Brexit discussion thread IV

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, a no-deal Brexit would apparently see a flotilla of barges carrying generators shipped to Norn Iron, because of the danger to the single electricity market:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/11/whitehalls-potty-plan-to-keep-ni-lights-on-if-no-brexit-deal

WTF ?

Would it not be would be cheaper to mothball Kilroot and Ballylumford for a few months next year ?

briany

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, a no-deal Brexit would apparently see a flotilla of barges carrying generators shipped to Norn Iron, because of the danger to the single electricity market:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/11/whitehalls-potty-plan-to-keep-ni-lights-on-if-no-brexit-deal

Not to downplay the seriousness of a no-deal, but the amount of bad things that will happen in the event are starting to meld into one big abstract collage. I don't think the average Brexiteer is interested in what might happen until it happens. A bit like showing a teenager who's just started smoking a picture of a cancerous lung, telling them that they're more likely to go blind in old age, and that they probably won't even live to old age, the warnings can fall on deaf ears. What the Remain campaign has been unable to do so far is explain to Brexit voters how their lives will become unlivable if the UK crashes out of the EU.

Then again, I suppose that even if this could be done, so many Brexit voters would just blame it on political ineptitude and intractability rather than how right or wrong it was to vote for Brexit in the first place.

VinLieger

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, a no-deal Brexit would apparently see a flotilla of barges carrying generators shipped to Norn Iron, because of the danger to the single electricity market:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/11/whitehalls-potty-plan-to-keep-ni-lights-on-if-no-brexit-deal

Jesus, is there any thought to what the long term solution is and how long would it take implement. How long will NI have to run off barges?

Akrasia

briany wrote: »

You do wonder why, at some point, May doesn't just say 'sod this!', write a conciliatory about being unable to unite the party, but God save the Queen and all that and head back into private life, laying low for a few years.

Mogg has even less of a chance of uniting the party. He's more of an ideologue than May, so I fail to see how his hard line won't prompt a rebellion in the other direction. He does have the dead man's switch of simply missing the deadline and allowing the country to slide into no deal - a situation he maintains is more agreeable than some other alternatives. However, having the preside over the potential ensuing chaos will soon take much of the shine off of the smooth-talking 'Moggster'.

Where's Spitting Image when you need it?

Because she has absolutely no legacy?

She doesn't want to go down as the weakest PM in British History?

Trasna1

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

WTF ?

Would it not be would be cheaper to mothball Kilroot and Ballylumford for a few months next year ?

?
Why would you mothball facilities when you don't have enough generation capacity. That would just compound the problem.

Capt'n Midnight

Trasna1 wrote: »

?
Why would you mothball facilities when you don't have enough generation capacity. That would just compound the problem.

Because of the single market.


The UK wants to trade goods and services freely in the EU, doesn't want a border in Ireland, but has a problem with the Single Electricity Market on this island, that they signed up to ? Yeah. That's Brexit.

Trasna1

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Because of the single market.


The UK wants to trade goods and services freely in the EU, doesn't want a border in Ireland, but has a problem with the Single Electricity Market on this island, that they signed up to ? Yeah. That's Brexit.

I'm sorry but I still don't understand how closing two major power stations in NI prevents electricity rationing in an event of the destruction of the all island electricity market.

In the event of a hard Brexit the circuit breakers which connect the republic to NI will be thrown open. NI will have to produce enough on it's own and/or import over Moyle IC

EdgeCase

I can’t see the circuit breakers being thrown open, but I would probably say you’d see the costs going up, weaker £, tariffs etc etc

Given that ESB owns NIE and various energy companies operate on an all island basis, it will have to be worked around.

I can’t seriously see a scenario where the circuit breakers are thrown and NI is plunged into darkness.

Imreoir2

It's easy to say "I can't see it hapening", obviously no one want's it to. But when the legal framework for something evaoprates, the thing stops. This is true of the all island eletricity market, pilots licences, trade, and a host of other vital and everyday operations that are the bedrock of everyday life.

