers with 3 jobs to pay their rent as housing is for the wealthy.

Water John

When you view others as lesser, then you invariably end up with a race to the bottom for the majority, as they really don't count except as economic and voting fodder, and the elite moving into further richland.

flutered

Winters wrote: »

Labour Leave MP Kate Hoey has claimed that the reason so many young people are anti-Brexit is because they have been “indoctrinated” by their university lecturers.

An incredible statement from Kate Hoey. Damn education..

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/kate-hoey-makes-bizarre-claim-at-labour-leave-event-at-party-conference-1-5710527

waqs there not a mention at the labour conference earlier this week, that the way to defeat brexit was thro education

Capt'n Midnight

Seth Brundle wrote: »

FF are still remembered by many as the ones who ruined the economy. They gradually are making a comeback (:( ) but by forcing a GE now would drop them back into the abyss (hopefully).

The "I can't believe it's not FF" candidate Gallagher is getting 16% in the Presidential Polls. Back in the day

So a long way from being rehabilitated. Also forcing a GE when Brexit is so close isn't a vote winner. Especially when the presidential election is highlighting expenses in an attempt to sling mud. GE's aren't cheap.

Besides if there was an election what choices would FF have ?
Would FG go into power with them ?
Would they go with SF ?
What would they have to promise independents ?


Right now FF are close enough to claim credit if things go well with Brexit and far enough to distance themselves if it doesn't. Now is the time to regroup.

J Mysterio

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The "I can't believe it's not FF" candidate Gallagher is getting 16% in the Presidential Polls.

Most people are happy with Higgins.

An Ciarraioch

The UK now has a Minister for Food Supplies - if I remember my secondary school history correctly, didn't Lemass hold a similar title during the Emergency?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/26/uk-appoints-food-supplies-minister-amid-fears-of-no-deal-brexit

McGiver

Leroy42 wrote:

The above, along with the desire to cut regulations and standards, means that the workers will be the ones that are going to pay the price.

I've been telling since day one that Brexit is a neo-con fascist coup d'état orchestrated by the who knows whom and played by puppets Johnson, Gove, Davis and May. They are only puppets an incompetent ones. But for the objective to be achieved it's sufficient these puppets do nothing. The end state is a hard Brexit, subsequent deregulation, deconstruction of welfare state and privatisation of health care and other public services (think prisons for example) resulting in total subjugation of the working class, essentially forever. A parallel would be Reaganism, the social effects of which are felt even now and are practically irreversible.

Any sane social democrat must see this and oppose this at all costs because any kind of Brexit may ultimately lead to this scenario. The risk of Brexit ending like this is quite high and no one should underestimate it. The fact that Corbyn et all don't, makes no sense whatsoever. And yes, he is a social democrat not Socialist, it's just English politics has shifted since Thatcher so much to the right that European type of Social democracy is considered Socialist in the UK. It was similar with Sanders in the US.

Hurrache

Either keeping her cards close to her chest because the plan is unpalatable, or she's just going to try force someone's hand and crash out if it doesn't work. There's a thread attached to the tweet of the main talking points.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1045042498425565185?s=19

swampgas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's a mirror image of what is happening in the Tory party and is a result of FPTP. Apart from the regions (NI, Wales, Scotland) pulling at the threads, Brexit is exposing the differences between the various wings of each party. For the Tories, it's the centrist One Nation Tories versus the Little Englanders. For Labour it's the Blairites versus Momentum.

The British weren't always wedded to FPTP.

In fact the British had a large role in creating STV and spreading it round the world. Ireland has it because the British insisted on it being used, as a way to protect minorities after Home Rule / independence.

Fianna Fáil tried to drag us back to FPTP twice, but the referendums were rejected by the people both times.

In fact the House of Commons voted 5 times to introduce STV to the UK, and each time the (unelected) House of Lords rejected it, to the point that they gave up on ever getting it introduced.

If the Brexiteers are worried about a democratic deficit, they should start looking a little closer to home.

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_and_use_of_the_single_transferable_vote

Nody

Hurrache wrote: »

Either keeping her cards close to her chest because the plan is unpalatable, or she's just going to try force someone's hand and crash out if it doesn't work.

Well the Independent had a good qoute from the usual secret Brussel source to that which really sums things up.

The EU does not really see this as a negotiation: one clued-up Brussels observer described the EU’s approach to me as Britain’s “managed capitulation”. It summarises the situation well: for progress to be made Ms May would have to accept that Chequers is dead – as everyone in Brussels already sees it.

