Brexit discussion thread IV

Hurrache

It's a cliche, but it's because Ulster says no.

fly_agaric

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Does it though? Even without the GFA consistent polls showing a majority of people wanting Irish unification would signal the beginning of the end of NI. What would be Britain's excuse for denying it?

Because they can? They don't need any "excuse".
If govt./parliament does not give the OK I don't think there can be any vote
The current Conservative party are a bunch of crack-pot extremists of the opinion its either their way or the highway.
They are also smart enough to learn from what happened to Cameron.
They are not going to give people in NI (or Scotland) a chance to vote on anything important if they hold power, no matter what squeals of protest are raised after Brexit.

J Mysterio

mayo.mick wrote: »

What the hell are they putting in the water over there? Its getting madder!

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1046734191101018112

Owen Paterson, formerly secretary of state for Northern Ireland, says the Irish border is easily solvable. "There is a security border. There's no hard border. With modern technology you don't need it."

Says it's a "shame" the Irish border "has become a real issue." "This is soluble today with existing technologies," he says.

swampgas

I don't see any way that a compromise can be found. Theresa May and her government are ratcheting up the rhetoric, and because she has so many red lines, nothing short of total EU capitulation will satisfy her. She has staked her reputation on making Chequers work, and I think she will take it to the wire in an insane attempt to make the EU blink.

Somebody is going to lose, and lose badly, in the next few months. And I'm pretty sure it isn't going to be the the EU as a whole.

It's depressing. I'm already making arrangements to get my aged father-in-law out of the UK to stay with us in Ireland before March, because we simply don't know what might happen.

Jesus, what a sh*tshow.

J Mysterio

Infini wrote: »

I don't know if it will truly go back to the bad ol days but the fact is that if the conservatives and their DUP friends collapse what ended dacades of troubles for their own political bull then there would be quite a few unhappy about this. People dragged out of the EU, hit in the pocket, losing rights, forced into a recession/depression, having unwanted borders put up and all to satisfy the DUP idiots and the little englanders braindead mentality of brexit will certainly not end well unless the people of NI get a say in this expecially since a Majority voted to stay. If its a border poll as the price then thats what has to happen.

As the Right Honourable Mr Pound said, when there is border infrastructure, there is a target. When there is a target, it needs to be policed. Once there are are soldiers etc manning the border and patrolling about... We are quickly back to a sticky situation.

Junkyard Tom

wexie wrote: »

are there really still people out there that would use it as an excuse to go back to the bad/good old days?

Remember that the DUP hated the GFA and did their best to crash it. The DUP were essentially forced into power-sharing and since Paisley Snr was ousted they have not been acting in the spirit of the agreement.

I have little doubt there is an element within Unionism who'd prefer the Troubles to having SF in Stormont and would like to see a reversal of the soft unification that has been facilitated by the removal of the border.

Enzokk wrote: »

the GFA ... for nationalists it keeps the border open to Ireland so they can pretend that they are still Irish and not British.

Pretend they are Irish?

Imreoir2

wexie wrote: »

Without wanting to derail the thread (too much)....what would the consequences of bringing down the GFA be, realistically, at this stage.

I certainly have a fair understanding of what a border might entail economically but I'm really curious about this, are there really still people out there that would use it as an excuse to go back to the bad/good old days?

In short, yes there are.

Sinn Féin and the Provisional IRA are unlikely to go back to war, but it will firmly collapse the peace process, resulting in direct rule and and end to the progress that has been made through power shareing. It would rob the status quo of legitimacy and over the medium term could easily result in a trend back to civil disorder and violence, even if not quite to the levels of the early 70's.

Capt'n Midnight

Rhineshark wrote: »

Why are the DUP freaking out about this? This is not going to fly with the EU - they want the whole UK to stay in the CU but have limited *goods checks* in the sea.

Am I missing something or is this nonsense? The lack of SM probably makes it irrelevant anyway.

It was never an option. It's advanced cakeism.

If the EU allowed the UK that they'd also have to allow it to everyone with a similar deal. I don't know if that means that the Swiss get to block free movement or Canada and South Korea get carte blanche access to the common market or Turkey gets to set rules within the EU. Or all of the above depending on which Tory fantasy of the week is used. But whichever it implies is a huge financial cost to the EU.


NI has 2.75% of the UK population, and if you exclude the nationalists who can pretend they live in Ireland because the border is so soft then Unionists are 1.5% of the UK population. You can slice and dice it as west of the Bann or as too far from the border to benefit to get similar numbers.

Infini

swampgas wrote: »

I don't see any way that a compromise can be found. Theresa May and her government are ratcheting up the rhetoric, and because she has so many red lines, nothing short of total EU capitulation will satisfy her. She has staked her reputation on making Chequers work, and I think she will take it to the wire in an insane attempt to make the EU blink.