J Mysterio

Im really interested to see how things are going to go down with Gibraltar. The Spanish have said that they cannot continue as part of the EU, no matter the Brexit outcome. But if they're not part of the EU, they will be destroyed. There are only around 20k people on the damn peninsula. It will be effectively a blockade untill such a time as they recognise they cannot continue.

The Spanish are particularly strong against Gibraltar. They harass their vessels if they stray outside of 'UK waters' (a patch of sea surrounded by Spanish controlled water). Equally, the Gibraltararians have been very strong in their equivocations around the Spanish entering their space. These are skirmishes which have been going on - on a small scale - for some time, and are quite aggravating for those involved.

The Spanish are, and will continue to be quite strong on this point.

The time is gone where the British will threaten to go to war over the remnants of empire as they once did with the Malvinas (for British people, read 'the Falklands', motto: "Desire the Right"). At least in current circumstances where they cannot afford to make any more enemies.

TomOnBoard

J Mysterio wrote: »

Im really interested to see how things are going to go down with Gibraltar. The Spanish have said that they cannot continue as part of the EU, no matter the Brexit outcome. But if they're not part of the EU, they will be destroyed. There are only around 20k people on the damn peninsula. It will be effectively a blockade untill such a time as they recognise they cannot continue.

The Spanish are particularly strong against Gibraltar. They harass their vessels if they stray outside of 'UK waters' (a patch of sea surrounded by Spanish controlled water). Equally, the Gibraltararians have been very strong in their equivocations around the Spanish entering their space. These are skirmishes which have been going on - on a small scale - for some time, and are quite aggravating for those involved.

The Spanish are, and will continue to be quite strong on this point.

The time is gone where the British will threaten to go to war over the remnants of empire as they once did with the Malvinas (for British people, read 'the Falklands', motto: "Desire the Right"). At least in current circumstances where they cannot afford to make any more enemies.

I haven't heard of any mention of Gibraltar in the reports around the negotiations and it will certainly be interesting to watch. Given that they voted 96% to remain in the EU, and as they are not part of the UK, it will be a highly symbolic vestige of Empire that JRM and his ilk will find it very difficult to explain in terms of hardening Brexit.

NIMAN

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, a no-deal Brexit would apparently see a flotilla of barges carrying generators shipped to Norn Iron, because of the danger to the single electricity market:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/11/whitehalls-potty-plan-to-keep-ni-lights-on-if-no-brexit-deal

I'm calling BS on this one.

There is no way the lights are going to be switched out on NI if there isn't a deal. Think about it logically, are they going to take away power from hospitals, schools, homes, etc?

Of course they aren't, something would be worked out.

And anyway, surely if a product like electricity is supplied on an all-Ireland basis, borders don't come into it? electricity doesn't need to be inspected at the border ffs.

Leroy42

People keep saying that something will be worked out but the likes of JRM seem to be totally set against anything being worked out.

They fully believe in a no deal. That implies nothing being worked out.

Infini

Leroy42 wrote: »

People keep saying that something will be worked out but the likes of JRM seem to be totally set against anything being worked out.

They fully believe in a no deal. That implies nothing being worked out.

There's only a decent chance of a no deal right now. That being said the pragmatists and the saner parts of the government know the chaos of a no deal and are likely trying to push the idiotic Bullshyteers outta the way. What's a joke is that its been allowed to last so long but the saner elements need to start being far more assertive and facing down these fools by making clear the consequences of a no deal arent fearmongering but a matter of fact and if the fools have no viable alternative then they put up and shut up.

Panrich

Infini wrote: »

There's only a decent chance of a no deal right now. That being said the pragmatists and the saner parts of the government know the chaos of a no deal and are likely trying to push the idiotic Bullshyteers outta the way. What's a joke is that its been allowed to last so long but the saner elements need to start being far more assertive and facing down these fools by making clear the consequences of a no deal arent fearmongering but a matter of fact and if the fools have no viable alternative then they put up and shut up.