But there seems to be no sign of that happening. The prime minister said it was unacceptable for the EU to reject her plan without offering a counter-offer, but the response in Brussels is simple: “Or what?”

Achernar

McGiver wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote:

The above, along with the desire to cut regulations and standards, means that the workers will be the ones that are going to pay the price.

I've been telling since day one that Brexit is a neo-con fascist coup d'état orchestrated by the who knows whom and played by puppets Johnson, Gove, Davis and May. They are only puppets an incompetent ones. But for the objective to be achieved it's sufficient these puppets do nothing. The end state is a hard Brexit, subsequent deregulation, deconstruction of welfare state and privatisation of health care and other public services (think prisons for example) resulting in total subjugation of the working class, essentially forever. A  parallel would be Reaganism, the social effects of which are felt even now and are practically irreversible.

Any sane social democrat must see this and oppose this at all costs because any kind of Brexit may ultimately lead to this scenario. The risk of Brexit ending like this is quite high and no one should underestimate it. The fact that Corbyn et all doesn't makes no sense whatsoever. And yes, he is a social democrat not Socialist, it's just English politics has shifted since Thatcher so much to the right that European type of Social democracy is considered Socialist in the UK. It was similar with Sanders in the US.

This is exactly right.

J Mysterio

Corbyn is some waster. Labour are apparently clamouring for a second referendum (this seemingly came from nowhere? 70%?), so to avoid going down that route, he has instead offered his support to May for a 'sensible Brexit'.

I mean.... Really?

This has apparently gone down well at conference. Offering support to that shambles of a government in spite of their interminable series of screw ups. Does he/ anyone actually think May is capable of delivering a 'sensible Brexit'? That they are deserving of support based on their record in this most serious of negotations? And this is fine.

Any Labour leader worth his salt would have torn this government to shreds long, long ago, and pushed for a GE. But Corbyn wants Brexit. He is happy for it all to go to pot and then play the messiah.

J Mysterio

McGiver wrote: »

I've been telling since day one that Brexit is a neo-con fascist coup d'état orchestrated by the who knows whom and played by puppets Johnson, Gove, Davis and May. They are only puppets an incompetent ones. But for the objective to be achieved it's sufficient these puppets do nothing. The end state is a hard Brexit, subsequent deregulation, deconstruction of welfare state and privatisation of health care and other public services (think prisons for example) resulting in total subjugation of the working class, essentially forever. A parallel would be Reaganism, the social effects of which are felt even now and are practically irreversible.

Any sane social democrat must see this and oppose this at all costs because any kind of Brexit may ultimately lead to this scenario. The risk of Brexit ending like this is quite high and no one should underestimate it. The fact that Corbyn et all doesn't makes no sense whatsoever. And yes, he is a social democrat not Socialist, it's just English politics has shifted since Thatcher so much to the right that European type of Social democracy is considered Socialist in the UK. It was similar with Sanders in the US.

This would assume that the Tories can stay in government after destroying the country. All signs point to Corbyn being the saviour.

I don't neccesarily discount your theory though in terms of some will definitely seek to take advantage from this, what is effectively a textbook disaster scenario from The Shock Doctrine playbook.

cml387

McGiver wrote: »

The fact that Corbyn et all doesn't makes no sense whatsoever. And yes, he is a social democrat not Socialist, it's just English politics has shifted since Thatcher so much to the right that European type of Social democracy is considered Socialist in the UK. It was similar with Sanders in the US.

It makes perfect sense if you look at Labour history:

Wouldn't join European Coal and Steel in 1946
Opposed Macmillan's attempts to join in 1962
Opposed Heath's successful negotiation of EU accession in 1973
Promised (and held) a referendum (hah!) on membership in 1975 and allowed misinsiters to campaign for and against.

Anti EU sentiment runs through the Labour party like Methodism and Clause 4.

Capt'n Midnight

Comments from Slugger
Theresa May’s defence of “the precious, precious Union” takes centre stage

It's like some ghastly parody of Weekend at Bernie's, with Theresa May dragging the bloated corpse of Chequers around the world and pretending to all and sundry that it's alive and well. It's quite the spectacle.

It's a big river in Egypt.

Norway might be possible, but it's BINO and it's not cheaper and there's no real advantage. And lots of disadvantages.

The backstop may place the north in the departure lounge of the Union, but if implemented it could prove a big enough fudge that the majority of the north's population could be satisfied. We'd end up like Tom Hanks in 'The Terminal', ready to leave at a moment's notice but taking an incredibly long time to actually do so, if ever.

Right now there's not that much difference either side of the border, and if there is you can cross it. It has become a minor issue.