Somebody is going to lose, and lose badly, in the next few months. And I'm pretty sure it isn't going to be the the EU as a whole.

It's depressing. I'm already making arrangements to get my aged father-in-law out of the UK to stay with us in Ireland before March, because we simply don't know what might happen.

Jesus, what a sh*tshow.

I'll be honest the caliber of politicians of the UK right expecially those in the conservative party right now are complete load of incompetent, miserable shítes and an utter disgrace. Many of them dont deserve or should be even there they have absolutely no interest in the common good. The fact that they couldn't care less that it could end up a chaotic mess up the North disgust's me.

I honestly think that beyond some of those that are utter and complete idiots that some of those that are all for Brexit are purely in it for their own self interest and are intent on profiting on the ruination of their country for their own personal benefit. Personally some of them if it turns out to be true would probably deserve to be shot as any who are willing to destroy their own country and inflict misery on their own people purely to profit for their own benefit should never be allowed near a position of power.

I honestly feel for you having to get your relative out of the UK, I got a relative of my own living there and wonder if they'll try getting out of the place if it all goes to shít. The UK will end up a far more miserable and depressing place because of this whole fiasco.

I honestly think despite all the pleasantries the EU should this time play hardball with the UK. Their politicians have pretty much admitted they don't think they can be beholden to agreements with other countries. They should be made to understand in plain English that quite simply either they agree to this or they get absolutely NO agreement of any kind with the EU whatsoever come Brexit day. Make it clear that unless IRELAND agree's as well that if they don't agree to the whole backstop their only other option is to allow a Border Poll for the North since they didnt vote for this and the Dumbáss Unionist Party doesnt speak for all of NI. People up there deserve better than to be thrown under the bus just to satisfy the stupidity of that Party.

Enzokk

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Pretend they are Irish?

That was a very idiotic thing of me to do...not thinking before I post. I mean they can imagine they are in a united Ireland because there is no borders or checks to be done. That was completely wrong of me.:o

Edit: I meant they can pretend they are in a united Ireland, I think I got there eventually.

Capt'n Midnight

Hurrache wrote: »

It's a cliche, but it's because Ulster says no.

The irony is that SF were anti-EU since before we joined and during all the referendums. Until this one.

So under slightly different circumstances it could have been the usual SF anti-EU and the DUP being anti SF.


But it appears that someone dangled a golden carrot in front of the DUP and so they ran Brexit ads in the Metro newspaper in England funded by those whose identity is hidden behind NI laws.

And if remain had won then the DUP would have been off the hook. They'd have beaten the drum , protected the union while maintaining the status quo.

Anthracite

Spook_ie wrote: »

Though his comparison to Soviet Union Prisons is offensive, I interpret his meaning as likely to mean that the EU is a cage, maybe a gilded cage but still a cage.

A gilded cage they'd like to leave, but bring the actual gold with them. :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

This is quite a big move. The backstop also would NOT be time limited (a key EU/Irish demand)


But it will enrage Brexiteers and the DUP.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2/PPMtd5apoGaRu0mFJYG4EQ/https/d2kmm3vx031a1h.cloudfront.net/XLBjNnFQQ0y0EL1IJ0XC_times.JPG

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is quite a big move. The backstop also would NOT be time limited (a key EU/Irish demand)


But it will enrage Brexiteers and the DUP.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2/PPMtd5apoGaRu0mFJYG4EQ/https/d2kmm3vx031a1h.cloudfront.net/XLBjNnFQQ0y0EL1IJ0XC_times.JPG

We were honestly already here in December when Agony Arlene kicked up a stink about it. That is unless May as put a gun to the DUP and told em accept or be left at the mercg of Corbyn.

Christy42

J Mysterio wrote: »

mayo.mick wrote: »

What the hell are they putting in the water over there? Its getting madder!

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1046734191101018112

Owen Paterson, formerly secretary of state for Northern Ireland, says the Irish border is easily solvable. "There is a security border. There's no hard border. With modern technology you don't need it."

Says it's a "shame" the Irish border "has become a real issue." "This is soluble today with existing technologies," he says.

Somehow they never mention what company has done the initial analysis on cost/feasibility/ downsides.
They have several months so it is either done or they are talking out their hole.

I get it is the second one but it bugs me that no one ever follows up that line of questioning.

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is quite a big move. The backstop also would NOT be time limited (a key EU/Irish demand)


But it will enrage Brexiteers and the DUP.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2/PPMtd5apoGaRu0mFJYG4EQ/https/d2kmm3vx031a1h.cloudfront.net/XLBjNnFQQ0y0EL1IJ0XC_times.JPG

It's not a move at all.

The problem with the backstop is the UK would like to stay in the CU rent free.
There is also the problem that the UK might chance changing the rules a little bit .