The big problem is that the consequences are not being outlined properly and the media is complicit in this. You can expect the rags like the Express and Mail to ignore the calamities of no deal but the BBC is in dereliction if it’s duties.

Corbyn is also doing his country a disservice by ignoring the no deal consequences and just nibbling around the edges of the issue. Any self respecting opposition leader should be a hero to remainers at this stage of the fiasco.

The upshot of all this ignoring of the no deal elephant is the UK is sleepwalking to a potential disaster scenario.

VinLieger

NIMAN wrote: »

I'm calling BS on this one.

There is no way the lights are going to be switched out on NI if there isn't a deal. Think about it logically, are they going to take away power from hospitals, schools, homes, etc?

Of course they aren't, something would be worked out.

And anyway, surely if a product like electricity is supplied on an all-Ireland basis, borders don't come into it? electricity doesn't need to be inspected at the border ffs.

If hard brexit happens the GFA is likely also then torn up so any agreements based on the GFA like the all ireland electricity market are also similarly gone too, therefore theres no agreement to continue sending them electricity which means we need to stop, not because were being d1cks or anything, but because that's how international agreements between 2 different countries work.

Also the lights wont be switched off they will have electricity, just not enough, hospitals and other critical services will obviously prioritised for what they will have.

The attitude that "something will be worked out" is pretty naive considering the current situation regarding food potentially rotting on trucks in the result of a hard brexit. They have not started planning for how to process any imports in the case of that eventuality which they should have been starting this time last year. Weve been hiring for a year to deal with it as well as getting infrastructure in place along with most of the other countries that have ports that sail to the UK. So far the UK have done nothing for this.

Electricity you can get by without its food that will be the real issue come a hard brexit. Look what happened after a week of snow.

Zubeneschamali

NIMAN wrote: »

There is no way the lights are going to be switched out on NI if there isn't a deal. Think about it logically, are they going to take away power from hospitals, schools, homes, etc?

Of course they aren't, something would be worked out.

Yes, of course, and this something would be what we call a deal.

But there is no sign of that deal actually being made.

The no-deal catastrophe with the lights out and the planes grounded and the port at Dover closed happens on April 1st unless this deal is ready for approval in October, and the UK Government are planning to publish their opening position paper on that deal... today.

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, of course, and this something would be what we call a deal.

But there is no sign of that deal actually being made.

The no-deal catastrophe with the lights out and the planes grounded and the port at Dover closed happens on April 1st unless this deal is ready for approval in October, and the UK Government are planning to publish their opening position paper on that deal... today.

It's apparently been extended to December.

Silent Running

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I haven't heard of any mention of Gibraltar in the reports around the negotiations and it will certainly be interesting to watch. Given that they voted 96% to remain in the EU, and as they are not part of the UK, it will be a highly symbolic vestige of Empire that JRM and his ilk will find it very difficult to explain in terms of hardening Brexit.

Gibraltar is more than symbolic. There is a strong military presence on (and in) the rock. It's a foothold and an airfield in the Mediterranean and an outpost at the very southern tip of Europe.

The Spanish would love to have it and would go to extremes to bring that about. It's not that long ago that the border was sealed between Spain and Gibraltar. It wouldn't be beyond possibility that it would be closed again. The Madrid government don't really care that a large percentage of the people of La Linea earn their crust on The Rock. The prize is worth the cost.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

It's apparently been extended to December.

I really don't think so.

The only way they could still be talking in December about a deal that comes into effect in March is if the deal is that nothing happens in March. Nothing at all.

There simply wouldn't be time for 27+ parliaments to ratify anything more complicated.

trellheim

It's apparently been extended to December.

There has been no request on either side for an A50 extension , unless I am missing something ? May stood up last week and said end of March.

Sam Russell

Silent Running wrote: »

Gibraltar is more than symbolic. There is a strong military presence on (and in) the rock. It's a foothold and an airfield in the Mediterranean and an outpost at the very southern tip of Europe.

The Spanish would love to have it and would go to extremes to bring that about. It's not that long ago that the border was sealed between Spain and Gibraltar. It wouldn't be beyond possibility that it would be closed again. The Madrid government don't really care that a large percentage of the people of La Linea earn their crust on The Rock. The prize is worth the cost.

I remember that last year, that right wing Brexiteer Redwood threatening Spain with all out war over Gibraltar, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/britain-and-eu-worse-off-without-brexit-deal-says-michael-fallonalong with Michael Howard.


I do not think Spain need worry too much as I doubt they would stand alone over Gibraltar.

Besides, what would the UK do without their Spanish food imports?

Silent Running

Sam Russell wrote: »

I remember that last year, that right wing Brexiteer Redwood threatening Spain with all out war over Gibraltar, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/britain-and-eu-worse-off-without-brexit-deal-says-michael-fallonalong with Michael Howard.


I do not think Spain need worry too much as I doubt they would stand alone over Gibraltar.

Besides, what would the UK do without their Spanish food imports?

Yep, I remember laughing at the thought of the UK going to war with Europe over Gib.

It's still an important asset to the UK, and Spain have always been very serious about getting their hands on it. That means that it's another fair sized wrinkle that needs to be ironed out in the Brexit deal, and it hasn't really been talked about, that I'm aware of.

Sam Russell

Silent Running wrote: »

Yep, I remember laughing at the thought of the UK going to war with Europe over Gib.

It's still an important asset to the UK, and Spain have always been very serious about getting their hands on it. That means that it's another fair sized wrinkle that needs to be ironed out in the Brexit deal, and it hasn't really been talked about, that I'm aware of.

I think that Spain will close the border and throw away the key until they get it back. The Gib lot will prefer the Spanish to the Brits if it costs them their livelihoods.

trellheim

There is a LOT of people who commute to work in the Rock from La Linea and Algeciras .... this is a very charged situation not dissimilar to NI

trellheim

and the leaking begins.... twitter beginning to heat up #howlongwillthewhitepaperlast

Silent Running

trellheim wrote: »

There is a LOT of people who commute to work in the Rock from La Linea and Algeciras .... this is a very charged situation not dissimilar to NI

Which is why I find it odd that it isn't seen as something to be included in the Chequers love-in.

There are a lot of UK ex-pats commuting to Gib from as far away as Estepona, San Pedro and even further. I know there is huge concern among this group over what might happen with Gib.

Zubeneschamali

From what I'm reading, it appears the White paper will simply be simply rejected by the EU.

Then we will be back to choosing Norway or Canada, with the clock ticking.

Leroy42

Silent Running wrote: »

Which is why I find it odd that it isn't seen as something to be included in the Chequers love-in.

There are a lot of UK ex-pats commuting to Gib from as far away as Estepona, San Pedro and even further. I know there is huge concern among this group over what might happen with Gib.

Because it doesn't involve the mainland. Simple. They hardly care about NI, why would any of them care one jot about Gibraltar.

It will just be sorted out is there expectation, no need to actually do something about it.

I do wonder will the likes of Kate Hoey etc be so quick to dismiss the concerns over Gib, when they finally getting around to thinking of it, as they were with NI.

Chequers was about PR, getting something out. It didn't cover the actual details - that might start to come out in the white paper but to be honest I'm not to expectant.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

From what I'm reading, it appears the White paper will simply be simply rejected by the EU.

Then we will be back to choosing Norway or Canada, with the clock ticking.

I will be surprised if it is rejected outright. The noises coming from the EU the last few days is that it is a basis for negotiation, that it signals the UK have reached a position and that is a start.