Just not worth the hassle, and remember the Swiss would freak out if their deals get delayed even further. The UK can't get a better deal than them because of Most Favoured Nation rules.

wexie

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I have little doubt there is an element within Unionism who'd prefer the Troubles to having SF in Stormont and would like to see a reversal of the soft unification that has been facilitated by the removal of the border.

I genuinely can't get into the mindset of people that think like that and see any benefits to it. Maybe it's because I didn't grow up here, but I think it's cause I'm not mad as a bag of spiders.

Christy42 wrote: »

Somehow they never mention what company has done the initial analysis on cost/feasibility/ downsides.

Excellent point, I have little doubt that something like that can be done with today's technologies.

Whether it's economically viable is something else altogether.

listermint

wexie wrote: »

I genuinely can't get into the mindset of people that think like that and see any benefits to it. Maybe it's because I didn't grow up here, but I think it's cause I'm not mad as a bag of spiders.



Excellent point, I have little doubt that something like that can be done with today's technologies.

Whether it's economically viable is something else altogether.

It can't. There is no Technological solutions for this type of border with the goods that cross it

It's pie in the sky fabrication

lawred2

wexie wrote: »

Excellent point, I have little doubt that something like that can be done with today's technologies.

Whether it's economically viable is something else altogether.

Little doubt? What's that based on?

briany

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Remember that the DUP hated the GFA and did their best to crash it. The DUP were essentially forced into power-sharing and since Paisley Snr was ousted they have not been acting in the spirit of the agreement.

I have little doubt there is an element within Unionism who'd prefer the Troubles to having SF in Stormont and would like to see a reversal of the soft unification that has been facilitated by the removal of the border.

The problem is that if you look at this from a neutral standpoint, you could just as easily suppose there is an element in Nationalism who want a border in the sea, and I think when you lob a border accusation at Unionists, or an element of Unionism, this is the response that comes back. The net result is that we get absolutely nowhere. Except maybe deepening mutual suspicion.

wexie

lawred2 wrote: »

wexie wrote: »

Excellent point, I have little doubt that something like that can be done with today's technologies.

Whether it's economically viable is something else altogether.

Little doubt? What's that based on?

I think perhaps I should clarify what I meant. I think if someone said that it might be possible with technology available today they would probably technically be correct.

That doesn't mean that I think it would be a workable and financially (or politically) viable solution.

Capt'n Midnight

lawred2 wrote: »

Little doubt? What's that based on?

https://i.imgur.com/IgLs36s.gif

This tech has been around for ages. And probably breaks loads of EU laws.
But the UK say they won't install more cameras. CBA looking up who said that because of the u-turns and reneging on future promises.

Rhineshark

The claws are coming out from Foster; https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/01/would-work-prime-minister-boris-johnson-says-dup-leader-praises/amp/

Also somehow Johnson taking the mick out of May just looks even more foolish.

ancapailldorcha

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://i.imgur.com/IgLs36s.gif

This tech has been around for ages. And probably breaks loads of EU laws.
But the UK say they won't install more cameras. CBA looking up who said that because of the u-turns and reneging on future promises.

That's actually terrifying. May was quite an authoritative Home Secretary and would likely have no qualms whatsoever with something like this.

Thargor

Ugh:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1046684542931816448

Infini

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's actually terrifying. May was quite an authoritative Home Secretary and would likely have no qualms whatsoever with something like this.

The sequel to 1984: 2084 Chinese Electric Bogalooo!

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1046875827030433793


The DUP bluff would seem to be about to be called.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1046875827030433793


The DUP bluff would seem to be about to be called.

It also might spell the end of the Tory party. Not a bad day's work.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1046875827030433793


The DUP bluff would seem to be about to be called.

Think it's long overdue at this point. DUP have punched far above their weight for too long, a hard dose of reality is needed and they can either put up or shut up. Bring down the government and thats it, they have no other card to play.

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

He is unpopular because he was in charge of the dismantling of the NHS. Just like Theresa May should be known for the Windrush scandal, Jeremy Hunt should take the blame for the collapse of the NHS. Talking of local policies, anyone else notice how little policies or talk of anything that would help people in their daily lives there has been at the conference so far? It seems like everything is around Brexit.

Rees Mogg has however weighed in and said that the Conservatives should start looking at improving people's lives after they have delivered Brexit. I do wonder how he thinks that will be possible after the effects of Brexit hits the country and the people. Maybe they should have thought about the people and how all of this effects their lives?

Conservative conference: Ruth Davidson calls for 'practical, pragmatic' Brexit - Politics live

His quotes are in the post that was posted at 14h18.

There wasn't a Tory who wouldn't have done the same with the NHS in my opinion. Hunt simply kept a low profile and got on with it. I wonder if he has the scent of May's blood in his nostrils and fancies himself in Number 10.

That quote from Rees-Mogg is just babble in my opinion. He's a fund manager who's just moved his business off from a sinking ship. His opinion, not mine since I'm still here whereas his business is not.