From the actual negotiations, I don't think it will make one jot of difference. The EU understand that possible rejection will see May forced to leave and thus they are faced with at best a delay due to another campaign and/or leadership contest and at worst the likes of JRM taking over with is never, never attitude.

trellheim

The NATO thing from trump will do the headlines I'd say today and this may come out to a fairly calm response

trellheim

JRM taking over with is never, never attitude.

It is great to be the hurler in the ditch !

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017353041354350593

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017338055211003904

Within 12 months, very likely to see a pro-Indy majority, given that starting point, unless it's the softest of Brexits.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017332933194145792

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017332233043152897

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017331360321720320

judeboy101

trellheim wrote: »

It is great to be the hurler in the ditch !

Id say he is glad he is RC, he'll never will hv to take charge and responsibility

trellheim

what catholic ? Tony Blairs a catholic

El Weirdo

trellheim wrote: »

what catholic ? Tony Blairs a catholic

AFAIR, he didn't convert to Catholicism until he'd already stepped down.

An Ciarraioch

El Weirdo wrote: »

AFAIR, he didn't convert to Catholicism until he'd already stepped down.

That said, unlike with the monarchy, there's no constitutional requirement for the PM to be an Anglican.

El Weirdo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

That said, unlike with the monarchy, there's no constitutional requirement for the PM to be an Anglican.

True, but doesn't the Prime Minister appoint Anglican Bishops? Would there possibly be an issue with a Catholic doing this?

Although, I think this conversation is moot - JRM won't be PM any time soon.

judeboy101

trellheim wrote: »

what catholic ? Tony Blairs a catholic

After he left office.

judeboy101

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

That said, unlike with the monarchy, there's no constitutional requirement for the PM to be an Anglican.

Catholics can't appoint non Catholics to positions in churches not in communion with Rome. Otherwise any catholic could create their own bishops, priests etc.

An Ciarraioch

Davis's Alternative White Paper - Part 1:

https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-the-alternative-brexit-white-paper-a-draft-from-dexeu-1-mutual-recognition-not-ongoing-harmonisation.html

And Part 2:

https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-2-agricultural-food-and-fish-products-outcome-equivalence.html

An Ciarraioch

Finally, interesting that even Tory writers are mulling East-West agricultural checks:

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/brexit-the-uk-ireland-border-farming-and-the-dup-an-answer-to-the-mad-riddle.html

Leroy42

I read the headline and stopped.

Mutual recognition and harmonisation. Feck sake. That argument has been put to bed ages ago and this is the big idea.

Take GDPR for example. Will the UK sign up or not, and if not what is the alternative and doesn't that impose additional costs to all business.

So they completely agree that standards, known and accepted, and inherent in any frictionless trade. Which they have at the moment. But they want to get out of that so that they can set up the same, but now totally separate regulations which just happen to have the same end point as the EU ones. And they are going to have to comply in the EU timelines.

This is what the voters voted for. Taking back control by massively increasing bureaucracy and costs?

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017353041354350593

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1017338055211003904

Within 12 months, very likely to see a pro-Indy majority, given that starting point, unless it's the softest of Brexits.

not much movement on the indie question really

An Ciarraioch

And the actual White Paper is out:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-relationship-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union?utm_source=e5b3260b-2069-4b57-a5bd-24e9ea02aa88&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

Panrich

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And the actual White Paper is out:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-relationship-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union?utm_source=e5b3260b-2069-4b57-a5bd-24e9ea02aa88&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

It reads as though written for a domestic audience rather than negotiating with the EU. It re-emphasises the UK red lines at every opportunity just in case anyone might forget.

Nody

trellheim wrote: »

There is a LOT of people who commute to work in the Rock from La Linea and Algeciras .... this is a very charged situation not dissimilar to NI

And a lot of those works are dependent on Gibraltar being part of EU; once that goes...

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1017382871466733569

Imreoir2

White paper stresses that the backstop wont need to be used, might indicate that the UK is preparing to accept the supposedly unacceptable and agree a backstop that would keep NI in the Single Market and Customs Union on the basis that the backstop will never be needed anyway.